Abbott's Pre-Election Rhetoric: A Sign Of GOP Desperation
Understanding the political strategy behind Greg Abbott's pre-election rhetoric.
In Texas, you can set your watch to an election based on Governor Greg Abbott’s political rhetoric and actions. In 2018, with only 15 days until the election, Abbott proclaimed he was more powerful than Putin. In 2020, with only 33 days until the election, Abbott limited the number of ballot drop boxes in each county. In 2022, with only 82 days until the election, Abbott doubled down on bussing migrants to blue cities despite the scathing report, which found a heavy cost to taxpayers.
Governor Abbott’s pre-election behavior reflects a pattern of bold, controversial actions designed to galvanize his base and address his political vulnerabilities. While seemingly outlandish, these actions reveal Abbott’s concerns about maintaining his and the Republican Party’s hold on Texas. His focus on divisive topics is a reactionary approach.
Greg Abbott has a reason to fear his hold on power: Republicans have been losing ground in Texas for over twenty years.
2004 = Republicans won Texas by 43 points.
2008 = Republicans won Texas by 12 points.
2012 = Republicans won by Texas 16 points (outlier).
2016 = Republicans won by Texas 9 points.
2020 = Republicans won by Texas 5 points.
Yesterday, he reminded us that when Democrats are nipping at his heels. With only 92 days until the 2024 general election, we can expect plenty more from Greg Abbott, but this week, he gave us a peek into the GOP’s November hopes.
If you can stomach it, here is the full interview.
Abbott’s assertion that Republicans will pick up three seats is absurd. Republicans have been losing ground in Texas for more than twenty years. There is one (exactly one) seat in the South that is at risk of flipping red; the other two will remain blue. On top of that, Democrats could quite possibly pick up several seats.
Abbott is blurting out nonsense, trying to manifest enough votes to secure vouchers for his billionaire buddies, but it won’t happen.
This strategy is designed not only to rally his base but also to demoralize Democrats.
By projecting confidence and inevitability, Abbott aims to create a sense of hopelessness among Democratic voters, discouraging them from turning out and participating in the electoral process. This tactic leverages psychological warfare, attempting to shape the narrative that Republican dominance is unchallenged and that Democratic efforts are in vain.
Abbott’s assertions are part of a broader strategy to undermine Democratic morale and voter turnout. By repeatedly emphasizing supposed Republican momentum, he hopes to sow doubt and resignation among his opponents. However, the reality tells a different story, with data showing a narrowing gap between the parties in Texas. It’s essential for Democratic voters to see through this rhetoric and remain engaged, recognizing that their votes are crucial in shaping the political landscape.
The three seats Abbott claims the GOP will flip.
House District 34: This is the “Corpus area” district Abbott referred to. This seat was held for a long time by incumbent Democrat Abel Herrero. Herrero retired this year, leaving his seat open. The Democratic nominee for this seat is Soloman Ortiz JR. Ortiz is a returning House member who previously served in the House.
I spoke with Ortiz in January as part of my Left In Texas series. You can see that full interview here.
When Republicans redrew the maps in 2021, they gave Democrats a +10-point advantage. Despite Democrats essentially staying home in 2022, Herrero still won this seat by +13 points against his Republican challenger.
In addition, Ortiz has raised almost five times the amount as his Republican challenger (so far).
HD34 is the only blue seat in the “Corpus area.” So, why would Abbott assert this was a flippable seat for Republicans? The data tells us otherwise. Considering the historical voting trends and current fundraising data, the likelihood of this seat flipping red seems very low.
House District 70: I caught up with Mihaela Plesa at an event earlier this year. She knows Republicans are targeting her since HD70 was the first Collin County seat to go blue in a long time.
Some activists have expressed the need for Democrats to hold on to this seat, based on the 2022 election results, when Plesa barely scraped by with less than 1,000 votes.
But here I am again, like a broken record, reminding the world that Democrats stayed home in 2022. It was a midterm election, and Democratic participation is always lower.
When Republicans redrew this district in 2021, they gave Democrats an +11-point advantage. They purposely drew this seat blue to cram three other Republican House seats in Collin County.
While Plesa doesn’t have the luxury of sitting back and coasting to a win, she’ll have to work for it, and I also don’t see this seat flipping red. Plesa has thus far raised six times the amount of her Republican challenger.
Further reading:
House District 80: This is the only seat in Texas that Democrats risk losing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we will. It is one of the few areas in Texas that has been maybe trending red, or perhaps they have a problem with voter turnout.
Republicans gave themselves a +4-point advantage in this district in 2021. Then, the long-time Democrat incumbent retired in 2022. The former Uvalde mayor and frequent Fox News guest Don McLaughlin is running on a far-right platform.
How this race will play out in November is anyone’s guess. Maybe Republicans will flip it, or perhaps they’ll be so mad at the week’s outrage that they’ll stay home. Four points isn’t massive, especially in a year when one of the presidential candidates has 34 felonies.
HD80 is a critical seat for Democrats to hold on to in November because we only need 12 House seats to flip the Texas House. The Democrat running in this district is Cecilia Castellano. You can learn more about her on her website and Facebook.
The last people in the world we should be listening to are Greg Abbott and his cronies.
As election day nears, Abbott’s claims will become more outlandish, desperate to manifest votes for his agenda. The closer we get to an election, the more he talks out of his ass. It’s crucial to stay informed, scrutinize his assertions, and focus on the data that truly reflects the political landscape in Texas.
Abbott’s rhetoric may be attention-grabbing, but it often lacks substance and distracts from the real issues. His rhetoric is aimed at demoralizing Democrats. As Texans, we must look beyond his bluster, analyze the facts, and make informed decisions that truly benefit our state. Let’s not be swayed by his desperate tactics but vote based on the truth and what’s best for Texas.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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I really wonder if Democrats in Texas and nationwide truly understand how much electoral and political power we have. We react to GOP bluster as if it's real while ignoring our own strength and the willingness to deploy that strength consistently.
I've long felt that Republicans don't win elections but that Democrats lose them. We fail to show up to vote in ALL elections or downplay the civic responsibilities of knowing how our government works and who controls elected offices. Hopefully the 2024 election will finally rouse many Democrats from our slumber.
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