Gee, we’re like 48 days away now. And I promised you a few other pieces of content beforehand. This is part of my county series. If you missed the previous installments:

• How Important Is Dallas County In The 2026 Election?

• How Important Is Harris County In The 2026 Election?

• How Important Is Tarrant County In The 2026 Election?

I know, I’ve gone a little bananas with the headline, but I thought it was time to break up the monotony. Besides, if you haven’t heard, Votehub has moved Texas to “Lean Dem,” and on their map, they have Collin County as BLUE.

And for those of you with particularly sharp eyes, you may have also noticed they have the entire RGV, WilCo, and Jefferson County blue as well. However, Brazoria and Bell Counties still look pink. But of course, Votehub has been wrong before.

Regarding Collin County, though. This county is ready to flip. This is a county I have said (for years) is the next flip in DFW after Tarrant.

First of all, look at the presidential results in Collin County for the last two decades:

Caveat, we know Democrats largely stayed home in 2022 and 2024. LOL at all the Republicans who just thought Texas was moving the other way, as opposed to people not voting.

But this year is a midterm election. So, let’s look at the past few midterms:

If you were only looking at the county-wide numbers, you would think Collin County Democrats got to a certain place by 2018 and have basically hovered there since. And that’s not too far from reality, but let’s look more closely.

As I said, statewide turnout was down in 2022 and 2024. Collin County was no exception. Kendall Scudder confirmed that 1.4 million Democrats stayed home in 2024, so it’s safe to assume they stayed home in 2022 as well. We’ve been over this, ad nauseam, these last few years. Why didn’t Democrats show up in 2022 and 2024? That’s not the discussion we’re having today. The discussion we’re having today is:

Will they show up in 2026?

Besides the statewide candidates, Collin County has three Congresspeople, six State Representatives, and one State Senator on the ballot this year.

There are also County Elections happening. I haven’t been following those, but I have been following the onslaught of drama that seems to repeat in this county. From the Karmelo Anthony case to the Islamophobic protests, this county has become a boiling kettle, even leading to the statewide ban of famed white supremacist Jake Lang.

Collin County Democratic Party fundraising numbers this year are not too terribly far behind the Republicans. The GOP is always going to have more money than us, because they’re the party of the elite. However, we should be beating them on precinct chairs. Right now, we aren’t.

The Collin County Democratic Party has had several chairs in recent years, with Jeremy Sutka the latest.

The Congressional seats.

TX03, Evan Hunt, who is running against Keith Self, a Pennsylvania native who has a history of quoting Joseph Goebbels and has also picked up the torch against his Muslim neighbors. Collin County has a Muslim population of about 3%.

TX03 covers much of Collin County and most of Hunt County. Cook PVI lists this district as R+11, which could indicate vulnerability in a blue-tsunami election.

TX04, Jason Pearce, who is running against Pat Fallon, a Massachusetts native who has a history of mocking other people’s sexuality and has voted to cut more than $1 trillion in healthcare and food aid.

TX04 covers parts of Collin County along with Bowie, Delta, Denton, Fannin, and several other Northeast Texas counties. Cook PVI lists this district as R+12, one point redder than TX03.

TX32, Dan Barrios, who is running against Jace Yarbrough.

TX32 stretches east through Rockwall, Hunt, Rains, Wood, Camp, and Upshur Counties along with slivers of Collin and Dallas. Cook PVI lists this district as R+8.

Texas House seats.

HD33: Orlando Lopez, who is running against Katrina Pierson. This seat is mostly in Rockwall County, but a small sliver of it runs through Collin. The Collin slice is more diverse, with 54.5% non-Anglo and a significant Asian population at 21.7%.

I had an entire conversation with a friend this morning about how districts might be 30% R, but only have a 50% turnout. And how turnout is generally low because Democrats stay home and when that turnout changes, the R-tilt changes, and this year, that’s the whole ball game. That’s in general. HD33 is more like a 25% R and a 52% midterm turnout.

In most of these Collin County seats, if Democrats moved the needle +5, they’re going to flip the seat. HD33 is a little trickier, because it’s mostly in Rockwall County.

HD61: Brittany Black, who is running against Keresa Richardson. HD61 is one of those suburban North Texas seats that still reads “red” on paper, but not deep red. Demographically, it’s basically a 50/50 Anglo vs. non-Anglo district with a very large Asian community (about 23% of the total population) and a combined Black+Hispanic share of around 24%.

Last election cycle, I kept a spreadsheet of all the crazy pledges Republicans were taking. Texit. Abolish Abortion. Ban Democratic Chairs. Keresa Richardson was the only Republican who signed them all. So, she’s extra, extra loony. There’s no spreadsheet this cycle. Just assume they’ve all fell off the deep-end.

HD66: Sandeep Srviastava, who is running against Matt Shaheen. The district is 55.3% Anglo with a massive Asian-American population of 20.4%. Trump carried it by 14 points in 2024, but the Senate race gap was only 9 points. Srivastava is the Democratic challenger, and his name recognition alone in a heavily South Asian district could matter. This is exactly the kind of district where a wave plus the right candidate bio can produce an upset that nobody saw coming.

HD67: Jordan Wheatley, who is running against Jeff Leach. After spending his entire career voting in favor of racism, just this week, Jeff Leach pretended to not like racism. Leach has been fending off Democratic challengers in this Collin County district since 2018 and keeps winning. Jordan Wheatley will now get his shot at one of the more entrenched Republican incumbents on the target list.

HD70: Mihaela Plesa is the incumbent in this district and is fending off some Republican rando. Plesa represents her district well. You know, the one thing I’ve learned about Texans is they really appreciate a Representative who shows up, and Plesa always shows up. And her district knows that. She’ll win re-election.

HD89: Angie Carraway, who is running against Candy Noble. This district is probably the hardest district in Collin County, with a much bigger swing than the rest of them. In a tsunami, where we see the dream situation, and Republicans get completely wiped out, maybe this one flips too. Republicans should vote against Candy Noble though. One time, she defended incest.

Texas Senate.

There’s only a small tiny pice of SD02 that snakes across the bottom of Collin County, and it’s the only Senate district up for re-election in Collin County. However, it’s an important district. Keenen Colbert is running for this district, against far-right QAnon member, Bob Hall. We can flip this district this year.

SD2 in 2024 had only a 64.3% turnout, meaning 225,950 registered voters stayed home in a presidential year with a competitive US Senate race at the top of the ticket. In 2022, the last midterm, turnout was 44%. Collin County is 9% of the district. Expensive real estate, educated suburbanites. The small sliver in SD2 is probably ticket-splitter country. Small in numbers, but the type of voter who breaks away from Hall on school vouchers and healthcare costs.

My prediction? Collin County turns blue this November.

Now, maybe that’s magical thinking, but I’m hearing these days it’s increasingly reasonable. I’ve been saying for years this is the next flip in DFW after Tarrant, is Collin. Every number is exactly the kind of thing that precedes a flip. A primary electorate splitting 48/52 in a county Republicans have owned by double digits for two decades. Democrats retaining more of their presidential-year turnout in special elections than Republicans, nationally and here. A Senate district Trump carried by 17 points flipping on a 32-point swing. Talarico ahead of Paxton statewide in a county that’s supposed to be redder than the state average.

Call it 225,000 Democratic votes if you want the conservative number. I think the enthusiasm gap we’re watching build all year finally shows up on a ballot that matters, and I think Collin County, with Karmelo Anthony, the Islamophobic protests, Jake Lang and all, it’s done being an afterthought in a Republican machine.

Democrats have been waiting for Texas to change on its own for twenty years. But this is the year the waiting ends in Collin County. 🤞🏻

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• 48 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

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By now, everyone has heard about the racist comments Bo French made this weekend on Twitter. It’s not even the most racist thing Bo French has ever said. The Republican candidate for Railroad Commissioner has a long history of being extremely racist and extremely offensive. He won the GOP primary anyway, because that’s who GOP primary voters are.

But none of this is new for Bo French. He’s been a proud and out white supremacist for many years. What’s new is the sudden chorus of pearl-clutching by Texas Republicans, who claim to be “outraged” at his statement. Except every single one of those pearl-clutchers has their own history of racism. Yes, I have receipts.

And considering we’re only like 50 days away from an election Republicans are expected to lose BIG, it’s easy to presume their outrage is completely performative.

Let’s start with the Texas House.

Each one of these Republicans responded to French’s racism, implying that they weren’t okay with his brand of white supremacy.

Wouldn’t that be nice if they actually meant it?

Let’s look up who voted for the RACIST mid-decade redistricting, intentionally to strip Black political representation out of power in Texas.

So, Lacey Hull, Jeff Leach, Drew Darby, Dustin Burrows, Matt Shaheen, and Jared Patterson are perfectly fine with stripping Black Texans of political representation. But they think that racism should be done quietly, procedurally.

A few ex-House members even jumped in on the pear-clutching.

But all of these ex-members became ex-members by pushing the House to the right, then acting shocked when they lost their seats to fascists.

In the 88th Legislature, Republicans passed the “Show Me Your Papers” bill. A RACIST bill that gave law enforcement the authority to stop any brown person in the state of Texas and demand to see their legal paperwork. It’s legal racial profiling.

And wouldn’t you know? Every single pearl-clutcher is also on that bill, voting for out-and-out racism, Lacey Hull, Jeff Leach, Drew Darby, Dustin Burrows, Matt Shaheen, and Jared Patterson. Even the ex-members Glenn Rogers and Justin Holland. And since Dade Phelan was the Speaker at the time, he was the one who even let it get to the floor.

Every single current and previous House Rep who claimed outrage at Bo French was talking about UT students’ skin color also voted to legalize racial profiling in the state of Texas. And that’s why their outrage isn’t real. That’s why their outrage is performative. Because we’re so close to the election, and many of them might lose.

I’m not done.

Also, in the 88th Session, Republicans voted to kill diversity offices, diversity hiring statements, and mandatory diversity training in public universities. Want to guess which of these pearl clutchers voted in favor of it?

All of them again. (Except Shaheen, who was absent that day.)

In the 87th Legislature, Republicans restricted how race and racism in US history can be taught and banned teaching the 1619 Project.

And once again, every single Republican who claimed to be outraged at French’s racism voted for this racist bill to erase American history and teach Texas schoolchildren a whitewashed version of America.

Bo French tweets his racism because he’s a rage-baiting failson with a blue checkmark and no impulse control.

Lacey Hull, Jeff Leach, Drew Darby, Dustin Burrows, Matt Shaheen, and Jared Patterson do their racism in committee rooms, in bill language, in floor votes that take thirty seconds and get buried under a hundred other line items nobody’s paying attention to (well, I do).

That’s the only difference. Bo French’s racism gets a screenshot and a news cycle. Theirs gets a bill number and the force of law behind it.

And if we’re being honest about which version is worse, it’s not the guy running for Railroad Commissioner who can’t stop posting. But it gets worse if he’s elected.

It’s the six people who sat in the Texas House and voted to strip Black Texans out of their own congressional districts, to profile brown Texans on the side of the road, to scrub the history of white supremacy out of an eighth grader’s textbook, and then had the nerve to clutch their pearls at a tweet. Bo French says the quiet part loud. These six say the loud part quiet, then go home and tell their donors they’re the reasonable ones. That’s a PR strategy. And Texans keep falling for it because it comes wrapped in a suit instead of a Twitter avatar.

Texas is only 39% white. Which means it’s 61% non-white. It’s LONG past time to get these white supremacists and their sympathizers out of office, whether their racism is quiet or loud.

Vote against Bo French in November. Please vote for Jon Rosenthal. He’s actually qualified for the job. And while you’re at it, give him money, if you have any.

And all those phony pearl-clutchers have opponents, too:

• HD66: Matt Shaheen < Sandeep Srivastava

• HD67: Jeff Leach < Jordan Wheatley

• HD72: Drew Darby < Shiloh Salazar

• HD83: Dustin Burrows < Malik Williams

• HD106: Jared Patterson < Joe Mayes

• HD138: Lacey Hull < Tyler Smith

Bo French is one guy with a blue checkmark. These six have votes, committee seats, and a Speaker’s gavel. Vote them all out.

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• 50 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next two months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Eliz Markowitz?

Dr. Eliz Markowitz is a native Texan, a Katy ISD grad, raised in Fort Bend County by a teacher and an oil worker. She’s got a bachelor’s in Computer Science and Studio Art from Trinity, three master’s degrees (business, healthcare informatics, public administration), and a doctorate in curriculum and instruction. She currently teaches Public Health at the University of Houston and trains teachers nationally through the Princeton Review.

Markowitz has spent her actual career in the two systems HD26 voters care most about, healthcare and education.

And it shows in what she’s chosen to fight for. She’s spent years pushing to end Texas’s addiction to high-stakes STAAR testing, the standardized test that burns through millions of taxpayer dollars and instructional hours. She’s also worked directly with the Department of Health and Human Services on reducing adverse healthcare events.

Her pitch is not complicated. An economy that works for all Texans, healthcare people can actually afford, and an education system that supports the people inside it. That sounds obvious until you remember we’ve spent the last several sessions doing the opposite on all three counts.

The district.

This is a Fort Bend County district that, on paper, looks like exactly the kind of place the GOP’s entire suburban strategy was built to lose.

Nearly 58% of the district is non-Anglo. Hispanic residents make up about a quarter of the population. Black residents make up another 12-14%. Asian residents make up roughly 21% of the district, more than three times the statewide rate.

Per capita income here is $53,603, well above the state’s $40,752. Nearly 30% of households pull in $200,000 or more a year. Almost 60% of adults 25 and older hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to under 34% statewide. This is 71% owner-occupied, with an average home value pushing $477,000, in houses that are mostly brand new, since 42.6% of the housing stock was built in 2010 or later. This is fresh, high-income, highly educated suburban sprawl, the exact demographic that’s been fleeing the GOP nationally since 2018 and taking their kids’ STAAR test scores with them.

This district isn’t even that red anymore, and the Republican incumbent is running ahead of his own party’s ceiling to survive. In 2024, Trump carried the district 56.3% to 40.9%. Ted Cruz did marginally better against Allred, 53.8% to 43.7%. But in the State Rep 26 race, incumbent Morgan beat Democrat Lee 59.2% to 40.8%. Down-ballot Democrat underperformed the top of the ticket by several points, while the Republican incumbent outperformed his own party’s presidential nominee.

So what does it take to flip HD26?

First, turnout capacity is already proven. These are voters who show up. The problem is persuasion and down-ballot awareness.

Second, Trump and Republicans nationally are underwater, and Hispanic voters are swinging back left. HD26’s Hispanic population is over a fifth of the electorate. Combine that shift with a Democratic wave year, and this looks more like a ceiling nobody’s tested yet.

Third, that Asian electorate is the single most underexploited bloc in this district. Asian voters have been trending Democratic in suburban Texas for years, and at 21% of the population, HD26 has more of them than almost anywhere else in the state legislature’s map. A campaign that actually shows up has room to move numbers here that Republicans have never had to defend.

HD26 is a district Republicans have been winning on autopilot because Democrats haven’t given wealthy, educated, diverse suburban voters enough reason. Close that gap and this seat flips because somebody finally ran a campaign worthy of the electorate that’s already there.

The incumbent.

Matt Morgan won HD26 by primarying out Jacey Jetton, a sitting Republican, over the vote to impeach Ken Paxton. Which means Morgan was further to the right. That’s his whole résumé bullet. Paxton personally backed Morgan to take out a Republican incumbent who tried to hold him accountable, on his 2024 revenge tour. Morgan won by double digits.

Then there’s the campaign bio. He wants you to know his family came over with Stephen F. Austin’s “Old 300” in 1825, that he’s an eighth-generation Texan, that his ancestor was a sheriff. It’s a dog whistle for Republicans. But we all know that.

Morgan has specifically complained that dead people were still on Fort Bend’s voter rolls twelve years after they died. But this is also a man building a campaign identity around voter fraud paranoia. He has no solid policy ideas.

Morgan carries a 93% score from Texas Alliance for Life, squarely in line with the session that defunded Planned Parenthood again, poured $200 million into crisis pregnancy centers dressed up as “family support,” and criminalized mailing abortion medication into the state. This in a district where Black maternal mortality and Hispanic uninsurance rates are already a documented crisis (the same crisis Markowitz’s own platform calls out by name). Morgan’s answer to that crisis was to make reproductive healthcare harder to access, not easier.

Morgan was there for the voucher session. He showed up to a Fort Bend legislators’ panel arm-in-arm with Buckley, the House sponsor of the voucher bill, celebrating the “Texas Two-Step” of pairing a modest public school funding bump with a $1 billion pipeline for private school tuition subsidies. In a district that is 71.8% public-school kids, siphoning state dollars toward private education.

In Eliz Markowitz’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Markowitz, based on previous reader polls, along with her answers.

Q: Do you support a statewide minimum wage increase to at least $15/hour?

Yes. If you work full time, you should be able to afford to live. Period. I support raising Texas’ minimum wage to *at least* $15 an hour and ensuring it keeps pace with the cost of living. Working Texans shouldn’t need two or three jobs just to keep a roof over their heads and food on the table.

Q: Should Texas end tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations?

Yes, especially when they’re just corporate giveaways. Texas families and small businesses shouldn’t be paying their full share while massive corporations get special deals. If a company gets a tax break, Texans should get good-paying jobs, local hiring, and investment in our communities in return. And if the company doesn’t deliver, neither should we.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

Absolutely. Unequivocally. Public dollars belong in public schools. Period. I will fight any attempt to funnel taxpayer dollars from our neighborhood schools to subsidize private education. Texas should be fully funding our public schools, paying educators (and retired educators) what they deserve, and giving every child a great education, not dismantling public education one voucher or charter school at a time.

Q: Should Texas guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students, regardless of income?

