Early Turnout Update: Optimism Against All Odds
With 11 days to go, in-person voting surges while speculation swirls around the drop in mail-in ballots.
11 days to go.
According to the Houston Chronicle, more than 1 million people signed up to attend the Kamala Harris rally in Houston today. The rally is at Shell Energy Stadium, which has a capacity of 22,000. The lines I’ve seen on social media outside the stadium are probably more than 20,000 people. (The Houston Chronicle also endorsed Kamala Harris today.)
According to Houston insiders, the Harris campaign tried to secure Minute Made Stadium in Houston, which has a capacity of 41,000, but it was already booked.
Here is a small clip from some of the lines outside the rally.
Then, it goes out of the parking lot and around the block.
Another angel.
Meanwhile, the orange one held a rally in Austin today with an itty-bitty, tiny-weenie crowd of about 200 people. ⬇️
If crowd sizes won elections, it would be over for Don the Con.
Doomerism and levity.
If you’ve read any of my previous election updates this week, you know I’ve been pretty optimistic about voter turnout in Texas. Our in-person turnout has been higher than in 2020, but the mail-in votes are much lower. Many political data people in Texas are looking at where we are, and some are nowhere near as optimistic as me.
We won’t know where we stand until every vote is counted on election day. As Texas Democrats, election time can be triggering, and it can bring on waves of emotions that scarred us from living under a fascist state government, from getting our hopes up and being let down, and from a fear of what Republicans will do next if they win again.
All of those feelings are real and justified, and if you are feeling the waves of anxiety as we creep closer to the election, know millions of Texas Democrats are right there with you.
Whether we win or lose on election day, I will never stop fighting for a bluer Texas. Will you?
We know what the data says. We know that the needle moves left with each election. Eventually, Texas will be blue—maybe this year, maybe in a few years. We know that Republicans have been losing ground in Texas for decades. And until the last vote is counted on election day, we can only speculate about the results. Until we know, keep calm and chive on.
What are they saying?
Chris and Mindy Tackett are friends of mine. They live in the same county as me and have been doing a lot of hard work bringing attention to Christian Nationalism.
is a data guy. In his latest analysis, he points to the in-person numbers being higher than in 2020 but the mail-in numbers being way lower.He’s right about that. Another thing he was right about is comparing the early voting numbers in 2020 to 2024, which is like comparing apples and oranges. In 2020, we were in the throws of the worst pandemic in 100 years. And in 2020 we had 18 days of early voting, while in 2024, we only had 12.
So, we are looking at two different animals.
This is from Chris today on his Twitter page:
He classifies the “Tier 1” counties as the counties that are blue and getting bluer. Looking at the combined in-person and mail-in voting through Day 4 of early voting in 2024, compared to 2020, shows counties like Dallas and Harris way down, while Bexar is close to breaking even, despite the cheers of record turnout.
So, I took Bexar County to use as an example (and used round numbers) to show you what that looks like:
As you can see, the in-person turnout in Bexar County is much higher than in 2020, but the mail-in votes are much lower.
What does it all mean? According to Chris, at the end of Day 4 in 2024, Bexar County’s total vote count was 813 votes less than it was on Day 4 in 2020.
But then again, Covid-19 killed 100,000 Texans since 2020. Including COVID-19, accidents, and disease, 1.2 million Texans have died since the last election, but our state has grown by 1.27 more million people. And since the last election, white Texans have become a minority.
Maybe the conditions of early voting are vastly different than in 2020, and perhaps the electorate has shifted some, too.
All we can do right now is speculate. Texas has been a historically low voter-turnout state, but we’re seeing something different right now.
Joel Montfort with Montfort Consulting seems to share my optimism.
In-person voting all around Texas is up at record levels. Mail-in voting is down. The Texas Legislature changed the rules about mail-in voting in 2020. Plus, in the 2022 primaries, we saw a significant effort from Republicans to throw out Democrat’s mail-in votes. And we’re no longer in a pandemic.
