Texas’s final early vote (EV) was 7.4 million, with another 277K voting by mail.

The total percentage of registered voters who voted early was 40.7%.

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Attorney General Ken Paxton has been running a pretty lackluster campaign. Here he is, just this week, pulling his tour bus up to an almost empty airplane hangar in Beaumont.

Turns out that Paxton doesn’t need an audience in Beaumont when the lobbyists are getting personal invitations. All Paxton needs is a few people in Washington, DC, with clients. Emails obtained by Documented, a democracy watchdog group, show his fundraiser spent this fall asking for exactly that.

Between September 1 and October 30, Fundraising Inc. sent DC donors at least nine emails on Ken Paxton’s behalf. The September emails offered access to the sitting Texas Attorney General, right next to the ticket prices.

Every one of these emails is signed by Alexandra Kingston, the firm’s president. Paxton would be in DC on September 23 and 24, his last trip before the election. Kingston listed open half-hour slots for anyone with “clients or members who would like to sit down with AG Paxton.” Three fundraisers ran alongside the open time slots: a Texas delegation reception, an agriculture industry breakfast, and a reception at TSG Advocates. Tickets ran from $1,000 to $5,000.

After his DC trip, the language changed.

On October 6, Kingston offered phone and video calls with the sitting Texas Attorney General and US Senate candidate to anyone who could round up friends or colleagues. Bundlers were promised that every dollar would be tracked, plus a private event with Paxton in DC after the election.

The email was closed with, “Support given now will not be forgotten.”

Punchbowl News first reported the memo, and the Daily Beast followed, as a story about a campaign falling behind.

Over the course of these memos, the language went from “clients or members” to “friends or colleagues” to just “support given now will not be forgotten.”

People with clients are lobbyists, lawyers, and consultants whose clients may have business before the state’s top lawyer.

Who is doing the remembering?

Fundraising Inc. launched in 2021 as Axiom Strategies’ fundraising arm, with Alexandra Kingston as the president. Axiom is a Republican political consulting firm founded by Jeff Roe.

Paxton’s committees have paid Fundraising Inc. $134,478.93, according to Team Paxton and Paxton Victory FEC filings. That includes $9,048.53 for catering on September 23, the first day of the DC trip, and $10,062.05 for catering on October 6, the day “will not be forgotten” first went out.

The promises in these emails came from the campaign’s paid fundraiser, on the campaign’s dime.

Who paid after breakfast?

Nothing in these memos says what was discussed in those 30-minute time slots, but Team Paxton’s October quarterly report says who wrote the checks afterward. Six days after the “Paxton Agriculture Industry Fundraiser,” six agriculture PACs gave $21,000.

• US Peanut PAC

• Western Peanut Growers PAC

• PECAN PAC

• American Peanut Shellers Association PAC

• ARAPAC (Agricultural Retailers Association)

• USA Rice Federation PAC

What do US Senators vote on? Farm bills, trade deals, and the laws behind EPA and food safety regulations.

Donors that week also included people who list their jobs as lobbyists or in government affairs at NestPoint Associates, Woodside Energy, Origin Advocacy, EFB Advocacy, Covenant Government Affairs, and Williams & Jensen. Reince Priebus of Michael Best gave $3,500. So did CPAC chairman Matt Schlapp.

Who got credit?

Here’s how bundling works. A lobbyist calls ten clients, and each writes $5,000 instead of the lobbyist writing a check for $50,000. On a campaign’s public report, you see ten names, but you don’t see the lobbyist who collected them.

So, when Kingston said, “we will track every dollar,” she meant it’s like a running tab of who brought in the money, so the campaign knows who to thank later. It’s like a referral code for access to a United States Senator.

Congress decided that voters should see that tab, too. Once a lobbyist brings in more than $24,000, the campaign must file a separate report called Form 3L, naming the lobbyist and how much they raised. Under FEC rules, it counts the moment the campaign tracks what a lobbyist raised, or rewards them with access to an event. The emails from Kingston promised both.

As of publication, FEC records show no Form 3L from Paxton’s committees for the quarter covering his Washington trip. Money raised after October 14 shows up in the report due December 3. If lobbyists bundled for Paxton and no Form 3L appears, voters never learn whose support he promised not to forget.

Why it matters.

A sitting Attorney General, the top law enforcement officer in the second-largest state in the country, had his paid fundraiser offer Washington lobbyists half-hour meetings for their clients, keep a tab on who brought in the money, and promise that none of it would be forgotten.

That last part is the problem. Paxton doesn’t stop being Attorney General until January. If he wins, he goes to the Senate and votes on the farm bills and trade deals. If he loses, he stays in an office that investigates companies, sues them, settles with them, and hires private lawyers to do it for the rest of his term.

Either way, someone is keeping a list of promises due.

Tuesday is Election Day. This is the last chance.

