Texas Day 3 Early Voting Surge: All Gas, No Brakes
Historic early voting numbers push Texas closer to a potential upset.
Only 12 days left.
As we are now on Day 4 of early voting, we have the turnout figures for Day 3, and we’ll discuss those, but first, I want to talk about what’s happening outside of Texas.
Because of the Electoral College, the entire fate of our nation is dependent on how people in these seven states vote:
Of course, Texas could flip this year, but the political powers in DC aren’t riding on it. Instead, we’re placing our fate in the hands of the people of faraway places (like Arizona and Georgia).
Unlike Texas, many of these other states have closed primary systems. In a closed primary system, you must register as a Republican, Democrat, or Independent. Then, you can only vote in the party’s primary system. There are pros and cons to that, which we won’t discuss now, but in the General Election, it allows us to see who is voting. (In Texas, it’s more of a guessing game.)
The numbers we’re seeing across the country are encouraging for Democrats.
The numbers below represent who voted based on the party they are registered with, not necessarily how they voted. However, they give us a lot of insight.
Pennsylvania:
Arizona:
So, as you can see, Democrats are way up in Pennsylvania but are struggling to keep up in Arizona. However, the polling for the swing states seems to show that Independents are heavily leaning toward Harris.
Remember, Democrats need 270s Electoral College votes to win the White House.
A lot can change between now and November 5. And if Texas flips, it’s curtains for the orange one.
And if you’re anything like me, you’re probably wondering, how is this election even this close? After this election, we need to have a broader conversation about why we have the Electoral College (hint: it has to do with a time when certain people were labeled 3/5ths of a person) and why we need to do away with it.
It’s a little nerve-wracking, but we must trust our fellow humans in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere. We trust they will recognize the danger of another Trump term and do the right thing.
Ultimately, even if Kamala Harris wins, Austin will be the greatest danger to the Texans. This is why flipping the Texas House or coming close to it is essential in this election.
Check out Representative James Talarico on MeidasTouch yesterday talk about how close we are to turning Texas blue:
Day 3 Early Voting updates from Texas.
Y’all, we are crushing it. The turnout numbers are fantastic and indicative a long awaited blue wave. Of course, we don’t count our chickens before they hatch. So, let’s get into it.
The total Day 3 turnout for in-person and mail-in voting is underreported because of Bell County and a few other smaller, rural counties. But even with the underreporting, we’re sitting at 2,808,126 votes through Day 3.
That’s more than 900K votes per day, which means 15% of all registered voters in Texas have already cast their ballots. Moreover, the trends we’re seeing in the largest urban and suburban counties have not let up.
Harris County has now reached 353.4K+ total in-person Early Votes, breaking its record for Day 3 in 2020.
From a friend of Lone Star Left,
, in 2022, the urban counties had a surge of voting during week 2 of early voting. Next week will be interesting if we see that same pattern in 2024, which James is predicting.
Another thing happening in the DFW Metroplex that I didn’t expect to see is Tarrant County outpacing Dallas County in early voter turnout.
Dallas County:
Monday: 56K
Tuesday: 56K
Wednesday: 54K
Tarrant County:
Monday: 58K
Tuesday: 57K
Wednesday: 55K
Why is this? There are about 150K more voters in Dallas County than Tarrant County. Both counties are now majority-minority counties. But Tarrant County voters seem to be amped up for this election.
There are some critical races in Tarrant this year, even beyond Congress and the State House. Laura Leeman is running to flip a Commissioner’s seat, and Patrick Moses is attempting to unseat Sheriff Bill Waybourne (the worst Sheriff in Texas). Tarrant’s high turnout could have big implications for their county government.
Bexar County is also continuing to see a record turnout.
In-person votes in Bexar County:
Day 3, 2024: 142,791
Day 3, 2020: 108,976
As of yesterday, 12.23% of registered voters in Bexar County have shown up.
From Chron: Republican super PAC warns the end may be near for Ted Cruz
Williamson County is one county that has a flippable House seat. Jennie Birkholz is running to unseat the wife of Dan Patrick’s Chief of Staff. 84,429 Williamson County voters have already cast their ballot, or 18.96% of registered voters in WilCo. Remember, higher voter turnout typically favors Democrats.
Here are the numbers for all of the top Texas counties at the end of Day 3:
Denton County is blowing everyone else out of the water. El Paso County is still lower than we want to see, but they had a much bigger day yesterday, so they’re starting to catch up.
The turnout in rural counties has been compatible, but in the last several elections, we’ve seen rural Texas show up to the polls in higher numbers at the beginning of early voting and then fizzle out.
If you have any specific county you want to hear more about in the next update, please message me and let me know.
You can check out these numbers on the Secretary of State’s website: Here.
Beyonce will open for Kamala Harris at her Houston rally on Friday.
Of course, it makes a lot of sense. Beyonce is from Houston. It’s pretty exciting.
Meanwhile, the Harris County GOP has decided to hold a counter-rally at… Gallery Furniture. Seriously.
The momentum is undeniable.
The numbers don’t lie—Texas is on the brink of a historic shift. We’re seeing a groundswell of support in urban and suburban counties, and even in traditionally red areas, Democrats are making waves. But there’s no time to coast now.
This is an “all gas, no brakes” moment. Every vote matters every race is crucial, and every day between now and Election Day will define our future. We can’t let up. The stakes couldn’t be higher, not just for Texas but for the entire country. So keep showing up, keep pushing, and let’s make this the year Texas turns blue.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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Thanks for a very informative article. Hope you will provide this analysis after each day of early voting.
My wife and I have made 8 abortive attempts to vote early in San Antonio but had to leave because of long lines. We tried another location today, which was supposed to have shorter line, but it was still too long. We did not see such voter enthusiasm in 2020. I am not complaining, as I agree with you that when more people vote, then Democrats typically do better. We will try again tomorrow to vote.
In Dallas County the open hours for early voting from Oct. 21-25 was 8:00am-5:00pm. Saturday, Oct. 26 hours 7:00am-7:00pm; Sunday, Oct. 27 hours noon-6:00pm. Next week hours 7:00am-7:00 pm. I don't remember Dallas County ever having these kind of hours for voting. I am hopeful that the early voting numbers will rise significantly.