Good and timely article. Out of state busybody pundits are fixing to have a heyday with Texas politics. And they are going to channel their biases, narratives and ignorance into those stories such that they won't even resemble the reality here.
Michelle makes some very insightful and pragmatic points about what is happening in Texas. The people are populists. The only individuals surprised by this completely foreseeable fact are pundits who are paid to be completely divorced from the practical realities of people's lives. I mean, pundits are fine as far as they go, but they should have never been allowed to become thought leaders in local politics. As a result of looking to pundits for political information, people do not realize how much power they have locally.
When you knock on a door and tell people they can elect Taylor Rehmet or other good people to help them deploy their power, it is a beautiful thing to see. Identity helps here because it is much easier to trust someone to represent you when you can identify with that person. I think the issue of identity v. struggle is unnecessarily complicated by pundits. Pundits conflate academic thought experiments with practical politics. It is much more straightforward and practical to simply say identity and economics are inextricably intertwined in our minds. Voters are looking for leaders who can identify with all their struggles, but the economic struggles are the most pressing.
James, the teacher and the preacher, states this very well. It is top v. bottom, not the arbitrary pundit-loved narratives of left v. right, etc. which matters to real people.
Michelle. This is a request if you dont mind. I understand that you are currently at capacity and i cannot imagine the amount of energy it takes to write these articles and even analyze the data but are you by any chance able to provide some insights or anything in regards to the judicial races? I also think its important for democrats to context the Texas supreme court races and other races such as the court of appeals because the judiciary are also to blame and contribute to the republicans dystopia due to the fact that there are federalist society hacks in all corners of the judiciary of Texas.
I like to analyze data as much as anyone but my first love is just talking to people real time without parameters and looking at that to strategize. I sometimes feel like a voice in the wilderness but then candidates keep doing block walks and community events. Having some unity among groups, Texas Together, and reaching out to voters in person and through media about basic issues should bring better results.
Thank you, Michelle! This is going to be fun! I'm noticing a lot of my alt media sources yesterday were really negative... killjoys, lol. Just shared on Bsky.
I noticed that too. What frustrates me is their flat, dismissive assertion that Texas is deep Red and Talarico won't win here. What I hear with that is, "Texans are idiots. Don't expect them to do the smart thing here." They ignore the fact that the mathematical trend is very much toward purple. They ignore the fact there has not been meaningful opposition to the Republican party in thirty years. And most of all, they ignore what Michelle just pointed out. That is the Texas Democratic party is supporting campaigns and mobilizing voters.This was not the case until very recently.
Being a pundit must be a great gig. They take a set narrative and then just cram it down on a situation without investigating whether the template actually fits the facts. In what other job could you get away with this? LOL
I believe I have read some mathematical analysis which points out that if people vote Democratic in these numbers in the fall, we have the votes to elect not just Talarico but all the down-ballot statewide office. That seems like a pretty big fact to ignore.
Michelle you have become my number one source for Texas politics. I’ve lived in Austin for 38 years; it’s been a nightmare for the last 20 years trying to get the depth of coverage you provide. A thank you seems inadequate to express my appreciation.
Don’t know if anyone else mentioned this, but what I noticed is that Talerico did NOT use the word “affordability “ in his campaign. He gave precise words- health care, groceries etc. I believe that is part of the messaging Dems need to use to continue to build our movement. Most people know “inflation “ is a problem, but to reach people we must break it down. Wages, rent , interest rates for loans and credit cards, etc. how much of our hard earned income is going for these things, compared to what it SHOULD be.
I grew up in poverty, most of my family don’t have a college degree. They are similar to millions of Americans: 2 adults working 40-60 hours a week per household. They have been struggling to make ends meet for 3 decades. They are intelligent but don’t have the time or interest to follow politics. When they vote, it’s based on who they believe understands them and will fight for them.
Talerico’s acceptance speech fits the messaging that they will connect with.
The Democrats to Republicans or D/R ratio for Texas at the end of early voting was about 1.15 with Democrats having about 1.5 million votes and Republicans about 1.3 million votes. I was hoping that this ratio will persist during Election Day voting. However, Republicans did much better that day and were able to reduce the D/R ratio to 1.07. Roughly 700k voters voted on Election Day for Democrats and about the same number for Republicans.
It seems Democrats still did quite well in the top 7 or so populous counties even though some Democratic votes in Dallas County didn’t get counted because of the Texas Supreme Court ruling.
So how did the Republicans manage to improve the D/R ratio on Election Day and where?
Some analysts have said in the past that Democrats need to focus on the top ten populous counties or so and not so much in the smaller rural counties. Others have said that Democrats can’t ignore the rural counties, if they want to win statewide elections. But did the rural counties play a role here in bringing up the score for Republicans on Election Day?
Don’t DC my Texas is my new mantra along with “you don’t even go here”. We will not win unless there is a ground game in every single precinct.