Ken Paxton told us who he was for a decade. He was indicted for securities fraud, impeached by his own party’s House on bribery and corruption charges, and acquitted by a Senate full of his friends. Some people don’t change; they just get bigger offices.

Paxton couldn’t fill a hangar in Beaumont. Let’s make sure he can’t fill a Senate seat either. Find your polling place at VoteTexas.gov, bring your ID, and bring somebody with you.

Show up Tuesday. Make him remember that.

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• 3 days until the November election!

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

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🥂Lone Star Left’s 1,000th article!🥂

For a few months, I thought I’d stagger articles so that this day would land on Election Day. You know, symbiosis, or something like that. But in the end, I hate math, and it felt more appropriate to write a reflection (that nobody asked for), but I’m writing anyway because a milestone like this deserves a thank-you.

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One in four children in Texas regularly experience hunger. Roughly 1,000 Texans die every year without access to healthcare. 73% of Texas schools are underfunded. Texas’s tax system is the 7th most regressive in the country.

Yet, the Republican government has funneled tax dollars into the pockets of the wealthy with school vouchers and has put its focus…

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On Tuesday, the Republican Party of Potter County filed a lawsuit in Amarillo demanding that all of the ballots in Texas be hand-counted, because they’re worried that the polling machines that are not connected to the internet will be hacked by self-destructing, track-covering AI. Also, apparently some screws (or something) in the voting machine were ma…

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If you break a mirror, it’s seven years of bad luck. If you spill salt, you have to throw some over your left shoulder, or else you’ll receive bad news. If a black cat crosses your path, a witch is cursing you. And if you say “Holy shit, Texas is actually turning blue,” before election day, then every pollster adds four points to the Republican margins.

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According to , Republicans are preparing for a Southern Armageddon. He predicts the midterm blue wave will hit the Bible Belt and Great Plains hardest. His evidence combines Republican spending and Southern polling.

DeCalibrate

Republicans Are Preparing for Southern Armageddon

A couple months ago, it was novel to observe that a blue wave midterm had unambiguously arrived. Now, as we head into the final week of the campaign, that statement almost feels quaint. Democrats have been uncharacteristically confident, spending millions to contest targets as red as Mississippi. But if Democrats seem to expect a wave, Republicans seem …

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3 days ago · 58 likes · 4 comments · Ethan Chen

We’ve been watching these numbers all week, Texas’ turnout far exceeding previous cycles, and I’ve been saying, “It looks good for Democrat…

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We spent several days last week discussing how the Secretary of State wasn’t posting accurate numbers on their Early Voting website. This weekend, mainstream media picked up the story. Houston Chronicle reports that County officials have been blaming the TEAM system (their computer system), and the State has instructed them to correct the records manual…

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This morning, Steve Kornacki said that Democrats are spending money in Mississippi. If Democrats are actually making headway in Mississippi, then everything in Texas is at play.

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Earlier this year, followed me on Bluesky. It was a moment of true enlightenment. Then, this morning, when I saw his article, I knew that a blue Texas and the rest of the world had reached a true symbiosis.

Letters from God

Elon CRASHES OUT Over Talarico

Dear Humans…

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3 days ago · 1172 likes · 44 comments · God

Government-funded trillionaire Elon Musk has apparently spent the last few days in his cesspool, flipping out about James Talarico, which led Talar…

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Everyone says there is something in the air in Texas, and it’s more than your usual petrochemical haze. Until the night of November 3, we won’t know the real answer, but I wanted to explain why I think turnout is the biggest indicator among all the “signs” and “signals” politicos keep guessing at with Texas data.

Let’s start with our bellwether counties…

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I finally voted today. I went with my mother-in-law at 10 this morning in Tarrant County, and the line was still an hour long. But it’s done now.

Last night, the Secretary of State (SOS) dropped a heap of day two’s numbers onto its website. Not every county was showing up. Because I spent yesterday getting the early voting (EV) roster directly from coun…

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When Secretary of State (SOS) Jane Nelson resigned, Abbott appointed Robert Howden to lead us through the 2026 election. His qualifications include being Abbott’s former senior advisor.

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We now have polls closed for day two, but the Secretary of State still hasn’t completely reported on day one’s numbers.

When Democrats take control of the state, whenever that may be, we should push them to make the Secretary of State an elected position. Because, as Greg Abbott’s lapdog, there are too many questions and too much distrust. Even if Gina …

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A few weeks ago, we all had a good laugh at Tim Dunn Media crying about how they knew they were going to lose the election. But I pointed out that in that video, he encouraged all the foot soldiers to show up at the polls on Day 1 and Day 2, a seeming reversal of their previous stance that “early voting is cheating.”

So, before we get to the numbers and …

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Early voting starts tomorrow in Texas. Some of you may be jumping out of your skin and ready to cast your vote as soon as the polls open. I expect long lines everywhere, especially in Tarrant County, where so many polling locations were cut.