Absolutely. Kids cannot learn when they’re hungry. Period. Texas should provide free school meals to every K–12 student, regardless of income. We don’t need to make kids prove they’re poor enough to eat. Feed them. Let them learn. It really should be that simple.

Q: Should Texas end tax breaks and regulatory loopholes for oil and gas companies, including exemptions from emissions reporting and waste disposal standards?

Absolutely. Oil and gas companies don’t need special rules, special loopholes, or another taxpayer-funded giveaway. If you pollute in Texas, you should have to report it, clean it up, and pay for it. Period. Texans shouldn’t be left footing the bill while massive corporations pocket the profits.

Q: Do you support closing or downsizing state prisons and redirecting that funding to community-based alternatives like mental health care, housing, and youth programs?

Yes. If we can safely downsize prisons, we should. I’d rather put those dollars into things that can actually keep people out of prison in the first place: mental health care, substance-use treatment, housing, diversion programs, and youth services. Prison should be for people who are a real threat to public safety, not our answer when we’ve failed to address problems earlier. It also just makes fiscal sense. It costs a lot to keep someone incarcerated, and I’d rather use taxpayer dollars to prevent a crisis than pay for one afterward.

Bonus Question: Who are your political role models, living or dead?

Barbara Jordan and Ann Richards. Yes, I know. Very original for a Texas Democrat. But sometimes the obvious answer is the right one. Jordan had integrity, took public service seriously, and suffered no fools. Richards was smart as hell, funny, and had zero patience for bullshit. Neither woman seemed interested in performing for people. Neither woman adapted themselves to fit a mold. They knew who they were, said what they thought, and got to work. Those are my kind of people, and I’ll take that over polished political nonsense any day.

The choice, such as it is.

HD26 is a district that’s wealthier, more educated, and more diverse than the state it sits in, currently represented by a man whose main qualifications are lineage, loyalty to Ken Paxton, and a 93% pro-life scorecard in a district where women are already dying from a healthcare system that doesn’t work. Against him is a woman with more advanced degrees than most legislative committees combined, who’s spent her actual career doing the two things Morgan just talks about at panels.

Markowitz answered every policy question directly, a $15 minimum wage, ending corporate tax giveaways, universal school meals, closing the loopholes that let oil and gas companies pollute for free. Whether or not you agree with all of it, you know exactly where she stands. Morgan’s entire platform is border security, election integrity, and parental rights, three phrases that poll well and mean whatever the mailer needs them to mean that week.

Barbara Jordan and Ann Richards didn’t get where they were by being liked by everyone. They got there by saying what they meant and doing the work anyway. HD26 has spent years handing Republicans a seat nobody’s seriously contested. The district would just keep voting against its own interests forever. Come November, we’ll find out if they’re finally ready for a change.

You can find out more about Eliz Markowitz on her website, Facebook, and Instagram.

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• 51 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next two months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Caitlin Rourk?

Caitlin Rourk is the Democratic nominee for Texas’s 10th Congressional District, a sprawling stretch of 13 counties running from the Austin suburbs out through the rural expanse toward Houston. She’s an Army officer, a mom of two, and someone fed up with watching a Congress built for the loudest and richest who ignore everyone else.

Both of Rourk’s grandfathers fought in WWII, then came home and helped rebuild the country’s infrastructure. Her parents were public school teachers. She’s spent more than a decade living and working in Central Texas, and her career has bounced between the private sector, public policy, and the military.

Rourk describes a lifelong pull toward service, earning her commission as a Military Intelligence Officer through Army Officer Candidate School. She served full-time in the Texas Army National Guard at Joint Forces Headquarters in Austin. She was on the ground for natural disaster response, the COVID-19 crisis, civil unrest operations, and multiple border mobilizations. She also served in the US Army Reserve.

Rourk’s pitch is that Congress needs more parents, veterans, and neighbors, and fewer people fluent only in the language of special interests. It’s not a complicated message, but it’s one this district hasn’t heard much from the people actually representing it.

The district.

TX10 got completely rebuilt in the 2025 mid-decade redistricting. The seat is an absurd gerrymander that snakes from Austin and includes Brazos, Walker, Grimes, Burleson, Lee, Leon, Madison, Houston, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, plus slivers of Bastrop. Demographically: 59.8% Anglo, 21.1% Hispanic, 10.4% Black, 6.9% Asian by total population. And the voting-age numbers skew even whiter (62.5% Anglo VAP).

As of March 2026, Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rated it Solid or Safe Republican, or a +10 (R), but in this environment, Democrats are feeling BIG under a +10 (R). This was not drawn to be competitive. There isn’t a Democrat in Texas who agrees with that assessment right now… well, maybe the pessimists.

The facts:

• Brazos County (College Station/Bryan) is the wild card. This is a university town with a growing professional and academic class sitting inside otherwise deep-red farmland.

• Travis County’s slice is reliably Democratic, just not big enough to carry the district alone.

• Everything else is rural, white, and about as movable as the Alamo.

• The Hispanic population (21.1%) is nearly double its share of registered voters. Spanish-surname registration sits around 10% of the rolls. That’s an organizing target. A huge chunk of that population isn’t on the voter rolls yet.

2024 general turnout: 66.6%. 2022 midterm turnout: 51.6%. That drop-off is the whole ballgame… if this district behaves like a normal midterm, Republicans coast. If anger, base enthusiasm, and a genuinely bad GOP field push turnout closer to presidential-year levels, the math gets less comfortable for the incumbent party fast.

Trump’s net approval nationally is sitting around -20, among the worst of any president at this point in a term dating back to Truman, and the generic congressional ballot has Democrats up roughly 6-7 points.

Historically, that kind of environment produces real seat losses for the president’s party. Democrats are now leading Latino voters by 23 points on the generic House ballot, more than double their 2024 margin, and in Texas specifically, Trump’s disapproval among Latino voters has hit 67%, with Democrats opening a 54-28 generic ballot lead. Trump’s net approval is near a record low.

A wave year turns “impossible” into “expensive for Republicans to ignore.” It means Rourk’s military/bipartisan profile is built for exactly the kind of district-crossover voter this seat would need actually to move. This is not a top-tier pickup, but it’s the kind of seat that turns purple on the way to turning blue somewhere else, and Rourk running a credible campaign here forces resources the GOP would rather spend elsewhere. This seat could surprise everyone.

The Republican.

Chris Gober. We talked about him. He’s the multi-millionaire who directed the gerrymander that created TX10, which he now runs. He was also Elon Musk’s lawyer, and his firm did the legal work that let Viktor Orbán’s propaganda operation set up shop in the US.

Gober likes to introduce himself as a small-town boy from Throckmorton, Texas (population 700-something), hardscrabble Texas grit, the whole bit. What he leaves out is that his parents owned the bank that owned the oil wells, so when he talks about working the oil fields, he means he pushed pencils for the family business. He also doesn’t mention that Throckmorton has a documented history as a sundown county, one that ran Black residents out and kept them out for the better part of a century, which is a strange well to draw “timeless conservative values” from.

In Caitlin Rourk’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Rourk, based on previous reader polls, along with her answers.

Q: Should Congress pass a federal $17/hour minimum wage, indexed to inflation?

I support raising and indexing the federal minimum wage so it better reflects the cost of living and the economic realities facing working families. I’m open to a $17/hr figure, provided it’s phased in responsibly and accounts for the impact on small businesses and different regional economies.

Q: Would you support major tax reform, including raising taxes on billionaires and large corporations?

Yes, making the tax code work for working families will require closing loopholes and ensuring the wealthiest Americans and large corporations pay their fair share.

Q: Do you support ending U.S. military aid to countries with ongoing human rights abuses, including Israel and Egypt?

I support conditioning U.S. military aid on compliance with U.S. and international humanitarian law, regardless of the country receiving it. When governments engage in human rights abuses, the United States should be willing to suspend or withhold assistance. We can’t keep writing blank checks. In Israel’s case, I support withholding offensive weapons while maintaining narrowly defined defensive assistance. The same human rights and accountability standards should apply to Egypt and every other recipient of U.S. military aid.

Q: Should Congress ban corporate PAC money and implement public campaign financing?

Yes, I support strengthening campaign finance laws to limit the role of big money and Super PACs in politics. It’s part of a broader reform agenda I’m running on to return power and accountability to the people we represent, including more transparency around dark money and lobbying, banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks, and strengthening ethics and disclosure rules. Running for office has also shown me firsthand how broken our campaign finance system is. Stronger public financing would reduce the influence of a small handful of wealthy donors while allowing candidates to spend less time raising money and more time engaging with and solving problems for their constituents.

Q: Do you support DC statehood, Puerto Rico self-determination, and expanding voting rights through federal law?

Yes, I support expanding and protecting voting rights through federal law. I support DC statehood so its residents have voting representation in Congress, and I support Puerto Rico’s right to self-determination so its people can decide their own political future.

Bonus Question: How will you engage and energize disillusioned or low-turnout voters, especially young people, communities of color, and the working class?

Our campaign has taken a “deep canvassing” approach to voter engagement. Instead of showing up with a script and trying to convince someone, we start with questions: What’s been on your mind? What’s worrying you? What do you wish people in Washington understood about your community? This has allowed us to have long conversations with disillusioned voters not just about policies or me as a candidate, but about voting at all – and how we can make change together in a system that can often feel like it’s written you off. Listening - actually listening - has been our key here, because many of these communities feel especially unrepresented

Rourk’s answers tell you she wants billionaires taxed, PACs out of politics, and aid to human-rights abusers conditioned regardless of who’s asking.

That’s a message built for the kind of voter TX10 is stuffed with, and Republicans have spent a decade assuming would never show up. That includes veterans, parents, working people who’ve been organized around instead of organized for.

R+10 in this environment isn’t nothing, and it isn’t everything either. It’s a district where Trump’s underwater by 20 points, where Hispanic voters are swinging back harder and faster than either party expected, and where turnout decides who wins. Gober is betting his fortune says otherwise. Rourk is betting that showing up in Bryan and Huntsville, one conversation at a time, beats a man who had to buy his own nomination.

We’ll find out in November. Until then, the seat is exactly as competitive as the people willing to work it make it. Donate, or if you’re in the district, go knock some doors.

You can learn more about Caitlin Rourk on her website, Facebook, Instagram, and Bluesky.

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“25 years ago today.” How many social media posts and articles have you read today that started that way? People recall where they were, what they were doing, and how it impacted them. We’ve now even reached an era of adults who weren’t even alive when 9/11 happened. Everyone has their own story, but unfortunately, for too many in America, that story post-9/11 has been about fear and hate.

Yesterday, Governor Greg Abbott was at that clown show in Dallas, bragging about how he banned the Muslim Brotherhood and CAIR as “foreign terrorist organizations.”

He did this back in November 2025, in the same sloppy manner that Republicans do everything. Fact-checking Abbott’s proclamation is problematic for him:

1. A Texas governor has no legal authority to designate a foreign terrorist organization. That’s exclusively a federal power.

2. CAIR has never been charged with anything. It’s all about an accusation involving a 30-year-old FBI liaison.

3. CAIR has successfully sued Abbott three separate times over First Amendment violations tied to pro-Palestinian advocacy, and frames this proclamation as retaliation for that advocacy.

All of this is part of Republicans’ latest ramp-up of Islamophobia and anti-Muslim hate. Of course, Abbott is just pandering to the base.

This week, do what got under my skin, almost more than anything? More than the RNC, more than the high price of gas, and even more than Abbott’s latest political theater? The way the far-right was treating Mayor Mamdani regarding the 9/11 memorial.

They didn’t want him to attend because he was Muslim.

Guiliani also made the cable rounds, saying Mamdani shouldn’t show up because he reads a different book. Like it’s 1952. It’s so archaic. If you want to know what Conservatives are trying to “conserve,” it’s this. Whiteness. Christianity. Hate. Conformity.

As you would expect, Mamdani responded with complete grace.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani has about a 60% approval rating.

For contrast:

• LA Mayor Karen Bass: 24% approval.

• Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson: 23% approval.

Maybe the culture wars are finally failing. Wouldn’t that be grand? If Republicans finally just minded their own business and allowed everyone in America freedom and liberty…

This week, in Dallas, Islamophobia was all the rage.

The Republican candidate from Michigan attacked Abdul El-Sayed at the RNC over it. The Dallas Morning News released an article yesterday, talking about the sharp rise in Islamophobia. Then, there was Abbott’s tirade.

According to recent reporting from the New York Times, Texas Muslims are experiencing a sharp increase in daily and institutionalized Islamophobia driven by state political rhetoric and new policy changes. It’s mostly coming from our government, government officials, and the Republican candidates running to represent us.

Abbott claims EPIC City “requires anybody who bought a lot there to abide by Sharia law.” That’s a flat-out lie (documented, on-camera), per Chaudhary, per the DOJ’s own investigation. He built a law around a premise that doesn’t exist, then went on TV to lie about it anyway, because why let a failed federal investigation get in the way of a good moral panic?

And the strategist’s line at the end is the real giveaway. This is just “the next logical step” now that the border’s not doing the job anymore. That’s the most honest sentence a professional Republican operative has probably ever said. That Muslims are being fed into the outrage machine as a scapegoat replacement for migrants at the border, since the base has moved on from that.

Meanwhile, a half-million Texans are watching their governor build a legislative career out of a threat he made up, using their zip codes as the prop.

Republicans think playing with people’s lives is “just politics.”

Representative Lalani (D-HD76) said on Houston Public Media recently that his colleagues pull him aside in the coffee room and say, “No harm done, it’s just politics.” That’s the whole rot right there.

They know exactly what they’re doing. “Just politics” is what you say when you’ve made peace with being cruel for a paycheck.

Even Lalani said that when the real issues fail, when there are no actual answers on healthcare, on affordability, on flood preparedness, they go looking for a scapegoat and pick the weakest community they can find.

And, in Texas, we see it over and over again. The immigrant community. The LGBTQ community. The Black community. This month, the Muslim community. With the GOP, it’s always “the others.”

If you’re reading this, they may have already come for your community. If not, your community may be next.

Twenty-five years later, and the most honest way to honor the people we lost on 9/11 is refusing to let their deaths keep getting weaponized against people who had nothing to do with it.

Nineteen men committed an atrocity in 2001. They do not get to be the permanent, standing indictment of 3.5 million American Muslims, forever, on a loop, every election cycle, in perpetuity.

The Muslim doctors who spent that day in the towers with everyone else. The Muslim first responders who went in. The Muslim Americans who buried friends and coworkers just like the rest of us. They get to just be Americans who lost people too.

If your version of “never forget” somehow always lands on “and therefore be suspicious of your Muslim neighbor,” you didn’t learn anything from that day.

So here’s what “never forget” actually should look like. Show up. 🫵🏻 You physically get off your couch.

A block walk or phone bank is happening near you this weekend. Find it. Check Mobilize or check your county Democratic Party’s page. Knock the doors. Make the calls.

Republicans in this state have made their whole platform “the others.” Immigrants. Queer kids. Black voters. Now Muslims. It will never stop being someone, because scapegoating is the entire strategy. The only thing that ends it is enough of us showing up loud enough, often enough, that fear stops being a winning bet.

So get up. Go find your block walk. We don’t have time to sit this one out.

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Today was a big day for Democrats in Dallas. We started the day with the Texas Progressive Legislative Caucus, which held the “People’s Hearing,” a discussion about groceries, rent, tuition... basically, the high prices Texans have suffered under thirty years of Republican rule.

It started early. Every House member there was from the Progressive Legislative Caucus, so you know they were all principled, and it was a good discussion. And I got to see our progressive queen, Representative Ana-Maria Rodriguez-Ramos:

Several Democratic candidates, along with small business owners and members of the public, showed up to testify. Including:

• HD33 candidate Orlando Lopez (D)

• HD64 candidate Julie Evans (D)

• HD65 candidate Detrick Deburr (D)

• HD108 candidate Allison Mitchell (D)

• SD02 candidate Keenen Colbert (D)

I did live-stream the entire thing on TikTok, but here is the replay if you’re interested:

Then, there was a march on the RNC.

Here are some of the signs I saw.

This was about 20 minutes before the march. Notice the Vikki Goodwin bus?

Because Vikki Goodwin is a real one.

Most Democratic representatives and candidates today were doing press conferences and meeting with influencers. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but Vikki Goodwin showed up on the ground with the people. With hundreds of left-leaning Dallasites marching in the streets against Trump’s war/agenda/economy/bullshit. She was the only candidate to do that. And the groups there were generally further left than the groups at the later evening rally.

That’s something that not a lot of people always pick up on, but to win Texas, you have to win the left, and by doing so, in turn, you pick up non-voters. If you can get them to pay attention. Vikki Goodwin gets that. Clayton Tucker gets that. Some of the candidates we have running really understand Texas populism at its core.

Vikki Goodwin and I, today, before the march:

Then during the march:

The Texas House Democratic Caucus held a press conference.

They talked about how we’re about to flip Texas, and how Trump’s redistricting scheme will backfire. There was a lot of discussion about the failure of the last 30 years of Republican governance in Texas, high prices, crumbling infrastructure, and starving public schools.

John Bryant reminded us how 70% of Texas students are being educated in a school district with a deficit budget, while billions of our tax dollars are being funneled to the GOP’s voucher program.

Cassandra Garcia-Hernandez said Republicans have stripped cities of local control and that communities all over Texas can’t decide their own needs because of the Republican government in Austin.

Representative-elect Junior Ezeonu discussed the affordability crisis, the minimum wage, the rising gas prices, and how Texans can’t buy houses.

Salman Bhojani talked about the SBOE’s attack on education and Republicans’ attack on history, civil rights, and freedom of thought.

Linda Garcia remarked on how much of Texas’ economy immigrants contribute to.

Mihaela Plesa told reporters the quickest way to find out about the affordability crisis is to open the Nextdoor app.

