A New Dawn For Democrats In Texas?
Texas Democrats are charging head first into a red sea of chaos. Is this a signal to the coming end of GOP dominance?
The message that I’ve been hearing from Democrats, Liberals, and Leftists all around the Lone Star State for the last year has been, “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!”
During this year’s legislative session and the multiple special sessions that followed, we saw something fundamentally changed within the public political engagement in Austin. Every single culture war issue Republicans pushed in the legislature had substantial public opposition and very little support. Yet, they pushed these bad bills anyway, despite them being unpopular. Everyone noticed.
There isn’t a marginalized group that the majority party hasn’t targeted within the last two sessions. Women, poor, Asian, immigrant, Black, young, and old have all been subjects of oppressive measures by the Republican Party. The people are fed up, and they are pushing back.
Democrats have never had more candidates on the state ballot.
I published “Who Will Be On The Texas Ballot in 2024.” I’ve since updated a few times. The Secretary of State’s website has been slow to publish the Democrats. Plus, the county and state parties must submit paperwork, and I read they have up to five days…or nine days—one of those. Regardless, we don’t have all the names yet, but I heard directly from candidates and party insiders about which seats made the deadline and are still not published.
Every single Republican Senator running has a Democratic challenger.
Only 22 seats of the 150 in the House are unopposed by a Democrat.
Every Republican on the Supreme Court of Texas has a Democratic opponent.
Every Republican on the State Board of Education has a Democratic opponent.
This is huge!
On my list, I still see 36 unoccupied seats in the House, but again, we await more updates. In contrast, the Republicans are leaving 46 House seats unopposed.
We have several Republicans in Congress who are going unopposed. While I’ve heard some griping about that, these seats are safe red. While representation in DC is necessary, state elections are just as important, if not more.
Everything that impacts our lives the most happens in the State Legislature.
Competitive State House races.
Depending on who you listen to, either none of the races are competitive, or all of them are, and the truth is somewhere in between. In 2022, Democrats severely underperformed in Texas. But we need to put that behind us and learn from our mistakes. The biggest being:
We need to flip 12 seats to flip the House. We CAN do that!! Democrats in Texas already know that we outnumber Republicans. We know that from conversations with our neighbors and friends. Texas is funny because even though more people live in rural areas than any other state, 85% of us live in urban areas, and urban areas are blue.
The only reason that Texas is even red, to begin with, is gerrymandering. Do you know what happened during the last legislative session? When Republicans redrew the maps, they didn’t make them red; they just made them red to keep their seats. They did this because there was no more slice of the pie to cut up.
If Democrats are organized, they can flip multiple seats. A few months ago, the State Party launched the “Texas Blueprint.”
This coordinated campaign aims to bring together county parties and allied organizations, focusing on leveraging the strengths of Democratic partners throughout the state. It emphasizes collaboration with mission-driven organizations and local Democratic groups at the county level.
If all goes as planned, no one is on their own anymore. The grassroots, the county parties, various PACs, and the Texas Democratic Party (TDP) are all holding hands, working together, and achieving common goals.
Yes, this is what we want!
The Texas Blueprint initiative will elect Democrats across various government levels.
Which counties is the Texas Blueprint launching in, and which House seats can they flip?
These are going to be the House races to watch, and I’ll give further analysis of all of them later. The counties below are participating in the Texas Blueprint. The races I list are low-hanging fruit, but other seats are flippable.
HD121 - Steve Allison (R). Republicans call Allison a RINO, but he still votes with them on many of the culture war issues. Allison has two Republican primary challengers and two Democratic challengers. Both are late filers, and I haven’t found a website yet. Shekhar Sinha (D) and Laurel Swift (D).
HD37 - Janie Lopez (R). How did she even win in the first place? Her campaign consisted of blowing the horn on her pickup truck and driving up and down streets in the district as her family shouted, “Vote for Janie.” She had countless videos of her doing that on Facebook. She won by less than two points. Democrats had a low turnout last year, so she won. She will not be going back to Austin. Four Democrats are running for this seat. Alex Dominguez (D), Ruben Cortez Jr. (D), Jonathan Garcia (D), and Carol Lynn Sanchez (D). There are no websites on Garcia or Sanchez yet, but one of these four will oust Lopez next November.
HD63 - Fredrick “Felony Pants” Frazier (R). Only last week, Frederick Frazier pleaded no contest to felony charges of impersonating a public servant. Besides having two Republican primary challengers, he’ll also face Tony Adams (D) in November. Frazier is now on probation while he’s in the Texas House. We’ll have to wait and see if he violates it.
HD112 - Angie Chen Button (R). Chen Button is facing a primary challenger. On the Democratic side, the Gen-Z, former Miss Texas is running to replace Button. Averie Bishop (D) is a fantastic candidate capable of flipping this seat.
Fort Bend County
HD26 - Jacey Jetton (R). Jetton also has two primary challengers. Daniel Lee (D), who also ran against Jetton in 2022, is running again. Hopefully, Lee learned some new strategies and will have a successful campaign this time.
HD132 - Mike Schofield (R). Schofield is facing one Democratic challenger, Chase West (D). This is West’s second stab at this seat. Not long ago, I spoke with him about ways he plans to run his campaign better than last time. I believe this seat can flip.
HD138 - Lacey Hull (R). Everyone in Harris County knew about Lacey Hull’s sex life, yet Republicans reelected her anyway. Worse, everyone in Titus County knew what Lacey Hull did to Cole Hefner and reelected him anyway. Regardless, Houston Republican lawyer Jared Woodfill has launched a primary campaign against Hull. It’ll be an exciting primary to watch, but HD138 is not safe for Republicans. Stephanie Morales (D) is going to this seat again. This time, she may flip it.
HD93 - Nate Schatzline (R). Schatzline is one of the worst Christofascists in the House. However, his district isn’t safe red. Last year, he won in a year where Democrats underperformed, and his opponent was virtually invisible. Perla Bojorquez (D) is not and will not be invisible. She’s fantastic. Make sure to check her out.
Craig Goldman(R). Craig Goldman is vacating HD97 as he launches a bid for Congress TX12. Two Republicans and two Democrats are running for this seat. Diane Symons (D) and Carlos Walker (D) think they can flip this seat blue. An imaginary person ran for the Democratic seat in HD97 in 2022 and came within 16 points of winning. (I’m not sure if they were imaginary or not. Their name was Lauren McLauren, and no one ever met them. Another story for a different day.)
HD52 - Caroline Harris Davila (R). Harris only won this district by 10 points, while their opponent in 2022 was greatly underfunded. This seat has two Democrats running for it and is flippable. Jennie Birkholz (D) and Angel Carroll (D) will go head-to-head on the primary ballot in March. Williamson County also flipped blue in 2020 and is primed to do so again in 2024.
You heard it here first. Michelle’s 2024 House predictions are the seats I’m placing my money on flipping blue. I listed thirteen seats here. We only need twelve, but with the Texas Blueprint plan, they have a better chance than ever.
Why is flipping the House so important?
Flipping the Texas House would significantly disrupt the GOP’s legislative agenda.
We still have to flip the Senate and the executive branch, which we’re on track for in 2026, to achieve everything we imagine government should be. However, flipping the House would be a considerable step to harm reduction regarding the Republican’s legislative priorities.
As Texas gears up for a pivotal election, the sincere efforts of Texas Democrats reflect a growing determination to change the state’s political landscape. This push to flip key House seats is not just a battle for numbers but a deeper fight to reshape policies affecting every Texan. Success in these races could mark a significant shift in Texas politics, challenging long-standing Republican control and potentially setting a new direction for the state’s future.
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