Also the South Asian community is pissed now and those college kids are majority born here, are citizens and can vote 💙. I know every wants that Senate seat and that would be huge. I really want Gina to win because then she can get rid of all the shitty chancellors and boards Abbott appointed onto all of the State Universities. I’ve got 2 kids at Tech with Brandon Creighton and his hatred for LGBTQ and minority kids. I hate that fuckhead. Other kid is at A&M.
You write a great article! I always appreciate your insights on the various races. I’m sure hoping the predicted wave pushes Texas blue.
I’m an OLD voter since I remember Ann Richards as being rather current. She did such a good job I changed from Republican to Democrat and haven’t gone back.
Such a hopeful article! I pray that it happens! Texas Turns Blue! Then in 2028; we get a Democratic Party President and more down ballot Candidates too.
This article is hopeful. We know not to hold our breaths, but... turnout will favor democrats and not republicans, particularly in the Talarico race. I suspect republicans are tired enough of Greg Abbott to not race to vote.
Gina is doing the hard campaign work one person, one handshake, one smile at a time. Gina appears to be on a mission which I am certain a decade dealing with the corrupt Abbott at the legislature has lit a fire within Gina. When you meet Gina on the campaign trail her passion fills the room. Gina has a mission to defeat Abbott. I have observed Gina for a long time and this is personal for her for two reasons, as I see it, Greg Abbott deliberately made life in Texas harder for all people with the notable exception of his wealthy donors for whom he betrays every trust Texas placed in him: (data centers, vouchers, property taxes, affordability, education policy, immigration policy, environmental degradation, local control,... the list could go on for miles).
Gina sees this better than anybody, but also, and I am generally not churchy, but Gina's passion and drive reflects two sacred archetypes, those of Dorcas and Esther. Dorcas struggled to systematically improve the lives of vulnerable and marginalized people (Greg Abbott is Caiaphas in this metaphor), but Gina also reflects the calculation, patience, and radical selflessness of Esther who devised and executed a precise strategy to protect her people from annihilation. Gina appears to be on a mission. She has not stopped since she announced, and Gina is blessed...
Thanks for a very informative and encouraging article.
Question that baffles me: if Hispanics and Independents have swung away from Trump and Republicans by that wide a margin, why is it not reflected in the polls for US Senate and Texas Governor? Thoughts?
Good question. Those numbers are baked into the polls. They’re just diluted because independents and Hispanic men aren’t the whole electorate. If they swing 36 points and literally nobody else moves, that alone works out to something like a 9-to-12-point statewide shift once you weight it by their actual share of the electorate. That’s why they talk about weights under methodology.
So, like, Hispanic men specifically are a smaller slice, maybe 7-8% of the electorate, so even a 51-point approval collapse among that group only moves the statewide topline a few points on its own. I hope that made sense.
Based on the information below from Google AI, shouldn’t the percentage of Hispanic men in Texas be around twenty percent and not just seven or 8 percent considering that Hispanics make up forty percent of voters?
As per Google:
“White eligible voters make up about 46% of the electorate in Texas, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Racial Breakdown of the Voting-Age Population and Electorate
• White (non-Hispanic): Accounts for roughly 46% to 50% of eligible or voting-age citizens in the state.
• Hispanic / Latino: Comprises around 40% of the state's citizen voting-age population.
• Black / African American (non-Hispanic): Represents approximately 12% of recent statewide voter turnout and eligible blocs.
• Asian American and other groups: Make up a smaller collective percentage, with Asian and Pacific Islander voters representing a growing share of the electorate.”
Fair catch, AI still gets it wrong. Among eligible voters, Pew puts it at about 32%, and a UCLA brief out this month says 31.7%. (The Google numbers also add up to more than 100% once you count Asian voters, which is a tell.)
Then you have to go from eligible to people who actually vote. Hispanic turnout in Texas runs below that eligible share, and Latino men vote at lower rates than Latinas. So realistically, maybe Hispanic men are something like 11–13% of the people who actually cast ballots. Texas voter turnout sucks.
The funny thing is, a bigger slice swinging hard should move the topline more, not less. Part of why the Senate and governor polls look stickier is that pollsters weight to past turnout, and a lot of soured voters show up as "undecided" or "might stay home" rather than flipping outright.
Approval collapsing and vote choice moving are two different things, and the gap between them is where this race gets decided.
What we DON’T need is Raskin or other Dem getting to far over their skis! This talking about abolishing the Electoral College! The Texans who are considering voting Dem this once know that is the real death knell of the Republican Party and they aren’t convinced that is a good thing!
I’m trying not to let the polling get my hopes up too high, but your analysis sure sounds good too! Texans are tired of this BS and I hope it finally pushes all those non voters to the polls!
Also the South Asian community is pissed now and those college kids are majority born here, are citizens and can vote 💙. I know every wants that Senate seat and that would be huge. I really want Gina to win because then she can get rid of all the shitty chancellors and boards Abbott appointed onto all of the State Universities. I’ve got 2 kids at Tech with Brandon Creighton and his hatred for LGBTQ and minority kids. I hate that fuckhead. Other kid is at A&M.
You write a great article! I always appreciate your insights on the various races. I’m sure hoping the predicted wave pushes Texas blue.