Then, Gene Wu reminisced about the quorum break in Chicago and why Democrats’ hands were forced. He said Republicans lied, cheated, and stole through gerrymandering.

When Ana-Maria Rodriguez-Ramos came to the mic, she told the story about how, when Republicans were trying to erase Hispanic and African-American history, she changed her name back to her roots.

This moment was so fantastic; even if you don’t watch the 40-minute press conference, these 45 seconds are worth the gander:

Notice how, when Rodriguez-Ramos is talking, the other four women legislators are looking at her? 😍 I love seeing women supporting other women.

We the People rally.

I didn’t get to make it to the rally tonight, and I’m disappointed with some of the footage. The best I could find is a Fox link that starts around 34 mins in and doesn’t include all the speakers. But it does get:

• Kendall Scudder

• Beto

• Alisa Simmons

• Marc Veasey

All of this because some old guy who poops in his pants wanted to come to my hometown today. Or yesterday. And traffic was total shit.

Trump is here because he’s underwater, and he’s underwater because it’s worse here. In Texas, it’s always worse. Getting squeezed from every direction, rising tariffs, a shrinking immigrant labor force gutting construction and agriculture, and an electricity market that’s gone rogue. AI data centers and crypto mining are eating the grid and our water, and let’s not even mention healthcare or infrastructure.

The state of the union is prices up, coverage down, the grid one hot July away from a repeat of 2021, and an EPA that’s decided the planet cooking us alive is somebody else’s problem.

And Republicans want to party.

None of this fixes itself. It’s thirty years of choices, and 2026 is a chance to make different ones. So go vote next month, tell your friends who don’t pay attention that groceries cost what they cost because of decisions made in Austin and DC, and keep an eye on HD33, HD64, HD65, HD108, and SD02, because these are the races that flip this state.

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Edit: Double fun fact: I don’t always catch every typo.

Fun fact: Did you know Dallas County is the third-bluest county in Texas, after Travis and Presidio Counties?

Which goes to show how dumb and out of touch both Trump and Texas Republicans are. Because a few months back, didn’t Abbott say he wanted to spend millions in Harris County to flip it back red? Yet, only last month Abbott’s advisor, Dave Carney, spoke about spending his entire war chest on down-ballot House races. Texas Republicans are in trouble, and they are holding this shindig in one of the bluest areas in the state.

Why Dallas?

This had to have been Trump’s idea. He’s really old, and he probably remembers how Dallas elevated Ronald Reagan and the Moral Majority in the early 1980s, helping them secure GOP dominance in the era of synthesized keyboards, neon colors, and cocaine highballs.

Or maybe it was because the John Birch Society’s most active and well-funded chapter came from Dallas in the 1960s and had a huge impact on shaping the landscape for modern fundamental right.

Or perhaps it’s because Trump has said his pastor is Robert Jeffress of First Baptist Dallas, the former home of segregation-era preacher W.A. Criswell.

But all of those are bygone eras. And Dallas is a blue city, in a blue county, with a mostly non-white population. So, is Trump’s little “RNC stunt” going to have any impact on the direction of the ballots in Dallas? Probably not.

Most Texas Republicans aren’t even showing up.

I shit you not. This whole thing is being labeled as so toxic that they only got a handful of Texas Republicans to show up, and most of them are carpetbaggers.

Here’s the scheduled line-up:

But who cares about that?

What are Democrats doing?

Democrats are holding a huge rally tomorrow night as a counter-action.

The march before the rally starts at 1 pm.

I will be in Dallas, going live on likely TikTok, but perhaps other platforms tomorrow. But I’ll have plenty of clips to bring you later.

The GOP flying into the third-bluest county in Texas, dragging a busload of D-list carpetbaggers behind them, to throw a party nobody local RSVP’d to, while their own strategist is out here telling anyone who’ll listen that the real fight is down-ballot, not top-of-ticket theater. That’s a party running a con on itself.

Dallas didn’t ask for this. Dallas doesn’t need this. And tomorrow, while Trump’s people are busy posing for cameras in a county that already told them no, Dallas is going to march and rally right back at them, in numbers the RNC couldn’t dream of drawing.

A plague doesn’t get invited. It just shows up, does some damage, and leaves everyone else to clean up the mess. Stay tuned.

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In 1973, OPEC began an oil embargo on the United States and other countries in retaliation for America’s military support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. That year, Dallas residents were furious over 40¢ gas. The city council even discussed 50mph speed limits and banning Sunday driving.

Meanwhile, a few hundred miles south, in what was called the first environmental strike in America, 1,800 members of the Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers at Shell Oil’s Deer Park plant struck for the right to access records to help monitor the workplace environment.

Shell Oil Company moved its headquarters from New York to Houston in 1970, settling into the newly built One Shell Plaza, so by the time of the 1973 strike, Shell’s corporate HQ had been sitting in Texas for three years already.

What was interesting, when researching this, was how many old news sources there were about the oil embargo, but how few I could find about this strike, which included more than 4,000 Shell workers nationwide and took place at the exact same time as the embargo. While the “first environmental strike in America” did get some coverage, it was obscure because, in America, there has only ever been one narrative.

The embargo.

OPEC’s Arab members shut off the tap, prices at the pump roughly quadrupled within months, and the federal government responded by capping prices and rationing. Odd-even license plate days. Gas stations running dry by noon. Nixon lowered the national speed limit to 55 and called it “Project Independence.”

None of that solved anything. But it gave Americans a target for their anger. OPEC. It was “the Arabs.” It was some vague, foreign, cartel-shaped villain a comfortable distance away. Nobody was putting “we’re mad too” bumper stickers on their car about Shell, or the fact that the companies actually setting American gas prices were, at that very moment, headquartered a short drive from where the bumper stickers were being sold. The anger flowed outward, toward a target 7,000 miles away, instead of inward, toward the companies that had spent the last decade consolidating market power that makes a supply shock this painful in the first place.

That’s the emotional shape of 1973’s most famous story. Scarcity, fear, and a villain conveniently located somewhere else.

It’s also, as it turns out, not the only story Texas produced that year.

Shell, Houston, and the health-and-safety strike.

Shell was at One Shell Plaza in downtown Houston. Fully a Texas company by address, tax bill, and skyline presence, long before this strike ever started.

In January of that year, the Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers pulled more than 4,000 members off the job at five refineries and three chemical plants across the country. Shell wouldn’t bargain over health and safety, so the union walked and called it what it was: “The first national strike of its kind in American history,” built around the idea that workers had a right to know what was slowly killing them on the job.

Periodic medical exams. Access to mortality data. A seat at the table when it came to what, exactly, they were being exposed to for eight, ten, twelve hours a day. That’s it. Just the right to see the numbers the company already had.

Shell said no. And when the union’s national unity started to crack under the weight of that no, it cracked in Texas. Shell found its opening at the Deer Park plant, just outside Houston, and cut a separate, weaker deal there, one with non-binding safety language that let the company walk away having conceded almost nothing. The rest of the national strike collapsed under it. By May, a broke union settled for a fraction of what it went on strike for in January.

Texas was where the company found the seam, and where the seam gave way first.

Have we learned by now?

There’s always a version that comes from our government. It’s the same version that comes from these big oil companies, or these big data companies, or whatever is killing us the most at the moment. Prices. Patriotism. Supply and demand. Forces beyond anyone’s control. And there’s the version it keeps for itself, in memos and closed-door negotiations, where it already has the numbers and has already decided you don’t get to see them.

In 1973, while under an oil embargo, 4,000 oil workers went on strike. It barely made it out of the trade press. And why were they striking? For the mortality database Shell wouldn’t hand over to its own workers. Decades later, it’s climate data.

The Senate Budget Committee’s investigation into Big Oil’s climate deception found the same instinct. Internal Shell documents from 2013 to 2018 show the company running public ad campaigns touting net-zero emissions goals, while telling its own employees and lobbyists, privately, not to imply that net-zero was actually a target. Exxon’s internal records showed the same double game. So did BP’s, when it came to marketing natural gas as clean.

Say one thing to the public. Know another thing internally.

Exxon is headquartered in Spring. Shell and BP are headquartered in Houston. Fifty years after Deer Park, the corporate return addresses haven’t moved. And ever since then, ever since the discovery of Spindletop, Texas politicians have been doing these companies favors.

From the lungs to the atmosphere.

In 1973, the ask was about workplace air. Periodic exams, mortality data, a seat at the table. Shell said no.

Fifty years later, the ask is about the planet’s air. Same refusal. Same instinct to keep the internal numbers internal, right up until they can’t anymore.

The UN’s latest report puts us at 1.5°C, the line the world drew for itself in Paris, which is going to be crossed within the next few years. The best-case scenario now peaks around 1.8°C, and that’s the good outcome. There are no good outcomes above 1.5°C, the report says, in case anyone was still confused about the stakes. Under actual current policy, the world is on track for 2.8°C by 2100.

It’s the same “we told you it was fine” dynamic, just run at planetary scale and in slow motion. Deer Park workers wanted to know what they were breathing before it killed them. The rest of us are finding out what we’ve been breathing after the fact, from a UN report instead of a mortality database, decades too late to bargain over it.

Texas produces more CO2 than any other state in the country, 669.9 million metric tons in 2023 alone, more than double the next-largest industrial contributor. The company that fought its own workers over the right to see the numbers is headquartered in the state generating more of the thing those numbers were trying to prevent than anywhere else in America.

This is about Texas.

It’s a story about who gets told, and who gets to find out later.

In Houston’s Fifth Ward and Kashmere Gardens, historically Black neighborhoods, state health investigators confirmed a childhood cancer cluster near a former rail yard, with lymphoblastic leukemia rates nearly five times the baseline in the census tract closest to the contamination.

During Hurricane Harvey, 93 percent of all known toxic emissions released in Harris County came from within a four-mile radius of Manchester, a predominantly Hispanic neighborhood that makes up less than 5 percent of the county’s geography.

And out in the Eagle Ford, where the fracking boom hit hardest, wastewater disposal wells were found to be twice as common in neighborhoods that were 80% or more Black and Hispanic than in majority-white ones.

It’s the same mechanism in the neighborhoods closest to the refineries whose headquarters this whole piece has been circling. Deer Park workers had to strike just to see the numbers Shell already had on them. Manchester residents just got the smoke.

Fifty years on, the throughline is that the state hosting these headquarters has spent half a century letting the companies decide what Texans get to know, and when.

The villain had a Houston zip code the whole time.

It’s Labor Day. Fifty-three years and a couple of months since a bunch of guys in Deer Park walked off the job because Shell wouldn’t tell them what they were breathing, and fifty-three years since Dallas drivers were slapping “we’re mad too” stickers on their bumpers over 40-cent gas.

Both were mad about the same year. Neither was mad at the same target.

The anger in 1973 flew straight over Houston and landed on OPEC, on “the Arabs,” seven thousand miles away, who at least had the decency to be foreign. Nobody put a bumper sticker on their car about the big oil company that had the mortality data and wouldn’t hand it over.

The company that fought its own workers over the right to see the numbers in 1973 is still headquartered in Houston. So is BP. Exxon’s just up the road now. The internal memos changed from mortality data to net-zero targets, but the zip codes never moved, and neither did the instinct. Say one thing in public, know another thing in private, let the public version do the work of protecting the internal one.

Texas Republicans have run this state uninterrupted since 1995. Thirty-one years of letting the companies decide what Texans get to know and when, whether that’s a refinery worker in Deer Park or a family in Manchester finding out after the flood what was already in their soil. Thirty-one years of a legislature that meets every session and finds new ways to make it easier for the industry and harder for everyone standing downwind of it.

And before anyone emails me, it’s true that the Democrats in Texas in the 1970s and 1980s were all pro-fossil fuel, but that era is gone. The GOP now owns that title, and under their reign they’ve only made it worse.

This November, Greg Abbott is on the ballot next to Gina Hinojosa. Paxton is on the ballot next to James Talarico. Your Congressperson is on the ballot. Your state rep is on the ballot. Your school board is on the ballot.

The anger was always aimed at the wrong villain, on schedule, by design. That’s not an accident either. Fifty-three years is long enough to notice the pattern. In November, vote for people who recognize who the villains are, know we’re in a climate emergency, and are ready to take it seriously.

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This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next two months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Odus Evbagharu?

Odus Evbagharu is the son of immigrants who grew up in Cy-Fair, went through Cy-Fair public schools, and came out the other end with a University of Houston degree and a small business to his name.

In 2021, he became the youngest and first Black person elected Chair of the Harris County Democratic Party. While in the role, he ran one of the most inclusive voter contact operations the county has seen. He helped deliver the first Democratic supermajority on Harris County Commissioners Court since the 1970s. Then he went on to serve as Chief of Staff in HD135, under Jon Rosenthal.

His platform, “A Plan for US,” includes fully funded public schools, Medicaid expansion, reproductive freedom, living wages, union protections, and infrastructure.

The district.

HD135 is 82% non-Anglo, 48% Hispanic, 24% Black, 11% Asian, and more than half the households speak a language other than English at home. Per capita income sits at $32,400, well under the state’s $40,752, and renters here are paying an average of $1,797 a month, which is more than the statewide average rent, in a district where income is lower than the statewide average.

In 2024, Rosenthal ran unopposed and pulled 100% of the vote in HD135. Meanwhile, Harris carried the district’s presidential vote 52.8% to 45%, a tighter margin than you’d expect from a seat nobody thought was worth fighting for. Turnout was 56% of registered voters. Statewide, turnout was 61.3%. So this “safe blue district” actually turned out below the state average in a presidential year.

Which is exactly why it matters for November. Letitia Plummer is running countywide for Harris County Judge against Republican Orlando Sanchez. A margin that thin means every precinct’s turnout counts, including the ones inside HD135 that Democrats have gotten comfortable ignoring because “it’s safe.” Add in the statewide ballot. Allred outperformed Harris here in 2024, pulling 56.4% to Cruz’s 40.4%, so this electorate clearly shows up for the right candidate when motivated.

HD135 is a safe blue district, but turnout is everything.

The Republican.

The incumbent for this district is Jon Rosenthal (D). However, he is running for Railroad Commissioner.

The Republican running in this district, Liz Ramos, had only $500 on hand at the last filing deadline. Odus Evbagharu had over $42,000. Which probably says a lot about the kind of race they’re having in the district.

I checked her out, and her website is a standard Republican “Gun, God, and Country,” and on her Facebook, she’s pushing out racist propaganda.

For those who weren’t around for SB17, I covered the debate extensively. And Republican ads against Talarico completely mischaracterize what the vote was. And it was racist, and it was targeting certain people of certain ethnicities.

Liz Ramos is a typical Republican, unfit for governing a multi-racial state like Texas.

In Odus Evbagharu’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Evbagharu, based on previous reader polls, along with his answers.

Q: Do you support a statewide minimum wage increase to at least $15/hour?

Yes. I support raising Texas’ minimum wage to at least $15 an hour. No Texan working full-time should struggle to afford housing, groceries, healthcare, and other basic necessities. My campaign is centered on building prosperity for working families through living wages and lowering everyday costs. As a small business owner, I also understand the pressures employers face, so I support a responsible phase-in paired with expanded access to capital and resources that help local businesses grow while paying workers what they deserve.

Q: Should Texas end tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations?

Yes, in their current form. Texas should end blank-check tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations that can afford to invest here without special treatment. Economic development incentives should be targeted, transparent, and tied to measurable benefits like good-paying jobs, local hiring, and real community investment. If companies receive public support, taxpayers deserve strong accountability, enforceable commitments, and clawbacks when those promises are not kept.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

I oppose school vouchers and efforts to divert public dollars away from our neighborhood public schools. Texas should fully fund the schools that serve every child, increase educator pay, strengthen special education and student support services, and give districts the resources they need to succeed. Public education is a public responsibility, and taxpayer dollars should come with transparency, accountability, and a commitment to serving all students.

Q: Should Texas guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students, regardless of income?

No child should have to learn on an empty stomach, and no family should have to navigate unnecessary barriers just to make sure their child is fed at school. I support universal free school meals because they reduce stigma, support student health and learning, and ease costs for working families. Texas should treat nutritious school meals as part of the basic infrastructure of public education.

Q: Would you support redirecting state subsidies from fossil fuels to fund community-owned solar, wind, and battery projects in low-income and rural areas?

I support shifting state subsidies toward community-owned solar, wind, and battery projects, particularly in low-income and rural areas that often face higher energy burdens and reliability challenges. Public incentives should help lower household energy costs, strengthen local resilience, and expand access to distributed energy resources. Any transition should also protect grid reliability, support workers, and ensure communities have a meaningful role in how projects are developed.

Bonus Question: Who are your political role models, living or dead?

Barack Obama, Muhammad Ali, Raphael Warnock, Nelson Mandela, and Shirley Chisholm. I admire leaders who combine courage with conviction and never lose sight of the people they serve. Each of them, in different ways, showed that leadership is about more than holding office. It is about inspiring people, standing firm in your values, challenging injustice, and using your voice to create opportunity for others.

Odus Evbagharu is walking into HD135 because he’s spent years doing the work that has built his reputation as someone you can count on.

From organizing a county party and delivering a commissioners court supermajority to sitting in the room as Chief of Staff. His answers on wages, vouchers, school meals, and energy are straightforward and to the point.

His opponent has $500 in the bank and a Facebook feed full of the same racist mischaracterizations Republicans have been running for years, in a district that’s 80% non-Anglo.

Vote like the margin matters, because somewhere down this same ballot, it already has.

You can learn more about Odus Evbagharu from website, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Threads.

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• 58 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

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• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next two months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is JJ Dominguez?

Jennifer “JJ” Dominguez has spent nearly thirty years as a Licensed Clinical Social Worker. She currently chairs the Wilson County Democratic Party.

