Day 6 Update On The Election: Voting, Violence, And Climate Chaos
A look at voter turnout as the stakes reach new heights.
The world is on fire right now, both literally and figuratively. As we inch closer to the election, the more insane the world seems to be. Today, the orange one is holding his rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. This is the second “America First” Rally held at Madison Square Garden.
The first one happened in 1939.
Isn’t it a little ironic that this Madison Square Garden Rally comes on the heels of the Atlantic story, in which Mango Mussolini said he “wanted generals like Hitler.”
Here is how the Orange One’s rally opened:
Yeah. Fuck these people. Clips are circulating on social media now. I won’t give any more of them air, but they are very openly encouraging violence, racism, and hatred of the “other.”
Today,
published excerpts from a 1945 War Department (now the Department of Defense) pamphlet about fascism. It sounds disturbingly familiar. It’s the exact rhetoric we hear from Donald Trump.We should all be prepared. Whether Republicans win or lose this election, right-wing violence will likely follow.
Meanwhile, Tim Walz plays Crazy Taxi on Sega Dreamcast with AOC on Twitch.
And from the front page of the New York Times this morning:
The outcome of this election promises us two very different versions of America. One where humanity flourishes and progresses and the other where no one will be safe.
As stressed out as voters are, there’s one group of people that have been in full-blown panic mode this week—and that’s climate scientists.
More than 40 of the world’s leading ocean and climate scientists have signed an open letter warning that the network of Atlantic Ocean currents keeping the Earth’s climate stable could be on the brink of collapse sooner and with a more significant impact than previously estimated. This is something we’re likely to see within 25 years.
This will bring rapid and catastrophic changes to our planet. If you aren’t familiar with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), its collapse would have severe global climate repercussions—including in every part of Texas.
Everyone has to vote.
In Texas, Saturday wrapped up Day 6 of early voting. So, let’s discuss where we are.
Day 6.
The total numbers for Texas after Day 6 of early voting:
5,128,024 Texans have voted early.
Or, 27.53% of registered voters.
Dallas and Harris County are catching up to where they were in 2020. Harris County finally hit a 25% turnout with another six days of early voting on the clock.
Dallas is still lagging, but Dallas County has decided to extend early voting hours for next week. That should make a difference.
Even though it was Saturday, Tarrant County still had a higher turnout than Dallas. After Day 7’s update, I hope Tarrant will hit a 30% turnout. In 2020, their total voter turnout was 68.84%, and Biden won by exactly +0.3 points. If Tarrant can make it to a total 70% turnout this year, that would secure Democratic wins.
Many data people, based on historical trends, are predicting that turnout numbers will uptick next week. We’ll have to wait and see.
Bexar County had another stellar turnout day on Day 6, with another 47K making it to the polls.
I expect Bexar County’s turnout rate to be 25% after today (Sunday). Historically, Bexar County typically has more voters during the second week of early voting.
Collin and Denton Counties continue to see record numbers.
During the last presidential election, Collin County had one of the highest voter turnouts in the state. If Denton County keeps the same pace, it may beat Collin County’s turnout this year.
Here are some of the other blue and trending blue counties we’ve been keeping an eye on.
I couldn’t tell you why El Paso County is struggling with early voter turnout so far, but hopefully, activists are working hard to boost those numbers in week two.
Fort Bend, Williamson, and Brazoria counties have all reached 30% turnout, and Williamson and Brazoria will likely exceed 35% in the next update.
I continue to hear great things about Brazoria County and the Democrats working extra hard there. Higher turnout always favors Democrats, so maybe their high voter turnout is a signal that they’ll kick ass and take names on election night.
If Williamson County sees 35% turnout during the first week of early voting and 35% during the second week, it will open the polls on Election Day with 70% of voters already casting a ballot. This is looking good for HD52 Democratic candidate Jennie Birkholz, who we’re all hoping will flip that seat.
The red counties we discussed yesterday are still seeing higher turnout than some of our big, blue urban counties.
We’ve also historically seen turnout numbers in red counties drop in the second week of early voting. There are six early voting days left.
Today, I pulled the turnout numbers for South Texas.
During the 2020 election, most South Texas and border counties barely reached a 50% turnout rate. We shouldn’t be surprised when we see a lower turnout here than across the state. But how low? Hopefully, they’ll break their 2020 numbers.
There are three crucial seats in South Texas: Congressional District 15 with Michelle Vallejo, Texas Senate District 27 with Morgan Lamantia, and Texas House District 37 with Jonathan Gracia. Both sides of the aisle are pouring money into these districts, and all three races are competitive.
Overall, urban areas were strong in the first week, but rural areas were even stronger, so the urban areas needed to catch up by having a high turnout on Sunday.
Chris Tackett’s Day 6 analysis.
Chris Tackett put out an analysis of Day 6 today, and it’s well worth the read:
He breaks all counties into different tiers: blue counties, red counties, trending blue, trending red, etc. According to his methodology, the red areas are turning out in higher numbers than the blue areas, which could signal disaster if the urban, blue counties don’t get their butt in gear.
However, I will interject that if we see a higher urban turnout and a lower rural turnout next week, as some are predicting, the opportunity to flip the state is still there. At the very least, hand Colin Allred a win.
While it would be grand to give Kamala Harris 40 electoral college votes, it’ll only happen if the urban counties increase their turnout next week.
This election is more than a choice between two candidates—it’s a battle over the direction of our country and the planet.
The stakes couldn’t be higher as we face the urgency of climate collapse, rising authoritarianism, and the real threat of violence from those who want to turn back the clock.
While turnout looks promising in key areas, particularly in some of Texas’ urban and trending-blue counties, it’s clear that we need every voice at the polls to counteract the strong turnout in red regions. Voting isn’t just a right; it’s our power to demand a future where humanity can flourish. Now is the time to show up, organize, and vote like our lives depend on it—because they do.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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I have to continually tell myself to take a deep breath. I haven't had this much anxiety for any election. One day I believe Dems will win. The next day I believe the Repubs will win. November 5th--hubby and I will celebrate our 36th anniversary as the Dems win, or I will be crying in despair.
After the retro-Nazi Bundt meeting at MSG and the commentator who called Puerton Rico a floating pile of garbage, i wonder how many Florida Rican's wish they could have their early vote back.