Good and timely article. Out of state busybody pundits are fixing to have a heyday with Texas politics. And they are going to channel their biases, narratives and ignorance into those stories such that they won't even resemble the reality here.
Michelle makes some very insightful and pragmatic points about what is happening in Texas. The people are populists. The only individuals surprised by this completely foreseeable fact are pundits who are paid to be completely divorced from the practical realities of people's lives. I mean, pundits are fine as far as they go, but they should have never been allowed to become thought leaders in local politics. As a result of looking to pundits for political information, people do not realize how much power they have locally.
When you knock on a door and tell people they can elect Taylor Rehmet or other good people to help them deploy their power, it is a beautiful thing to see. Identity helps here because it is much easier to trust someone to represent you when you can identify with that person. I think the issue of identity v. struggle is unnecessarily complicated by pundits. Pundits conflate academic thought experiments with practical politics. It is much more straightforward and practical to simply say identity and economics are inextricably intertwined in our minds. Voters are looking for leaders who can identify with all their struggles, but the economic struggles are the most pressing.
James, the teacher and the preacher, states this very well. It is top v. bottom, not the arbitrary pundit-loved narratives of left v. right, etc. which matters to real people.
Michelle. This is a request if you dont mind. I understand that you are currently at capacity and i cannot imagine the amount of energy it takes to write these articles and even analyze the data but are you by any chance able to provide some insights or anything in regards to the judicial races? I also think its important for democrats to context the Texas supreme court races and other races such as the court of appeals because the judiciary are also to blame and contribute to the republicans dystopia due to the fact that there are federalist society hacks in all corners of the judiciary of Texas.
I like to analyze data as much as anyone but my first love is just talking to people real time without parameters and looking at that to strategize. I sometimes feel like a voice in the wilderness but then candidates keep doing block walks and community events. Having some unity among groups, Texas Together, and reaching out to voters in person and through media about basic issues should bring better results.
We are in this together.
Thank you, Michelle! This is going to be fun! I'm noticing a lot of my alt media sources yesterday were really negative... killjoys, lol. Just shared on Bsky.
I noticed that too. What frustrates me is their flat, dismissive assertion that Texas is deep Red and Talarico won't win here. What I hear with that is, "Texans are idiots. Don't expect them to do the smart thing here." They ignore the fact that the mathematical trend is very much toward purple. They ignore the fact there has not been meaningful opposition to the Republican party in thirty years. And most of all, they ignore what Michelle just pointed out. That is the Texas Democratic party is supporting campaigns and mobilizing voters.This was not the case until very recently.
Being a pundit must be a great gig. They take a set narrative and then just cram it down on a situation without investigating whether the template actually fits the facts. In what other job could you get away with this? LOL
I believe I have read some mathematical analysis which points out that if people vote Democratic in these numbers in the fall, we have the votes to elect not just Talarico but all the down-ballot statewide office. That seems like a pretty big fact to ignore.
Michelle you have become my number one source for Texas politics. I’ve lived in Austin for 38 years; it’s been a nightmare for the last 20 years trying to get the depth of coverage you provide. A thank you seems inadequate to express my appreciation.
Don’t know if anyone else mentioned this, but what I noticed is that Talerico did NOT use the word “affordability “ in his campaign. He gave precise words- health care, groceries etc. I believe that is part of the messaging Dems need to use to continue to build our movement. Most people know “inflation “ is a problem, but to reach people we must break it down. Wages, rent , interest rates for loans and credit cards, etc. how much of our hard earned income is going for these things, compared to what it SHOULD be.
I grew up in poverty, most of my family don’t have a college degree. They are similar to millions of Americans: 2 adults working 40-60 hours a week per household. They have been struggling to make ends meet for 3 decades. They are intelligent but don’t have the time or interest to follow politics. When they vote, it’s based on who they believe understands them and will fight for them.
Talerico’s acceptance speech fits the messaging that they will connect with.
I saw this video this morning. I thought he had a solid assessment of the race after he finished his plea to Crockett voters.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVe3GasjL3z/?igsh=OWM3cmJ5MGphamEx
Thanks for a very informative article.
The Democrats to Republicans or D/R ratio for Texas at the end of early voting was about 1.15 with Democrats having about 1.5 million votes and Republicans about 1.3 million votes. I was hoping that this ratio will persist during Election Day voting. However, Republicans did much better that day and were able to reduce the D/R ratio to 1.07. Roughly 700k voters voted on Election Day for Democrats and about the same number for Republicans.
It seems Democrats still did quite well in the top 7 or so populous counties even though some Democratic votes in Dallas County didn’t get counted because of the Texas Supreme Court ruling.
So how did the Republicans manage to improve the D/R ratio on Election Day and where?
Some analysts have said in the past that Democrats need to focus on the top ten populous counties or so and not so much in the smaller rural counties. Others have said that Democrats can’t ignore the rural counties, if they want to win statewide elections. But did the rural counties play a role here in bringing up the score for Republicans on Election Day?