An Early Look At The 2026 Elections

A preview of the key races and emerging contenders.

Jun 04, 2025

I’m ready for some good news. How about you? Now that the Legislative Session is over, we’re moving on to the fun part. Campaign season. 🎉Candidates have until December 8 to file to run for office in Texas. Yes, an entire 11 months before the actual election. That’s because we have an early primary season. One of the earliest in the country.

Here are the critical election dates through the mid-terms:

November 4, 2025: TEXAS CONSTITUTIONAL ELECTIONS (We’ll talk about these more soon.)
December 8, 2025: Filing deadline for primary candidates.
March 3, 2026: Primary elections.
November 3, 2026: Mid-term elections.

So, while a few candidates have announced or filed a treasurer with the state, candidates still have six months to decide and throw their hat into the ring.

You can expect periodic updates about who’s on the ballot from Lone Star Left.

Over the next 17 months, I will be tracking state-wide races, the Legislature, and Congressional races. Republicans and Democrats alike, (and some Independents).

While Democrats still have six months to decide whether to run and file paperwork, this is a very early look at who has already thrown their hats into the ring.

Who has already filed for re-election?

Remember, they have until December.

John Bucy (D-HD136)

That’s all (through the TEC). 😁 The rest will pour in later. But shout out to Rep. Bucy for being ready to get back in the fight.

Governor.

While Abbott hasn’t filed yet, he has 100% declared his intent on it. Abbott will run to be our governor until he decides to retire or run for the presidency. Considering how much power Abbott holds in Texas, even running for presidency, he would let go of some of the immense power he has. We’re going to have to vote him out.

On the Republican side, there is Bill James, who claims to be a Conservative but is running as an Independent. Arturo Espinosa also recently ran for San Antonio mayor, now he’s throwing his hat in for the governor’s race. Then, there’s Mark Goloby, fresh off a failed run for Harris Central Appraisal District. There’s also Ronnie “Bubba” Tullos, who claims to be a Republican for the working man, lol.

As it stands, Abbott is going to have an easy primary season.

On the Democrat side, we have Nick Pappas, who you may have recently seen on social media. We also have Latricia Worrick.

I’ve heard rumors about various Democrats who may be considering a run, but until they file the paperwork and make the announcements, it’s just speculation. It will take a lot of money and hard work to unseat Abbott, twice as much if you don’t already have a base and a name. So, for all those aspiring politicians with big ambitions, I say to you, “Go little rockstar.”

Lt. Governor.

75-year-old Dan Patrick has announced his re-election campaign, but if Abbott fails to veto his THC ban, he might not be as safe as he wants to think.

Timothy Mabry, a Republican, is launching a primary challenge against Dan Patrick.

As we all know by now, Vikki Goodwin has launched her campaign for Lt. Governor. I’m excited about this move for her. Goodwin leans progressive on the ideological spectrum, and her priorities align well with those of Texas Democratic voters. Did you know that Texas has never had a woman as its Lieutenant Governor?

Right now, I like Goodwin’s chances, but remember it’s still early, and I’m still hearing about other potential Democratic campaigns for Lt. Governor. We’ll find out in the next few months if those were just rumors or if we’ll have a competitive Democratic primary election for this seat.

Attorney General.

With Ken Paxton challenging John Cornyn, he’s abandoning his AG seat. Honestly, even if we wind up with another Republican, it’ll still be better than Ken Paxton. It would be nearly impossible to beat Paxton’s level of corruption, even if someone tried. (Famous last words.)

State Senator Mayes Middleton has launched a bid for Attorney General, which is just super gross. Middleton’s net worth is well over $500 million, and he spent his legislative career focused on harming poor people, children, and other marginalized communities. Recently, he made headlines for saying, “There is no such thing as the separation of church and state.”

Middleton has already raked in several big endorsements, and seems to be the Republican front-runner this early in the game. But it’s early, and anything could happen.

Although he hasn’t filed yet, it’s my understanding that Joe Jaworski will be running for the AG’s office again. We liked Jaworski. He had a lot of good ideas about what an Attorney General’s office should be doing in Texas, especially as it pertains to civil rights. In a state like Texas, where Confederate statues still stand across our state, and sundown towns still stretch across every corner, having someone fighting for civil rights from the state would be transformative.