I usually try to vote at the end of the first week, or sometime during the second week, so the lines are shorter. Here are some “Special Tips for First-Time or Infrequent Voters.”

I’ll be watching the polls across the state tomorrow, and you should expect a full report from me late tomorrow on how the first day shook out in Texas. If it gets too late, it may be early Tuesday. We should expect the Secretary of State to be slower than each county’s election website, but not every county posts its early voting numbers. Stay tuned.

Before we spend the next two weeks deep in early voting in Texas, let’s look up from our own backyard for a moment. Control of Congress won’t be decided in Texas alone. And Talarico is only a small piece of the future possible Senate majority.

The US Senate.

Earlier this year, during the Michigan primary, I may have mentioned once or twice how much I liked Abdul El-Sayed, and hoped he won. And every clip I see of him continues to solidify those feelings.

El-Sayed has maintained a lead in Michigan polls. He is likely to win in MI. Early voting in MI starts on October 24. Two of his top priorities are money out of politics and Medicare for All. Secretly, I’m hoping he and James Talarico become besties.

Besides Talarico and El-Sayed, several other Senate races are happening across the country.

The race in Florida, unfortunately, is still “Likely R,” but the Democratic candidate, Angie Nixon, honestly should be polling much higher. Her priorities include Medicare for All and getting big money out of politics.

Florida Democrats have long shared some of the problems of Texas, being under-organized and completely ignored by the national apparatus. Nixon is being outraised by the Republican running, and I found no reporting of any DSCC or Senate Majority PAC ad money for Nixon. Most of her national support is coming from the progressive wing, like Bernie Sanders and Chris Murphy.

Did you know Iowa has only 3.1 million people? It’s kind of crazy that they get two Senators, while Texas, with a population of 31.7 million, gets the same number.

Iowa’s Democratic Senate candidate, Josh Turek, is a populist pragmatist. He isn’t as far left as El-Sayed and Nixon, but he refused corporate PAC money, wants to ban congressional stock trading, backs the PRO Act, and wants to keep Wall Street private equity from buying up Iowa homes and farmland.

Turek is leading in Iowa polls against his MAGA opponent, but not by much. Early voting has already started here.

Then there’s Ohio, which is interesting. Sherrod Brown lost a Senate seat in 2024 to Bernie Moreno (R). Now he’s running against Jon Husted, whom the Ohio Governor appointed to JD Vance’s old seat when Vance became VP. Brown has led every poll this month by between 3 and 8 points.

The entire Maine Senate race has been a disaster. However, looking at the Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson’s, platform is absolutely progressive, with Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, and banning members of Congress from trading stocks. He’s a great replacement for that other guy. Compared with Susan Collins, you would think it would be easy for the people of Maine to choose.

Jackson is up in the polls, but only slightly.

Last, in Alaska, there’s Mary Peltola. She’s taking on incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Peltola has led in every poll since September. She’s rejected the label of “liberal” and is running as a moderate. And her priorities read like it. And if that’s what it takes to flip Alaska. Okay, it’s not us.

Five Senate seats are toss-ups: AK, IA, ME, OH, and TX.

If Democrats flip all five, they will hold 53 seats in the Senate, which is not a filibuster-proof majority. It takes 60 votes to end a filibuster in the US Senate. We’ll be seven short, and I’m not sure that John Fetterman counts as one of us.

And then the question becomes whether Chuck Schumer has the political courage to kill the filibuster when it matters, if he becomes Majority Leader. And how that plays out may determine what AOC does in 2028. Or perhaps she’s already made up her mind.

El-Sayed’s race is in a blue seat, but he’ll be replacing moderate Gary Peters (D). But he’s far from the only incoming (🤞🏻) progressive in the Senate.

Juliana Stratton, running in a mostly safe blue Illinois, will be replacing Dick Durbin (D). Her platform calls for a $25 minimum wage, Medicare for All, and abolishing ICE. Plus, she said she won’t support Schumer for leader because he’s too tepid.

Peggy Flanagan, a rising progressive star from Minnesota, has Elizabeth Warren among her backers. Flanagan’s platform promises “radical change,” including tearing apart ICE and expanding Medicare to everyone.

Both Stratton and Flanagan are shifts left, compared to their Democratic predecessors.

What about progressives going into Congress?

Almost 30 new progressives are expected to join Congress in January. We already know who’s coming from Texas, but here are a few solid progressives you should expect to see in the next two years.

Ideally, we want progressives to win and keep replacing the moderate and establishment wing of the party, because the majority is only worth something if we’re willing to use it. A caucus full of people who ran on Medicare for All and refused corporate money doesn’t get to hide behind procedure, because their voters will hold them accountable.

