Bubbles, Bullsh*t, And A Whole Lot Of Fear
Texas Republicans aren’t as comfortable as they pretend to be.
Yesterday, the Texas Public Policy’s annual forum kicked off. Honestly, you have to be a huge political nerd to watch this stuff, because not only is it hours of “boring” talks about policy, it’s coming from the far-right and far-right politicians, like ole’ Danny. But don’t worry, I watched it so you didn’t have to. Dan Patrick gave the keynote. And the one clear thing is he really believes he’s going to lose Texas.
Check it out (and bubbles):
Mr. Maryland gave one delicious speech (if you’re on the left), because if you’re on the right, you’re probably thinking, “wtf?”
Texas Republicans, standing at the top of a thirty-year Republican stronghold, should be confident, right? Texas is booming (lol), Conservatives are in power, and they got all their policy wishes. But when you listen to Lt. Governor Patrick’s speech, he didn’t sound very confident.
His speech was entertaining. One of the best ones yet. He came out on stage with props. Bubbles. He talked about all of the “good bubbles.” (Paraphrasing):
Republicans passed laws to allow guns to be used to murder children in school.
How he changed the rules for Republicans to strongarm Democrats.
Their tax funnel to the wealthy under the guise of “school choice.”
Letting women die of sepsis and ectopic pregnancies in emergency rooms.
He bragged about codifying bigotry against transgender individuals into law.
“Good” is subjective. Those were Dan Patrick’s “good bubbles.” But he was building toward something else. Popping the bubbles! All good bubbles must be popped.
When he finally said it, it was like music. Like birds tweeting from up above. He said:
“There is a path for Democrats to win.”
Damn straight, there is. Of course, there are a few people in Texas who will tell you THIS is the year, but Lone Star Left has been saying that 2026 will finally be the year we turn blue. And ole’ Danny must be an avid reader, because he seems to agree.
He warned the crowd of wealthy, plugged-in, far-right folks that everything they built, all of their “good bubbles,” was in danger of being popped by those pesky Dems.
And by far, that was the best part of the speech. Mr. Maryland, shaking in his $500 cowboy boots, talked about Taylor Rehmet’s win, talked about a Talarico future, how Democrats are mad, and how we’re going to take the Texas House in November, maybe even the Senate, and by golly, even Lt. Dan isn’t safe.
And we’re going to do all of that.
That was the best part of his speech, but there was so much more.
Republicans’ favorite talking points: property taxes.
Every year since Dan Patrick became Lieutenant Governor, and certainly since Greg Abbott became Governor, property taxes in Texas have gone up. Did you know that Texas has the 7th highest property tax rate in America?
Yes, absolutely. Texas, being a “low tax” state, only applies to billionaires and corporations.
Before the GOP spies reading this get their panties all twisted up about “tax burden,” Texas also has the ninth-highest tax burden in America. That’s all the taxes overall, and what the actual tax burden is on working people. Republicans like to say that “Texas has a low tax burden,” when you bring up the astronomical property tax rates. But we don’t. We have high property taxes and a high tax burden.
Patrick went on about how he ran for Lt. Governor in 2017 with the campaign promise to lower taxes, and the only reason they’ve gone up every single year he’s been in office is, “everyone else’s fault.”
He said flat out, “He cannot eliminate all property taxes.” Not without blowing up the entire tax structure.
Instead of eliminating property taxes, he proposes raising the homestead exemption high enough that some homeowners wouldn’t pay school property taxes on a portion of their home value.
That’s his plan.
It’s all bullshit. Even Dan Patrick’s own plan is only about reducing school taxes on homesteads, not ending property taxes altogether. Texans would still pay other local property taxes, and the state would still be shoveling billions into a tax system every biennial that isn’t actually fixed.
Plus, it doesn’t stop appraisal growth, and it sure as hell doesn’t solve affordability.
The real message.
Republicans are afraid. Dan Patrick is afraid. His speech didn’t just cover how Democrats were going to whoop their butts in November, he also talked about why. He called out the John Cornyn vs Ken Paxton dynamic directly, warning that if even 10–15% of voters on either side stay home, Republicans could lose the seat.
He said that in all his years, it was the first election in which the argument wasn’t about policy but about personalities. If you haven’t seen the Cornyn vs. Paxton commercial, they are glorious.
Cornyn: “Paxton is a crook who cheats on his wife.”
Paxton: “Cornyn has never done anything in all his years in office.”
Texas Republicans are fragile. The things that Patrick said, you don’t say if you’re feeling secure in your position. And while he never addressed it, the demographic change, suburban realignment, and the math is tightening around Republicans in Texas.
And that shift has been building for years.
A party that only wins if everyone falls in line is a party that knows it can’t afford slippage. He ended his message with “unity” for the right. All the boomers and Nazis must hug, make up, and vote for the other (R) after the runoff is over.
The Lt. Governor framed every conservative win as a “success story” for “their side.” But for too many Texans, those same policies are producing backlash.
We have the highest maternal mortality in the developed world.
We’re going to spend another $10 billion on their voucher program in the next five years.
Our state keeps setting records for hate crimes against LGBTQ+ individuals.
But he doesn’t say those things in his “good bubbles.”
For years, the Republican message has been about control.
But Dan Patrick warned his own side about turnout. He lectured his party about unity.
And he stood in a room full of allies, talking about how they could lose.
They can feel the pressure.
They can see the numbers tightening.
And they’re trying to hold it together before anyone else fully realizes it.
But they’re way too late for that. 😁
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Michelle, I think you are underestimating R strength. I attended the SBOE meeting on Tuesday. For days, TPPF had been posting videos telling people that the Islamic terrorists are going to show up at this meeting and ram sharia law down our throats. All their propaganda worked. The boomer battalion showed up in force holding their TPPF talking points for public testimony, holding hands and praying. Even the Patriot Academy students showed up.
Given all that, given all the big "no kings" rallies, we still only posted 25% turnout for the primary races, total, statewide. We can only win if the 18-40 show up and so far, they aren't, but the boomers are, in force. The Texas Democratic party needs to start talking to this age group, posting to this age group, educating them on what is at stake, giving them the truth, because, and I think you know this, the far right is talking to them right now, especially the males.
Great article! I have been saying since around 2000, when Governor Abbott was using critical race theory to scare the white people into voting Republican. I would tell people the the Republicans have had control of public education since 1995; why did they put that curriculum in? They didn’t and. It’s not being taught in public schools because the Texas Government tells teachers what to teach. Just like in the article the GOP said they would lower taxes! Only for the rich! Praying that this article gets into a lot of Texans hands. Too many do not realize that our problems in Texas are caused by the greedy. The false christians using their god against the people. 🤬