Dominguez grew up in Illinois, moved to Texas twenty years ago, and put down roots in Floresville, a rural community in the district she’s now trying to represent. She married into a family with a Mexican immigrant father-in-law, and together they raised four kids who, between them, are a Navy Seabee, an Army veteran, an engineer, and an Activities Director at a skilled-nursing facility.

Her interest in public service started in high school, when a government teacher pushed her to graduate early and take an internship at the Illinois State Capitol. She went on to serve as a Page in the Illinois Senate. Then she went on to spend fourteen years as a dialysis social worker in rural Texas, sitting with patients while they figured out how to survive both a terminal diagnosis and a mountain of medical bills. She’s currently providing therapy to immigrants trying to build a life here.

The district.

HD31 covers eleven counties strung across South Texas from the Eagle Ford Shale down to the Rio Grande, including Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Duval, La Salle, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Kenedy, and Wilson. The total population is 72% Hispanic. Fourteen-year-olds and under make up 27% of the district. This is a young, brown, working-class district that Republicans have owned for one reason. Ryan Guillen switched teams in 2021 for a 1.5 million payoff, the moment redistricting made switching profitable, and hasn’t really had a formidable challenger since.

Median household income in this district runs well below the state average. Nearly a quarter of the population, 24.5%, lives in poverty. Educational attainment tells the same story. Only 17.4% of adults hold a bachelor’s degree, compared to 33.8% statewide, while a quarter of the district didn’t finish high school. More than half the district (55.8%) speaks a language other than English at home. This is not a district built for a party whose signature domestic policy achievement is siphoning public school money into private school vouchers for people who can already afford private school.

Public sector employment runs almost 23%, well above the state’s 14%, so state budget fights and public sector layoffs land harder here than in most districts. More than a third of households (34.2%) draw Social Security income, and households on SSI run more than double the state rate.

Starr County alone holds 35% of the district and the single largest bloc of votes. It is 97.8% Hispanic. Wilson County, JJ’s home turf and the seat of the county party she chairs, holds 49,753 people but flips the demographic script entirely. 56% Anglo, only 40.5% Hispanic, and the most reliably conservative pocket in the district. Everything else is small, rural, and 75% to 98% Hispanic. Starr County is the whole ballgame.

Turnout in 2024 was 58%. Registration rate against VAP is nearly 89%, which means the problem here was never getting people on the rolls. It’s getting them to the polls and giving them someone worth showing up for.

Here’s the sobering math is in 2024, Guillen ran unopposed. The last time Democrats actually fielded a candidate, 2022, Martha Gutierrez lost to Guillen 71.24% to 28.76%. I’m not sure she even had a website. For comparison, top-of-ticket Democrats in 2024 ran ahead of that. Colin Allred took 34.7% against Cruz; Kamala Harris took 31.3%. So the district’s ceiling for a generic, reasonably funded statewide Democrat sits in the low-to-mid thirties, while the last actual HD31 candidate underperformed even that.

What does it actually take to flip this seat? Assume turnout close to 2024’s 70,000-plus in a wave year, or lower in an ordinary midterm, that math still requires finding somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 additional points of vote share compared to the 2022 baseline.

First, this is a true midterm with Abbott and the voucher fight on the ballot in every school district in this state, including one where 93% of kids go to public school. That is a mobilizing issue in a way presidential-year abstractions aren’t.

Second, the party is banking on Hispanic voters, who cratered toward Trump in 2020 and 2024, snapping back toward Democrats in a non-Trump midterm. If that thesis holds anywhere in Texas, it holds in a district that’s 72% Hispanic with a candidate who’s spent 28 years doing direct social work in these same rural counties. If it doesn’t hold, HD31 is exactly where that failure will be most visible, because Starr County alone can swing the outcome.

Third, Dominguez is the sitting Wilson County Democratic Party chair running in the one county in this district where Democrats are structurally weakest, which means she’s spent years building exactly the kind of local infrastructure a 2022-style blowout suggests never existed.

None of that guarantees a flip. It means this is a real investment and that Dominguez needs both real money and the Hispanic-vote reversion the party is counting on actually to materialize in the numbers.

The incumbent.

Traitor and party switcher, Ryan Guillen, served nine terms as a Democrat, from 2003 to 2021. In October 2021, Greg Abbott signed new maps that made HD31 dramatically more Republican than the version Guillen had just won by 17 points. Six weeks later, Guillen stood in a Floresville coffee shop, flanked by Abbott and House Speaker Dade Phelan, and announced he was switching parties. That election cycle, this South Texas House candidate pulled in over $1.5 million in donations.

His soul was for sale, and he made it that much harder for the rest of Texas to trust the “Conservative Democrats” along the border. And most of us saw the switch coming, which is another reason why it’s hard to trust the Democrats who vote like him. As a sitting Democrat, Guillen was one of only seven House Democrats to vote for permitless carry. He backed the state’s near-total abortion ban. He voted to bar transgender student-athletes from competing consistent with their gender identity. And when House Democrats broke quorum in 2021 to fight the GOP’s voting restrictions, Guillen stayed home. He did all of this while still technically wearing a “D” next to his name, which means the party switch was in the making for a long time.

Abbott said it at the press conference. “Everybody has known that Ryan Guillen is really a Republican who is attached to the wrong label.”

By using Abbott’s logic, progressives need to work much harder to get Richard Raymonds and Eddie Morales of the world primaried out before they switch, too.

I digress, because the Guillen situation still infuriates me, and it should infuriate you. Guillen spent his legislative career chairing committees under four different Speakers. He built his seniority, relationships, and name recognition that comes with that as a Democrat, using Democratic voters’ trust. Then, when his political position was threatened, he sold his soul without even blinking.

HD31 is a 72% Hispanic, 24.5%-poverty district, and half the time nobody even bothered to put a name on the ballot against him. That’s not a district Republicans earned. That’s a district Democrats forfeited to a man who sold his own out from under them the moment it stopped being convenient to stay.

In JJ Dominguez’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Dominguez, based on previous reader polls, along with her answers.

Q: Do you support a statewide minimum wage increase to at least $15/hour?

Yes. As an AFL-CIO COPE-endorsed candidate, I support raising the minimum wage in Texas to at least $15/hour. Based on the education they provided candidates earlier this year, I would argue that the statewide minimum wage should be closer to $21/hour. The hourly rate needs to be indexed for inflation. By raising the statewide minimum wage, it would offer significant benefits to workers, communities and the broader state economy. Low-wage workers struggle to meet basic needs like childcare, housing, food, and other necessities. Employers in Texas who voluntarily pay higher wages often find that it attracts and retains workers, leading to better employee morale and reduced turnover. Increased wages for low-wage workers boost consumer spending, which can stimulate local economies. Raising the minimum wage will narrow wage gaps based on gender and race/ethnicity, as women and people of color are disproportionately represented in low-wage jobs.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

Yes. The voucher program stripped away $1 billion from the 5.4 million public school children to benefit 102,037 children in private or homeschool programs (57% of which were already enrolled in these programs). In House District 31, there have only been 143 student applications awarded. The current representative sold out to Republican pressure to vote for the voucher program, despite the fact that within the 11-county district there is only one PreK to fifth-grade school accepting the vouchers. It will be difficult to reverse the damage done by the voucher program. It will require zeroing out the funding during the biennial budget period, repealing Senate Bill 2, and abolishing the Texas Education Freedom Accounts.

Q: Should higher education in Texas be free or debt-free at public institutions?

Yes. I look forward to the opportunity to partner with Senator Zaffirini to revisit SB43, which sought to establish the Texas Promise Grant Program, offering free or significantly reduced tuition at public institutions of higher education for students from households with incomes under $100,000. The companion bill, HB5299, authored by Representative James Tallarico, aimed to provide additional financial assistance and incentives for students attending two-year public higher education institutions like junior colleges, technical institutes, and state colleges. Both bills originally died in committee and will need further Democratic support to regain traction during the next Legislative session.

Q: Should Texas guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students, regardless of income?

Yes. I expect these efforts to be led by the soon-to-be elected Ag Commissioner, Clayton Tucker. Free school meal legislation can be based upon New Mexico’s SB4, which was passed in March 2023. By providing free school lunches to all students, it will end lunch shaming and improve children’s educational outcomes. Representatives Armando Walle and Toni Rose have led school lunch reforms in the past, and I look forward to connecting with them to revitalize support for free school meals. Food insecurity doesn’t end when the school year is over. Within HD31, there are over 30, 627 (76%) kids eligible for summer food assistance, which Governor Greg Abbott cut as part of his $60 million line-item veto. In the incumbent’s home county of Starr, 93% of the kids could have benefited from the summer EBT program.

Q: Do you support automatic voter registration and same-day registration in Texas?

Yes. Not only should Texas support automatic voter registration and same-day registration, but countywide voting should also be mandatory. Texas should operate its elections on an opt-out versus opt-in model. Whenever a person gets a driver’s license or identification card, their information should automatically be sent to the elections office for registration. Counties should have electronic poll books at all locations to safely sign up new voters, and they should be provided with ballot-on-demand printers.

Q: Should local police be barred from enforcing federal immigration law?

Yes. The Task Force Model of the federal 287(g) Program should be barred. This model requires local officers to actively enforce immigration law, question individuals, and assist in field operations outside the jail, such as during routine traffic stops or patrols. The Warrant Service Officer model should remain in place. This model allows deputies to serve and execute ICE administrative warrants within the county jail on individuals already in custody, but they cannot make arrests or interrogate people in the community.

Bonus Question: Who are your political role models, living or dead?

Jane Addams is a deeply meaningful political role model for me because her life brought together two things that define my own path: social work and service to the community. She understood that lasting change comes from listening to people, advocating for those whose voices are often overlooked, and turning compassion into action. As a Social Worker myself, I am inspired by her belief that we have a responsibility to address the conditions that make it difficult for people and communities to thrive. Having my middle name, Jane, in her honor makes that connection especially personal. Her commitment to social justice, civic engagement, voting rights, and public service reminds me that leadership is not about power—it is about using your voice and your position to create opportunities for others.

HD31 is red because for most of the last decade, nobody bothered to give voters a reason to show up and vote otherwise.

JJ Dominguez has spent three decades doing the work Guillen only talks about, sitting with dialysis patients, counseling immigrants, building a county party in the one place Democrats are weakest. Whether that’s enough to close the gap depends on turnout, on money, and on whether the Hispanic-vote reversion the party is banking on actually shows up in Starr County.

That’s not a guarantee. It’s a real race with a real candidate, in a district Democrats have no business continuing to forfeit.

You can learn more about JJ Dominguez from her website, Facebook, and Instagram.

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• 59 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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If you missed it, earlier this year, I published “Ken Paxton Will Go Down As The Most Corrupt Attorney General In Texas’ History: Part I.” What surprised me the most was how many emails I received after publishing that article, telling me I’d missed this or that scandal. And perhaps there is enough Ken Paxton corruption to write an entire book about, so here is part two. And I fear the depravity may never stop boiling to the surface.

Trans kids and medical privacy.

In November 2023, Paxton subpoenaed Seattle Children’s Hospital for unredacted records on any Texas minor who ever received gender-affirming care there. Except Seattle Children’s doesn’t have a Texas practice, in person or remote. Paxton wanted the records anyway. The hospital sued, citing HIPAA and Washington’s “shield law,” which exists specifically to stop states like ours from reaching across state lines to punish people for legal medical care.

That same year, Paxton went to the Texas Department of Public Safety and demanded a list of every single Texan who had changed the gender marker on their driver’s license.

In February 2024, PFLAG, the LGBTQ family support organization, sued Paxton after he demanded the org’s records on families it had helped find gender-affirming care. He wanted to know who they’d helped and how.

By April 2024, Paxton finally dropped the Seattle Children’s subpoena and settled after Seattle Children’s agreed to withdraw its Texas business license as part of the deal. So the hospital had to formally give up the right to operate here just to make him go away.

It’s the same move he pulled on PFLAG, on Yelp, on every nonprofit he’s decided to harass using “consumer protection” and “deceptive trade practices” law as a costume. His own office has admitted, in writing, that these investigations start with Ken Paxton deciding he doesn’t like you.

In March 2026, the Texas Supreme Court sided with Paxton, ruling the lower court had no business blocking his investigation and that PFLAG has to hand over records after all, including communications about how families found care outside Texas. This is the state’s highest court telling a family support nonprofit that Ken Paxton can dig through their files.

The Beto lawsuit saga.

On August 8, 2025, Paxton sued Beto and his group Powered by People, claiming Beto was funding “Beto Bribes” to Democrats who broke quorum. Raising money to support lawmakers exercising a legal, constitutional tool is, you know, politics. Paxton got a same-day temporary restraining order out of a Tarrant County judge.

A week later, on August 15, Paxton wasn’t satisfied with just blocking the fundraising. He amended the petition to go after Powered by People’s entire nonprofit charter. The whole organization. Shut it down.

Then on August 20, an El Paso judge looked at what Paxton was doing and issued a competing TRO blocking him from prosecuting the group at all. So now you’ve got dueling restraining orders out of two different counties, which is a fun way to spend the state’s legal resources.

Beto, for his part, did not sit quietly. He held a rally in Fort Worth, told the crowd to “fuck the rules,” and kept right on fundraising. Paxton’s response was to ask the court to hold him in contempt and put him in jail.

Yes, the Attorney General of Texas tried to get a private citizen jailed for continuing to raise money and speak at a political rally.

By September 17, the Texas Tribune was reporting that the case was falling apart.

Quorum-break arrest warrant campaign.

While Paxton was busy trying to jail Beto, he and Speaker Dustin Burrows asked courts in Illinois and California to enforce Texas civil arrest warrants against the Democratic legislators who’d fled the state to deny quorum. An ask for out-of-state law enforcement to hunt down sitting Texas lawmakers and drag them back.

At the same time, Paxton went to the Texas Supreme Court and asked the justices to rule that Rep. Gene Wu and the others had vacated their seats for missing the deadline.

In the end, they didn’t have the legal authority.

Llano County book bans.

Back in 2022, Llano County officials pulled books off library shelves. The books targeted were disproportionately by Black and Latino authors, or dealt with gender. They fired the librarian who wouldn’t go along with it, then closed library board meetings to the public so nobody could watch them do it.

Naturally, Ken Paxton’s office jumped in to defend them, on the taxpayer’s dime.

The legal defense effort pulled in America First Legal, the same group that filed a brief backing Paxton against his own whistleblowers, the ones who got fired for reporting him to the FBI. Same right-wing legal infrastructure, showing up again and again, whether the fight is about Paxton’s own corruption or somebody else’s culture war.

The Waco plea deal.

Waco attorney Adam Hoffman was charged with a first-degree felony, sexual abuse of a child. His 2025 trial ended in a hung jury. Rather than retry the case, Paxton’s office cut a deal. Hoffman pleaded down to two misdemeanors and one day in jail. A judge looked at that deal, was apparently as disturbed by it as you’d expect, and bumped the sentence to 30 days, then 60 after public outcry. Hoffman was released after 30. He never had to register as a sex offender.

The facts, reported by the Texas Tribune and independently confirmed by Snopes.

The real estate and net worth.

Ken Paxton makes $153,000 a year as Attorney General. A report published just this week found that Paxton’s financial disclosures appear to violate federal ethics law. Seven properties worth a combined $5.2 million weren’t listed. Mortgages on his Utah condos went undisclosed. A piece of land got valued at roughly $950,000 less than what it’s actually worth.

In 2019, Paxton pocketed $2.2 million when Motorola bought out WatchGuard, the company behind his old “blind trust” stock. Since then he’s gone on a buying spree, snapping up somewhere between 10 and 15 properties across Texas, Florida, Utah, Oklahoma, and Hawaii. Forbes currently puts his net worth around $13 million.

On the record and sourced, a sitting Attorney General making $153,000 a year has quietly built a multimillion-dollar, multi-state property portfolio, and his own financial disclosures don’t add up. All of his math is either really bad or something is amiss.

Dark money in the Senate race.

James Talarico’s campaign filed an FEC complaint alleging Paxton and his own campaign treasurer illegally routed $1 million to a Paxton-aligned super PAC through Preserve Texas Inc., a Virginia-based dark money nonprofit that isn’t even registered as a political committee. The complaint leans on a 2002 campaign finance law written specifically to stop candidates from laundering unlimited outside cash through friendly committees.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for the FEC to do anything about it before November. The commission currently lacks a quorum because Trump fired one of the Democratic commissioners. So the one federal body built to police this kind of thing is sitting there deliberately broken, which is either a hell of a coincidence.

Since January 2025, Talarico has raised $72 million, compared with Paxton’s $16.8 million. And look at where that money’s coming from: 88% of Paxton’s haul is from large donors, while 51% of Talarico’s is from small-dollar givers putting in less than $200 a pop. One of these campaigns is being funded by Texans chipping in what they can. The other is being funded by people who need a spreadsheet to track their own contributions.

End Citizens United has publicly called Paxton one of the most corrupt candidates running anywhere in the country in 2026, and endorsed Talarico on that basis alone.

Ken Paxton keeps getting caught doing more of what he’s always done.

Subpoenaing children’s medical records. Trying to jail a private citizen for holding a rally. Sending law enforcement across state lines to drag elected officials back to Austin. Bankrolling the defense of a county that fired a librarian for refusing to ban books. Cutting a plea deal so lenient for a man charged with sexually abusing a child that a judge had to intervene twice to make the punishment resemble justice. Building a real estate empire on a government salary and calling the missing paperwork an accident. And now, allegedly, laundering a million dollars through a dark money group with his own campaign treasurer sitting on both sides of the transaction.

Every single item in this piece has a court filing, a financial disclosure, a campaign finance record, or a named source attached to it.