Safe blue seats:

• Mai Vang (CA07)

• Melat Kiros (CO01)

• Donavan McKinney (MI13)

• Adam Hamawy (NJ12)

• Claire Valdez (NY07)

• Brad Lander (NY10)

• Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY13)

• Chris Rabb (PA03)

Red seats, expected to flip blue:

• Randy Villegas (CA22)

• Will Lawrence (MI07)

• Sam Forstag (MT01)

• Brian Poindexter (OH07)

The rest of the country matters, even if we don’t vote in it.

In Washington, DC, it’s all about the majority. Except in the Senate, where it’s more about a three-fifths majority, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Reading recommendation:

• Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy by Adam Jentelson.

Texas has to show up and do its part, too.

Make a plan to vote, whether that’s tomorrow morning or the end of next week. Then take one person with you. A neighbor, a coworker, the cousin who swears their vote doesn’t count.

I’ll see you tomorrow night with the first-day numbers.

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• 16 days until the November election!

• First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026

• Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026

• Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

The Secretary of State’s (SOS) website is starting to report received mail-in ballots. As of this writing, the SOS reports 44,537 mail-in ballots. NBC News Decision Desk is also reporting the mail-in votes cast, and it says 70,024.

And while early voting doesn’t start until Monday, this may be an early indication of how slow we can expect the SOS report to be on election night.

You may have heard earlier this week that there was still a 600,000-applicant backlog in the voter registration process. Texas now says the glitch has been fixed, and we have a record 19 million registered voters. 19,041,684, to be exact.

We need a record midterm, that much we know. Republicans have all lost their minds, and we need immediate checks and balances.

In Texas, what does history tell us about midterm turnout (at the top of the ticket)?

• 2022: 45% voter turnout = Republicans win by 10 points

• 2018: 53% voter turnout = Republicans win by 2 points

• 2014: 33.14% voter turnout = Republicans win by 27 points

Generally, higher voter turnout spells bad news for Republicans, which is why every legislative session they are pushing bills to try to make it harder to vote. We’ll know Monday whether we’re seeing record early-voting turnout, like other states are.

Though, I’d like to err on the side of caution about taking that as a definitive sign for Democrats, since this year Republicans are talking about “Uno-Reverse, early voting isn’t cheating anymore, now vote on day one.”

Another quick look at national numbers:

North Carolina: Democrats lead Republicans by 24.8 points among early voters, compared with D+10.3 at this point in 2022.

Iowa: Only one day into early voting, and Dems are +27.7, compared to +12 on the same day in 2022.

Georgia: First day of early voting was up 40% compared to 2022.

Trump voters in South Texas see Democrats as “a beacon of light.”

NYTimes released a video report yesterday from Texas’s Rio Grande Valley to see how voters felt about the upcoming race. This is an area in which, for years, Conservative Democrats have been pushing the base both to the right and toward disengagement.

In this report, a three-time Trump voter described Democrats right now as “God—a beacon of light.” From the article:

In the RGV counties, which Democrats lost in the last several years, we should expect them all to swing back blue.

In 2027 and going into 2028, it’ll be important for everyone in Texas who cares about getting our Conservative Democrats (like Henry Cuellar and Richard Raymond) elected in the next cycle to support progressive candidates and movements in the RGV, like DSA RGV and Ground Game RGV. But we have lots of time to talk about that.

Right now, Republicans are totally panicking. Not a single statewide Republican incumbent would debate their Democratic opponents. Not one.

Former Speaker Dade Phelan (R) told Texas Monthly the Republicans are freaking out and he expects a blue wave. Here are some of my favorite quotes from Phelan:

• “There’s serious concern like I’ve never seen before.”

• “We’re just not paying attention to the issues that matter.”

• “The 8 to 10 percent of voters in the middle who are going to decide this election, when they hear stuff about boys in girls’ sports, they don’t even know what you’re talking about.”

• “When people are spending $1,500, $2,000 a month on health care for their family, and we’re too afraid to even talk about health care, and we’re still talking about defund[ing] the police, which happened six years ago . . . I mean, we’ve got to catch up with the times.”

• “People compare this to 2018 [when Beto O’Rourke came within three points of winning a Senate race], but Paxton is nothing like Ted Cruz.”

• “Is there almost something inevitable about a party that hasn’t lost in more than thirty years nominating a guy like Bo French, who seems to represent all of the worst instincts of the party’s base?”

• “When I’ve seen polls that say 20 percent of Republican voters are seriously thinking about not voting for Paxton, that feels right. It may be high, but it feels right. I went to the football game [in late August] where TCU played North Carolina, in Dublin. I’m on the TCU side, of course, and a lot of Fort Worth people, they’re coming up to me because they recognize me, and they’re like, “I’m skipping the race, or I may actually vote for a Democrat for the first time ever.”

If Republicans in Texas see a 20% collapse of their base, it’s over for them.