I’m an OLD voter since I remember Ann Richards as being rather current. She did such a good job I changed from Republican to Democrat and haven’t gone back.
Such a hopeful article! I pray that it happens! Texas Turns Blue! Then in 2028; we get a Democratic Party President and more down ballot Candidates too.
Thank you, Michelle!!! Just shared on bsky. Let's GO!!!
This article is hopeful. We know not to hold our breaths, but... turnout will favor democrats and not republicans, particularly in the Talarico race. I suspect republicans are tired enough of Greg Abbott to not race to vote.
Gina is doing the hard campaign work one person, one handshake, one smile at a time. Gina appears to be on a mission which I am certain a decade dealing with the corrupt Abbott at the legislature has lit a fire within Gina. When you meet Gina on the campaign trail her passion fills the room. Gina has a mission to defeat Abbott. I have observed Gina for a long time and this is personal for her for two reasons, as I see it, Greg Abbott deliberately made life in Texas harder for all people with the notable exception of his wealthy donors for whom he betrays every trust Texas placed in him: (data centers, vouchers, property taxes, affordability, education policy, immigration policy, environmental degradation, local control,... the list could go on for miles).
Gina sees this better than anybody, but also, and I am generally not churchy, but Gina's passion and drive reflects two sacred archetypes, those of Dorcas and Esther. Dorcas struggled to systematically improve the lives of vulnerable and marginalized people (Greg Abbott is Caiaphas in this metaphor), but Gina also reflects the calculation, patience, and radical selflessness of Esther who devised and executed a precise strategy to protect her people from annihilation. Gina appears to be on a mission. She has not stopped since she announced, and Gina is blessed...
Let’s go!!! If we win CD5 I will be so excited!
Thanks for a very informative and encouraging article.
Question that baffles me: if Hispanics and Independents have swung away from Trump and Republicans by that wide a margin, why is it not reflected in the polls for US Senate and Texas Governor? Thoughts?
Good question. Those numbers are baked into the polls. They’re just diluted because independents and Hispanic men aren’t the whole electorate. If they swing 36 points and literally nobody else moves, that alone works out to something like a 9-to-12-point statewide shift once you weight it by their actual share of the electorate. That’s why they talk about weights under methodology.
So, like, Hispanic men specifically are a smaller slice, maybe 7-8% of the electorate, so even a 51-point approval collapse among that group only moves the statewide topline a few points on its own. I hope that made sense.
Based on the information below from Google AI, shouldn’t the percentage of Hispanic men in Texas be around twenty percent and not just seven or 8 percent considering that Hispanics make up forty percent of voters?
As per Google:
“White eligible voters make up about 46% of the electorate in Texas, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
Racial Breakdown of the Voting-Age Population and Electorate
• White (non-Hispanic): Accounts for roughly 46% to 50% of eligible or voting-age citizens in the state.
• Hispanic / Latino: Comprises around 40% of the state's citizen voting-age population.
• Black / African American (non-Hispanic): Represents approximately 12% of recent statewide voter turnout and eligible blocs.
• Asian American and other groups: Make up a smaller collective percentage, with Asian and Pacific Islander voters representing a growing share of the electorate.”
https://www.google.com/search?q=what+is+the+racial+percentages+of+voters+in+texas&rlz=1CDGOYI_enUS1021US1102&oq=what+is+the+racial+percentages+of+voters+in+texas&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORigATIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQABjvBTIHCAYQABjvBTIHCAcQABjvBdIBCTM1MDg1ajBqN6gCFLACAeIDBBgBIF_xBTN45YwK9-m-&hl=en-US&sourceid=chrome-mobile&source=chrome.ob&ie=UTF-8#lfId=ChxjMe
Fair catch, AI still gets it wrong. Among eligible voters, Pew puts it at about 32%, and a UCLA brief out this month says 31.7%. (The Google numbers also add up to more than 100% once you count Asian voters, which is a tell.)
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/01/10/key-facts-about-hispanic-eligible-voters-in-2024/
https://latino.ucla.edu/press/texas-latino-electorate-has-more-than-doubled-since-2000/
Then you have to go from eligible to people who actually vote. Hispanic turnout in Texas runs below that eligible share, and Latino men vote at lower rates than Latinas. So realistically, maybe Hispanic men are something like 11–13% of the people who actually cast ballots. Texas voter turnout sucks.
The funny thing is, a bigger slice swinging hard should move the topline more, not less. Part of why the Senate and governor polls look stickier is that pollsters weight to past turnout, and a lot of soured voters show up as "undecided" or "might stay home" rather than flipping outright.
Approval collapsing and vote choice moving are two different things, and the gap between them is where this race gets decided.
What we DON’T need is Raskin or other Dem getting to far over their skis! This talking about abolishing the Electoral College! The Texans who are considering voting Dem this once know that is the real death knell of the Republican Party and they aren’t convinced that is a good thing!
It’s part of the TDP platform. 🤷🏻♀️
I’m trying not to let the polling get my hopes up too high, but your analysis sure sounds good too! Texans are tired of this BS and I hope it finally pushes all those non voters to the polls!
Thank you for this careful analysis. I sure as hell hope you're right.