Virginia began early voting in September. By October 11, Virginia recorded more than 519,000 early ballots, compared with about 260,000 on the same day in 2022. This means their turnout (so far) is nearly double what it was in the last midterm election.
In Michigan, absentee ballots can be mailed in and submitted in drop boxes. Already, 6% of registered voters have cast a ballot, and Michigan is up 20% compared to this same point in 2022.
Early voting has also begun in Ohio, where 200,000 people have already voted in person. That’s four times higher than the 2022 midterm.
In Georgia, the Georgia Secretary of State said the Midterm early voting turnout record was shattered last week.
Everywhere, voting is up substantially compared to 2022. Double. Quadruple.
But what does it mean?
Republicans expected a red wave in 2022, and it never materialized. They picked up only nine House seats, Democrats held the Senate, and Republicans flipped only one governor’s race, while Democrats flipped three.
Why did Republicans expect to have a red wave in 2022? And why did it fizzle out?
In every midterm after WWII, the president’s party lost an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats. And Biden wasn’t exactly popular. So, models built on that precedent predicted Democrats would lose 45 seats.
Because polls previously underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020, Republican-leaning pollsters overinflated Republicans’ chances in 2022.
Why did Republicans underperform in the 2022 midterm? Mostly because of Dobbs. Partly because of the election denial.
Democrats only overperformed in swing seats and statewide races with weak GOP nominees. Everywhere else, like Texas, they had a bad midterm.
But what does it mean for 2026?
Honestly, it means we’re all here together speculating and hoping that it means something good. We can talk about the signs and indicators, but until Steve Kornacki rolls up his sleeves on election night, we’re just guessing.
This Marist Poll, what does it mean?
This morning, Marist Poll dropped its latest. Talarico up by 2, Abbott up by 4, Trump disapproval at 54% in Texas. But the crosstabs have everyone losing their minds.
Basically, this poll’s sample is +14 (R), which is redder than Texas was in 2024. Republicans won in 2024 with +12. Even with a redder sample, it still shows Talarico ahead. This could be a really bad sign for Republicans.
Caveat. Marist’s likely-voter model leans on voting history, and Republicans say they “always” vote at a much higher rate than Democrats. If, in 2026, Democrats turn out people who usually don’t vote, the model can’t see them. And in Texas, that’s a lot of people.
Also, this should be noted, and I don’t think it’s been widely discussed. In this Marist Poll, 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans.
The question now is who is going to show up?
Is enthusiasm a thing?
Most Texans don’t even vote. When 44% of registered voters stay home in a critical election (like a mid-term), the results depend on which half showed up. Habitual voters (like me and you) show up no matter what. Occasional voters show up when they’re scared, angry, or excited.
Trump has given the American people a lot to fear.
Texas Republicans have given Texans a lot to be angry over.
And the thought of finally flipping Texas blue has excited many people. Maybe?
On the other hand, Texas Republicans may be scared to lose power. Fear could drive them out. They’d rather pay the high property taxes, live without healthcare and access to water, and pay $300 electric bills than vote for someone with a (D) next to their name. The scary commercials from Republicans every ten minutes will terrify them into going to the polls.
We don’t have to guess. The Texas Politics Project polled registered voters on their enthusiasm this year.
Texas Democrats are slightly more enthusiastic about voting this year, while Texas Republicans are substantially less enthusiastic.
63% of Democrats rated their enthusiasm 10 out of 10, compared with 50% of Republicans and 41% of Independents.
But really, enthusiasm is only a feeling. Nothing is real until everyone casts their ballot.
But what if the early surge is Republicans?
Remember, for years, Republicans said early voting was cheating, but then they figured out that forcing their aging base to only vote on election day was problematic. And then, last week, we talked about how Tim Dunn’s mouthpiece was already crying about the midterm results:
One interesting point I thought he made on his podcast was telling his audience to vote on the first or second day of early voting. It was the first time I think I ever heard a Republican say that.
Last year (far-right-leaning), The Federalist published this article, which talks about various Conservative groups’ push to get Republicans to vote early.
This is starting to feel like a roller coaster. Don’t worry. Even if Republicans have convinced their base that it’s now cheating to vote on Election Day and you have to vote on the first day of early voting, it’ll all even out in the end.
The polls are on our side. Enthusiasm is on our side. But right now, we’re just making guesses. The only thing that counts is showing up.
Here’s why it’s looking pretty bleak for Republicans.
Kroger announced yesterday it’s laying off 37% of its workforce and replacing them with AI over the next three years. In September, employers added only 29,000 jobs, which was far below what was forecast. Wage growth has slowed to its lowest level since May 2021.
Gas is averaging $3.82 in Texas, below the national average of $4.36. Consumer prices, including food, are up 3.5% over the year. 30-year fixed mortgage rates are averaging 7.28%. Texas is currently leading the nation in home foreclosures.
In the Marist poll crosstabs, 58% of Democrats said their family finances were worse off this year, compared to 19% of Republicans.
All of these things in Texas that are broken, and in Congress under Trump, are broken because of Republican policy. The only way to change that is by voting.
Early voting starts next Monday, October 19.
You can vote anytime between then and Friday, October 30. You can also vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 3. You’ll have to find polling hours and locations in your county (Google).
There’s also ONE weekend of early voting. So, if that’s the only time you can get off work, you can also vote on Saturday/Sunday, October 24/25.
9.6 million registered voters didn’t show up in Texas in 2022. Let’s make sure they do in 2026.
20 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
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*precedent