In 2022, Abbott beat Beto by 880,000 votes, which is just under 20% of the Republican base. So, if 20% of them had stayed home that year, Beto would have won. Now, combine that with Democrats being over-energized and ready to kick Republicans to the curb, and it’s just not setting up to be a good next few weeks for the GOP.

Listen to these Republicans from Reuters:

Did you hear that one lady? “If Texas turns blue, then I’ll have to move back to Arkansas.” And did you also notice everyone in this video was old and white, in a state where the population is only 38% white? This one-minute video said a lot without saying it.

For many years, Texas has been a destination for overtly political Conservatives, seeking to escape the taxes of wherever they came from. Often, they called themselves “refugees” (especially if they were from California).

In recent years, many of those “refugees” have felt regret and moved back to their home states. Maybe if we finally turn Texas blue, the rest will jump ship, and we can finally have a better state, with healthcare, a working grid, and a government that finally works for the people.

Honestly, I’m giddy.

I’ve been through enough Texas election cycles to know the routine. Usually, around October, I get a sinking feeling. That feeling you have when you know everything is about to fall apart. But this year, I feel really good.

A lot of it has to do with the math and what we’ve been seeing on the ground, but remember the Marist Poll said 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans. Having a Democrat in every seat across the board will really pay off. Texas Democrats are building the wave right here.

The math is there. The doors are getting knocked. All that’s left is the turnout.

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• 17 days until the November election!

• First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026

• Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026

• Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

A new PAC is in town. (The town of Washington, DC.) They’re called Courage for Democracy, and after the election, they’re starting a new Caucus in Congress. I met with them yesterday, and their program is really exciting.

Every candidate they back has pledged to file articles of impeachment against Donald Trump on day one. Not “explore our options.” Not “let the process play out.”

Day one. Tyranny, treason, and obstruction of justice.

While they had about 150 candidates in the primary, only 26 advanced to the general election, including FOUR Texas Democrats. Coincidentally, all in North Texas.

• TX03: Evan Hunt

• TX04: Jason Pearce

• TX05: Chelsey Hockett

• TX06: Danny Minton

All four of these Democrats are taking on Republican incumbents, and all four have signed a code of ethics with Courage for Democracy. If enough of them win, they become the Courage Caucus, or whatever they decide to call themselves.

What’s the purpose of this caucus? The same idea as the Freedom Caucus, and to punch above their weight in a narrow House margin. Just no evil, because the Freedom Caucus was evil. The Courage Caucus WANTS Congress to do its job.

This PAC calls itself “nonpartisan,” but the platform reads like a progressive wish list. And maybe it’s time to talk again about progressive values in an upcoming article.

Gina Hinojosa gave a fantastic interview with Politico recently, where the discussion of her being a progressive came up (timestamp 19:50). And you have to hear how she framed it.

She said her positions haven’t changed, but she now calls herself an “economic populist,” not a progressive. She said that people associate “progressive” too much with culture war issues and that economic populists focus on economic issues.

Okay. Semantics. She’s doing that for the election and the moderate vote. But progressive policies have always been about the economy and making sure it functions for the working class. However, if we want to call an apple a Granny Smith, who cares?

And I say that because, under their nonpartisan title, they’ve built a platform that includes only issues that poll well with Americans. Not just Democrats, but all Americans. You and I might look at their platform and say, “That’s progressive,” but when we look at national polling on these issues, it’s more middle, and Congress hasn’t been listening.

Reminder: Lone Star Left takes no PAC money, including theirs. This is an introduction because I’m genuinely excited about what they’re building.

Every single Courage Candidate was told in the beginning that they had to pay to play or sit down. I get the same deal as an independent political writer. The big outlets and paid influencers answer to the people who fund them, and it’s never “the people.”

If this newsletter helps keep you informed about Texas politics, a district, a donor, or a vote, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. There’s no paywall. Everything stays free because some readers decide to keep it that way.

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What is this group about?

Courage for Democracy didn’t start as a PAC. It started as Citizens Impeachment, a grassroots outfit that spent 2025 calling Congressional offices and asking members to do their jobs. And when Congress declined, they went out looking for people who would.

In November 2025, it began recruiting congressional candidates, then registered with the FEC in January 2026. The price of admission wasn’t monetary; it was a pledge. The pledge is that every Courage Candidate promises to file articles of impeachment against Donald Trump on day one for tyranny, treason, and obstruction of justice. They also signed a code of ethics.

The platform rests on five planks:

• Pro-impeachment

• Anti-corruption

• Anti-oligarchy

• Anti-authoritarianism

• Anti-ICE

Anything else joins the platform when two-thirds of the candidates back it. They voted on more than 100 policy positions, and the PAC says every one that made its policy matrix cleared 80%.

The endgame is a voting bloc committed to responsive government.