The AG’s race is one that we’ll revisit a lot over the next year.

Texas Comptroller.

Glenn Hagar is leaving the Comptroller’s office to serve as Chancellor of the Texas A&M University System. Abbott will appoint someone as his replacement when that happens. I don’t know when that’s supposed to happen, though. Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick and ex-State Senator, QAnon-extremist Don Huffines, have both thrown their hat in.

Abbott and Huffines have beef, though. They’ve had it for a while, so I doubt Abbott will choose Huffines. Craddick comes from a corrupt, oil-sucking family, long known for their corruption. Just what the Republicans love.

If Abbott appoints Craddick, her Railroad Commissioner seat will go up for a special election, and the Comptroller’s seat is up in 2026.

So, we need a Democrat running for that seat next year, either way. Someone told me that we have a candidate, but now I can’t remember who it was. No one has filed yet.

Texas State Senate.

I haven’t reviewed which of these seats are competitive since 2022, but we’ll revisit this data sometime this year. Off the top of my head, I’m sure at least four of these Republican seats can be flipped… if we have a high turnout year.

Most of Texas can be flipped if people start voting. However, we didn’t even achieve a 50% voter turnout last year, in a presidential year, so we all agree that this has to change if we want to flip Texas. I’ll never give up on the Lone Star State and always believe this will be our year.

Which State Senators are up for election?

Bryan Hughes (R-SD01)
Bob Hall (R-SD02)
Robert Nichols (R-SD03)
- Some East Texas “Texit” person named Rhonda Ward is running for this seat to “take Texas back.” She claims to be an eighth-generation Texan, so she’s either Tejano, an Indigenous American, or a descendant of slave owners. Considering the “Texit” movement is one to turn Texas into a white ethnostate, we can guess which.
Brandon Creighton (R-SD04)
Charles Schwertner (R-SD05)
Kelly Hancock (R-SD09)
SD11 - This was Mayes Middleton’s seat, which he is leaving open with his AG run.
Borris Miles (D-SD13)
Lois Kolkhorst (R-SD18)
Roland Gutierrez (D-SD19)
Juddith Zaffarini (D-SH21)
Brian Birdwell (R-SD22)
Pete Flores (R-SD24)
- Democrat Joe P. Herrera has filed for this seat. We supported Herrera in his previous run for the State House in a ruby red West Texas seat. He’s a good candidate, and I’m glad to see him back out there again.
Jose Menendez (D-SD26)
Charles Perry (R-SD28)
Kevin Sparks (R-SD31)

Both Nichols and Hancock voted against Tim Dunn during the Ken Paxton impeachment. There was a lot of talk back then that they wouldn’t be running for re-election in 2026, but time has passed, and we’ll have to wait and see if they retire. Hancock’s seat is competitive (if Tarrant County can reach 70% voter turnout).

Texas House.

After the end of every session, about a dozen Republicans usually announce their retirement or another endeavor. So, while Tony Tinderholt (R-HD94) was the first to fold this year, we should expect more announcements on the horizon.

Since we don’t know which incumbents are running again, I want to talk about the campaigns launched by new contenders. Also, this is not an all-inclusive list. It’s just based on who has filed with the TEC so far.

HD03: Keith Coleman. This is currently Cecil Bell’s (R) seat, and is entirely in Montgomery County. The only problem is that after reviewing Coleman’s website and social media, I honestly can tell you if he’s running a red or blue campaign. Currently, he appears non-partisan, which could go either way. I don’t know how to feel about that. We’ll have to check back in on this race in a few months.

HD05: Dewey Collier (R) is rechallenging Cole Hefner (R). His last two campaigns were all about how Cole Hefner cheated on his wife, but I don’t think the Republican voters of HD05 cared the first two times. We’ll see if he takes another approach this go-around.

HD08: Jeff Chavez (D), a journalist and media instructor, is challenging East Texas’ Cody Harris (R), and focusing his campaign on Harris’ sell-out of public schools with the voucher scam vote. I always have high hopes for pockets of East Texas, including Palestine, which, not too long ago, elected its first Black mayor.

HD09: Paulette Carson (R) filed to run for this seat on Monday.

