KABOOM! Texas Democrats Are Leaving Republicans In The Dust

Democratic surge, Republican stall.

That “KABOOM,” that was the sound of my head exploding, because as of writing this, the turnout for Democrats vs. Republicans in Texas is:

• Democrats: 544,894

• Republicans: 440,996

That’s right, the blue team is outpacing the red team by 100,000 votes in a midterm election, with five days of early voting left (including today). I think that’s a huge indicator of enthusiasm on the left.

Do we know who is going to win what yet? Nope, not a clue. But I wanted to take some time to zero in on some specific regions and look at the bigger picture(s). We have a few region-specific data analysts who are doing some amazing work, and we need to ooo and aww at it.

Harris County.

Levi from Victory Lab Consulting built a dashboard specifically for the Harris County Democratic turnout data. But the main part of this dashboard I want to look at is the demographic data.

Remember, we talked about how these big data companies get demographic data, they layer election data onregular consumer data, the stuff used for coupons and credit card offers. Age ranges, neighborhood demographics, census data, home ownership, magazine subscriptions, whether an area leans older or younger, and whether an area is urban or rural.

Here is why I think this is interesting and worth paying attention to. Right before early voting started, Jasmine Crockett released an internal poll from HOU that covered only Harris County. It was not a favorable poll for her, but I want you to look at the crosstabs.

It appears that the polls are surging in the groups where Talarico was most favorable, and slumping with the groups where Crockett was most favorable. Crockett will need to win Harris County to win the primary.

DFW.

Dallas County: 71,705 or 120% of 2022’s total turnout.

And maybe you’re thinking, that’s a surge for Crockett! And it might be. Maybe everyone in Dallas County has Crockett fever, but we don’t have a fancy dashboard for Dallas County. Only 23,822 Republicans have cast ballots in Dallas, yet Dallas is reliably blue.

Tarrant County: Democrats are up over Republicans by 15,000. Graph by Chris Tackett.

I absolutely expect Tarrant County to be a big, beautiful blue in November. Taylor Rehmet and Tim O’Hare gave Democrats here all the fuel they needed to take their county back.

Collin County:

• Democrats: 24,141 or 115% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 24,995 or 57% of 2022’s total

I’ve always said that after Tarrant, Collin County (in DFW) is next. I’m not sure if this will be the year, but if Democrats keep up this momentum in November, maybe they’ll flip a few seats.

Denton County:

• Democrats: 21,710 or 145% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 23,233 or 62% of 2022’s total

The Chair of the Denton County Democratic Party, Delia Parker-Mims, works harder with fewer resources than most people I know, and it looks like that work is really paying off this primary season.

Travis County.

The assumption is that because James Talarico is from Travis County, he will likely carry this county, but several of our statewide candidates are also locals here, including Gina Hinojosa and Sarah Eckhardt.

But are there actually Republicans in Travis County at all?

• Democrats: 47,830 or 81% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 12,547 or 53% of 2022’s total

While Democrats are still outpacing their previous year’s enthusiasm and should break their 2022 total in Travis County, the surge there isn’t as profound as it is in other major counties.

Bexar County.

Look, I have to be honest with y’all. Bexar County is one county I’ve struggled to really put my thumb on ideologically. Their city council has more DSA members than anywhere else in the state, but a bunch of Democratic legislators from here lean to the right. Regardless. Democrats here are still blowing Republicans out of the water.

This is really good for Bexar County Democrats, who have had some turnout struggles in recent elections, losing what should have been safe blue seats. I have no doubt in my mind that if they can make November look like the primary, they can win all those seats back, and then some.

Of course, we’re just speculating about November. We still have to put in A LOT of work before then.

Other Counties to watch out for.

Obviously, the major urban counties are the primary target, but if we’re looking to flip Texas in November, what counties are we looking at also possibly flipping or running up the margins in?

I mentioned Tarrant, Collin would be nice, but I wouldn’t call it an immediate “flip target.”

Then, there’s also Williamson County. Personally, I feel like Williamson County (WilCo) should have been blue already, but there’s still a lot of wiggle room there.

Williamson County:

• Democrats: 19,520 or 131% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 14,163 or 52% of 2022’s total

There are two State House seats in WilCo, one of which is especially close to being flipped. It can be flipped in this election. HD52, I’m sure we’ll talk about it plenty before November; it’s going to be a hot race.

Bell County:

• Democrats: 2,419 or 51% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 2,679 or 27% of 2022’s total

Bell, Bell, Bell, the forever thorn in my side. This county can be flipped; the two Texas House seats here can be flipped. However, this county has a lot of issues that lead to low voter turnout, including generational disenfranchisement, systemic racism, high rates of poverty, plus a military base.

Brazoria County:

• Democrats: 7,353 or 108% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 9,329 or 45% of 2022’s total

The Brazoria County Democratic Party has been working hard down here to change the culture of voting and the surrounding community, and it looks like it’s starting to pay off. What will it look like in November? We’ll have to wait and see.

Jefferson County:

• Democrats: 5,657 or 62% of 2022’s total

• Republicans: 4,624 or 45% of 2022’s total

Jefferson should have never even gone blue in the first place. Why it did is a very sad story about corruption, environmental racism, and too many people giving up. But we can give them hope again, maybe.

And while every county counts, it’s important to reiterate that 3-out-of-every-5 voters will come from one of these counties:

Let me point out something that’s even more interesting than Democrats surging.

Look at the Republican numbers. Not the raw totals. The percentages.

45%. 52%. 57%. 62%. That’s Republican turnout compared to 2022.

That’s voters who showed up two years ago deciding they are not particularly motivated this time around.

We can celebrate Democratic enthusiasm all day long, and yes, it’s real. But the sharper story might be on the other side of the ledger.

In county after county, Republican primary turnout is dramatically below its last midterm baseline. That’s a coalition issue.

Because when your base voters aren’t even showing up for a primary, in a state where primaries historically matter more than the general, that tells you something deeper is happening.

Maybe it’s complacency. Maybe it’s fatigue. Maybe it’s internal fractures. But whatever the cause, the gap isn’t just Democrats overperforming. It’s Republicans underperforming.

And that is a very different narrative than the one we’re used to telling about Texas.

Democrats are up by more than 100,000 votes statewide in a midterm primary.

Suburban counties are outperforming their 2022 totals. Republican turnout, in county after county, is lagging far behind its previous baseline.

Is that destiny? No. Is that a guarantee? Absolutely not. But it is a signal.

Because in Texas, statewide races are not won in Midland. They are not won in deep-blue Austin alone. They are won in the margins, in Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, Travis, and then in the ring counties where the electorate is shifting inch by inch.

Three out of every five voters will come from those major urban counties. If Democrats dominate there and compress margins in the surrounding suburbs, statewide math starts to move.

What we’re seeing right now is proof that something is moving.

Momentum is not a substitute for organizing. It’s an invitation to double down.

Five days of early voting left.

The work continues.

• February 27, 2026: Final Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

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