Record Turnout And GOP Desperation

High turnout favors Democrats, sparking Republican panic across Texas.

13 Days Left.

The daily results from the Secretary of State (SOS) were slow in 2020, but they are twice as slow this year. Some counties publish live results on their websites, but not all.

Republicans have emailed me this week, attempting to gaslight me into believing that the record polling we’re seeing at the polls is excitement for Trump. But I’m not convinced. For one, Texas has moved left in nearly every election over the last two decades. And two, this is the first presidential election in modern history in which white Texans are not in the majority.

While MAGA has spent the last year bending over backward trying to convince America that Trump will win the Black and Latino vote, there is no data to back that up. When we look at the data from the exit polls in Texas over the last several elections, we know:

• The majority of Hispanic voters vote blue.

• The majority of Black voters vote blue.

• The majority of Asian voters vote blue.

This includes the exit polls from 2020 and 2022. There’s no evidence that people of color are suddenly willing to vote for the party of white supremacy.

Historically speaking, we know that a more engaged electorate equates to a more Democratic electorate. So, this record turnout we’re seeing across Texas will benefit Democrats.

How are things looking so far?

At the end of Day 2 of early voting, with some counties still not reporting, 1,919,408 Texans have already cast their vote. That means, so far, we’ve been averaging nearly 1 million voters per day.

Both Harris and Dallas County are still lagging behind their total turnout for Day 2 in 2020, but not far behind, and I think after Kamala Harris’ rally on Friday, we’ll see a big jump in Harris County. Dallas County polls have been closing all week at 5:00 p.m., but starting this weekend and next week, they’ll be open until 7:00 p.m. Because of the extra hours, we will probably see a higher turnout next week in Dallas. We aren’t worried about either of these counties, they are doing great.

Tarrant County has seen record turnout every day so far, including today. I live in Tarrant, so I’ve been getting texts from candidates and poll workers about how excited they are about turnout. The total turnout in Tarrant through Day 2 is 129,990, about 6,000 higher than in 2020.

As I mentioned last night, Bexar County is seeing record in-person voter turnout. However, their mail-in rate is lower. That should be expected since we had COVID-19 to deal with in 2020.

Travis, Collin, and Denton Counties are all seeing a surge in turnout. So far, they all have record turnout through Day 2 of early voting. Travis County is blue, but Collin and Denton are trending blue. We should expect Collin County to flip this election cycle. Denton County may come in and surprise us. Over 15% of registered voters in Denton County have already cast a ballot. From 2016 to 2020, Denton County moved +8 points to the left. A flip would be imminent if they move another +8 points this year.

Delia Parker-Mims, the Denton County Democratic Party Chair, intends to run for the Texas Democratic Party Chair position in 2026. Flipping Denton County in 2024 would give her a huge advantage.

Fort Bend County is also seeing record turnout. By Day 2 in 2020, 41K votes had been cast, and by Day 2 in 2024, 63K votes had been cast.

Record voter turnout in these urban and suburban counties is the key to flipping Texas.

Depending on how long you’ve followed me, you probably already know I’ve been preaching about increasing turnout in Texas’ major counties for a long time. Rural Texas is red and losing population. A blue Texas will only come when our most populous and most diverse areas show up and vote. So far, that’s what we’re seeing. That should give you a reason to feel optimistic.

While most counties are seeing record-voter turnout, not all are.

El Paso County’s turnout numbers are down compared to Day 2 in 2020. On Day 2 in 2020, El Paso had 52K voters; on Day 2 in 2024, it had 39K voters. This is the only major county in Texas that has seen this big of a drop. I’ll look into it more this week. It’s only Day 2, so we shouldn’t be worried yet.

Turnout in the border counties also seems lower this year than in 2020, which could spell bad news for Democrats in crucial seats. Republican billionaires have been dumping vast amounts of cash into South Texas, and Democrats have struggled to keep a foothold there for years. Again, it isn’t time to panic yet, and the Rio Grande Valley only accounts for around 4% of all Texas voters. Hypothetically, we could lose the RGV and still flip Texas, but we don’t want to lose anything. It’s something I will be watching closely in the next two weeks.

Emmerson Collehe and the Hill dropped some new Texas polls today.

They’re showing Colin Allred and Ted Cruz within the margin of error.

They’re also showing that Trump has a +7 point lead on Harris.

That doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Ticket splitting has not been a thing in Texas outside of the RGV, and Trump only won Texas by +5 points in 2020. Trump has lost support since 2020, not gained it.

Nexstar Media Group PAC did this poll. They have spent millions on GOP races in this election cycle. Not only that they are also one of the ones manipulating polls to get the results they want. It even said on the pollster page they intentionally targeted a certain group. They are also a PAC that funnels dark money through it. According to this poll, approximately 57% of the 815 surveyed are 50+ years old.

Remember, the only polls that matter are at the ballot box. Ignore the noise and vote.

Ryan Data also dropped his Day 2 analysis. Ryan Data is a Republican data guy, but his analysis has been relatively reliable in the past.

Here is who has voted through Day 2 based on their primary history.

Source

This isn’t surprising nor tells us what to expect come election day.

Because Republicans have had control over our government for the last 30 years, Republicans almost always vote in primary elections. Democrats? Not so much. In fact, over the previous few decades, Democrats have been ultra-focused on the top of the ticket, staying home in most other elections.

According to Ryan Data, 39% of voters through Day 2 have a Republican primary history, 27% have a Democratic primary history, and 31% have no primary history at all.

• 7% are new voters.

• 24% only vote in general elections, which tend to favor Democrats more.

• Plus, how many Republican primary voters are Democrats in rural areas? Republicans have been trying to turn our elections into a closed primary system to prevent Democrats from swaying Republican polls. That number could be as high as 10%.

• How many Republican primary voters are now never-Trumpers?

At this point, we can only speculate, but higher voter turnout in urban and suburban areas will always favor Democrats.

The Republican’s internal polling must be bad because Ken Paxton is pulling out all the stops to set up a challenge to the results of the 2024 election in Texas.

Yesterday, Attorney General Ken Paxton and Secretary of State Jane Nelson (R) filed a lawsuit against US Secretary of Homeland Security (DHS) Alejandro Mayorkas, Director of US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) Ur M. Jaddou, and their respective agencies, challenging the federal government’s refusal to provide citizenship status information.

Texas verifies the citizenship status of registered voters on the state’s voter rolls with information from the Texas Department of Public Safety, which maintains data on citizenship status from Texas driver’s licenses and IDs from DHS and USCIS.

Paxton claims they cannot verify the citizenship status of over 450,000 voters because they registered to vote without a Texas driver’s license or ID from DHS or USCIS. Ken Paxton is trying to disenfranchise nearly half a million Texan voters in the middle of an election.

Paxton also claims that “voting machines in deep blue counties are faulty.”

Last week, Paxton launched a bullshit investigation against ActBlue.

Ken Paxton and Texas Republicans are in full-blown panic as every indication shows Texas turning blue.

Texas is moving left, and this election could be a tipping point.

Record turnout in urban and suburban counties suggests that Democratic momentum is real. Despite Republican efforts to suppress the vote or cast doubt on the process, the people's will is showing through.

Higher engagement among Democratic voters, particularly in the most populous and diverse regions, signals a strong push toward flipping Texas blue. While Republicans, led by Ken Paxton, scramble to challenge results and undermine voter confidence, Texans must stay focused. The only poll that truly matters is the one at the ballot box. Every vote counts. Let’s continue to drive turnout and make history in 2024.

• October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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