Rallying Behind Kamala Harris: The Key To A Democratic Win In November

How unity and consensus can secure victory for the Democrats.

Jul 22, 2024

Allan Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the incumbent party’s presidential candidate will win or lose the next election.Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984.

Lichtman has been described as the “Nostradamus of American Politics.” Yesterday, when President Biden announced he wasn’t seeking reelection and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, Lichtman explained that Biden stepping down means the Democrats lose the incumbency key but can retain the contest key if they unite behind Kamala Harris as the consensus nominee.

During an hour-long YouTube livestream last night, Lichtman stressed the historical significance of retaining the contest key to avoid a party brawl and increase the chances of winning the election.

In other words, the Nostradamus of American Politics said that if Democrats want to win this thing, unity and consensus are of the utmost importance.

Democrats appear to be united, excited, and reinvigorated.

In the hours after Biden endorsed Harris for the next president, big names poured in, offering their endorsements, too. That included Bill and Hillary Clinton, Secretaries Buttigieg, Cardona, Granholm, and Raimondo, at least 33 of 47 Democratic senators, at least 159 of 212 House Democratic members, at least 18 of the 26 Democratic state and territorial governors, all 57 state and territory party chairs, all DNC delegates for Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, SEIU, American Federation of Teachers, and too many other organizations to list, and countless celebrities.

Seeing these hundreds of endorsements pour in for Vice President Harris in one day, something that we would typically play out over a year, is fascinating and undoubtedly played a massive part in the excitement growing around Harris.

As of 11 AM this morning, Vice President Harris has raised $90 million in ActBlue since Biden’s endorsement at 1:15 PM yesterday. She’ll likely have his $100 million in 24 hours, making her haul the largest single-day fundraising haul in political history.

Endorsements from Texas.

Here is a list of Texas politicians who have already endorsed Vice President Harris:

TX07 - Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher
TX16 - Congresswoman Veronica Escobar
TX20 - Congressman Joaquin Castro
TX29 - Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia
TX30 - Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett
TX33 - Congressman Marc Veasey
TX35 - Congressman Greg Casar
SD14 - Senator Sarah Eckhardt
SD23 - Senator Royce West
SD26 - Senator Jose Menendez
HD22 - Representative Christian Manuel
HD27 - Representative Ron Reynolds
HD46 - Representative Sheryl Cole
HD49 - Representative Gina Hinojosa
HD90 - Representative Ramon Romero
HD100 - Representative Venton Jones
HD101 - Representative Chris Turner
HD102 - Representative Ana-Maria Ramos
HD107 - Representative Victoria Neave
HD109 - Representative Carl Sherman
HD115 - Representative Julie Johnson
HD116 - Representative Trey Martinez Fischer
HD135 - Representative Jon Rosenthal
HD136 - Representative John Bucy
HD137 - Representative Gene Wu
HD140 - Representative Armondo Walle
HD145 - Representative Christina Morales
HD147 - Representative Jolanda Jones

If you don’t see your elected Democrat on this list, it’s time to call them, express your support for Kamala Harris, and tell them how essential unity is if we want to beat Trump in November. If you aren’t sure who your representation is, you can find out here.

What about the Texas delegates going to the Democratic National Convention?

All DNC delegates for Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have pledged to support Vice President Harris at the convention, which is how we show unity.

There are 273 DNC delegates in Texas.

It’s important to remember that many of our Democratic elected officials will be delegates at the DNC, so they must express their support now.

Many Texas delegates, including all of the delegates in TX21 (Chip Roy’s district), have already endorsed Harris.

I could not find a list of Texas DNC delegates, although I’m sure it’s out there. At least some of them are likely readers of Lone Star Left.

Right now, more than anything, the party needs unity. An open convention could lead to chaos, hurt our chances at unity, and open the door for a Trump win in November.

Even with the Kamala avalanche of endorsements we’ve seen in the last 24 hours, it’s essential to recognize the importance of her nomination and what it would mean to push another candidate. Here’s what is at risk:

The Black vote.
The woman votes.

It’s important to note that many likely contenders have already endorsed Harris, although Marianne Williams has been making noise about throwing her hat in the ring. Fortunately, most of the party views her as a crazy cat lady, and she wouldn’t get far.

The DNC has to choose before August 7th or lose Ohio.

Due to some asshole law made by Republicans in Ohio, Democrats must have a roll call vote before August 7 to ensure Kamala makes the ballot in Ohio. This is why unity before the convention is necessary, and an open convention is out of the question.

If they can’t achieve that unity and can’t organize a roll call vote by then, Democrats will forfeit the Electoral College votes in Ohio.

The DNC starts in Chicago on August 19.

So, again, unity is everything.

The path to victory for the Democrats lies in unity and consensus.

Allan Lichtman’s model underscores the importance of the contest key, and the swift and overwhelming endorsements for Kamala Harris show that the party understands this necessity. With Harris’s historic fundraising haul and widespread support, the momentum is clearly in her favor. However, every Democrat must rally behind her to avoid an open convention and ensure a unified front against Donald Trump in November.

The stakes are high, and every endorsement, every vote, and every voice matters. As we move towards the Democratic National Convention, remember that unity isn’t just a strategy—it’s our most potent weapon. The Democrats can make history again, but only if they stand together. Let’s ensure Kamala Harris has the support she needs to lead the party to victory.

The time to act is now. Call your representatives, support your delegates, and show the nation that the Democratic Party is united, strong, and ready to win.

August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!