HD49: Eight Democrats, One Seat, And A Very Progressive District

When a safe blue seat becomes an ideological test.

As part of my continuing coverage of the Texas Democratic primaries, we’re now going to the very heart of Austin, to the most packed Democratic primary race across the state. HD49 is the seat being left open by Gina Hinojosa in her run for Governor, and there are eight hopefuls on the Democratic ticket, each vying to be the next Representative of this district. But as we all know, there can only be one.

Before we get into the candidates, let’s talk about the district.

HD49 is one of the most urban, educated, renter-heavy districts in the Texas House.

It’s super-safe blue, not competitive in the general election at all.

This is a pluralistic district but not a majority-minority district, with a sizable Latino population and a higher-than-state-average Asian population. This is a young, single, renter-oriented district, not a “family suburb.” That matters a lot for messaging. HD49 is one of the most highly educated districts in Texas, dominated by professionals, academics, tech workers, and public-sector employees.

Despite a high average income, 17.2% of residents live in poverty, driven by rent burden, service-sector wages, and student populations. Housing cost stress is real, even among “successful” voters.

Not only would I call this district solidly blue, but I would also call it heavily progressive. Perhaps even one of the most progressive districts in Texas. This is going to matter for messaging, and it’s going to matter for the candidate’s ideological leanings.

The candidates.

I am just going alphabetically, no preference.

Kimmie Ellison.

Kimmie Ellison is a nurse practitioner who grew up in North Texas and has lived in Austin since 2015. Being a nurse practitioner and a survivor of breast cancer, the healthcare issue appears to be a top priority for her.

I don’t see any big red flags with Ellison, but the priorities on her website do hedge a bit, and she doesn’t list direct solutions. Plus, under “Energy & Environment,” she uses language like “energy agnostic” and “shores up existing oil and natural gas resources.” That type of stuff will make a progressive voter uncomfortable, even in Texas, where green jobs outnumber fossil fuel jobs.

Ellison seems like a decent candidate, but for HD49, I wonder if she’s progressive enough.

Montserrat Garibay.

Montserrat Garibay is the former, and the first-ever, Latina Secretary-Treasurer of the Texas AFL-CIO. She has a background in education and organizing and is a lifelong Austinite. She was also a senior official in the Biden-Harris Administration.

Garibay first popped up on my radar when I heard about her endorsement from Representative Mary Gonzalez (D-El Paso), one of the most Conservative Democrats in the House, who helped coordinate quorum last year with Republicans. Endorsements tell us which coalitions a candidate is centering, which factions they’re comfortable aligning with, and sometimes, which compromises they’re already willing to make before ever casting a vote.

It should be noted that Progressive Greg Casar and heavyweight Liberal Wendy Davis have also endorsed Garibay, but the only House members to endorse her are Gonzalez and John Bucy, and progressives would have a lot of reasons to worry if Garibay plans to align herself with Mary Gonzalez in the House, if she should win.

Garribay’s priorities read like a progressive wish list, no issues with her platform.

Gigs Hodges.

Gigs Hodges is the only candidate in this race running openly as a Democratic Socialist. She is far from the only Democrat in Texas doing so, but she is the only one in HD49 building her campaign around it.

That’s notable, especially given how Democratic Socialism has become a much more visible and normalized part of Democratic politics, from AOC’s rise in Congress to Zohran Mamdani’s recent election. Polling reflects that shift as well. Whether the Democratic Party is fully heading in that direction is still an open question, but there’s no denying the ground has moved.

Hodges’ campaign is explicit about what she means by Democratic Socialism. Her platform is built around decommodifying basic necessities, expanding democratic control over systems that shape daily life, and rejecting what she describes as corporate capture of both parties. Housing, healthcare, education, transit, wages, and climate policy are framed as rights.

Her campaign is rooted in naming systems directly, capitalism, privatization, corporate power, and the limits of establishment politics. For a district like HD49, that matters. This is a highly educated, renter-heavy, progressive district where voters are less concerned with ideological labels than they are with clarity, alignment, and whether a candidate is willing to challenge entrenched power. Democratic Socialism may still be controversial in some parts of Texas, but HD49 is not most parts of Texas.

Robin Lerner.

Robin Lerner is a human rights attorney and longtime public servant whose career has centered on international diplomacy, civil rights law, and higher education policy.

Lerner’s priorities reflect a distinctly liberal-institutionalist approach rather than a movement-progressive one. Her platform emphasizes innovation, global competitiveness, industry partnerships, and institutional reform, with a strong faith in education pipelines, public–private collaboration, and policy expertise to steer change.

