Goodbye Henry Cuellar?
Three challengers, thirteen days, and one embattled congressman watching the clock tick down.
Thirteen days is all that’s left before the filing deadline slams shut in Texas, and for the first time in a long time, Congressman Henry Cuellar isn’t the only name on the Democratic side of the ballot in TX28. Although thirteen days is plenty of time left for Cuellar to file, with a bloody primary emerging, the question is now, will he?
Two Democrats, Andrew Vantine and Ricardo Villarreal, have already filed with the Secretary of State (SOS). A third, Adriel Ventura Lopez, hasn’t hit the SOS website yet, but he’s out there, website live, campaigning along.
And then there’s Cuellar himself. The eternal problem child of the Texas Democratic Party. For years, he’s been the biggest thorn in our side. This man somehow manages to caucus with Democrats while voting like he’s auditioning for a Cabinet position in a Republican administration. Anti-abortion votes. Helping kill gun reforms. Siding with Big Oil every time the industry snaps its fingers. Backing border militarization. Undercutting labor. And constantly throwing progressives under the bus. If there’s a pressure point in the Democratic coalition, Cuellar has pushed it time and time again.
He insists he’s running again. He wants everyone to believe he’s steady and unbothered. But he still hasn’t filed. And that FBI indictment that’s been floating over his head hasn’t gone anywhere. Voters notice things like that. Challengers definitely do.
So the question now isn’t whether Cuellar can run. It’s whether 2026 is finally the year someone in his own party takes him out.
Why Cuellar’s weakness is real this time.
First, the FBI indictment. Cuellar pretends it’s business as usual, but campaigns live and die by momentum and money. Donors hate uncertainty. Consultants hate uncertainty. Voters especially hate seeing their Congressman’s name and “federal investigation” in the same sentence. Even if he survives, the smell remains.
Second, he still hasn’t filed. For a man obsessed with projecting strength, that silence is deafening. Every day that passes without paperwork is a day his challengers grow more legitimate.
Third, the Democratic base is no longer what it used to be. The left has tolerated Cuellar’s anti-abortion votes, his border militarization stunts, his “good soldier for Big Oil” routine, and his constant undermining of party priorities, but barely. Outside his district, the Congressman’s approval is basically subterranean.
And finally, for the first time in years, there’s a real bench forming. Multiple candidates. Real infrastructure.
Cuellar’s still connected. He’s still dangerous. But he’s also vulnerable.
2026 might actually be different.
What do we know about the candidates so far?
Don’t worry, we’re going to talk a lot about this race, and we’re going to find out about all of them. With it being so early and them just jumping into the race this week, we still have a lot to learn.
Ricardo Villarreal
Ricardo Villarreal isn’t new to this game. He ran in 2022 in TX-21, losing the Democratic runoff to Claudia Zapata, and he’s back now, aiming straight at TX-28.
On paper, he’s the “serious grown-up” candidate. A physician, Army veteran, public-policy nerd, and healthcare guy who talks about systems. His campaign site and ActBlue pitch him as a lifelong Texan, born and raised in Laredo, and “not a politician” but a doctor and advocate who wants to “move our community forward.”
The big question is, can he raise real money this time, and does he actually run against Cuellar’s corruption and voting record?
Andrew Vantine
Andrew Vantine is a Mission-based businessman, president of a local material-handling company, with deep Valley roots and a small-business owner profile.
If he leans Cuellar-adjacent on economic branding but without the federal-indictment baggage and anti-choice track record, he can become the guy who claims “I know how the economy actually works.” If he leans more populist, he becomes the “border business guy who’s sick of being screwed by DC and corporate Democrats alike.”
Right now, we don’t have a manifesto from him, but we do know he’s a Mission businessman jumping in. The says that the machine is no longer scared of Cuellar, or is at least hedging its bets.
Adriel Ventura López
Adriel Ventura López is the curveball. He’s not on the SOS list yet, but he is already running online. A software developer, philanthropist, and lifelong South Texas advocate pitching a “pro-people, pro-democracy” agenda, “rooted in South Texas values.”
His social media and website brand him as pro-gun restrictions, pro-marijuana legalization, pro-farmer, and explicitly pro-women. He’s basically a younger, tech-literate, progressive-populist profile aimed at the people who would have backed Jessica Cisneros but are tired of losing.
If Villarreal is “the doctor” and Vantine is “the business guy,” Adriel is “the movement candidate.” He’s better positioned to tap into online energy, younger voters, people pissed about Dobbs, climate, and Cuellar’s whole vibe. His challenge will be converting vibes into money, organizers, and real numbers in Laredo, the Valley, and the San Antonio suburbs.
All eyes on the Valley.
For now, the entire region is holding its breath. Every insider, every donor, every activist, every consultant, every reporter, they’re all watching one thing. What does Henry Cuellar do next?
If he files, we’re headed for one of the nastiest Democratic primaries in the state. If he doesn’t, TX28 instantly becomes one of the most unpredictable open seats in Texas politics. And either way, the political math in South Texas changes overnight.
This district has always been complicated. But the stakes in 2026 are higher than they’ve been in a generation. Cuellar’s indictment isn’t going away. The national party is watching. Progressives are watching. Local powerbrokers are watching. And now, for the first time in years, multiple Democrats think they can win.
TX28 isn’t just another race on the ballot. It’s the test case for whether Democrats in South Texas are ready to turn the page or whether the old machine still has one more victory left in it.
Either way, buckle up. This is one of THE primary races to watch in Texas, and we’re just getting started.
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I can't wait for us to ditch Henry! Thank you, Michelle! I'll follow this one with great interest. Already shared on Bsky.
With all of those sleazy things, he also voted for the SAVE act.
Adios, Cuellar! Goodbye to Texas DINOS!