Keep Calm And Nuance On

The case for playing chess while everyone else plays checkers.

The biggest problem with modern politics is that no one understands nuance. A whole bunch of folks on social media are blabbing about how Texas Democrats “caved” or “gave in,” or some of the worst coming from blue state communists, who, honestly, need to shut the fuck up and go back to reading theory. All the doomerism and nihilism make me want to puke. Anyone who is talking like that is wrong on so many levels, and I’ll explain why.

1. Texas Democrats were never going to stop these maps completely. That was never the goal. A quorum break is essentially the same type of procedural tool as a filibuster. A filibuster can’t last forever, nor can a quorum break.

2. Texas Democrats are solely responsible for pushing California Democrats to redraw their maps. Those blue state liberals never had it in them before Texas Democrats, the most anti-fascist Democrats in America, brought national attention to how serious this COLD CIVIL WAR is, and showed them how to fight back. They should be thanked for that.

3. The maps the GOP drew in the first special session were based on the 2024 election turnout, when Democrats stayed home, setting themselves up for a dummymander. If these maps still go through, Republicans are likely to shoot themselves in the foot. (If they want to draw the maps thinner in retaliation for the quorum break, let them. It’ll only hurt them more.)

4. Republicans are complete morons. Idiots like Mitch Little and Cody Vasut have been all over TV talking about these maps being drawn on racial lines, not political ones. That will be used in court to prove these maps are racist and to have the maps thrown out.

Here’s the thing, politics isn’t a Marvel movie where the good guys crush the bad guys in two hours with a big explosion and a happy ending. It’s trench warfare. You take ground where you can, you hold it, and you make the other side bleed resources while you live to fight the next battle. That’s what Texas Democrats did.

They bought time. They forced the GOP to show its hand early, to put racist intent on the record, and to create evidence that will be Exhibit A in federal court. They turned what the Republicans thought would be a quick power grab into months of legal and political headaches. And they made national headlines doing it, which means when the lawsuits hit, they won’t be buried on page 37 of the Austin American-Statesman.

But none of that fits into the binary Twitter brain. People want instant wins, or they call it a loss. They want a total knock-out, or they scream “sellout.” They don’t get that sometimes you win by slowing the other guy down, by baiting him into mistakes, by making him so desperate for revenge that he ends up setting his own trap.

And this is precisely where the nuance gets lost. Folks only see the vote that didn’t happen, not the damage that did. If you think this quorum break was pointless, you’re either not paying attention or you don’t understand how power works in Texas.

The GOP is already weaker going into 2026 than they were in 2024, and these maps, if they survive, could end up doing more damage to them than any lawsuit ever could. And if the courts throw them out? That’s a twofer.

Will House Democrats be coming back?

All week long, we’ve heard will or won’t they come back? Then today, they released this statement.

It seems they may return for the second special session, which starts on Friday. I don’t know if all of them will be back on Friday, but there is a huge rally that’s supposed to take place in Austin on Saturday.

And here’s where the nuance will disappear again, people will treat their return as a win or loss without asking what’s actually possible in this session. Assume that next week the Legislature will be holding hearings and be back at it, with the maps, with the abortion pill ban, with banning THC for consenting adults, and maybe they’ll get around to flood relief. But truth be told, Republicans don’t care about a few dozen dead children. There’s no profit in that.

And maybe now that the quorum break is over, James Talarico will finally announce he’s running for Senate, or Governor, or joining the priesthood. We’ll have to wait and see. Hopefully, it’ll be soon because no one really liked Colin Allred in 2024, and the latest Emerson polls tell us that hasn’t changed much.

Talarico can flip Texas blue, with the help of a full slate of outstanding downballot candidates in the House and for Congress. And if Talarico is running for Senate, who will be our superstar for Governor? Joaquin Castro? Beto?

Honestly, I think either could win this cycle.

Look at what Trump is doing to America. Think about how bad it is now, it’s going to be ten times worse by next November. If that doesn’t motivate people to vote, I don’t know what will.

Texas has 8 zillion registered Democratic voters.

Surely, by now, you’ve all seen this misinformation meme floating around on social media about how in Texas, there are 8+ million registered Democrats, but only 6+ million registered Republicans. And you’ve probably seen an equal amount of misinformation-busters “yelling” about how in Texas, we don’t register by party.

Personally, I think it’s funny. Because, once again, there’s no nuance in the conversation. While we don’t register by party, if you pulled a Democratic ballot in the past, you’re on the list of Democratic primary voters. Same for Republicans. And yes, those numbers can be added up over multiple election cycles to give you a very good idea of how many people are in each party’s “likely voter” universe.

So no, there’s no official state list of “registered Democrats” and “registered Republicans.” But if you look at the last few decades of Texas voting data, the number of people who have voted in Democratic primaries (plus new voters who lean blue) does outnumber the folks who’ve shown up for Republican primaries. That’s not fantasy, that’s math. But the nuance gets drowned out in the noise. Having the numbers means nothing if you don’t have the votes.

The problem is that the meme makes it sound like Texas has a built-in Democratic majority ready to sweep elections, when in reality, our problem isn’t registration, it’s turnout. We do outnumber them on paper. We don’t outvote them when it counts. And that’s the whole ballgame.

We need to convince them that their vote matters. Then, we have to persuade them to vote. When we can do that, we win.

And that’s the part that drives me nuts.

We’ve got the numbers. We’ve got the candidates. We’ve got the receipts showing exactly how the GOP rigs the game, and still, too many people would rather whine on the internet than put in the work to win.

Politics is nuance. It’s messy, frustrating, and rarely gives you the instant gratification you think you deserve. The other side counts on us to miss that, to quit early, to eat our own, and to stay home on Election Day.

So stop acting like every fight has to be the final battle. Start seeing the long game. Show up. Organize. Donate. Knock doors. Drag three friends to the polls. Do the boring, unsexy, relentless work that actually flips states.

Because here’s the truth. The only thing standing between Texas and a blue wave isn’t voter registration. It’s whether enough of us give a damn to turn that paper advantage into a real one.

And that’s not a question of numbers. That’s a question of will.

• August 15: Last day of special session

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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