JD Vance Lied About The Flow Of The Iron River
Texas is a top source of firearms smuggled into Mexico. Yet, this week JD Vance claimed firearms were being smuggled from Mexico.
During this week’s VP debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz, Vance lied about many things. He spoke really fast, and he lied a lot. Presumably, that’s just who he is. While there have been plenty of fact-checks this week, there’s one topic we must drill down on and know the facts about because this topic has been one of the biggest drivers of mass migration over the years, and his like wasn’t only stupid. It was done with malice.
That’s right, we’re talking about the Iron River. Here’s what he said:
Why is the sound out of sync? I have no idea. Here’s the full video; this part is at the 56-minute mark.
Vance’s exact words: “Thanks to Kamala Harris’ open border, we’ve seen a massive influx in the number of illegal guns run by the Mexican drug cartel. So, that number then, the amount of illegal guns in our country, is higher today than it was three and a half years ago.”
Only a moron from Ohio, which is nowhere near a border, who peddles lies would come up with such a tall tale. JD Vance was referring to the Iron River, and it’s essential in the immigration discussion that we all know that it flows from North to South.
What is the Iron River?
The term “Iron River” refers to the large-scale trafficking of firearms from the United States to Mexico, where these weapons fuel cartel violence and crime. The term likely emerged from the constant, unrelenting flow of weapons, like a river, moving across the US-Mexico border. This metaphor emphasizes the steady and overwhelming volume of guns moving southward, often from states with looser gun regulations, into the hands of criminal organizations in Mexico.
Between 70% and 90% of firearms recovered from crime scenes in Mexico can be traced back to the US. Most of these guns are purchased in border states with more relaxed gun laws, particularly Texas, Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Florida. These five states accounted for 79% of the firearms traced back to the US between 2017 and 2021, with Texas alone responsible for more than 14,000 guns smuggled into Mexico. Trafficking networks exploit loose regulations, using “straw purchasers” to buy firearms legally and then transport them across the border.
This lie from Vance distorts the fact that the trafficking flow is mainly in the opposite direction—guns legally bought in the US are fueling violence in Mexico, not the other way around.
This is nothing new. The Iron River has been fueling mass migration for many years.
Here is a good piece from VICE on how American Guns are arming the Mexican Cartel:
The Iron River has been a point of discussion in the immigration debate since Obama was still in office.
Here is how the Iron River works and why Republicans are directly responsible for mass migration:
Republican states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona strip away all regulations when it comes to firearms. Guns, guns, guns for everyone. Guns for the mentally ill, guns for children, and guns for people who have grudges.
Legal citizens go to gun stores and buy all of the guns they can carry.
They drive down to Mexico with those guns, never being stopped by border patrol because our government only cares what comes into our country, not out.
The cartel purchases the guns and distributes them to their cartel members.
These guns are used in crimes and violence all across Mexico and the Northern Triangle.
Good people flee their homes to get away from the cartel violence and to make sure their children are safe.
Migrants flee to the American border looking for safety in lands beyond where the cartel controls.
This is not the only reason for mass migration—there is also a climate crisis. However, the Iron River has caused more mass migration to America this century than almost anything else.
More from CBS News on the Iron River and gunrunning networks:
Vance’s lie during the VP debate is not just a falsehood but a dangerous manipulation of facts, mainly because it obscures the role the US plays in the violence and instability driving mass migration. By claiming that cartels are bringing illegal guns into the US, Vance distorts the reality of gun trafficking. He shifts attention away from the actual flow of weapons—the Iron River—which moves from the US to Mexico.
He tries to shift the narrative to foreign actors, ignoring the fact that guns legally purchased in the US are smuggled into Mexico, where they empower violent cartels.
This misinformation fuels xenophobic policies and attitudes while the real problem—US-sourced firearms wreaking havoc in Mexico—is ignored. It’s a deliberate attempt to demonize immigrants and deflect from the role America’s gun industry and policies play in exacerbating violence south of the border. Vance not only downplays the US responsibility but also maligns the very people trying to escape that violence, framing them as a threat rather than victims seeking refuge.
Shouldn’t an American Senator and candidate for Vice President know how gun trafficking works?
It’s up to each one of us to decide whether JD Vance’s statements were made out of ignorance or if it was a calculated attempt to stoke fear and scapegoat migrants.
While considering that, here is JD Vance admitting he lied about Haitians eating cats and dogs to get media attention:
Vance’s lie undermines informed discourse on immigration by twisting the narrative. The violence in Mexico, much of which is fueled by American-supplied firearms, is a key driver of mass migration. Period. Full stop.
This is how we know that all of the immigration lies Republicans tell are rooted in xenophobia and racism. The fact that they’re still able to push so many lies is the failure of mainstream media, particularly on the right, and the Democrats’ inability to push back against these lies. (Not Texas Democrats—the ones in DC and non-border states.)
Further reading:
It doesn’t matter why JD Vance lied about the direction in which the Iron River flows. It matters most that the Republican base won’t fact-check and believe anything he says.
During the VP debate, Vance said many things and talked fast—like a car salesman. This particular statement wasn’t even the most egregious thing. He also claimed that he and Trump would solve housing with “mass deportation.”
Mass deportation is ethnic cleansing.
Those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it.
The Holocaust began with promises of mass deportation, which they called the “Madagascar Plan.”
The Armenian Genocide began with promises of mass deportation.
The Cambodian Genocide began with forced relocation.
Throughout history, we’ve seen time and time how genocides typically begin with relocations and promises of deportations.
It’s not a coincidence, considering JD Vance’s running mate, the top Republican on the ticket, has been known to keep a copy of Mein Kampf at his bedside.
Fascism happens gradually, then suddenly.
All of this propaganda is related.
The wrong direction of the Iron River, mass deportation, and immigrants eating pets—are all symptoms of a larger issue. This isn’t about border security, crime reduction, or even protecting American jobs. It’s about manipulating fear and stoking division for political gain.
Vance’s lie wasn’t just about guns. It was part of a coordinated narrative designed to turn public sentiment against migrants, making it easier to implement dangerous, dehumanizing policies. When fascism creeps in, it starts with lies, scapegoating, and the erosion of truth, and before long, those gradual shifts pave the way for something much more dangerous—sudden, irreversible change.
The rhetoric we’re seeing from Republicans in this election cycle has terrifying historical parallels, and if we don’t challenge it now, we risk repeating the darkest chapters of our past.
Fucking vote.
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November 1: Last day to early vote.
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And Mexico has sued US gun manufacturers. We're shocked Mexico would sue, but they don't do enough.
Great post and very frightening!