Early voting starts tomorrow in Texas. Some of you may be jumping out of your skin and ready to cast your vote as soon as the polls open. I expect long lines everywhere, especially in Tarrant County, where so many polling locations were cut.
I usually try to vote at the end of the first week, or sometime during the second week, so the lines are shorter. Here are some “Special Tips for First-Time or Infrequent Voters.”
I’ll be watching the polls across the state tomorrow, and you should expect a full report from me late tomorrow on how the first day shook out in Texas. If it gets too late, it may be early Tuesday. We should expect the Secretary of State to be slower than each county’s election website, but not every county posts its early voting numbers. Stay tuned.
Before we spend the next two weeks deep in early voting in Texas, let’s look up from our own backyard for a moment. Control of Congress won’t be decided in Texas alone. And Talarico is only a small piece of the future possible Senate majority.
The US Senate.
Earlier this year, during the Michigan primary, I may have mentioned once or twice how much I liked Abdul El-Sayed, and hoped he won. And every clip I see of him continues to solidify those feelings.
El-Sayed has maintained a lead in Michigan polls. He is likely to win in MI. Early voting in MI starts on October 24. Two of his top priorities are money out of politics and Medicare for All. Secretly, I’m hoping he and James Talarico become besties.
Besides Talarico and El-Sayed, several other Senate races are happening across the country.
The race in Florida, unfortunately, is still “Likely R,” but the Democratic candidate, Angie Nixon, honestly should be polling much higher. Her priorities include Medicare for All and getting big money out of politics.
Florida Democrats have long shared some of the problems of Texas, being under-organized and completely ignored by the national apparatus. Nixon is being outraised by the Republican running, and I found no reporting of any DSCC or Senate Majority PAC ad money for Nixon. Most of her national support is coming from the progressive wing, like Bernie Sanders and Chris Murphy.
Did you know Iowa has only 3.1 million people? It’s kind of crazy that they get two Senators, while Texas, with a population of 31.7 million, gets the same number.
Iowa’s Democratic Senate candidate, Josh Turek, is a populist pragmatist. He isn’t as far left as El-Sayed and Nixon, but he refused corporate PAC money, wants to ban congressional stock trading, backs the PRO Act, and wants to keep Wall Street private equity from buying up Iowa homes and farmland.
Turek is leading in Iowa polls against his MAGA opponent, but not by much. Early voting has already started here.
Then there’s Ohio, which is interesting. Sherrod Brown lost a Senate seat in 2024 to Bernie Moreno (R). Now he’s running against Jon Husted, whom the Ohio Governor appointed to JD Vance’s old seat when Vance became VP. Brown has led every poll this month by between 3 and 8 points.
The entire Maine Senate race has been a disaster. However, looking at the Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson’s, platform is absolutely progressive, with Medicare for All, abolishing ICE, and banning members of Congress from trading stocks. He’s a great replacement for that other guy. Compared with Susan Collins, you would think it would be easy for the people of Maine to choose.
Jackson is up in the polls, but only slightly.
Last, in Alaska, there’s Mary Peltola. She’s taking on incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Peltola has led in every poll since September. She’s rejected the label of “liberal” and is running as a moderate. And her priorities read like it. And if that’s what it takes to flip Alaska. Okay, it’s not us.
Five Senate seats are toss-ups: AK, IA, ME, OH, and TX.
If Democrats flip all five, they will hold 53 seats in the Senate, which is not a filibuster-proof majority. It takes 60 votes to end a filibuster in the US Senate. We’ll be seven short, and I’m not sure that John Fetterman counts as one of us.
And then the question becomes whether Chuck Schumer has the political courage to kill the filibuster when it matters, if he becomes Majority Leader. And how that plays out may determine what AOC does in 2028. Or perhaps she’s already made up her mind.
El-Sayed’s race is in a blue seat, but he’ll be replacing moderate Gary Peters (D). But he’s far from the only incoming (🤞🏻) progressive in the Senate.
Juliana Stratton, running in a mostly safe blue Illinois, will be replacing Dick Durbin (D). Her platform calls for a $25 minimum wage, Medicare for All, and abolishing ICE. Plus, she said she won’t support Schumer for leader because he’s too tepid.
Peggy Flanagan, a rising progressive star from Minnesota, has Elizabeth Warren among her backers. Flanagan’s platform promises “radical change,” including tearing apart ICE and expanding Medicare to everyone.
Both Stratton and Flanagan are shifts left, compared to their Democratic predecessors.
What about progressives going into Congress?
Almost 30 new progressives are expected to join Congress in January. We already know who’s coming from Texas, but here are a few solid progressives you should expect to see in the next two years.
Ideally, we want progressives to win and keep replacing the moderate and establishment wing of the party, because the majority is only worth something if we’re willing to use it. A caucus full of people who ran on Medicare for All and refused corporate money doesn’t get to hide behind procedure, because their voters will hold them accountable.
Safe blue seats:
Mai Vang (CA07)
Melat Kiros (CO01)
Donavan McKinney (MI13)
Adam Hamawy (NJ12)
Claire Valdez (NY07)
Brad Lander (NY10)
Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY13)
Chris Rabb (PA03)
Red seats, expected to flip blue:
Randy Villegas (CA22)
Will Lawrence (MI07)
Sam Forstag (MT01)
Brian Poindexter (OH07)
The rest of the country matters, even if we don’t vote in it.
In Washington, DC, it’s all about the majority. Except in the Senate, where it’s more about a three-fifths majority, but that’s a discussion for another day.
Reading recommendation:
Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy by Adam Jentelson.
Texas has to show up and do its part, too.
Make a plan to vote, whether that’s tomorrow morning or the end of next week. Then take one person with you. A neighbor, a coworker, the cousin who swears their vote doesn’t count.
I’ll see you tomorrow night with the first-day numbers.
16 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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You may have said this before but what is the expectation for the Texas House and Senate?