Meet The Candidates: Tyler Smith For Texas State House District 138
Houston's best shot at flipping a Republican seat.
This series is called Meet The Candidates. Over the next six months, I’ll spotlight a handful of Democratic races each month, mainly in the Legislature and in Congress. These aren’t endorsements. They’re introductions, a way to understand who’s running, the districts they hope to represent, and what’s at stake for people across Texas.
Who is Tyler Smith?
Tyler Smith is a Houston-area Democrat. He grew up in Houston, and he says that he learned everything he needed to know about politics on a baseball diamond. His stepdad was a Little League coach and drilled into him to play hard, play with honor, and not to quit until the last out. Smith later volunteered as a coach at MLB’s Urban Youth Academy, and also as a cousin in the big leagues.
But it isn’t just baseball. Smith has built a career around things that are hard and things that take honor. As deputy regional director for Everytown for Gun Safety, he got conservative Republicans to vote for gun safety measures.
Smith attended Texas Southern University, earned a degree in Political Science, served as a Presidential Fellow under Biden, and worked as an executive assistant for Senator Jon Ossoff. He recently completed the Obama Foundation’s Leaders Program.
The district.
If anybody tells you that this district is flippable, they would be absolutely right. In fact, the only reason it hasn’t already flipped was the Democrats’ poor performance in 2022 and 2024.
HD138 is majority-minority. Anglo residents make up about 37% of the population. Hispanic residents are the largest single group at around 42%, with Asian residents at roughly 12% and Black residents at about 10%. Nearly half the district speaks a language other than English at home.
The district is also relatively educated and employed, with about 42% of adults holding a bachelor’s degree or higher, well above the state average of 33%. The workforce skews the private sector and blue-collar trades. These are people who work hard and commute long. Over 25% of workers spend 30 minutes or more just getting to the job.
Per capita income sits above the state average at roughly $52,000, and nearly a quarter of households earn over $200K. But almost 40% of renters are spending 35% or more of their income on rent. Home values average over $525,000, compared to $340,000 statewide. Much of the housing stock was built between 1970 and 1989, meaning older infrastructure, more flood risk, and mounting maintenance costs.
In other words, people here are doing okay on paper, but they’re feeling it.
And Republicans held on here in 2024, thanks to the Hispanic vote going toward Trump. But seeing where polling has been, and where it’s headed, we shouldn’t expect that to happen again.
In 2024, Lacey Hull beat the Democrat 57-43. Trump carried the district 53-45 over Harris. Ted Cruz held it 50.5-47.
So what does a Democrat need to do to win?
Turn out the Hispanic vote (obviously). Hispanic residents make up over 41% of the population, but only 37% of the voting-age population, and Spanish-surname voter registration sits at just 21% of total registered voters. That gap is a political opportunity the size of a freight train. If Smith can close even part of that registration and turnout deficit, the math shifts.
Win the persuadable middle. This isn’t a deep-red district demographically. Colin Allred got 47% here in the US Senate race. The district consistently outperforms statewide Democratic averages. Voters here are reachable.
Make it local. Housing costs, flooding, commute times, and prescription drug prices are issues in HD138. This district has real infrastructure age and real housing pressure. If Smith can connect his platform to the lived experience of the 40% of renters getting bled dry every month, that’s a message with teeth.
Don’t cede the education fight. Over a third of households in this district have school-age kids, and the district’s public school enrollment rate is solid. Abbott’s voucher scheme is a direct threat to neighborhood schools in a working-majority-minority community.
Smith is running in a district that’s demographically trending away from Republicans and economically ripe for a message about affordability and accountability. The question is whether he can build the coalition to make the math work on Election Day.
The incumbent.
Lacey Hull.
Ol’ Lacey.
Look, we shouldn’t be slut shaming anyone. Especially regarding actions they took years ago, which were leaked across the press and certain left-leaning blogs. Of course, I will always advise anyone to practice what they preach. If Texas Republicans want to control the private sex lives of the people of Texas, they shouldn’t be surprised when Texans call out the hypocrisy when they step out on their marriages with multiple of their married co-workers.
It’s not really important to reminisce about the past, but I will say this, circa 2020, there were a lot of nice old ladies who found out what the term “pegging” was. And that will always be funny.
Otherwise, Hull’s time in the Legislature has been fairly rank-and-file Republican, other than making it harder for CPS to get involved with children who are being abused. There are rumors that Hull’s very messy and public divorce also involved allegations that led to CPS involvement, and she took that really personally, and wrote these laws out of her emotions, rather than what was best for Texas children.
In Tyler Smith’s own words.
Below are some questions I asked Smith, based on previous reader polls, along with his answers.
Q: Do you support a statewide minimum wage increase to at least $15/hour?
Yes, there’s no reason we live in the 8th largest economy in the world… not the US but the world, and we have people who can’t afford basic needs because of our refusal to pay people a livable wage.
Q: Should Texas end tax subsidies and abatements for large corporations?
Texas should not subsidize large corporations that pay zero dollars in taxes and are ripping the everyday Texan off while at it. I believe in tax subsidies, but only for corporations that take care of their workers.
Q: Do you oppose school vouchers and efforts to privatize public education?
Yes, public schools are the backbone of our communities, and we must do everything to protect them.
Q: Should Texas end tax breaks and regulatory loopholes for oil and gas companies, including exemptions from emissions reporting and waste disposal standards?
Texas should strictly enforce regulations on oil and gas companies to ensure they contribute their fair share of taxes and comply with all federal and state laws to safeguard our environment.
Q: Do you support closing or downsizing state prisons and redirecting that funding to community-based alternatives like mental health care, housing, and youth programs?
Yes, I firmly believe that we should prioritize addressing the root causes of crime in our state. By preventing violence before it occurs, we can create a stronger and more harmonious community. Additionally, providing individuals with the essential support they require, such as employment opportunities, housing, healthcare, and food security, significantly reduces the likelihood of crime within our society.
Q: Bonus Question: What does being a Democrat mean to you in 2026?
Being a Democrat in 2026 means having a backbone and standing for something. As we live in a country where the opposing party’s only policy agenda is how high can I jump for Donald Trump, being a Democrat means actually standing up for everyday people and what is right.
Tyler Smith is running because HD138 is winnable, and he’s built exactly the kind of career that could win it.
He knows how to talk to people who don’t already agree with him. He’s done it professionally. He’s got the coalition-building credentials, the policy chops, and the kind of personal story that actually lands with working families in a majority-minority district that’s tired of being taken for granted.
The district is ready. The demographics say so. The economics say so. The only question left is execution.
You can learn more about Tyler Smith on his website, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter.
April 27, 2026: Last day to register to vote (Democratic primary runoff elections)
April 28, 2026: Last day of early voting (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 2, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 2, 2026: Election day! (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 15, 2026: Last day to apply to vote by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 18, 2026: First day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 22, 2026: Last day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Election day! (Democratic primary runoff elections)
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Thanks, Michelle! I shared this on bsky. I'm pissed that the whcad will be distracting Texans from our city & local elections on Saturday. (hope I did the right thing & it wasn't a repost from yesterday; I have company & it's crazy here)