The math.

I know some of you are thinking, “What can a handful of freshmen do in a 435-seat House?”

Some of you may remember this guy:

In January 2015, nine Republicans founded the House Freedom Caucus. By September, they led the charge to oust Speaker John Boehner. In 2023, the same faction made Kevin McCarthy sit through 15 ballots to get the gavel. Nine months later, Republicans voted with Democrats to take it away from him.

In a narrow House, a small bloc willing to vote together needs the margins and a little bit of elbow grease, and they can make big things happen.

The left ran a simialar experiment at a smaller level with the Squad. Is the Squad technically Justice Democrats? They’re growing this year, too. But their membership is still smaller.

Desk HQ gives Democrats a 77 percent shot at the House and projects them at 235 seats. A majority that size can lose 17 votes and shrug. To block anything, the Courage Caucus would need 18 members voting together.

That also goes for what passes, including impeachment.

Of course, none of this happens unless they win. Which is why we have to make sure the Texas four make it over the finish line.

The platform.

The Courage candidates agree on a lot. Their policy matrix lists 15 positions with unanimous support. Including:

• Ban Citizens United.

• Ban Congressional stock trading.

• Enforce antitrust laws.

• Close corporate tax loopholes.

• Protect LGBTQ+ people.

• Nationwide paid family leave.

Another few dozen passed with nobody voting no. Some voted “present.” Those include universal healthcare with dental and vision, the Green New Deal, taxing the wealthy, and universal background checks.

The Texas four.

• TX03: Evan Hunt vs. Keith Self (R). Cook rating +11R. Hunt is an Air Force officer and former defense and aerospace executive based in McKinney. Keith Self quotes Joseph Goebbels.

• TX04: Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon (R). Cook rating +12R. Pearce is a UNT graduate from Plano whose progressive platform goes far beyond the coalition consensus. Pat Fallon is a Massachusetts grifter.

• TX05: Chelsey Hockett vs. Lance Gooden (R). Cook rating +10R. Hockett is a progressive mom from Kaufman County who recently sought the local DSA endorsement. Lance Gooden is the biggest liar in Texas and one of Trump’s top soldiers.

• TX06: Danny Minton vs. Jake Ellzey (R). Cook rating +11R. Minton spent his career training doctors and supporting patients with breast cancer and Alzheimer’s. He lives in Arlington with his wife and two sons. Jake Ellzey doesn’t live in Arlington, but made sure an Arlington post office got named after a January 6th traitor.

Ten, eleven, twelve points. Taylor Rehmet won by 30-ish. Not saying that means they’ll all flip, but they all have potential this year, in this environment, with this big blue wave (fingers crossed).

Texas isn’t a red state. It’s a non-voting state. And the day we become a voting state is the day these districts stop being red. And all four of these candidates are betting that Texans are tired of not voting.

These four Texas candidates signed a pledge.

They promised to earn your vote, and not just be less shitty than the other guy. And they promised on day one, they’d do the thing most of Congress has spent years explaining why it can’t.

None of this is guaranteed. The Courage Caucus may wind up with eighteen members. It may wind up with three. It all depends on us getting to the polls.

Early voting runs Monday, October 19, through Friday, October 30. Election Day is November 3. Find your polling place at VoteTexas.gov. Bring your ID. Bring a friend. Bring two.

Courage is contagious. So is voting. Be patient zero.

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• 19 days until the November election!

• First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026

• Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026

• Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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Virginia began early voting in September. By October 11, Virginia recorded more than 519,000 early ballots, compared with about 260,000 on the same day in 2022. This means their turnout (so far) is nearly double what it was in the last midterm election.

In Michigan, absentee ballots can be mailed in and submitted in drop boxes. Already, 6% of registered voters have cast a ballot, and Michigan is up 20% compared to this same point in 2022.

Early voting has also begun in Ohio, where 200,000 people have already voted in person. That’s four times higher than the 2022 midterm.

In Georgia, the Georgia Secretary of State said the Midterm early voting turnout record was shattered last week.

Everywhere, voting is up substantially compared to 2022. Double. Quadruple.

But what does it mean?

Republicans expected a red wave in 2022, and it never materialized. They picked up only nine House seats, Democrats held the Senate, and Republicans flipped only one governor’s race, while Democrats flipped three.

Why did Republicans expect to have a red wave in 2022? And why did it fizzle out?

In every midterm after WWII, the president’s party lost an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats. And Biden wasn’t exactly popular. So, models built on that precedent predicted Democrats would lose 45 seats.

Because polls previously underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020, Republican-leaning pollsters overinflated Republicans’ chances in 2022.

Why did Republicans underperform in the 2022 midterm? Mostly because of Dobbs. Partly because of the election denial.

Democrats only overperformed in swing seats and statewide races with weak GOP nominees. Everywhere else, like Texas, they had a bad midterm.