I would say that she isn’t out of step with Austin’s professional class or with liberal Democratic governance, but in a district as progressive as HD49, Lerner is closer to the party’s liberal wing than its activist left. Her candidacy reads as serious, experienced, and values-driven, but oriented toward stabilizing and modernizing institutions rather than confronting them. Like with Ellison, I wonder if she’s progressive enough for this district.

Josh Reyna.

Josh Reyna is running as a progressive, but he’s also Senator Cesar Blanco’s (D-El Paso) longtime Chief of Staff. And Blanco is another conservative Democrat out of El Paso. What’s in the water over there? I don’t know. I swear, Beto drank all the progressive juice and didn’t leave a drop for anybody else.

Either way, it’s hard to square “movement progressive” branding with years spent as the top staffer for a senator whose lane has been far more establishment-friendly. That doesn’t automatically disqualify Reyna, because staffers aren’t carbon copies of their bosses, but it does raise the obvious question. Is he running as a progressive because that’s who he is, or because that’s what HD49 wants to hear?

Unlike the other candidate, Reyna does not list his priorities on his website.

Sam Slade.

Sam Slade is a stand-up comedian from Austin. That link goes to his Threads, because I wasn’t able to find a website for him.

Honestly, he seems like a cool guy. He’s making videos of himself in front of his guitar, his Beto sign, and a framed picture of Obama on his wall. He also posted a video of himself yelling at a Waymo (as a joke). Unfortunately, cool guy doesn’t always equal serious candidate. I can’t tell you much else about him, because I don’t know.

Kathie Tovo.

Kathie Tovo is a former city council member and adjunct faculty member at UT. Also, no website yet. But as someone who has previously served in office, she won’t be a stranger to Austin voters.

The word on the streets (the Austin streets) is that Tovo is a Nimbyist, and during her stint on the Austin City Council, she fought efforts to legalize more housing and reform outdated zoning laws. Moreover, recent Yimby laws passed in Austin occurred only after Tovo’s tenure.

Tovo has not yet put out her list of priorities.

Daniel Wang.

Daniel Wang beat former Travis County Republican Party Chair Matt Mackowiak for the Travis Central Appraisal District Board of Directors.

---

Matt Mackowiak also runs a Substack, and everything he writes sits behind a paywall. But I don’t believe basic political information should be gatekept. Lone Star Left stays free so Texans can access it. If you want to help keep it that way, consider becoming a paid subscriber.

---

Wang, in his role as Director of the Travis Central Appraisal District Board, has focused on equity and fairness for taxpayers. He has been active in Democratic politics across Travis County, serving on the county party chair’s advisory council and working with the Texas Democratic Party’s Voter Protection Program.

His priorities are straightforward and aligned with the district. He centers affordability through housing, utilities, and wages, argues for fully funding public schools and stopping voucher schemes, supports expanding healthcare through Medicaid, and emphasizes fixing the electric grid. Overall, his platform reads as pragmatic-progressive.

My two cents.

Many factors go into a primary election. Money matters. So does organization. Name recognition, endorsements, field operations, door knocking, and who actually shows up to talk to voters when it’s hot, inconvenient, and unpaid all play a role.

In a crowded race like this one, candidates will also try to signal “progressive” in ways that range from deeply rooted to purely strategic, because HD49 voters expect it. The challenge for voters is separating lived values from branding, substance from positioning, and long-term alignment from election-season rhetoric. In a district this progressive, authenticity, consistency, and a real willingness to challenge power will matter just as much as resumes and talking points.

This race will go to a runoff. Who will be the last two standing?

I think that the top candidates in this race are likely to be Garibay, Hodges, and Wang. Ideologically speaking, they’re probably the best matches for the district.

HD49 isn’t deciding whether to send a Democrat to the Texas House. That part is settled.

What voters here are really choosing is what kind of Democrat they want representing one of the most progressive districts in the state. This race is less about party labels and more about power, priorities, and credibility. It’s about whether a candidate will challenge corporate influence, fight for renters and working people, and actually reflect the values this district claims to hold, or whether they’ll manage the status quo with better branding.

With eight candidates and no clear consensus front-runner, a runoff is inevitable. When that happens, the question won’t just be who has the biggest war chest or the most endorsements, but who has earned trust through clarity, consistency, and real alignment with the district. HD49 voters are paying attention. And in a district this engaged, that tends to matter more than consultants expect.

• February 2, 2026: Last Day to Register to Vote

• February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.