Harris County Is Where 2026 Will Be Won
Harris County is the Democratic engine of the state.
As a lifelong member of #TeamDallas, I hate to say this, but in 2026, Houston will be the center of the universe. At least in Texas, it will be. If you missed it on Saturday, Gavin Newsom came down to Houston to celebrate his win in California over Prop 50 (redistricting). It was a celebration in Governor Greg Abbott’s turf.
Maybe this means Newsom will be back on the campaign trail with Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, and whoever else. Not that I’m advocating for Newsom, but I’m ALWAYS advocating to stick it to Abbott. I’m loving this Newsome/Abbott feud, especially if it helps flip Texas.
Joining Newsom were Gina Hinojosa, Harris County Chair Mike Doyle, Gene Wu, Lizzie Fletcher, Al Green, and Jasmine Crockett. Here’s the full video:
The first thing I want to say is I was so happy to hear Gene Wu say, “volunteer to be a precinct chair.” Too often, candidates give calls to action but forget that one.
Harris County Precinct Chairs.
Harris County has something like 1,100 election precincts. This matters. I don’t keep an eye on the precinct chair numbers in every county, but I do consistently watch a few, Harris being one of them.
During the 2024 election, both Harris County Democrats and Republicans had just over 500 precinct chairs. They both have just over 550 right now.
The precinct game is one of the most important aspects to winning elections in Texas, one that was neglected in previous years. However, since Kendall Scudder’s election, there has been a surge of new precinct chairs. But will they be enough? And where it matters most?
Ideally, or what I’ve seen in other counties, is a House District Coordinator, who also recruits precinct chairs.
In a perfect world, each of Texas’ 9,500(ish) election precincts has an active precinct chair, and each one of those precinct chairs is working on knocking on doors and talking to their neighbors.
Recruiting precinct chairs should be one of Harris County’s top priorities, and I think a realistic expectation is closer to 700 by the March primary. This matters because Harris County Democratic Chair Mike Doyle is up for re-election and has to prove he’s ready to take on one of the biggest tasks in Texas in 2026.
How big will Harris County’s role be in 2026?
Let’s look at some numbers. We’ll look at the last three midterm elections. The reason we look at midterm elections, and not the last election (which was a presidential election), is that we want to do an apples-to-apples comparison.
Democratic turnout in Harris County is consistently stronger and more stable than Republican turnout. Republican turnout in Harris County has weakened over the decade. Harris County is a Democratic turnout anchor in the state, while statewide turnout reflects a more mixed or Republican-leaning electorate.
And while Harris County remains a vital force for Texas Democrats, it’s losing its impact for Texas Republicans.
In 2022, 15.92% of all Texas Democrats lived in Harris County, while 11.04% of all Republicans did.
That number has been steadily dropping among Republicans. I looked back 20 years, and with each election, Harris County counts for a smaller slice of the pie for the Republican Party of Texas, which is probably why last month at a campaign event in Cypress, Abbott promised to turn Harris County dark red with his $90 million campaign account. Republicans lost all three seats in CyFair ISD last week.
2022 was a challenging year for Texas Democrats, particularly in Harris County. While the share of Texas Democrats living in Harris County has consistently increased in each cycle, it dropped that year. In 2018, Harris County accounted for 17.31% of all Texas Democrats.
The bottom line is that Harris County is the single largest source of Democratic voters in Texas. If Harris County turnout rises, the whole state shifts; if Harris County turnout drops, the entire state drops.
What should Harris County be aiming for in 2026?
The Harris County Democratic Party and all their new precinct chairs (who are hitting the ground running) should aim for a 2018-level election where turnout was high across Texas, but especially in Harris County.
The 2018 state turnout was 53%, which is exceptionally high for a midterm year, especially in Texas, but I think next year we can hit higher. While I think every county should aim for at least 55% turnout, getting to 60% in a midterm under Trump, after the economy collapses (and it will), should be what everyone is striving for.
Democrats will overperform next year. There’s no question about it, but by how much? If the Harris County Democratic Party, the state party, the local organizations, the statewide candidates, and the local candidates all play their parts and work really hard, we can expect as many as 750,000 to 850,000 votes coming from Harris County alone.
If Harris County hits 800,000 Democratic votes, it moves the statewide map. It flips multiple House seats. It puts statewide races within striking distance. It forces Republicans to spend resources there rather than in the Valley, the suburbs, or DFW.
If Harris shows up, Texas changes. If Harris shows up, Abbott bleeds money. If Harris shows up, a blue 2026 is on the table.
If you live in Harris County, become a precinct chair.
If your precinct already has one, join their team. Knock on ten doors a week. Add ten neighbors to your contact list. Talk to your block.
Texas won’t flip because of TV ads or “good vibes.” It flips when neighbors talk to neighbors. And Harris County has the numbers to do it.
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Axios reported that over the last 20 years, an average of 13.8% of registered Harris County voters participated in odd-numbered elections. Last Tuesday it was 16.4%.
I was so impressed that Newsom was sticking it to Abbott so quickly after the election. I also love that people are not falling for the Republican division tactic of setting off Californians against Texans. Sure, we gripe about Californians moving here. But we gripe about everyone who moves here. It just takes a while to adjust. We're all Americans, not a bunch of prehistoric Europeans engaging in tribal warfare.
If Texas goes Blue, it's lights out for Republicans in the Electoral College. And they know it. It's about time Democrats knew it too.