But what does it mean for 2026?

Honestly, it means we’re all here together speculating and hoping that it means something good. We can talk about the signs and indicators, but until Steve Kornacki rolls up his sleeves on election night, we’re just guessing.

This Marist Poll, what does it mean?

This morning, Marist Poll dropped its latest. Talarico up by 2, Abbott up by 4, Trump disapproval at 54% in Texas. But the crosstabs have everyone losing their minds.

Basically, this poll’s sample is +14 (R), which is redder than Texas was in 2024. Republicans won in 2024 with +12. Even with a redder sample, it still shows Talarico ahead. This could be a really bad sign for Republicans.

Caveat. Marist’s likely-voter model leans on voting history, and Republicans say they “always” vote at a much higher rate than Democrats. If, in 2026, Democrats turn out people who usually don’t vote, the model can’t see them. And in Texas, that’s a lot of people.

Also, this should be noted, and I don’t think it’s been widely discussed. In this Marist Poll, 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans.

The question now is who is going to show up?

Is enthusiasm a thing?

Most Texans don’t even vote. When 44% of registered voters stay home in a critical election (like a mid-term), the results depend on which half showed up. Habitual voters (like me and you) show up no matter what. Occasional voters show up when they’re scared, angry, or excited.

Trump has given the American people a lot to fear.

Texas Republicans have given Texans a lot to be angry over.

And the thought of finally flipping Texas blue has excited many people. Maybe?

On the other hand, Texas Republicans may be scared to lose power. Fear could drive them out. They’d rather pay the high property taxes, live without healthcare and access to water, and pay $300 electric bills than vote for someone with a (D) next to their name. The scary commercials from Republicans every ten minutes will terrify them into going to the polls.

We don’t have to guess. The Texas Politics Project polled registered voters on their enthusiasm this year.

Texas Democrats are slightly more enthusiastic about voting this year, while Texas Republicans are substantially less enthusiastic.

• 63% of Democrats rated their enthusiasm 10 out of 10, compared with 50% of Republicans and 41% of Independents.

But really, enthusiasm is only a feeling. Nothing is real until everyone casts their ballot.

But what if the early surge is Republicans?

Remember, for years, Republicans said early voting was cheating, but then they figured out that forcing their aging base to only vote on election day was problematic. And then, last week, we talked about how Tim Dunn’s mouthpiece was already crying about the midterm results:

One interesting point I thought he made on his podcast was telling his audience to vote on the first or second day of early voting. It was the first time I think I ever heard a Republican say that.

Last year (far-right-leaning), The Federalist published this article, which talks about various Conservative groups’ push to get Republicans to vote early.

This is starting to feel like a roller coaster. Don’t worry. Even if Republicans have convinced their base that it’s now cheating to vote on Election Day and you have to vote on the first day of early voting, it’ll all even out in the end.

The polls are on our side. Enthusiasm is on our side. But right now, we’re just making guesses. The only thing that counts is showing up.

Here’s why it’s looking pretty bleak for Republicans.

Kroger announced yesterday it’s laying off 37% of its workforce and replacing them with AI over the next three years. In September, employers added only 29,000 jobs, which was far below what was forecast. Wage growth has slowed to its lowest level since May 2021.

Gas is averaging $3.82 in Texas, below the national average of $4.36. Consumer prices, including food, are up 3.5% over the year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 7.28%. Texas is currently leading the nation in home foreclosures.

In the Marist poll crosstabs, 58% of Democrats said their family finances were worse off this year, compared to 19% of Republicans.

All of these things in Texas that are broken, and in Congress under Trump, are broken because of Republican policy. The only way to change that is by voting.

Early voting starts next Monday, October 19.

You can vote anytime between then and Friday, October 30. You can also vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. You’ll have to find polling hours and locations in your county (Google).

There’s also ONE weekend of early voting. So, if that’s the only time you can get off work, you can also vote on Saturday/Sunday, October 24/25.

9.6 million registered voters didn’t show up in Texas in 2022. Let’s make sure they do in 2026.

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• 20 days until the November election!

• First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026

• Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026

• Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

Last week, James Talarico had the flu. He regularly comes into contact with thousands of people, so picking up germs on the campaign trail is completely normal. He rested at his home in Austin, stayed in contact with his campaign, and even joined a Zoom call with a fever. Really, not a serious thing.

Not until Republican MAGA influencers on Twitter made up a tall tale about Talarico being in a mental hospital in Ohio. “Made up,” as in completely fabricated, as in it came from the imagination of some incel somewhere.

This lie went so far, so extreme, that they created a fake AI phone call to try to prove what they were saying. And that’s how they were caught. The phone call said Talarico was discharged that day, when he was literally spotted in Austin the day before. And it all crumbled from there.