Texas Republicans had every chance to be done with him. They impeached him on 20 counts and then let their own Senate acquit him anyway. They watched a decade of securities fraud charges evaporate into a slap on the wrist. They keep handing him bigger jobs instead of smaller ones. He’s not sneaking anything past anybody. He’s counting on us being too exhausted to keep score.

I’m not exhausted. I’m keeping score. And come November, Texans get to do the one thing a decade of prosecutors, judges, and his own party couldn’t manage. Fire him.

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On August 15, we discussed the Republican vote to bulldoze Big Bend, specifically the three Republicans from Texas who cast that vote. Last weekend, Progress Texas followed up on that article with an interview featuring all three Democrats running against those Republicans, along with a discussion of that vote.

As a reminder, those Democrats are:

• TX06: Danny Minton

• TX27: Tanya Lloyd

• TX31: Justin Early

Cook Political is rating each of these races around a 10 (R) or 11 (R), but last week Beto reminded me that a race in my backyard moved +30 points to the left.

But we’ve talked about this. Just because Taylor Rehmet’s State Senate seat flipped in one county, in one special election, doesn’t mean we’ll see a blanket +30 across Texas in November.

Realistically, we have to look at each district, each precinct, each candidate, the money, the organizing, and so on.

Yesterday, the Texas Observer published “The Year For The Magical Thinker,” where they defined the Lone Star Left as “deranged optimism,” which has become increasingly reasonable. You bet I’m making t-shirts. 😁

I must admit, in previous years you and I have spoken a lot about ideology, the Texas Democrat, and the paths to a better world. This year, though, I’ve shied away from general discussions of what the grassroots were feeling, acting on, and how that ideology was at play in Texas. I don’t know if you knew this, but there are a lot of ideological and identity fights happening within the Democratic Party, and they aren’t fights I’m interested in getting swept up in.

However, there’s really nothing magical about it at all.

The most important voting facts in Texas.

In 2018, when Beto lost to Ted Cruz by only 2 points, 57.9% of eligible voters did not vote. (Which was over 11 million people.) That’s both registered voters who did not vote and eligible voters who were not registered.

In 2020, Democrats may have been high on Beto’s close chances, and they still showed up in high numbers. But guess what? Because of COVID, the Texas Democratic Party was completely no-contact that year. 46.6% of eligible voters didn’t make it to the polls.

Fuck, 2022. Ugh. Yuck. I thought we would carry our momentum. A lot of shit went wrong. Texas Democrats, in general, were hyper-focused on what was happening in DC, rather than Texas. It’s the news’ fault, not theirs. Biden was in the White House. The left didn’t like Biden. Texas Democrats are further left than those in most other states. And our leadership then still sucked. 63% of eligible voters in Texas did not vote in 2022, or roughly 13.5 million people.

2024, if Texas Democrats weren’t depressed in 2022, they sure as hell were in 2024. Even Kendall Scudder says, “1.4 million Texas Democrats stayed home in 2024.” It was frustration with the choices. It was Gaza. It was a lack of civics education. It was whatever it was. But in 2024, 50.3% of eligible voters in Texas didn’t make it to the polls.

In Texas, there are two very consistent problems.

1. Millions and millions of people are eligible to vote, but never register.

2. Millions and millions of people are registered to vote, but never cast a ballot.

And in turn:

• In 2018, Republicans had 1 million more voters.

• In 2020, Republicans had 600,000 more voters.

• In 2022, Republicans had 800,000 more voters.

• In 2024, Republicans had 1.5 million more voters.

And the non-voters remain around 10 million or more.

Texas is the state with the lowest voter turnout in America and has been for many years, and Republicans, each legislative session, pass more bills to decrease turnout further.

And therefore, Texas isn’t a red state. Texas is a state where the Republicans ALWAYS vote, without faltering. And where Democrats mostly don’t vote, sometimes some of them do, but it’s really math more than magic.

The Republican advantage in a Trump-on-the-ballot year is 1.5 million voters. The people who didn’t show up at all are 10 million-plus, election after election, year after year, no matter who’s in the White House or what the vibes are. Republicans have never once needed to win an argument in this state. They just needed Democrats to stay home, and Democrats have obliged them for twenty years running.

If even a fraction of those 10 million non-voters show up, the 1.5 million-vote gap is just a rounding error.

So, could we have flipped 17 seats in 2024? Yeah, but Texas Democrats chose to stay home instead.

But why did they stay home?

A while back, Texas Monthly published an article basically saying that there was no proof that the non-voters in Texas were “secretly blue.” They could have been red, for all we know, since they were non-voters, after all.

L2, a big data company, has modeled Texas data and determined there are:

• Likely Democratic: 8,133,683 (46.5%)

• Likely Republican: 6,001,190 (37.7%)

The opps (Gen Z slang for “opposition”) have fought tooth and nail to debunk this claim by L2, mostly because they don’t understand big data and Texas doesn’t register by party. L2 did write an explainer of their modeling.

But if you work in an industry where you’re around a lot of people, or you talk to a lot of people in Texas, especially in urban areas. You probably don’t need big data to figure this out for you.

Did you know the maximum number of Facebook Groups you can join is 6,000? I found that out by reaching the cap. I used to join them all. All the Democratic clubs and groups across the state, but also the County Breaking News groups and gossip groups in every county in Texas. Hood County always had the best gossip. And Vidor was always my favorite place to troll. I probably pay less attention to them nowadays than I used to, but spending years and years with those groups on your feed will tell you a lot about the people of Texas.

There’s about a million reasons people don’t vote. I’ll give you a few.

A few years back, I met an elderly mechanic who didn’t vote. We got into a discussion about it. He told me about some of his personal financial struggles, his legal issues, and how, no matter who has been in office his entire life, nothing has ever gotten better for him.

I wish I could tell you I’ve only heard a story like that once in my life.

When I’ve spoken to Black activists in East Texas, they’ve told me stories like that are common, but generational. Black civil rights activists were still being murdered in East Texas in the 1970s. We’re now looking at a youth who, in many cases, had parents and grandparents who didn’t vote because of generational disenfranchisement.

Then they aren’t teaching these kids anything in school.

A few years ago, my stepson brought a girl home, and like all of my interactions in life (it’s a running theme), the topic of voting came up. And the girl looked me square in the eye and said, “There’s no point, since they already pick who they want to win, anyway.”

I responded, “Who is they?”

She meant the wealthy elite. It’s not the first time I’ve heard that one, either. That the oligarch has already picked out who they want to win, and no matter who you vote for, they will stick their little tentacles in and declare the winner.

But that’s not true at all. And maybe it seems that way to people who “don’t pay attention to politics,” when they see our elected officials doing favors for the rich and nothing for the people.

And because I did my life backward and had a baby when I was a teenager, then went to college when I was 40, I actually had a chance to talk to college kids when I had a lot more sense. Largely, they believe everything that happens in DC is happening with every Democrat everywhere. Texas Democrats are like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, and they are indistinguishable. Because Democrats are centerists and centrists are bad.

And then there was Gaza. A YouGov/IMEU Policy Project poll, released in January 2025, found that roughly 19 million people who voted for Biden in 2020 but sat out 2024, nearly a third named Israel’s US-backed war on Gaza as a top reason for staying home.

The math said we could have flipped those seats in 2024. We could have flipped Texas in 2022, 2020, and even 2018. It was my magical thinking that believed Texans would have had enough of Republicans’ shit to kick them out of office. But they just didn’t bother to show up.

We’ve always had the numbers to flip this state.

We just never had enough people willing to do the boring, unglamorous, grunt work.

None of the people I just told you about are wrong. The mechanic isn’t wrong that nothing’s changed for him no matter who’s in Austin or DC. Those East Texas activists aren’t wrong about what their grandparents survived. The girl at my dinner table isn’t wrong that rich people get favors from elected officials.

Every single reason somebody’s given me for not voting is rooted in something true. That’s what makes it so hard to argue with. And it’s exactly why both parties find it easier to ignore than to fix.

But “they already picked the winner” and “my vote doesn’t matter” are two different sentences that end with nobody showing up, and the 1.5 million vote gap holds for another cycle. Cynicism is a strategy.

So here’s how twenty years of this state beating the hope out of people and me refusing to learn my lesson gives me magical thinking. The math was never the problem. The problem was 10 million individual Texans, for a hundred different individual reasons, deciding one at a time that Tuesday wasn’t worth it.

Convincing ten million people sounds impossible. Turning out a few hundred thousand of them, district by district, precinct by precinct, does not.

And why convince them?

Because in Texas, we have a ton of progressives on the ticket!

Part of being a magical thinker is thinking there are more progressives among blue voters in Texas than among their non-Texas counterparts. I’ve actually been saying this for about a decade; I’ve run many polls about it over the years. It’s one of the things I learned best from being in all those Facebook groups. But let’s get to 2026.

Start with the fact that the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is a Texan. Greg Casar is the first CPC chair in the caucus’s history to come from a Republican-controlled state. Lloyd Doggett sits on the CPC’s executive board as a vice chair. That’s what happens when a state party gets so locked out of statewide power that its members stop performing moderation for an electorate that was never going to reward them for it anyway.

In a swing state, a Democrat has to worry about the general election, so the incentive is to hedge right and chase the mythical persuadable moderate. In Texas, until very recently, there was no persuadable moderate to chase. Statewide Democrats haven’t won an election since 1994. So the only place the incentive structure actually operates is the primary, and Texas Democratic primary voters, concentrated in Austin, Houston, Dallas, and the border, skew well to the left of the state as a whole. You don’t win a Texas Democratic primary by sounding like Joe Manchin. You win it by sounding like Casar.

That’s the same dynamic behind the 2024 platform fight I’ve written about. Texas Democrats became the first state party in the country to pass a Gaza ceasefire resolution, months before it was safe to say that in national Democratic circles. Nobody in Texas Democratic leadership was going to lose a general election over it, because there was no general election to lose.

Texas Democrats have spent thirty years with nothing to protect and no swing vote to court, and that turns out to be exactly the condition under which a party stops triangulating and starts saying what it actually believes.

• There are currently NINETEEN Texas Democrats on the Congressional ballot who have publicly supported universal healthcare (maybe more; haven’t updated since June).

• Five Texas Democrats received Track AIPAC endorsements; a dozen others have put out statements on US military aid to Israel and human rights abuses.

• There’s an entire new slate of progressives in the Texas House, even before the election. I thought I wrote about it, but now I can’t find it. Julio Salinas, Pooja Sethi, and Adrian Reyna, to name a few.

But maybe, if you don’t really pay attention to Texas politics, it may seem bizarre that there’s an insurgent, progressive-populist, anti-DC political party on the verge of being unleashed right here in the Lone Star State. But maybe, if you’ve been paying close attention and listening all along, it looks less like magic and more like the math working itself out.

County parties from Tarrant to Bexar are running actual canvassing operations instead of waiting for someone to show up and save them. That’s people doing the work, on purpose, for two years, before anybody outside Texas was paying attention.

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• 62 days until the November election!

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Today, the fascist Republicans on the Tarrant County Commissioners Court voted to cut polling locations in primarily Black and Hispanic neighborhoods. They did this because they know that they are about to lose Tarrant County, and it’s their last-ditch effort to hold on to power.

I was there for the protests this morning, and I had an idea of what kind of day it was going to be when I saw a religious cult praying to give Tim O’Hare strength in making this decision.

Someone told me they were there because Commissioner Matt Krause planned to pass a resolution honoring Charlie Kirk. However, a reporter for the Dallas Express, a far-right outlet owned by billionaire Monty Bennett, later confirmed that they were praying about the removal of polling locations.

The Charlie Kirk resolution.

We’re not going to discuss who Charlie Kirk was. If you don’t remember, here he was, in his own words:

Matt Krause wanted to honor him. He said his son in college and all his son’s friends were sad.

The two Black members of the Commissioners Court did speak against the resolution:

But of course, it passed with all three Republicans voting in favor and both Democrats voting against it. Tarrant County is 40.9% Anglo and 48.1% non-Anglo. Fitting, since they planned to cut polling locations on the same day in mostly minority neighborhoods.

And, to add insult to injury, Bill Weybourn was there to accept a plaque.

No kidding. It was a big slap in the face to the protesters who were there only hours earlier, protesting the 81 deaths under his watch.

From earlier this morning, on the courthouse steps, on each one of these neon signs was written the name of a person who died while in Sheriff Weybourn’s custody:

And only hours later, he showed up to accept a plaque from a third party regarding the jail’s recidivism program:

This is the circus that Republicans perform under in Tarrant County. While human beings die, they pat each other on the back and strip away polling locations to make sure no one can stop them.

There were hours of testimony against the closing of the polling locations.

Plenty of Charlie Kirk supporters stayed to support the closings, praising O’Hare.

Representative Vikki Goodwin and candidate for Lt. Governor testified:

Nydia Cardenas, who is running for Commission District 4, testified:

Dione Sims, who is running for TX25, testified:

Yisak Worku, who is running for HD91, testified:

So did the Texas Civil Rights Project:

And there were a slew of other candidates. TX24 candidate Kevin Burge, TX06 candidate Danny Minton, HD96 candidate Ebony Turner, and my Representative-elect, Junior Ezeonu. The public testimony portion went on until after 4 pm.

But it didn’t matter.

The Republicans made up their mind long before the vote took place. Long before they walked in there that day.

Placing the resolution for Charlie Kirk on the same day they planned to cut polling locations was a ploy to pull in all their sycophants, not only for support but also to run some of the opposition out. It was a political ploy.

When court began this morning, both overflow rooms were full. And the court refused to make any further overflow areas available.

Some people just camped out in the lobby.

Others were given seating outside the courthouse in the 100° Texas sun.

But the people stayed. And well over 100 testified. One minute a piece.

And when it came time to vote, the three Republicans voted to cut polling locations, and the two Democrats voted against it.

Tim O’Hare and Matt Krause know the math.

They’ve seen the same numbers as everyone else has. Tarrant County is slipping out of their hands, and they know it. The only thing standing between them and the political wilderness has been how few people bother to show up and vote.

That’s the whole game. Cut the polling locations in the neighborhoods most likely to vote them out. Make the lines longer. Make the drive farther. Bank on the fact that most people have jobs and kids and a life, and won’t fight for a ballot box that keeps moving on them.

But people notice when you do this stuff out in the open, in front of cameras, on the same day you’re eulogizing a culture war mascot while a sheriff who’s presided over 81 deaths in his jail struts in to collect a plaque. And they get mad.

Over a hundred people gave up their whole Tuesday to stand in a 100-degree sidewalk and testify for one minute apiece, knowing full well the vote was decided before they opened their mouths. They did it anyway. That’s the behavior of a county that’s fed up.

Every stunt like this is the Republicans on this court betting that voters will shrug and stay home. This is the county that flipped blue in a presidential year and has been inching there ever since, in a state where Republicans have had to rig the district lines twice in one decade just to keep the illusion of a majority alive. O’Hare knows this. Krause knows this. That’s why they’re governing like people who know the clock is running out.

They think cutting polling locations buys them another cycle. But people remember who stripped their polling place the same week they were praying over a resolution for a man who condemned MLK JR. People remember a sheriff collecting an award while grieving families held up neon signs with their loved ones’ names on them.

Tarrant County got bluer today. And it got angrier. Angry, organized, outnumbered majorities have a way of showing up exactly when the people counting on their absence need them not to.

The reckoning is just waiting on the calendar.

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• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

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If you have doomscrolled on social media in the last few days, you have likely seen a video from a political influencer, perhaps Aaron Parnas or Harry Sisson, or maybe someone else completely, stating, “Texas has SUSPENDED 1.2 million voters.” This has led to a mass freakout among voters who think they’ve been purged from the voting rolls. However, I’m here to tell you that this is mass misinformation.

1.2 million voters have not been suspended.

1.2 million voters have been placed on the suspense list.

Suspense, suspended, it’s all the same, isn’t it?

No.

Texas Election Code doesn’t have a status called “suspended.” It has a status called “suspense.” Two different words. Two different legal terms. Is it intentional to confuse voters? Yes. And apparently, “political content creators,” who need to brush up on their craft.

“Suspense” is a specific, defined category in state law. A voter lands there when a piece of election mail, usually a renewed voter certificate or a jury summons, gets returned as undeliverable, or when the registrar otherwise has reason to think the address on file is stale. That means election officials believe a voter no longer lives at the address listed on their registration. That’s it. The post office, or a returned envelope, flagged it.

And being on the suspense list doesn’t mean someone has been removed from the voter rolls or is ineligible to cast a ballot, though you may need to take additional steps before casting a ballot. You’re still registered. Your name is still in the county’s database. You can still vote. You’ll just need to fill out a form when you get there.

“Suspended,” on the other hand, isn’t a legal term at all. It’s a word the TikTok explainers reach for because it made more sense to them than “suspense,” and because it echoes something people already understand.

What Texas law states.

Yesterday, I saw a guy on social media say, “I’ve lived in 8 places this last 12 years, and this is the first time my voter registration has been suspended.”

Your driver’s license and your voter registration are governed by two completely different statutes.

Your driver’s license (Texas Transportation Code § 521.054) requires you to notify DPS within 30 days of moving and get a duplicate license issued with your new address.

For your voter registration, under Election Code § 15.025, you can submit a change of address, and it takes effect 30 days after you submit it. But nothing in the law requires you to submit it on any particular timeline after you move. The system is entirely passive on your end, right up until a piece of mail addressed to your old registration gets returned as undeliverable, at which point the registrar is required to send you a Notice of Address Confirmation under § 15.051. If you don’t respond, that’s the moment you land on suspense.

However, under Election Code § 11.002, to be an eligible voter in Texas, you have to be a resident of the county where you’re registered. Residence itself is defined in § 1.015, which is defined as the one fixed place you actually live and intend to return to, not just any address you’ve slept at.

