HD37: The Most Flippable Seat In South Texas

The numbers, the candidates, and the road to November.

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There are 21 days left until the primary, 7 days until early voting starts (even fewer if you’re reading this tomorrow), and three Democrats in this race. The time is ticking down for one of them to make an impression on voters enough to win the primary. But who will it be? And can Democrats flip this seat?

First, the district.

HD37 is at the tippy-toe of Texas and is one of the most flippable Republican-held seats in Texas because, demographically and economically, it looks far more like a Democratic district than a GOP one. The population is overwhelmingly Latino and working class, with 82.3% of residents identifying as Hispanic.

More than half of households, 55.7%, speak a language other than English at home, and roughly 10% of residents speak English “not well” or “not at all.”

Why is it even Republican in the first place?

I want to tell you it’s complicated, but the truth is, it’s just been a neglected area for Democratic infrastructure for way too long. But don’t worry, this year, all that’s going to change.

Economically, HD37 is exactly the kind of place where a strong populist economic message should resonate. Poverty sits at 22.2%, and per-capita income is just $26,953. While rents are lower than the Texas average at about $965 per month, affordability remains a serious problem. 33.5% of renters are cost-burdened, paying more than 35% of their income on housing. The district covers all of Willacy County and roughly 39% of Cameron County, with Harlingen as the main population anchor, along with communities like Raymondville, Lyford, and Los Fresnos.

Republican incumbent Janie Lopez (HD37)

Politically, the math to flip the seat is challenging but very doable. In 2024, Republican incumbent Janie Lopez won re-election 55% to 45%, receiving 30,590 votes to the Democrats’ 25,014. That produced a GOP margin of 5,576 votes. In practical terms, Democrats need to make up roughly half of that gap(about 2,789 net votes) to win in November.

That means the path to victory is not about converting Republicans. It is about turning out more of the district’s natural Democratic electorate and cleaning up ballot drop-off.

There are several realistic ways to find those 2,789 votes. One path would be almost entirely turnout-driven. Bringing out roughly 3,500 to 4,500 new or low-propensity Democratic voters, which, after normal GOP growth, would net the margin needed.

Because of who lives here, the winning message must be relentlessly focused on day-to-day economic concerns. The core issues that will move voters in HD37 are the cost of living, public school funding, healthcare access, and flooding and infrastructure. This district has a very large share of workers employed in education, healthcare, and social assistance (about 30.1% of the workforce).

So who is on the ballot?

All three come from the Rio Grande Valley, all three frame themselves as community-first candidates, and all three believe this seat can and should be back in Democratic hands. But they bring very different backgrounds and styles to the race.

Oziel “Ozzie” Ochoa

Ozzie Ochoa is a lifelong Harlingen resident and the son of a Bronze Star Vietnam veteran. He grew up on a small family farm, graduated from Harlingen South High School, earned a bachelor’s degree from UTPA and a master’s from Lamar University, and most recently completed a superintendent certification program at UTRGV.

Professionally, Ochoa has spent his entire career in public education as a teacher, coach, principal, and, now, as Director of Special Education. Ochoa presents himself as a straightforward progressive populist, emphasizing workers’ rights, raising wages, protecting public schools from vouchers, expanding mental health services, and defending reproductive freedom. Of the three candidates, he offers the most explicitly ideological, class-focused platform.

Stephany Bauer

Stephany Bauer is an educator and public health professional with deep roots in South Texas. Raised in La Feria by parents who were both teachers, she earned her education degree from UT–Pan American, a master’s from UTRGV, and is currently completing a Doctor of Public Health at UTHealth Houston.

Bauer’s professional background bridges education and health policy. She began her career in the classroom and later worked on public-health legislation through the Texas Legislative Fellowship Program and as a Graduate Archer Fellow in Washington, DC. Rather than focusing on big ideological fights, Bauer talks about drainage projects, infrastructure funding, teacher pay, healthcare access, broadband, and making sure state dollars actually reach the Valley.

Esmeralda “Esmi” Cantu-Castle

Esmeralda Cantu-Castle comes to this race from a background in legal advocacy and community service. For more than a decade, she worked alongside a civil rights and employment law attorney, helping teachers, firefighters, police officers, and city workers fight discrimination and unfair treatment.

