HD41: Three Democrats, Two Lanes, One Outcome

A working-class district at war with its own politics.

In most southern states, there is a “Waffle House Index.” They can judge how bad a storm is going to be by whether a Waffle House is closed. But here in Texas, we have the “Ted Cruz Index.” If our Junior Senator is spotted fleeing the state to a warmer location, then we’re likely to have a bad weather event.

Cruz was spotted yesterday, headed to Laguna Beach:

You have about 24-hours left to do all your panic-buying. Go, go, go!

One place that is going to get chilly, but stay safe from all the ice and snow, is McAllen, TX. While McAllen’s weather is unbearable in the summers, I’m starting to feel a little jealous of their winters.

And McAllen is where the next House race we’re jumping into is located. Check it out:

That’s HD41, way down in the Valley, the long-time seat for Representative Bobby Guerra (D), who is retiring. With an empty seat on the line, three new Democrats… or possibly “alleged” Democrats, are fighting for this seat, plus several Republicans.

And while most of Texas is about to freeze over, this is one race that is just heating up. Let’s get into it.

HD41 is overwhelmingly Hispanic and working-class.

Bobby Guerra is retiring, so there’s no point in talking about his record, but it isn’t a secret that he’s a Conservative Democrat. Which has often been confusing from a policy perspective, since Conservative policy mostly helps the billionaire and executive class.

This district is ~86% Hispanic overall, and has a nearly 20% poverty rate, well above the Texas average. There are large shares of service workers, healthcare & education workers, retail & food service, and multigenerational households.

Here is how they went in 2024:

• President: Trump 50.3 / Harris 48.7

• US Senate: Allred 51.7 / Cruz 46.1

• State House 41: Dem 53.5 / GOP 46.5

Weird, right? In this district, voters will cross-ticket; they are not ideologically Republican and then appear to respond to candidates, not party labels. It’s also a low-turnout district.

I can’t tell you a solid reason districts like this vote Conservative, even Conservative Democrat. These are Democrats who vote like Republicans on labor, policing, fossil fuels, and immigration enforcement. They never challenge local power brokers. Functionally, they act as a firewall against progressive organizing.

In 2026, I expect Democrats to hold this seat in November. The GOP is still fighting to gain ground in South Texas, but with Trump’s ratings with the Hispanic community, it’s not going to happen this year.

The bigger question is, will Guerra be replaced with another Conservative Democrat who cozies up with fascist Republicans? Or can the community finally get real representation here?

Who is on the ticket?

Ok, let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first.

Who did Guerra endorse?

Seby Haddad, a former McAllen City Commissioner.

Heddad has received the endorsements from other Conservative Democrats in the House, including:

• Terry Canales

• Oscar Longoria

• Surgio Munoz

• Armando Martinez

Those names listed above chose not to break quorum with their Democratic peers last Legislative session.

While Heddad is running as a Democrat, his Democratic opponents, Julio Salinas and Eric Holguin, have accused him of participating in Republican activities, and they have receipts.

From Julio Salinas:

From Eric Holguin:

Heddad says he’s a banking executive, a local entrepreneur who understands the hopes of working families. You can learn more about him on his Facebook page.

Next is Eric Holguin, a Valley-raised LBJ School MPA. He’s a career Democratic policy professional whose work includes helping pass the PACT Act for veterans. His politics emphasize access and coalition-building over confrontation or movement-driven change. You can learn more about him on his Facebook page.

If his name sounds familiar, this is the third time he’s run for office in the last decade. But maybe the third time’s a charm?

Last, there’s Julio Salinas, a Valley-born organizer and Capitol staffer running on a working-class message focused on cost of living, education, healthcare, and labor protections. You can learn more about him on his Facebook page.

But what are they all about?

All three candidates have their priorities/issues listed on their pages (⬆️ click their names above). I read through them all, and here’s what I think:

Seby Heddad: Judging from his website (not his opponent’s videos), I would call him a “Chamber of Commerce Democrat.” But he also takes a police-first-governing tone. He explicitly praises police expansion and emphasizes working with DHS/CBP. Really, he’s the most natural fit for Guerra’s endorsement.

Julio Salinas: His tone is totally working-class populist. He’s about wages, unions, COLA for retirees, Medicaid expansion, anti-voucher, flood infrastructure, transit, and calling out Austin using the Valley as a prop. This is the clearest progressive material agenda of the three, including labor power, public investment, and direct affordability. He’s running against “leaders who stopped fighting,” which is a straight shot at the conservative Dem machine.

Eric Holguin: He’s absolutely a policy-wonk (I like that), and he’s progressive-ish. He’s the most policy-dense and broad, with a lot of progressive-friendly items (Medicaid expansion, renters’ rights, pro-choice language, anti–Operation Lone Star, voting rights) plus future-economy framing (AI, clean energy) and “let’s make government work” competence vibes.

What does this mean strategically for progressives in HD41?

A progressive can take the seat, but only if the progressive-ish vote doesn’t split between Salinas and Holguin while Heddad consolidates the establishment/network vote. If Salinas and Holguin both stay in and neither clearly dominates, Heddad’s path gets a lot easier.

It’s also worth noting that Salinas has also pulled in several big House endorsements. Including:

• Rep. Venton Jones

• Rep. Lulu Flores

• Rep. Josey Garcia

• Rep. Christina Morales

• Rep. Tery Meza

• Rep. Mary Ann Perez

This race comes down to math, discipline, and turnout.

If Heddad comes in third, which may be a tall order given the incumbent’s endorsement, the runoff could go to Salinas and Holguin. Otherwise, Hedadd will be in the runoff. And the way this race is looking, a runoff is likely.

Primaries are decided by smaller, older, higher-propensity voters. Those voters tend to be more cautious, more establishment-friendly, and more likely to default to familiar names and endorsements.

Progressives can expand the electorate.

That means:

• young voters

• working-class renters

• bilingual families

• first-time primary voters

If those voters stay home, the “safe” choice wins by default. If they show up, the math changes fast. I would expect the primary to see both Holguin and Salinas chasing these voters.

This race should not be framed as “left vs. moderate.” That’s consultant language, and it loses here.

The winning message is material and local:

• cost of living

• public schools, no vouchers

• healthcare access

• jobs that pay, wage theft enforcement, labor protections

And one more thing that voters already understand instinctively. Austin uses the Valley as a prop. Politicians fly in for photo-ops, talk tough on TV, and then forget the region when it’s time to fund schools, clinics, drainage, or transit.

Guerra’s endorsement, along with backing from conservative House members, signals access to donors, consultants, and a long-standing permission structure. That’s the establishment lane.

Salinas’ endorsements from progressive House members signal activist energy, credibility with labor and grassroots organizers, and volunteers willing to knock doors in the heat.

But endorsements don’t vote.

At the end of the day, HD41 will be decided by who shows up, who knocks doors, and who convinces working families that this time, someone is actually fighting for them.

HD41 doesn’t need another Democrat who votes like a Republican and calls it pragmatism.

It needs someone who understands that a working-class, overwhelmingly Hispanic district should not be represented like a donor suburb. This race will be won or lost on turnout, and on whether progressives let fragmentation hand the seat to the establishment by default. No one is entitled to this seat. It has to be taken.

• February 2, 2026: Last Day to Register to Vote

• February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

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• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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