So the guy who moved eight times in twelve years and only just got flagged now is the system working exactly as designed, just really slowly. His driver’s license forced him to update every single time, on a 30-day clock, with a penalty attached. His voter registration never forced him to do anything. It just sat there wrong until some piece of election mail finally bounced.

You can still vote if you’re on the suspense list.

That needs to be very clear, because with hundreds of thousands of people suddenly thinking they’re “suspended,” it needs to be known, they ARE NOT and CAN STILL vote.

Being on suspense doesn’t take your ballot away. It adds a form.

If you show up to vote and you’re still registered in the same county, you’re going to be asked to fill out a Statement of Residence under Election Code § 63.0011. You confirm your current address on the spot, an election worker attaches it to your registration, and you vote a regular ballot. That’s it.

Filling out that Statement of Residence is also what gets you off the suspense list.

If you’ve moved to a different county since you last voted and never updated your registration, that’s a slightly different animal. You’ll need to cast a limited ballot, available during early voting at the county elections office, which lets you vote in the races that are the same regardless of where in Texas you live, US Senate, statewide races, but not your local or legislative down-ballot contests, since those are tied to your old address, not your new one. (Election Code §§ 63.001 and §§ 64.012.)

Check your registration now.

Go to the Secretary of State’s “Am I Registered?” portal and search by your name, your Texas driver’s license number, or your Voter Unique Identifier if you’ve got your registration certificate handy. It’ll tell you whether you’re active or on suspense.

If you’re on suspense and you haven’t actually moved, update or confirm your address at Texas.gov or through your county voter registrar. That response is what clears you.

If you have moved, same portal, same fix, update your address to your current one. Once the registrar processes it, you’re back to active status, no suspense, no Statement of Residence needed on Election Day.

The deadline is October 5, 2026. That’s the registration deadline for the November 3 general election. If you’re planning to clear your status before Election Day rather than filling out a form at the polls, that’s your line.

Note that if you haven’t moved and you’re on the suspense list from a bad flag (clerical error, a jury summons that bounced for no real reason, whatever), deadline doesn’t matter much. You can walk into your same polling place on Election Day itself, fill out the Statement of Residence under § 63.0011, and vote a full regular ballot. The confirmation happens in real time, at the polls.

However, if you are on the suspense list because you moved, you should update your address by October 5, so that you can have a normal, full ballot at your correct precinct, no forms, no restrictions. If you miss it, you’ll still be able to vote on a limited ballot, but you won’t be able to vote on your local races.

Words matter.

Legislators know words matter. That’s why Texas Election Code doesn’t call this status “suspended,” “flagged,” “on hold,” or “purged.” It calls it suspense, a word so bureaucratically boring that nobody outside an election office would ever choose to use it on purpose, unless the goal was to make sure regular people never fully understood what it meant.

Republican government’s voter code this convoluted, with this many overlapping deadlines, this many different forms depending on whether you moved within a county or out of one, this many statutes cross-referencing other statutes, doesn’t get built by mistake. Texas didn’t stumble into a system where your driver’s license has a hard 30-day deadline with teeth, but your voter registration has none, until suddenly, silently, four years and two elections later, you’re gone. Republicans wrote it that way. Republicans keep it that way.

The GOP doesn’t need to purge 1.2 million Texans to win. They just need enough of those 1.2 million Texans to see the word “suspense,” panic, assume there’s nothing to be done, and stay home. That’s the whole play.

Confusion does the GOP’s work for free, and a viral TikTok using the wrong word does more voter suppression in a weekend than the state’s actual suspense process could pull off in a year.

So no, you are not suspended. You are not purged. You are, at absolute worst, in purgatory, stuck in a holding pattern the state built on purpose, waiting for you to either wise up and fill out a form or give up and let the clock run out.

Don’t give them the second option. Check your status. Fill out the form. Vote anyway.

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• 64 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next three months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Cecilia Castellano?

Cecilia Castellano is a third-generation Texan from Atascosa County. Her family’s been on this land since before “flippable seat” was a phrase anybody used, as she watched good people in her community leave because there’s no work.

She runs AZTECA Designs & Construction, has been married for twenty-three years and counting, has two grown kids, three grandkids, and has taught Bible study at New Life Christian Center since 2014. Castellano is a small business owner and a churchgoing grandmother running on public schools, rural hospitals, and property tax relief.

Ken Paxton’s office sent search warrants to her home in 2024, as well as elderly LULAC volunteers in their seventies and eighties. This came from a referral from a district attorney who took campaign photos with Castellano’s own opponent. She’s maintaining innocence and running again regardless. The raid was intended to put fear in front of a community that already votes at abysmal rates, and put Castellano’s name next to the word “investigation” nineteen days before an election, as part of an attack ad the McLaughlin campaign paid for and Henry Cuellar’s sister starred in. That’s the environment she’s running in.

Think about that.

In 2024, weeks before what was supposed to be a competitive election, the Republican AG raided the homes of Democratic candidates, campaign staff, and elderly LULAC volunteers in their seventies and eighties, in one of the poorest areas in Texas. The referral came from a DA photographed campaigning with Castellano’s Republican opponent. Nineteen days out, that Republican opponent’s campaign funded an attack ad starring the sister of a sitting congressman, Rosie Cuellaer. In 2025, Castellano was indicted on two counts of vote harvesting. She pleaded not guilty. The charges are still active.

And she stuck out her chest (and maybe her middle finger), and she put her name on the ballot again in 2026.

That tells us all who Cecilia Castellano is. She’s someone with a spine.

The district.

HD80 is across six counties (Atascosa, Dimmit, Frio, Uvalde, Webb portion, Zavala). Hispanic population is 83.2%, compared to 39.7% statewide. Anglo population is 14.0%. This is one of the most Hispanic districts in the state legislature.

Age skews young. 22.2% of the district is 5-17 years old versus 18.6% statewide, and only 11.7% is 65+ versus 13.4% statewide.

Language matters here more than almost anywhere else in the state. 65.6% of the district speaks a language other than English at home, and 11.2% doesn’t speak English well or at all.

This is one of the poorest districts in Texas. 23.9% of the district lives in poverty versus 13.8% statewide. Per capita income is $22,813 against a state average of $40,752, roughly 56 cents on the dollar.

Housing: 63.8% owner-occupied, average home value $201,508 (about 55% of the state average), average rent $1,033. Cheap housing, low equity, low wealth accumulation. 22.3% of owners are cost-burdened at 35%+ of income, actually worse than the state rate of 17.3%, despite the lower home values, which tells you incomes are dragging harder than housing costs are.

November 2024 results:

Now compare that to the top of the ticket in the same district, same election:

Castellano ran 2.5 points ahead of Harris and roughly in line with the down-ballot judicial Democrats, but 1.9 points behind Allred.

Trump is underwater with Hispanic voters right now, badly. Nationally, Democrats are running ahead on the generic congressional ballot by mid-to-high single digits, depending on the poll. Put that next to a district that’s 83.2% Hispanic, and you have one of the biggest swing opportunities available in this election cycle.

None of that means anything without turnout, and turnout is where HD80 has bled Democrats for a decade. In 2024, a presidential year, the district saw only 48.3% turnout. Turnout is the biggest problem this district faces. Total voter registration in HD80 sits at 116,791, and 73 percent of that roll is Spanish Surname Voter Registration, nearly triple the statewide share. Close even half that turnout gap in a district already trending back toward Democrats nationally, and Castellano’s 9,949-vote loss from 2024 starts looking very different.

Castellano is running into a shift that’s already underway in a district that overlaps TX23 and TX28, both of which are Talarico and DCCC targets (translation: it’s raining money). Castellano’s challenge will be to target the same Democrats and make sure they vote down-ballot.

The incumbent.

The day after 19 kids and two teachers were murdered at Robb Elementary, Beto confronted Greg Abbott when he was speaking and said, essentially, saying that Abbott’s inaction got those kids killed. He was right. Firearms remain the leading cause of death for children and teenagers in Texas.

McLaughlin, then Uvalde’s mayor, stood up and called him “a sick son of a bitch that would come to a deal like this to make a political issue.” McLaughlin later said that it wasn’t the place or the time. But notice what actually offended him. Not the deaths. Not the 77 minutes cops stood in a hallway while kids bled out. The politics of pointing out Republicans’ poor governance leading to that year’s mass death of children.

McLaughlin is the one on the left:

Before being elected, McLaughlin spent a lot of time on Fox News talking about the white supremacist “great replacement theory.”

Once elected, he signed the “Contract on Texas,” a pledge backed by donors with documented ties to Tim Dunn’s Defend Texas Liberty PAC, the same PAC that spent seven hours meeting with Nick Fuentes, promising to strip political power from “Democrats” in the Legislature. Of course, McLaughlin DID vote in favor of the racist mid-districting maps.

He told the Texas Tribune he wasn’t going to gut public schools. Then he signed on as a co-author of the voucher bill anyway.

McLaughlin spent two years savaging DPS for the Robb Elementary response. But when his own city commissioned a report, and it exonerated local police, he didn’t like that either; he said leadership failed and blamed the acting police chief. Meanwhile, when actual grieving fathers showed up to a city council meeting demanding real answers, he got into a shouting match with one of them, blamed the school board for stuff under his own authority, and dismissed another father with “I don’t know that man’s relationship with his daughter.” He called the slow release of the shooting footage “one of the most chicken things” he’d seen. Families in the room said the real chicken thing was the police response he’d spent two years defending politically while criticizing everyone else.

And nineteen days before the 2024 election, McLaughlin’s campaign funded an attack ad starring Rosie Cuellar, timed to a Paxton-office investigation referred by a DA who’d posed for campaign photos with him. He won by 19 points off the back of that. It happened for him, on schedule, funded by his own campaign, aimed at a district too poor and too worn down by a broken healthcare and education system to fight back at the ballot box the way a wealthier district might.

That’s the case against Don McLaughlin. A pattern of cruelty when it’s politically convenient, absence when it’s not, and a comfortable relationship with whoever’s willing to do his dirty work for him.

In Cecilia Castellano’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Castellano, based on previous reader polls, along with her answers.

Q: Should Texas end tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations?

Yes. Large corporations should invest in the communities where they do business and pay their fair share. Texas taxpayers and small businesses should not have to subsidize large corporations that have the resources to pay their own way. Economic development should benefit the community, create good-paying jobs, and strengthen local infrastructure—not shift corporate costs onto taxpayers.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

Yes. I oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education. Public tax dollars should remain in our public schools, where they can support teachers, classrooms, special education, school safety, and student programs. Our priority should be fully funding and strengthening Texas public schools, not diverting limited resources to private institutions.

Q: Should Texas guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students, regardless of income?

Yes. No child should have to learn while hungry. Texas should guarantee free school meals to all K–12 students so every child has access to nutritious food without stigma or unnecessary paperwork. Feeding students helps them focus, learn, and succeed in the classroom.

Q: Do you support closing or downsizing state prisons and redirecting that funding to community-based alternatives like mental health care, housing, and youth programs?

Yes, where appropriate. I support reducing our reliance on incarceration for nonviolent offenses and investing more in mental health care, substance-use treatment, housing stability, and youth programs that can prevent crime before it happens. At the same time, Texas must maintain secure facilities for individuals who pose a serious threat to public safety.

Q: Do you support publicly financed elections to reduce corporate and PAC influence?

Yes. I support reforms that reduce the influence of corporations, PACs, and wealthy special interests in our elections. Public financing can help qualified candidates compete without being dependent on large donors, while giving everyday voters a stronger voice. Any system should be transparent, voluntary, and include strict accountability for how public funds are used.

Bonus Question: What does being a Democrat mean to you in 2026?

Being a Democrat, to me, is not about a party label. I believe people are tired of politics being divided into red versus blue while the issues affecting their families continue to go unresolved. Housing affordability, veterans’ services, water infrastructure, public education, healthcare, wages, and the rising cost of living are not Democratic or Republican issues—they are Texas issues.

I am especially concerned when government decisions benefit powerful interests while communities are left carrying the consequences, whether that involves data centers placing additional demands on our water and electrical infrastructure or BESS facilities being developed without adequate safety protections.

I believe we need to get back to talking about the things that matter to people and creating real pathways to opportunity—quality education, skilled trades, good-paying jobs, affordable healthcare, reliable infrastructure, and stronger communities. My goal is to help build a Texas that works for everyone, regardless of political party, income level, or ZIP code.

That’s the choice in front of HD80.

On one side, a legislator who found his voice in a hallway full of grieving parents and used it to call a concerned citizen a “sick son of a bitch,” who’s spent four years managing the optics of a massacre instead of the aftermath of it, who took the voucher money and signed the pledge and voted for the maps, and who benefited, whether he ordered it or not, from a Republican AG’s office turning a search warrant into a campaign ad nineteen days before an election.

On the other side, a woman who watched her own community get hollowed out for lack of work and decided to run for office anyway. She had her phone taken and her home raided, and her name dragged through an indictment, and she filed for the seat again regardless. You don’t have to guess what Cecilia Castellano is made of. The state already tried to find out, and she’s still standing.

The math says this district is winnable. Trump’s underwater with the exact voters who live here. Democrats are running ahead nationally. HD80 sits inside the same map as TX23 and TX28, both drawing national money and attention this cycle. And the district didn’t lose in 2024 because voters rejected Castellano, it lost because less than half the registered electorate showed up. That’s a door-knocking problem, a ride-to-the-polls problem, a somebody-asking-you-twice problem.

Cecilia Castellano is on the ballot again. Whether HD80 flips depends on whether the rest of us do our part.

You can learn more about Cecilia Castellano from her website, Facebook, and Instagram.

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• 65 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.

This series is called Meet the Candidates. Over the next three months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.

Who is Zach Herbert?

Zach Herbert is a theology major turned lawyer, turned Marine, turned small business owner, turned public school dad, turned homeowner with opinions about Austin. He’s running as a Democrat who happens to have been a Marine, and he’s not shy about drawing a straight line from each chapter to a policy position.

Theology school taught him inclusiveness. Law school taught him to fight for people with no power. The Marines taught him leadership by example. Running a small business taught him what it actually costs to give your employees health insurance and still make payroll.

Herbert is raising kids in Texas public schools and a homeowner in HD112, so “local control” is whether his neighborhood’s decisions get overruled by a legislature two hours away. That’s important to him.

Policy-wise, Herbert is running a fairly standard progressive platform. Medicaid expansion, a livable minimum wage, reproductive rights framed explicitly around bodily autonomy, local control against legislative preemption, small business support tied to worker benefits, and a gun safety position that leads with the Second Amendment.

The district.

HD112 sits in the northeast Dallas suburbs around Richardson, and it’s one of the DLCC’s target seats. This isn’t a red district. It’s a district ready to flip, one that has previously missed it only by a hair.

Look at 2024. Trump beat Harris here 50.4% to 47.0%, 3.4 points; but scroll down the ballot. Colin Allred beat Ted Cruz in this district. Won. 50.2% to 47.8%. Voters in HD112 pulled the lever for Trump and then turned around and fired their Republican senator’s opponent in favor of the Democrat.

Classic ticket-splitting. Now look at the actual legislative race. Angie Button beat Avery Bishop 53.9% to 46.1%, a 7.8-point margin, nearly five points worse for Democrats than the Senate race. Same district with the same voters. Button ran ahead of Trump.

HD112 is 52.7% Anglo, 47.3% non-Anglo, with a meaningful and growing Asian population (12.5%, nearly double the state rate) alongside Black (15.1%) and Hispanic (19.2%) residents. This is a diverse, suburban, highly educated district. Nearly half the adult population (49.3%) holds a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 33.8% statewide. Per capita income is $55,699, compared with a state average of $40,752.

Homeownership sits at 65.1%, well above the state’s 56.7%, and the average home value is $475,899. These are people with equity, with property tax bills, with a direct financial stake in whatever the Lege does to their appraisal caps and their school funding formulas. Renters here aren’t cheap either: 82.5% of renter households pay $1,250 or more a month, and gross rent as a share of income is squeezing renters harder than owners across the board.

Turnout in 2024 was 69.3%, a full eight points above the statewide rate of 61.3%. It’s a high-propensity district that needs to be moved.

Democrats need to close a 7.8-point gap, and the Allred/Cruz result already proves there are enough ticket-splitters in HD112 to do it if the Democratic candidate is credible enough to earn their vote independent of the top of the ticket. Button’s overperformance of Trump proves she’s a strong incumbent, which means Herbert’s task is less about persuading Republicans on ideology and more about persuading soft partisans and independents that he’s a known, safe, credible alternative before Election Day.

Herbert’s profile as a veteran and business owner gives him a shot at actually converting some of those Trump-Allred split-ticket voters into voters who vote their pocketbook and their kid’s public school teacher down ballot.

The incumbent.

Angie Chen Button’s (R) branding does a lot of heavy lifting, and it should be dismantled. Button is a “good” Republican. The small business type. The CPA who worked at Texas Instruments for four decades, who talks about trade and workforce development instead of culture war, who Texas Monthly once named a best legislator for shepherding childcare funding. She’s not Bryan Slaton. She’s not screaming about litter boxes in bathrooms. She’s reasonable, or so the story goes.

But reasonable people don’t spend their careers as Greg Abbott’s most reliable vote in a district Abbott needs to hold to push his agenda through. Button has close ties to Abbott, and he’s counted on her specifically to help deliver school vouchers, the single most destructive policy aimed at Texas public education in a generation. She was endorsed by Abbott in her own primary explicitly because she backed his voucher push, and last session she voted yes on SB2, the bill that carves $1 billion out of the state budget to fund private school tuition, no accountability, no public oversight, straight out of the pockets of the same public schools 60% of District 112 kids actually attend.

A legislator who helps starve public schools to fund private tuition for families who can already afford it isn’t moderate. She’s just as extreme as any other Republican.