As CNN reported ⬆️, this lie raked up millions and millions of views on Twitter (I don’t care what the Nazis renamed it to). Doesn’t that prove that Twitter is a misinformation platform?

Based on Elon’s baby mama, Ashley St. Clair’s lawsuit, this platform also produces child pornography. There have been lawsuits in California, Tennessee, and investigations in Europe, all regarding alleged sexually explicit AI-generated images of children.

The National Institutes of Health published a study in 2025, which concluded there was a measurable rise in hate speech, racist slurs, and extremist rhetoric following Elon Musk’s takeover of the platform.

Twitter is the propaganda arm for the far-right, built by an oligarch, run on patriarchy, and fueled by racism, nationalism, and whatever toxic sludge pays for a checkmark this week.

Some of this is indefensible.

It’s supposed to be a criminal offense to distribute deepfakes in Texas. Republicans passed that law last year. Not to mention impersonation and defamation.

This is a good time to remind everyone that Section 230 shields Twitter (and other social media companies) from what users post, and there have been bipartisan efforts to repeal it in the past. Those efforts have been mostly blocked by industry.

The Section 230 discussion really deserves its own post, because it’s been marketed as limiting free speech, instead of actual content moderation. But Twitter, a platform without content moderation, seems to make the argument for us.

We have to win elections if we ever want a better world.

This morning, one of the Krassenstein twins released a video featuring an audio clip from Twitter with Ken Paxton’s Senior Advisor, Michelle Smith. The clip implies the Paxton campaign helped invent this lie.

Yeah, you heard that right. Here’s the full video from the Wall Street Journal:

Once a crook, always a crook.

Republicans lie because they can’t run on what they’ve actually done to Texas. So, they are just out here making shit up.

Like “Gina Hinojosa voted to raise taxes 40 times.”

The more I think about this particular lie, the more irritating it becomes.

Republicans want you to believe the Republican Legislature passed a bill out of a Republican-led committee 40 times, then sent it to the Republican-led House floor 40 times, where Hinojosa had the opportunity to vote on it.

Not to mention that the Texas State Legislature doesn’t levy property taxes.

• This lie has been debunked by the Houston Chronicle.

• Also, the Texas Democratic Party.

They lie for the sake of lying and hope the people listening will believe it.

And that’s why lies become dangerous.

For years, the phrase most repeated in mainstream media was “Trump’s Big Lie.” Funny, we don’t hear that term thrown around anymore. But it was the lies from Trump and right-wing media and influencers that eventually led to the attempted January 6 insurrection.

In 2016, Russia ran a sweeping operation to help Trump win. A Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed it in a five-volume bipartisan report. Yet, Trump lied about it being a hoax. His base believed him. A decade later, we’re still dealing with him.

Trump spent five years claiming America’s first Black president was born in Kenya. The conspiracy theory got so out of hand that Obama eventually published his long-form birth certificate. But by then, it was too late. A 2016 poll showed that 72% of registered Republicans doubted President Obama’s citizenship.

You know, when George Dubya Bush told us all there were “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq in 2003, he was lying. 4,500 American troops died, along with hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

When Republicans tell lies, our society suffers. And in the age of Trump, the GOP has almost normalized lying.

Bill Adair, the founder of Politifact, talks in this interview ⬆️ about how Republicans lie way more (and it isn’t even close). He sums it up to Newt Gingrich’s takeover of House Republicans in the early ’90s and how it created an “anything goes” culture where winning justifies everything. Adair also talks about how right-wing media doesn’t challenge them, instead repeating their lies for profit.

Adair said that Americans assume that politicians have always lied.

Maybe they have. But lies in political spaces used to be treated a lot differently.

In 1954, Republican Joseph McCarthy had spent four years smearing people as communists with no proof. Then a lawyer named Joseph Welch asked him on live television, “Have you no sense of decency, sir?” His career was over shortly after that.

In 1998, Republicans impeached Bill Clinton for lying under oath. They argued that a president who lies can’t be trusted with the office.

Lying used to have consequences.

Then came Trump.

Donald Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims in his first term, according to the Washington Post. Republicans rewarded him with a re-election.

So the consequences aren’t coming from Washington anymore. Congress won’t deliver them. The Texas Senate wouldn’t deliver them to Ken Paxton. Elon Musk sure as hell won’t. The only accountability left is the ballot.

And brace yourself. If they’ll fake a phone call to put a Senate candidate in a psych ward, they’ll fake something worse before November 3. Don’t believe anything you see from Republicans (golden rule).

Early voting starts Monday, October 19, and runs through Friday, October 30. Election Day is November 3.

Vote all the way down the ballot. Senate. Governor. Railroad commissioner. Every judge. Every state house seat. And vote against every lying Republican on it.

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• 21 days until the November election!

• First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026

• Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026

• Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026

• Election Day: November 3, 2026

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Buy me a coffee.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.