High Stakes, High Hopes: Election Eve In Texas

The fights, the stakes, and the hope for a bluer Texas.

Nov 05, 2024

In roughly 24-hours from now, we’ll know the world’s fate. Everything is at risk, from the climate to world peace and whether or not we have control of our own bodies. We’ll all be on pins and needles until the race is called for Kamala Harris.

Aside from the presidency, we’re also watching the US Senate race and the various elections in Texas. I’m sure many of you will be at election watch parties or glued to your TVs, but if you’re looking for specific updates on Texas elections, you can watch those live here:

I’ll monitor the results closely and have a full update on Wednesday. Then, we’ll examine the data over the next week.

Update on the federal election monitors.

Harris County Democrats held a press conference today to let Harris County and the rest of Texas know that Greg Abbott’s stunt to block federal election monitors will not be successful. Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia said she had spoken to the Department of Justice, which assured her that the federal election monitors were on their way.

It’s a good thing, too, because today, Ken Paxton announced he was deploying an “Election Day Rapid Response Legal Team” in major counties to “monitor voting and handle legal issues that may arise.” Paxton claims that the team will enforce election laws, address problems like ballot shortages or polling closures, and counter lawsuits from activist groups.

It sounds like he’s deploying a team of brown shirts.

One of the most egregious pre-election statements came today from Texas Voter Suppression Czar Senator Bettencourt. Buckle your seatbelt for this one because Bettencourt’s statements are wild.

This is some Grade-A level gaslighting from Bettencourt, considering:

It was Bettencourt’s bill that destroyed the mail-in ballot system in Texas and reduced polling locations.
Bettencourt pushed a bill for armed uniformed “Election Monitors” in urban areas.
It was Bettencourt’s bill that made it a felony to make a mistake on a ballot.
It was Bettencourt’s bill that removed Texas from the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program.
Bettencourt was behind the bill that gave the Secretary of State’s office authority over Harris County elections.
He also pushed a bill that mandates the Secretary of State withhold election funds from counties that don’t regularly purge enough voters.
He championed a bill to remove voters from voter rolls if they don’t vote every two years.
Senator Bettencourt’s bill banned drive-thru voting and 24-hour voting in Harris County.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Paul Bettencourt has had his name attached to every voter suppression bill to come out of the Texas Legislature in the last ten years. On top of that, he’s been involved with multiple voter purges and been associated with groups like True The Vote, who challenge Democratic voter registrations to get them removed.

For Bettencourt to say in a press conference repeatedly, “There’s no voter suppression. The feds don’t need to come,” is like an episode from Twilight Zone.

Listen to what Representative Gene Wu had to say in the Democratic press conference today:

The Department of Justice told our Democratic leaders they would be here to monitor the elections, despite what Greg Abbott and the Secretary of State said. We can rest assured that the checks and balances are in place.

What comes after that?

We’ll certainly revisit this in the coming weeks, but we need to expect the far-right to lash out in violence after the election. Trump is almost sure to declare himself the winner early tomorrow night, whether he’s up in the count or not.

Election Eve prediction from Lone Star Left: Kamala Harris will win the electoral college and become the 47th President of the United States.

We can’t worry about their actions when the orange one loses again. Just pray the FBI catches the lone wolves early. All week, the FBI will operate a 24/7 national election command post (NECP) from the Strategic Information and Operations Center (SIOC) at FBI Headquarters in Washington, DC.

While the far-right may try another January 6 or attempt to target our government and infrastructure, know that our law enforcement will be better prepared this time.

To take your mind off of it, here is the final electoral map prediction from GOP Jesus.

In Texas, what’s most important?

Sure, we want to flip the state blue and give Kamala Harris a win, but that isn’t the most important because she can win without Texas.

We need to flip enough Texas House seats so that we can block all of the terrible things the Republicans have planned in the 89th Legislature.

We need to flip 12 House seats to flip the Texas House.
Even if we don’t flip 12, we can still obstruct the worst Republican priorities if we flip 7+.

While I will continue to hold out hope that we’ll have enough Democratic votes tomorrow to flip the Texas House, we should also be prepared for what happens if we don’t.

Let’s say tomorrow, as races are being called, we’re hit with the same kind of news we got in 2020 or 2022. Don’t freak out. We’ve been here before. And if that’s the case, I promise I’ll be here for you Wednesday with a pep talk.

If we don’t flip the House but flip enough seats to shut down the Republican agenda for 20205, that will be a win. Texas Legislative Democrats are about as tough and intelligent as they come. They know how to play by the rules and still block some of the worst Republican bills imaginable.

Until the races are called tomorrow evening, all that’s left to do is wait.

Election Eve prediction from Lone Star Left: Democrats will flip enough seats to shut down the Republican agenda in the 89th Legislative Session.

And what about Colin Allred and Ted Cruz?

Election Eve prediction from Lone Star Left: Colin Allred will win.

We have decades of election data on our side that shows that Republicans have primarily not made gains in Texas in a long time. The only place they have moved the needle is in South Texas, and they may make inroads there again. If they do, don’t panic. South Texas (or the Lower RGV in this chart) only accounts for 4.4% of voters in Texas.

If you haven’t voted already—get your ass to the polls tomorrow!

Houston, San Antonio, and Austin are all predicting rain in the morning but clearer skies later in the afternoon. It sucks because these are some of the most critical areas we need turnout at. Hopefully, the rain won’t stay too long, and we will see a high turnout everywhere it’s needed.

Texas voters have the power to disrupt the status quo, fight voter suppression, and hold accountable those who seek to undermine our democracy. Rain or shine, we need everyone at the polls tomorrow to make their voice heard (unless you voted early).

This is our moment to stand together, to protect our rights, and to push back against those who would strip them away. No matter what happens, know that Lone Star Left will be here to break down the results, offer support, and continue the fight. So go vote, Texas. Our future depends on it.