Oh, and then she turns her own family’s flight from persecution into a rhetorical cudgel. When Button needs to kill a Democratic bill, like expanding Medicaid, raising the minimum wage, or funding public schools instead of vouchers, she reaches for the ghost of Mao. Government healthcare becomes “socialism.” A living wage becomes the first domino toward “government control.” It’s the oldest trick in the Texas GOP playbook. But Button puts her personal narrative on it. Because who’s going to call out a woman whose family fled communism for invoking, well, communism?

Here’s the con. What her parents survived in China wasn’t a robust social safety net. It wasn’t Medicaid expansion, a minimum wage hike, or a school district that could actually pay its teachers. It was one-party authoritarian rule, religious persecution, a government that came after people for what they believed, not what benefits they collected.

Conflating that with Texas Democrats wanting to make sure a diabetic in Richardson can afford insulin is an insult to what her own family actually went through. It cheapens a real story of authoritarian violence by hitching it to a policy fight about whether working people should have healthcare. That’s the bait and switch. She’s not protecting you from the thing her family survived. She’s protecting insurance companies and private school lobbyists, and borrowing her parents’ trauma to do it.

In Zach Herbert’s own words.

Below are some questions I asked Herbert, based on previous reader polls, along with his answers.

Q: Should Texas end tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations?

Yes. Giving corporate handouts while cutting school funding and refusing to expand Medicaid makes no sense. For too long, Texas residential property owners have been footing the bill while large corporations post record profits and don’t pay their fair share. Further, these same corporations are buying bills in Austin that benefit their bottom line and take away local control.

Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?

Yes. This is nothing more than a concerted effort to defund our schools. The only people this law benefits are the affluent families that already attend private schools. I have spoken with families who qualified for the TEFA account but couldn’t find a school willing to accept their child with special needs. Why are we giving taxpayer money to schools that don’t have to follow the same rules as public schools? Private schools can turn kids away for any reason, don’t have to follow the same testing or curriculum requirements as state schools, and they don’t have to account for the money they do get from the state through this voucher scam. We should focus on fully funding public schools, revamping the allotment to be enrollment-based and inflation-indexed, and eliminating state takeover.

Q: Should Texas end tax breaks and regulatory loopholes for oil and gas companies, including exemptions from emissions reporting and waste disposal standards?

Yes. I acknowledge that this great state was built on oil and gas. However, it has also created a reliance that has been detrimental to our politics, people, and climate. We need to move away from turning a blind eye to oil and gas regulation, which allows companies to control our lawmakers and elected officials.

Q: Do you support closing or downsizing state prisons and redirecting that funding to community-based alternatives like mental health care, housing, and youth programs?

Our prison system is severely strained and approaching the maximum limit. When combined with local county jails, nearly half of the adult incarcerated population in Texas involves nonviolent individuals. Lowering penalty levels for nonviolent offenses like drug possession, expanding mental health and substance abuse diversion programs, and improving community supervision programs will save taxpayers money and greatly reduce the inmate population. Studies have shown that making illegal behavior more illegal does not deter criminal behavior. Addressing the underlying reasons for the behavior, however, does. So my answer is: address the underlying problem, and then we will reduce the strain on our prison system.

Q: Do you support automatic voter registration and same-day registration in Texas?

Yes. We should not be placing restrictions on access to the ballot box. This effort to go after “voter fraud” has been debunked. Extensive research, studies, and audits have found that this is nonsense and so minuscule that it cannot alter election outcomes. Any effort to restrict voting access couched in the “voter fraud” excuse is nothing more than voter suppression and a dangerous attempt at keeping power.

Bonus Question: How do you plan to engage and energize young and working-class voters?

I was just talking to a dad like me the other day. He has a first grader at the same elementary school as my two younger ones. We commiserated about how hard it is to find time to attend political events, rallies, etc. Parents of young ones like us are glad to just make it out to vote. I’ve tried to make my events family-friendly. I have been having “Scoops with Zach” events at local parks (with playgrounds) throughout this campaign. I invite the neighborhood, the local ice cream truck comes, and we all meet under a pavilion to talk about the issues that affect us most. We have had a great response to these events, with around 30-50 people attending each one. I have done 7 so far, with plans to do another 6 before the election. I find Sundays at 3 PM to be the sweet spot to allow everyone a chance to come. If we do more stuff like that- meeting the voters where they are, telling them to bring their kids- then we will energize and engage the younger and working-class crowd.

HD112 is ready to flip; it’s just waiting for the right Democrat.

Herbert is running on insulin costs, school funding formulas, and whether the guy at the elementary school pickup line can afford his kid’s asthma medication. That’s not a hard sell in a district with a 49% college-educated electorate and homeowners watching their appraisals climb. It’s a 7.8-point gap, and Button’s own voters already crossed party lines once to fire Ted Cruz.

The rest is just whether Herbert can get in front of enough of them before November. Seven ice cream socials down, six to go.

You can learn more about Zach Herbert on his website, Facebook, or Instagram.

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Texans, Jorge Borrego wants you to know that he’s grown up. The tweets that he posted between 2013 and 2017, back when he was allegedly locating his penis, casually dropping the n-word, using slurs for gay people, and quoting Hitler, don’t reflect who he is today. He was only 16 back then, or 20, old enough to be working legislative staff jobs in Austin. You know, the whole timeline on that “kid stuff” gets fuzzy fast when you’re the GOP nominee for the most competitive House seat in Texas.

Nine tweets surfaced first, courtesy of conservative Substack the who apparently got the “audit your own guy” memo, and Borrego’s initial response was, “I was 16 lol,” capped with a crying-laughing emoji, as if the N-word variant he used on his own cousin was a typo.

Then the Tribune kept digging and found dozens more. Cocaine references. Meth references. A whole cottage industry of Ask.fm answers about roids, sexting, and pornography as a source of “inspiration.”

And, oh lord, there’s so much to unpack here… before we even get to the mustache or the rumors of who or why he was set up.

See, there are a lot of things about this story that are absolutely hilarious. But there are some things in this story, especially about the excuses Borrego used, that pissed me off. And once you hear them, they’ll piss you off, too.

Let’s just start with the funny part first.

I mustache you to look at this picture and tell me if you think this is real facial hair. I have my doubts.

Borrego has worn the same Yosemite Sam special through every campaign photo since he announced, and the theory going around is that it’s less a personal style choice than a strategic decision by someone on his team who, looking at his background, said: “We need a distraction.”

Now, I can’t confirm the original source of the tweets (and we’ll get to that rumor). I can’t confirm the mustache was a defensive maneuver. But I can confirm that both facts entered the discourse within about six hours of each other, and “there are no coincidences in Austin.” - Tony Buzzbee.

Here’s what isn’t funny.

Borrego’s excuse for the slurs and the cocaine talk was that he used “dark humor to cope with trauma” growing up around addiction, that his dad was incarcerated, and that a teenage mom raised him. That’s a real story, and I believe it happened to him.

But let’s talk about what that excuse actually asks you to swallow, because Texas is full of people who grew up exactly like that and didn’t turn into raging racists about it. Broken homes, addiction, a parent in and out of the system. That’s not a rare biography in this state. And the overwhelming majority of people who lived through it did not spend their late teens and early twenties calling their own cousins slurs and treating “gay as fuck...you see i actually said it” as content.

Trauma is real. It is also not an excuse generator that only some people get access to, and it does not explain why the joke specifically had to be racist and homophobic, or why he kept making versions of it for four more years.

Here’s the part that actually gets me, though. Kids who grow up in the middle of addiction and incarceration and instability, the ones living the version of “trauma” Borrego is invoking, don’t usually walk straight out of high school into a four-year degree. They’re surviving a system that was not built to get them to a college campus by eighteen, let alone by way of a clean, uninterrupted shot at it. Borrego got that shot. He made it to UTSA fresh out of high school, on a path stable enough to later land a master’s from Texas A&M and a job pipeline straight into Austin. Someone made that possible for him. Probably his mother, the one he’s using as a supporting character in his trauma narrative right now. The same woman apparently held things together well enough that her son didn’t fall through any of the cracks that swallow so many kids in his situation.

So no, this isn’t a story about a guy who survived something hard and came out a little rough around the edges. It’s a story about a guy who got the opportunities that trauma usually steals from people, who had a mother who made sure of it, and who’s now cashing in that hardship as an excuse for choices he made as a legal adult with a verified Twitter account. That’s not dark humor. That’s an insult to every kid who had it just as bad and didn’t get the soft landing, and it’s an insult to the mother who worked to give him one.

And “I was 16 lol” doesn’t hold up either, because the Tribune’s second batch of tweets ran through 2017. Borrego was pushing 21, working in Austin, already building the resume that would land him a K-12 policy job at Texas Public Policy Foundation.

Which brings us to the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF).

TPPF likes to describe itself as a “nonpartisan research institute.” It is neither nonpartisan nor is it a research institute. It is the idea factory for the Texas GOP’s entire agenda. School vouchers, abortion bans, deporting undocumented immigrants, gutting climate regulation, and making it harder to vote. Borrego was the K-12 policy director who helped build the voucher push Abbott finally rammed through last session, the one now draining public dollars into private tuition across the state.

TPPF’s CEO from 2018 to 2021 was Kevin Roberts. Roberts left TPPF to become president of the Heritage Foundation, where he became the architect and public face of Project 2025.

Reporters who’ve traced the document’s DNA back to its source keep landing in the same place, in Austin. TPPF is an official contributor to Project 2025, and a lot of what’s in that manifesto, like defund-public-schools stuff, the anti-abortion stuff, the deportation stuff, was pioneered in Texas first, under Roberts, at TPPF, years before it got national packaging.

So when I call TPPF a fascist organization, I’m describing an outfit that incubated the operational plan for consolidating federal power around one man’s will, Christian nationalist billionaires like Tim Dunn bankroll that, and that treats democratic guardrails, public education, voting access, checks on executive power, as obstacles to be legislated around. It is the Texas version of the Heritage Foundation because it is where the current head of the Heritage Foundation learned to do this. Borrego built his career inside the state chapter of the same movement that wrote the plan to reshape the federal government around Trump.

A man who spent his late teens and early 20s spewing hate, racism, homophobia, and excessive drug use on the internet went on to work for one of the most fascist organizations in America, and then grew a stupid mustache to run for office.

That’s the resume Texans should actually be scrutinizing in HD118. More than the mustache. More than the tweets, even though those are real and ugly and worth every bit of the scrutiny they’re getting. TPPF tells you who he chose to become as an adult, on purpose, with a paycheck attached. And honestly, it isn’t that far from the tweets he made less than a decade earlier.

And who leaked the tweets to the Current Revolt?

Of course, we can’t expect them to reveal their source. But I’ve received a few calls this week about Republican internal polls, about Greg Abbott being desperate, and about where the GOP wants to spend their money.

And the word on the street is that it was an inside job. The GOP is offering Borrego up as a sacrificial lamb so they can call that House Seat a loss and focus their efforts and money on bigger fish.

Is it true? Let’s see where Greg Abbott’s money lands after the next filing deadline.

Here’s what we know for certain. Jorge Borrego spent his late teens and twenties posting racist and homophobic garbage under his real name. He then spent his career building the intellectual scaffolding for Project 2025 at one of the most influential far-right think tanks in the country.

None of that requires a leak, a conspiracy, or an inside job to be disqualifying. The tweets are real. The TPPF résumé is real. The excuses don’t hold up, and neither does the facial hair.

Whether the GOP is quietly writing HD118 off is a separate question, and we’ll know more once the money moves. But Kristian Carranza doesn’t need Republicans to sacrifice this seat. She needs Bexar County to show up in November and finish what 2024 almost did.

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Note: This is a long one.

Earlier this week, Beto O’Rourke appeared on the Left Reckoning Podcast with David Griscom and Matt Lech. You can catch that full episode HERE. It was such a great conversation. A year or two back, I used to say Left Reckoning should be more Texas-centric and move further away from national politics and toward Texas politics. Since this year’s primary, they’ve really picked up the torch in becoming a leading voice in left-leaning politics (which I love).

Griscom recently published a new book: The Myth of Red Texas: Cowboys, Populism, and Class War in the Radical South. It’s fantastic, especially if you’re unfamiliar with Texas’ left-leaning political history. And on the first page, he mentions the “Lone Star Left.” No, not me. Just Texas leftists, as a whole. But it made me smile.

Near the end of their interview, they asked Beto a question, which I think matters a lot for this election. Voters, especially in Texas, want to know. Here’s a short clip (2 minutes):

Griscom: “We’re talking about trust, we’re talking about confidence, we’re talking about young voters who are the folks who tend to not show up, for a lot of these elections. One issue that is really important, to young people has been Palestine. And it’s been one that has been very central to a lot of people’s political perspective.

And I just want to ask you straight up, do you think that the Texas Democratic Party is big enough to still include politicians who take money from the pro-Israel lobby?”

Beto: “That’s a great question. I’m the last guy to write off any Democrat based on a an ideological difference or a difference of policy. I do think it’s it’s hard to square support for a candidate who who won’t acknowledge what is happening in Palestine, in Gaza, in the West Bank, the genocide that’s been committed with the aid of the American taxpayer and presidential administrations from from both parties. The fact that this continues to this very day and also the fact that you have an organization like AIPAC that is disproportionately impacting the contours of our politics and and our elections.

“You know, $32 million poured into the Michigan Senate primary for example. I think it’s just a a a toxic force in our democracy. I can only imagine if you had a similar organization that was organized around support for the United States China relationship or American Muslims or I mean you you pick it. I think people are right to be concerned about this. I think the best place to adjudicate this is on the campaign trail in town hall meetings to have these candidates answer to their prospective voters. But bottom line, I do not want to see AIPAC have any meaningful role in directing or shaping US policy going forward. It has been terrible first and foremost for America. It has been terrible, terrible for the people of Gaz and the West Bank. And I would argue it has been terrible for the people of Israel as well. And so I hope this is an issue that we hear more about from those who are running for office in Texas.”

I’m going to have to agree with Beto on this. This is something the people of Texas want to hear more about from the people running for federal office. And one of the biggest reasons I agree is that one of my most popular articles in 2026 has been, “Talarico, Crockett, And The Democratic Base On Israel And Palestine.”

Where does each 2026 Democratic candidate stand on Israel, AIPAC, and the money that comes with it?

Let’s get the easiest ones out of the way first. FIVE Texas Democratic candidates have received endorsements directly from Track AIPAC. These are candidates who have explicitly rejected AIPAC and campaign against the Gaza genocide.

Those five candidates are:

• TX06: Danny Minton

• TX19: Kyle Rable

• TX26: Steven Shook

• TX27: Tanya Lloyd

• TX30: Frederick Haynes

And because of the Meet the Candidate articles, I also have statements about Israel/Palestine from many of the candidates. We’ll start with the candidates above.

The question that was asked was: “Do you support ending US military aid to countries with ongoing human rights abuses, including Israel and Egypt?”

Here were the answers:

• Danny Minton: “Yes. And we should acknowledge that human rights abuses happen here in America too. Our foreign policy should reflect a consistent commitment to human rights at home and abroad.”

• Kyle Rable: “Yes. Defund Israel. We, as a moral nation, should not support the wholesale slaughter of children and families. We should never support this and should cut our funding to any nation that participates in genocide.”

• Steven Shook: “Absolutely yes. The United States should not provide military aid, weapons, or diplomatic cover to any government committing serious or ongoing human rights abuses, including Israel, Egypt, or any other ally. Our standards cannot change depending on which country is responsible.
  
  Military assistance must be conditioned on compliance with US and international law, protection of civilians, and meaningful accountability. When a government uses American weapons to enable collective punishment, unlawful killings, forced displacement, torture, or the denial of humanitarian aid, that assistance should be suspended. American tax dollars should never fund human rights abuses.”

• Tanya Lloyd: “US foreign aid should always reflect our national interests and our values as a beacon of democracy. I support rigorous oversight of all military aid to ensure it is used for defense and regional stability, while holding all partners to high standards of human rights and international law.”

But others have answered that question and haven’t received the Track AIPAC endorsement.

TX03 - Evan Hunt: Hunt answered the question, and he talks about it on his website.

• Answer: “I support conditioning all military aid on strict human-rights and end-use compliance. Israel should maintain legitimate security assistance, but the US must enforce Leahy laws. Egypt’s aid should also be reassessed under the same standards.”

• From his website: “I have been deeply horrified by the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, especially over the past two and a half years, which numerous human rights groups have defined as a genocide. The United States must uphold international law and adhere to statutes such as the Leahy Law, which prohibits support for foreign security forces credibly implicated in gross human rights violations. We must also confront the ongoing violence and displacement facing Palestinians in the West Bank, including attacks by extremist settlers. These actions weaken the potential for peace, and these attacks must be met with real accountability and a clear commitment to de-escalation and the protection of civilian communities.”

TX05 - Chelsey Hockett: “Yes. US military aid should not go to governments engaged in ongoing human rights abuses, including Israel, Egypt, and any other country that commits them. This support has persisted across administrations - Democratic and Republican - because of intel sharing and long-standing political and ideological alignment. This has normalized civilian harm, displacement, and violations of international law. The United States has its own history of land seizure, forced removal, and state violence, and we should recognize how these colonizing behaviors repeat globally when enabled. I would love to see the United States refuse to fund harm and align our foreign policy with human dignity, rather than permanent militarization and political convenience, for once.”

TX08 - Laura Jones: “Yes. Human rights can’t be negotiable, and they shouldn’t come with a US taxpayer subsidy attached — that includes Israel and Egypt. I support ending military aid to any government engaged in ongoing human rights abuses. Our tax dollars should reflect our values, not prop up abuses abroad while communities here in TX-08 are told there’s no money left for healthcare, schools, or infrastructure. Accountability has to apply everywhere, not just when it’s politically convenient.”

