Is Something Happening In Texas?

Texas Democrats are awake. That’s about all we know.

I’m almost scared to talk about it, not that I’m superstitious or anything, but something unusual is happening in the Texas primary. Democrats are actually showing up.

VoteHub has an awesome tool you can check out here that publishes updates on voter turnout on both sides of the aisle. And as of writing this, the turnout so far is:

• Democrats: 277,706 (205% of this same time day in 2022)

• Republicans: 251,766 (113% of this same time day in 2022)

So, while Republican turnout seems to be up a mere smidge from 2022, Democratic turnout is double. I would say that absolutely shows enthusiasm on the Democratic side.

The last time Democrats outpaced Republicans in a primary was in 2008, when they voted for the presidential ticket. 2.8 million Democrats voted, opposed to 1.3 million Republicans.

And maybe that’s an important lesson for us, not to get too worked up about these early voting numbers yet. Because in the 2008 general election in Texas, McCain beat Obama 55% to 43%. However, if we’re going to be in a year when Texas flips, of course, it’s going to start with outpacing the Republicans in the primaries.

2008 was a presidential year. The last time Democrats outpaced Republicans in a primary election during a midterm year was 2002. It was also the year John Cornyn was elected to the Senate.

The moral of the story is that even if we outpace Republicans by double or triple, we still have to bust our humps to do everything we can to turnout the vote in November.

Who is showing up?

Once again, Tarrant County Democrats are blowing Republicans out of the water (thanks Chris Tackett).

There really isn’t a lot we can tell from these numbers, other than X number of Democrats or Republicans showed up in a particular county. And because the Secretary of State is updating at a very slow pace, so is the VoteHub app (FYI), with some counties not showing up at all.

Note: The counties that aren’t showing up, like Nueces, you can always see the turnout totals directly on the Nueces County Elections Website. Dems are up there, too.

And they’re also kicking ass in Bexar County.

Let’s look at the top ten most populous counties and where they are in comparison to the 2022 total for Democratic turnout (this is according to VoteHub):

• Harris County: 42,410 (43% of 2022 total)

• Dallas County: 39,262 (65% of 2022 total)

• Tarrant County: 28,013 (71% of 2022 total)

• Bexar County: 18,078 (31% of 2022 total)

• Travis County: 26,772 (45% of 2022 total)

• Collin County: 11,929 (57% of 2022 total)

• Denton County: 11,105 (74% of 2022 total)

• Fort Bend County: 10,856 (42% of 2022 total)

• Hidalgo County: 9,825 (31% of 2022 total)

• El Paso County: 8,824 (44% of 2022 total)

I have a few observations.

The biggest one is that Dallas County is outpacing Harris County, not in raw numbers (though they aren’t far apart), but in percentage terms compared to 2022.

A lot of people don’t know this, but we’ve absolutely talked about it here before. Dallas is far bluer than Houston, and when you look at election trendlines, Dallas isn’t much further behind Travis County in how blue they vote. And while I think a lot of people are jumping out and saying, “This is Jasmine Crockett’s home turf, this proves excitement behind this particular candidate.” I think there’s a bigger picture here.

Remember, there’s a competitive Congressional election in Dallas, TX33, that’s been getting national attention. So, are we seeing Democratic excitement behind Crockett? Or are we seeing Democratic excitement behind the TX33 race? Or maybe a little bit of both?

Tarrant County is also way up, and maybe that’s excitement due to the top of the ticket, or any number of down-ballot races Tarrant has going on, but I think there’s another story in Tarrant County that can only be told if you’re paying real close attention.

Tarrant County Democrats are fired up after Taylor Rehmet’s win. They are fired up to get Christian Nationalist Tim O’Hare out of their County Court. And multiple progressive community organizations are working together, year-round, to make that happen.

There’s no way to tell until the numbers mean one thing or the other for Crockett or Talarico. Or Goodwin and Velez. Or Jaworski and Johnson. It’s all just a guessing game at this point.

Here are some stats that L2 Data put out yesterday:

As far as the “crossover vote,” I’ve been thinking about this. Who could those “cossovers be?”

1. Legit Republicans or ex-Republicans who saw the light and have recently sworn off the GOP for good?

2. People who have always been Democrats, but have previously voted in Republican primaries because they didn’t have Democrats on the ballot locally?

And that’s the thing in Texas, because we have open primaries and because this is the first year we’ve had Democrats in every seat up and down the ballot, in the past, WAY TOO MANY Democrats have voted in Republican primaries to try to swing the vote to the least looniest legislator or congressperson.

MAGA is at an all-time low. There are plenty of “Leave MAGA” movements happening all over the country, but are they real? Are they growing? I don’t know the answer to that.

But I want you to look at some of the other data they published. The early vote is mostly:

• 65+

• White

• Followed by Hispanic

• Followed by 55+

• Tilt female

This is right in line with exit polls from previous years in Texas Democratic primaries.

You may be thinking, how can this data company know all of this information, since we don’t even register by party, let alone demographics.

They can see the public voter file. Every time you vote, the state records that you voted in a Democratic primary, a Republican primary, or a general election. Just which election you participated in and when. Over the years, that has become a pattern. If someone has voted in six Republican primaries and suddenly shows up in a Democratic one, that’s a pretty strong signal.

Then they layer on regular consumer data, the same boring stuff used for coupons and credit card offers. Age ranges, neighborhood demographics, census data, home ownership, magazine subscriptions, whether an area leans older or younger, urban or rural.

Put those together, and you get probability. Big data knows what people like you historically tend to do. So when analysts say “older white voters, slightly more women, possible crossover voters,” they’re measuring behavior patterns built from millions of anonymous voting histories stacked on top of demographic trends.

So what does all of this mean?

High turnout doesn’t automatically belong to one candidate. It doesn’t prove enthusiasm for Crockett, or momentum for Talarico, or a surge for any specific down-ballot race. What it proves is participation, and participation has a lot of parents. Competitive primaries. Local fights. National politics. Community organizing. Habitual voters are showing up earlier than usual. Even people who finally have a Democrat on their ballot for the first time in years.

Right now, we can see how many people are voting. We can even make educated guesses about what kind of voters they are. But we cannot yet say who they’re voting for.

Every election cycle, people try to reverse-engineer results from early vote numbers. Sometimes they’re right. A lot of the time, they’re projecting what they want to see onto incomplete information.

Turnout tells us the energy level, not the winner.

Democrats showing up at these levels matters. It matters for November, it matters for organizing, and it matters for whether Texas is competitive at all.

But when it comes to who has the edge in any individual race?

We’ll know it when the votes are counted.

Until then, the only safe conclusion is that Texans are paying attention, and nobody gets to claim victory early.

• February 27, 2026: Final Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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