She is currently a law student at Mitchell Hamline School of Law and frames her campaign as an extension of her work connecting families with resources and opportunities. She presents herself as a community advocate ready to take those skills to Austin.

Candidates priorities.

While all three Democrats share common ground on many issues, each campaign emphasizes different priorities and approaches.

Ozzie Ochoa

Ochoa’s platform is built around five main pillars:

• Education.

• Public Safety & Mental Health.

• Veterans.

• Economy & Workers’ Rights.

• Women’s Rights.

You can learn more about Ochoa on his Facebook page.

Stephany Bauer

Bauer’s campaign focuses on bread-and-butter policy issues that affect daily life in South Texas:

• Lowering Costs & Property Tax Relief.

• Strong Public Schools.

• Healthcare & Public Health.

• Flooding & Infrastructure.

• Jobs & Economic Opportunity.

• Transportation & Broadband.

• Public Safety.

You can learn more about Bauer on her Facebook and Instagram.

Esmeralda Cantu-Castle

Cantu-Castle organizes her campaign around broad community-focused themes:

• Education.

• Economy & Jobs.

• Healthcare.

• Stable Housing.

• Veterans & Seniors.

• Environment.

• First Responders.

You can learn more about Cantu-Castle on her Facebook page.

My two cents.

If Democrats are serious about flipping this seat in November, the primary question is not “who sounds best on paper?” It’s “who is most likely to turn out the voters this district actually has?”

Ozzie Ochoa is the clearest progressive in this race, and he doesn’t shy away from it. He talks openly about raising wages, protecting workers, defending public schools, and protecting reproductive rights. In a district where per-capita income is under $27,000 and a third of renters are struggling to keep a roof over their heads, that kind of economic populism is relevant.

His background in public education is also a huge asset. Schools are the heartbeat of this district. Teachers, school staff, and parents make up a massive share of the local workforce. A candidate who understands that world from the inside can connect with voters in a way consultants never can.

Where Ochoa has to prove himself is in infrastructure. A strong message is not the same thing as a strong campaign. If he wants to win in November, he’ll need to show he can build a professional, bilingual field program that reaches beyond the activist base and into living rooms, churches, and colonias.

Stephany Bauer, on the other hand, feels like the “nuts and bolts” candidate in this race. She talks about drainage projects, healthcare access, broadband, teacher pay, and bringing state dollars back to the Valley. That kind of practical, problem-solving message can play very well in a general election, especially with moderate and low-information voters who just want someone competent and serious.

I like that she thinks in terms of infrastructure and public health outcomes. HD37 desperately needs someone who can navigate the Austin bureaucracy and actually deliver resources back home.

My concern with Bauer is not her qualifications. It’s whether her campaign voice is urgent enough for a district that is hurting right now. Voters need someone who sounds like they’re ready to fight for them.

Esmeralda Cantu-Castle brings an advocate’s heart to this race. A district like this needs people in Austin who understand what ordinary residents go through when systems fail them.

Her challenge is turning that broad advocacy message into a political brand. In a short, crowded primary, voters need to be able to explain in one sentence why a candidate is running and what they’ll change. Right now, her platform feels more like a list of good intentions than a clear governing agenda.

Any of these three Democrats would be better for HD37 than Janie Lopez. Full stop.

The Bottom Line

HD37 is winnable. The demographics are there. The economics are there. The issues that motivate voters in this district are exactly the issues Democrats are strongest on. The only thing missing for years has been consistent investment and attention.

Whoever wins this primary is going to inherit a rare opportunity. They won’t need to reinvent the wheel. They’ll need to speak directly to working families, run a fully bilingual campaign, and put in the hard field work to bring out voters who have too often been ignored.

Do that, and the 2,789-vote gap from 2024 disappears fast.

Early voting begins in just days. That means the decision about who gets to take on Janie Lopez is right now.

If you live in HD37, this is one of the most important primaries in Texas. You have three Democrats with three different styles, and one very clear mission.

Now it’s up to voters to choose who they trust to walk it.

• February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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