Republican Ryan Data isn’t even doing a day-by-day comparison. Instead, he’s squishing some days together to have a 12-by-12 comparison.
Kamala Harris is having a campaign rally in Houston, and polling in Texas shows Democrats are competitive.
I have a lot of optimism about this election in Texas. Whether you share that optimism or not, there’s no denying that there are millions of Texas Democrats who want and believe in a better, bluer state. So, what do the numbers look like after the end of Day 4:
A total of 3,603,618 votes have been cast.
19.35% of registered voters have voted.
11 days until November 5 (Election Day)
Seven days left of early voting.
Harris County’s in-person votes through Day 4 of 2024 is 457,634, higher than the in-person votes in 2020, but the mail-in ballots are down. If Harris County Democrats want to reach their total Democratic turnout of 1.1 million, we should expect their total voter turnout when polls close on November 5 to be 1.8+ million (or more). There’s plenty of time, and we should expect to see a surge this weekend and next week following the Kamala Harris rally.
Tarrant County is still outpacing Dallas County with voter turnout:
Dallas County:
Monday: 56K
Tuesday: 56K
Wednesday: 54K
Thursday: 40K
Tarrant County:
Monday: 58K
Tuesday: 57K
Wednesday: 55K
Thursday: 54K
While the total number of ballots cast (in-person and mail-in) in Dallas County is lower than in 2020, the total number of ballots cast in Tarrant County is higher.
Total turnout so far:
Dallas County: 224,412 (15.29%)
Tarrant County: 226,505 (18.56%)
The polls are open this weekend until 7 pm in Dallas and Tarrant next week, so we should expect these numbers to jump or surge.
As of Day 4, 2024, Collin County and Denton County are outpacing their Day 4 numbers from 2020. I believe Collin County will flip this year, but I’m not counting Denton County out, as they seem to be having the biggest turnout numbers in North Texas.
Collin County total turnout:
2024: 166,905 (22.29%)
2020: 162,927
Denton County total turnout:
2024: 172,792 (26.12%)
2020: 152,821
Fort Bend County is also seeing a record voting total.
Fort Bend County’s total turnout in 2020 was 92,236; in 2024, that number will be 119,756. Fort Bend County is a blue county that is only getting bluer, and this gives us some clues into how suburban Democrats will turn out.
Bell County is another county we’re keeping a close eye on. Their total number exceeds any previous election. Two Texas House seats in Bell County are up for flip. Many consider Bell County a blue county with low voter turnout. Maybe this will be the year they finally change that.
Here are the turnout numbers from Day 4 in the top 20 Texas Counties from the Secretary of State.
Day 5 numbers are already starting to come out (I’ll have a full update tomorrow), but so far, it’s looking like Day 5 may be our biggest day yet.
We got this, Texas.
I voted today, and my husband and two of our adult children will vote tomorrow. There’s still plenty of time to cast your ballot, and we expect a big surge this weekend. We don’t know how things will look on election night. So, until we do, the glass is half-full, and doom and gloom will not be a thing in October. 😁
In the final stretch of this election, the energy across Texas is as big as our beloved state itself. With just 11 days to go, the record-breaking turnout in several key counties and the excitement from the Kamala Harris rally show that Texans are fired up and ready for change. While the uncertainty remains, and we can only speculate about the final results, there’s no denying the powerful momentum we’ve built.
Check it out. Willie Nelson, at a Kamala Harris rally in Texas.
As the days pass and more voters make their voices heard, let’s keep our eyes on the prize: a Texas that reflects our values and the diverse communities that call it home. This election is about more than just numbers—it’s about the hope, resilience, and determination of millions of Texans who believe in a better future.
So, as we head into the final week of early voting, remember that every vote counts, every voice matters, and together, we can make history. Keep the faith, stay strong, and let’s turn Texas blue!
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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'If crowd sizes won elections, it would be over for Don the Con'
^^^^ if only......
Another great recap. Yay from Tennessee.
Wow.....1 million wanted to attend Harris rally. Awesome!