TX11 - Claire Reynolds: “Yes. Israel has long been an ally of the United States, and I’d love to keep it that way. But when I see my ally dropping bombs on maternity wards, I tend to rethink the company I keep. At the very least, the United States should not be funding this type of action.”

TX21 - Kristin Hook: “Yes. I support full investigations and oversight into countries committing human rights abuses and withholding support – including funding and military aid – from those violating international law and harming civilians.”

TX22 - Marquette Greene-Scott: “I believe that we have enough issues here in the United States that need to be taken care of, like healthcare, homelessness, and veterans’ affairs. We need to stop spending so much of our tax dollars on US military aid to foreign countries. Use our taxes to take care of our people.”

TX31 - Justin Early: “Yes. Any use of US tax dollars for military aid must be tied to human rights standards and subject to review when those standards are violated.”

For the following candidates, I was unable to find any public statements or positions regarding Israel/Palestine or financial entanglements with the AIPAC lobby.

• TX01: Yolanda Prince

• TX02: Shaun Finnie

• TX04: Jason Pearce

• TX09: Leticia Gutierrez

• TX10: Caitlin Rourke

• TX12: Heli Rodriguez Prilliman

• TX13: Mark Nair

• TX14: Thurman Bartie

• TX17: Casey Shepard

• TX23: Katy Padilla Stout

• TX24: Kevin Burge

• TX25: Dione Sims

• TX32: Dan Barrios

• TX36: Rhonda Hart

• TX38: Melissa McDonough

I have reached out to all congressional candidates to participate in the Meet the Candidate series. And just because they do not have a policy position on their website, or it is not easily findable in an interview, doesn’t mean they are pro-AIPAC or pro-war. It just means they haven’t made this policy position public. And maybe that’s something they should think about. My email is always open.

The two incoming flips.

TX15 and TX35 are two seats we’re expecting to flip this year (among others), but like most South Texas Democrats, these guys lean right. And their ideology and the lack of progressive movement in Texas’ toes is a story for another day, but these seats will likely flip, and these likely incoming Congressmen will probably align themselves with Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez.

TX15 - Bobby Pulido: When asked by the Texas Observer where he stands on sending arms to Israel, Pulido said he doesn’t have the kind of information a sitting congressman would have, that he wishes there was peace between the two, and that he blames this administration for not being strong-willed enough.

That’s not a policy position. Pulido’s not wrong that he’s not privy to classified briefings. Neither is anybody else on this list. They found words anyway.

TX35 - Johnny Garcia: This is the one where actual pro-Israel money showed up.

Garcia beat Maureen Galindo in the messy-kind-of-bananas May 2026 runoff. Before that runoff, Galindo went on TPR and said, more or less, that Garcia and “anybody supported by Israel” should be tried for treason. The San Antonio Jewish Federation, correctly, called that antisemitic, and it torched what was left of her campaign.

Garcia told reporters he hadn’t taken any money from AIPAC. That’s true, as far as I can find in FEC filings. What’s also true is the Democratic Majority for Israel endorsed him in February, and per the Texas Tribune, DMFI spent about $163,000 on direct mail on his behalf. That’s an independent expenditure, not a check to his campaign, so Garcia’s denial is technically accurate. It’s also the only real distinction here, because $163,000 in mail hitting your district doesn’t care whether it routed through his campaign account or around it.

So of 28 first-time Democratic candidates in this cycle, this is the one race where the pro-Israel lobby actually opened its wallet. Not AIPAC directly. DMFI, AIPAC’s more polite cousin.

Now, to the oldies. Sitting members (and Colin Allred).

Mostly, we all know the answers to this. The thing about incumbents is they get a bill on the floor, a clock, and a button to push. And on July 15, 2026, Texas’ Democratic delegation got exactly that.

Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie offered an amendment to the State Department spending bill that would have stripped the entire $3.3 billion in military financing to Israel. Massie was the only Republican who voted for his own amendment. It failed, 104 to 314. But 103 House Democrats voted yes, which is the most significant break from unconditional Israel support this caucus has ever put on the record. Here’s how our people voted, next to what the Israel lobby has spent on each of them over their careers.

• Yes = voted to cut or block military financing.

• No = voted to preserve the aid, keep the money flowing as-is.

Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07): No. $205,478 from the Israel lobby over her career, including direct AIPAC money.

Veronica Escobar (TX-16): Yes. $54,896 lifetime, mostly older AIPAC and J Street money.

💙 Christian Menefee (TX-18): Yes. Brand new to Congress, zero dollars on record yet. He walked in and immediately voted to end the bombs. Noted.

Joaquin Castro (TX-20): Yes. $30,401 lifetime, small potatoes, and long ago. And he didn’t just vote yes quietly; he got up on the floor beforehand and said: “Words are not enough… if we hope to change Israel’s behavior, we must use our leverage.”

Henry Cuellar (TX-28): No. $2,399,841. Nearly two and a half million dollars, the single largest Israel-lobby total in the entire Texas delegation, Republicans included, except for Ted Cruz and John Cornyn. AIPAC, DMFI, NORPAC-adjacent money, all of it. You already know Cuellar’s relationship with campaign finance is complicated. This is just one more line item.

Sylvia Garcia (TX-29): Yes. $101,262 lifetime.

Vicente González (TX-34): No. $397,389 lifetime.

💙 Greg Casar (TX-37, was TX-35): Yes, obviously. Track AIPAC put him on their “Approved” list, the same club as AOC and Rashida Tlaib. As chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Casar personally circulated a letter the day before the vote telling colleagues, “the Israeli government has killed more than 70,000 people in Gaza… the Democratic Party needs a new approach to Israel and Palestine.”

Worth a footnote: Marc Veasey, the retiring TX-33 incumbent whose seat Allred is trying to claim, voted No.

Now, Allred.

This is where I have to be careful, because there’s a real story here and it’s not the one either side wants to tell.

Allred has somewhere north of $625,000 in lifetime support from pro-Israel donors, AIPAC included. His campaign has called him, in an actual quote to the Washington Free Beacon, “a steadfast supporter of Israel” who is “proud to have earned the support of both AIPAC and J Street.”

His actual voting record backs that up. In November 2023, right after October 7, he voted against the House GOP’s stripped-down Israel aid bill, and if you’re thinking, “Oh, so he broke with the pro-Israel position,” no. He voted no because the bill didn’t include enough for Israel, plus Ukraine, plus the border. His words: “We must put aside partisan politics to stand with our ally Israel.”

This go-around, he promised progressives in Dallas he’d be turning over a “new leaf” to combat Julie Johnson’s own pro-war record and distance himself from the pro-Israel lobby. While he made these statements at town halls and in conversations with progressive leaders, I couldn’t find anything on his website or on record. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope he keeps his word.

So that’s the map.

Five candidates who put it in writing and rejected AIPAC outright. A dozen more who answered a direct question honestly, even knowing it might cost them a donor or two. Two South Texas seats about to flip that won’t move the needle on this at all. Fifteen candidates who haven’t said a word. And a delegation of sitting Democrats where the votes finally split, 103 to 98, for the first time since October 7th.

David Griscom asked Beto if the Texas Democratic Party is still big enough to hold politicians who take AIPAC money. Look at the list. It already does. The question isn’t whether that’s true. It’s whether it stays true after November, and whether the candidates still sitting on the fence get comfortable staying there.

I’ll keep updating this as more answers come in. You know where to find me.

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Every election season, I’m bombarded with calls from candidates and campaign managers who want to convince me that, despite what the maps and the polls say, THIS YEAR they are going to flip their district. They’re working harder. They’re raising more money. They’re knocking on doors. They have Republicans promising to vote for them. Yet, almost every year, those promises fall flat.

It isn’t for lack of effort or passion. Most of the time, it’s the gerrymandering or the billionaire fascists hosing money into their opponent’s race. But there’s something different about this year. I can feel it in my gut. I can feel it in my bones. And I’m looking around at my beloved state, and it seems like people are waking up. This time, I don’t think it’s my echo chamber.

Let’s start with the numbers.

Civiqs has been tracking this since the day Trump took the oath, and as of late July, Trump’s net approval in Texas sits at -13. Texas is one of eleven states Trump carried by double digits in 2024 where he’s now underwater, in the “should have been safe but isn’t” column.

Then there’s The Economist and YouGov, who ran their own state-by-state model in late August and found something even uglier. Trump is underwater in 47 out of 50 states, and Texas is sitting at -22. Nationally, the two outfits aren’t even measuring the same planet. Civiqs has him at -24. YouGov has him worse, at -26.

Different methods, different assumptions, nine points apart on the same state in the same month. When two outfits looking at the same guy in the same state come back nine points apart, the honest read is “something in Texas is genuinely unstable right now.”

The August 21 to 24 Economist/YouGov poll has Democrats up 6 points nationally among registered voters, 46 to 40. But break it down further and something interesting happens. Among the voters who say they will definitely show up in November, that lead balloons to 12 points, 52 to 40. That’s the group actually likely to cast a ballot, and Democrats are cleaning up with them.

What does this mean?

It means the wave, if it’s coming, depends entirely on whether the definite voters actually show up in the numbers they’re promising, and whether the probably voters, who are currently leaning hard red, stay home like they say they might. Pollsters have been burned before betting on turnout models. It’s a real Democratic advantage sitting right next to an asterisk.

Statewide movement.

While all that’s playing out, the Cook Political Report repriced the whole state. On August 20, Cook moved the U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico from “Leans Republican” to a flat-out Toss-up. They moved the governor’s race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa from “Solid Republican,” meaning don’t even bother watching it, to “Likely Republican,” meaning watch it.

Here’s what’s underneath it:

Money’s telling the same story. Talarico has outraised Paxton by more than $60 million so far and had to refund over a million dollars in excess contributions because people kept sending him money he wasn’t legally allowed to keep. Trump has personally promised to help Paxton close the gap, which tells you the national party sees the same hole in the boat I do.

Now, we’ve been here before. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke ran the most expensive, most energetic Senate campaign this state had seen in a generation, got Texans talking about a “blue wave,” and still lost to Ted Cruz by 2.6 points. But that near miss did something else. It flipped state legislative seats up and down the ballot. Keep that in your back pocket, because it matters for what comes next.

The expected flips.

Remember when Republicans did their mid-decade redistricting, and on several occasions I spoke about how stupid they were drawing the maps, because instead of basing the districts on the census numbers, they based them on Trump’s 2024 win numbers? It still cracks me up.

This is how Republicans gave themselves a “dummymander,” and instead of “gaining five seats,” as Trump told them to, they will lose two, five, seven, really there’s no telling at this point, but they will lose.

TX15: Bobby Pulido is beating Monica De La Cruz. 50 to 45. Pulido is ahead. Cook Political Report is still calling this district “Lean R” as of August 13, which means Cook’s rating is now five days older than a poll that says Cook’s rating is wrong. That gap, between what the forecaster says and what the voters say, is the whole story of this district right now.

TX28: Henry Cuellar is up eleven on Tano Tijerina, 45 to 34. Sounds comfortable. It isn’t. Only 69% of Democrats in that district say they’re actually voting for Cuellar. Fifteen percent are still undecided. This is a man who has represented this seat for over two decades, and he can’t lock down his own party. The lean-district math everybody’s been using, which had him sitting pretty at D+23, was wrong. The real number is half that.

TX34: Vicente Gonzalez is up three on Eric Flores. 45 to 42. That’s a coin flip with a slight thumb on the scale, and it’s exactly how Cook and Inside Elections already have it rated. Toss Up.

Look at how far each of these districts has moved since the top of the ticket ran through them:

TX15 moved twenty-three points in two years.

Now, before anybody gets too excited about the “Hispanic realignment reversal is here,” I want to point out something. TX34 has the smallest swing of the three, thirteen points, and it’s not because the voters there care less about Trump. It’s the candidates. Look at the favorability numbers underneath these races. In TX-15, Pulido’s net favorability is positive eleven. De La Cruz is net negative two.

In TX34, both Gonzalez and Flores are sitting at net negative one and negative two, essentially tied, nobody particularly liked by anybody, and the swing there is the smallest of the three. We have to get Vicente Gonzalez re-elected this year (as much as he sucks), and then plan another primary against him in 2028. The other guy wants to starve babies.

The surprises.

Trust me for a minute, because I’m about to walk you through some math that gets less impressive the closer you look at it, and I think that’s actually the honest and useful version of this story.

Taylor Rehmet, a first-time candidate, ran for a Tarrant County state Senate seat that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Rehmet won the special election runoff 57 to 42. Do that math yourself, and it’s a 15-point win. You’ll see it reported around as “14%,” both by The Texan and Wikipedia. I’m going with the actual vote count over the rounded-down headline number every time.

Trump plus 17 to Rehmet plus 15 is a 32-point swing in one district. That number went viral for a reason. It’s a hell of a number. But before you go pasting it onto every district on the map, I want to walk you through why that’s not how any of this works.

There isn’t one swing number out of SD09. There are two, and they’re measuring different things:

Both of those numbers are true. Neither one is “the” SD09 swing, because they’re not measuring the same thing against the same baseline. Anyone who flattens this into one clean number is picking the flashier one.

If you take the full 32-point district-wide swing and slap it evenly across all 38 congressional districts, you know what happens?

Thirty-five of them flip Democratic. Thirty-five. Out of thirty-eight. Only TX-1, TX-13, and TX-19 survive.

If you believe that’s what’s actually about to happen in November, I have several bridges to sell you, and one of them is in El Paso.

What I did wrong, and what everybody sharing that tweet is doing wrong, is treating SD09 like a uniform statewide event instead of a story about Latino voters specifically, in one specific place. So instead, weight the swing by how Hispanic each district actually is. Scale that 26-point Hispanic vote shift by each district’s Hispanic voting-age population, leave everything else where it sits, and you get something like this:

I left TX9 off that list on purpose, because I got this one wrong in an earlier draft of my own thinking. TX9 has a big Hispanic population (58.6%), and on paper it looks like the juiciest reach seat on the board. But Cook’s own redistricting analysis has the new lines at Trump plus 20. That’s a district Republicans built specifically to be safe, and no single special election’s worth of momentum closes a 20-point gap. TX9 isn’t a surprise seat. TX23 and TX35 are the real ones, and since both have been added to the DCCC list, we will likely see them flip in November.

One more thing. SD09 is a Tarrant County suburban and urban district covering Fort Worth, Keller, and North Richland Hills. It is not the Rio Grande Valley. Rehmet also won as a massive underdog, got outspent 12 to 1, and still won by 15 in a low-turnout special election runoff where the only thing on the ballot was his race. That’s a different electorate, a different turnout universe, and a different kind of election than a November general with a governor, a senator, and every congressional seat on the same ballot. I think the Latino swing in SD09 is real, and it’s telling us something true about where this state is headed. TX23 and TX35 earn their spot on this list because the district-specific math backs them up, not because one special election three hundred miles away got everybody excited.

Could election forecasters still be behind?

I don’t think Cook’s “Lean R” tag on TX15 is the last word on that district.

Cook Political Report does its job well. This isn’t a “the establishment forecasters don’t get it” rant. A political scientist at SUNY Buffalo went back through forty years of their ratings and found that when Cook calls a race “Solid,” they’re right 99.9% of the time. “Likely,” they’re right 97% of the time.

But look what happens to that accuracy the further down the confidence scale you go, and specifically, look what happens to ratings made at exactly the point in the cycle we’re sitting in right now:

Ratings Cook publishes in July and August, before Labor Day, before the fall campaign really kicks into gear, before people are actually paying attention, hold up 85.7% of the time. And we already have a live poll from five days after that rating showing the exact race it’s supposed to describe going the other direction.

I’m not asking you to believe Cook is bad at this. I’m asking you to believe the calendar. A rating made in August carries a real, measurable, published chance of being stale by November, and TX15 is exactly the kind of call that historically doesn’t survive the fall.

Look at where they had TX23 and TX35 in June versus where they are now. In June, both districts were sitting in the “Likely” tier. By August, both had moved into Cook’s competitive bucket, toss-up or lean territory. That’s their own analysts moving their own ratings.

Cook’s own analysis of past cycles shows that when a president’s approval is declining through the summer, the way it declined in 2006, 2010, and 2018, their ratings keep moving against that president’s party all the way through the fall. It keeps sliding until Election Day. Trump’s approval has been sliding since spring. If the historical pattern holds, that means the ratings we’re looking at today- Lean R on TX15, Toss Up on TX34, competitive-but-not-official on TX23 and TX35- are not the final word. They’re a snapshot of a trend that, if 2006, 2010, and 2018 are any guide, isn’t done moving yet.

How do we confirm all of this?

Magic8Ball! Not yet.

Here’s exactly what I’m watching, and exactly what would tell us if this is wrong.

Q3 fundraising lands October 15; money doesn’t lie about enthusiasm.

Cook not moving TX15 before Labor Day would actually be a real data point, and not the one you’d think. It wouldn’t necessarily mean I’m wrong. It might mean Cook doesn’t trust a single academic poll enough to move a rating on it alone, which is a reasonable, boring, professional thing for them to do. But if a second poll comes in agreeing with TSU and Cook still hasn’t moved, that’s when I start asking harder questions about why a forecaster with an 85.7 percent track record at this exact point in the cycle is sitting on a rating five points of live data disagree with.

And TX23 is the one I’d tell you to watch most closely, because it’s the cleanest test. It’s the other true border seat. Nobody’s polled it yet, as far as I can find. If somebody does, and the Hispanic-weighted swing model I walked you through holds up in an actual district that isn’t SD09, that’s the moment this stops being an interesting theory and starts being a pattern with a second data point behind it.

I don’t know how this ends. Nobody does. What I know is that the maps say one thing, the polls are starting to say another, and for the first time in longer than I can remember, the gap between those two things is working in our favor instead of against it. Keep your popcorn ready.

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• 69 days until the November election!

• Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.