HD10: This is Brian Harrison’s (R) current seat. There are rumors that Harrison is going to challenge Jake Ellzey (R-TX-06), who is my congressman. And let me tell you, if Harrison does that, I will work tirelessly to make sure he doesn’t win. Regardless, Matt Authier (R) has filed to run for this seat as a “normal/corporate Republican.” Ellis County is rapidly shifting blue, though. Hopefully, a Democrat will also throw their name in soon.

HD16: Jon Bouche (R) has filed to run for this seat, currently held by Will Metcalf (R). Considering how the GOP has painted Metcalf as a “RINO,” it leads me to believe Bouche is probably a far-right QAnon person. We’ll see how this race unfolds, but Montgomery County is shifting blue due to population growth and the tireless efforts of local activists. Not in 2026, but within the next decade, they’ll be much bluer.

HD18: It can get worse than Janis Holt (R). Alan Mallard (R), another conspiracy theorist, has filed to run in this seat.

HD31: Geri Kyle (R) has filed to run for this seat against Ryan Guillen (R). Now, some of you may remember that Guillen used to be a Democrat, then switched parties for a million-dollar payout and a safe seat in redistricting. I don’t care who beats Guillen, as long as he gets beaten. 🤷🏻‍♀️ The question now is, do Republican voters in his district like him?

HD44: Stephen Schwab (D), a veteran, economist, and professor, has launched a campaign against Alan Schoolcraft (R). I like his chances. Schoolcraft is a blubbering idiot and sold out his district in the voucher scheme. This is one race, I’ll be watching closely.

HD47: So, this was Vikki Goodwin’s seat, which she isn’t running for, since she is running for Lt. Governor. Former Travis County Democratic Chairwoman Pooja Sethi (D) is running to replace her in this safe blue district. Personally, I like Sethi a lot and think this is a good move, but we’ll have to wait and see who else throws their hat in the ring.

HD66: Sandeep Srivastava (D) is challenging Matt Shaheen (R). Srivastava is a long-time Collin County activist, and considering the direction Collin County is headed, this may be his year.

HD70: 90-year-old former Collin County GOP Chair George Flint (R) is challenging Mihaela Plesa (D). I’m predicting Plesa will win re-election in 2026, but she’ll have to keep working as hard as she has been, and I have complete faith in her to do so.

HD85: Dennis Geesaman (R), a retired Lt. Col., is challenging Stan Kitzman (R) from the right.

HD97: Stephen O’Toole (D) will be running for this SW Tarrant district against Republican-dud John McQueeny.

HD106: This is going to be one of the more interesting House races this year. This seat is currently held by Jared Patterson (R), but apparently, Patterson is hated equally by Democrats and Republicans. January 6th terrorist Larry Brock (pictured below) has launched a primary challenge against Patterson. So has Kelvin Leaphart (I), who is running entirely on the Democratic Party platform, as an Independent, and while trashing the Democratic Party.

HD108: Allison Mitchell(D) has already launched her campaign against Harlan Crow-favorite, Morgan Meyers (R). This seat is flipable, only if Democrats show up next year.

HD129: Fresh off his loss for the Clear Creek ISD School Board, Scott Bowen (R) is looking to challenge Dennis Paul (R) for his seat in the Texas House.

HD132: Sara McGee (D) launched her campaign several months ago and is already making a name for herself in this run against Mike Schofield (R). This is another seat, which I would consider flipable, if Democrats show up. At the end of the day, everything is about turnout.

HD138: Tyler Smith (D), a young, upcoming activist, is challenging Lacey Hull (R). From what I’ve already seen from Smith in Harris County, he’ll be a great candidate, and Hull isn’t safe.

That’s all for now, but remember, this list is far from complete.

It’s just a first peek at the candidates stepping up for 2026. Plenty more announcements are coming, and you can count on Lone Star Left to keep you updated as the landscape evolves.

Next up, I’ll be doing “An Early Look at the 2026 Congressional Races” because I’m already seeing Democrats launching full-scale campaigns for Congress, and it’s getting exciting fast. Look for that in the next week or so.

If you’re planning to run, or know someone who is, email me their name and campaign website, and I’ll make sure to include them in the next roundup of state and legislative races (probably in about a month).

Stay engaged, stay loud, and remember… 2026 will be our year, Democrats. Don’t lose hope, and keep showing up. ✊💙