Texas Republicans Know They Are Losing Ground - Embrace Extremism Anyway

I watched the Texas GOP, so you didn't have to. Here is my takeaway.

This week, the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) held its 2024 convention. I watched a lot of it, but not all. There are roughly 130 hours of live stream video online from this week. If you missed my previous articles about the convention:

• I’m Watching The Texas GOP Convention, So You Don’t Have To - Part One

• I’m Watching The Texas GOP Convention, So You Don’t Have To - Part Two

• I’m Watching The Texas GOP Convention, So You Don’t Have To - Part Three

We can discuss their policies and draconian ideas, but first, I want to spotlight the fractures and internal turmoil I witnessed over the last week. Texas Democrats have an excellent opportunity to pressure these cracks, further weakening the Texas GOP.

A recurring theme emerged during their Committees and on the floor during the General Session. A vocal faction pushed the party to go further right, while a smaller subsection pled them to take more moderate positions.

Here are some of the debates where I saw this:

• Whether or not to ban pregnant women from traveling in Texas (because they could be traveling to get an abortion).

• Taking the phrase “homosexuality is an abnormal lifestyle” out of their platform. (They did not.)

• Bans on IVF.

• Texit (secession).

I repeatedly heard Republicans talk about how these far-right positions would give the Democrats talking points, would cost them votes, and didn’t reflect the mainstream. If you want to see some of that, I’ve posted those clips to YouTube and Twitter. This would be a good example:

Many Republicans are recognizing that they are on the losing side. They are most scared of the vote in urban counties outnumbering them and the state turning blue. They’re right. Looking at the trends, you see how urban counties increasingly dominate Texas politics.

Why Texas Democrats Must Focus On An Urban First Strategy And Embrace Progressivism

The fact of the matter is that Texas Democrats have the voting numbers to flip this state this year. They just don’t vote. Why? That’s another topic, but Republicans see the trends, too. Here are the largest ten counties by registered voters and swing in 2020.

Almost all of them are blue and only getting bluer. The ones that weren’t blue (like Collin County) will likely be blue this November.

Combine that with the rapid population losses in rural Texas. Between 2010 and 2020, more than half of all counties in Texas lost population, and all those losses were in rural areas. We also know that over 95% of the state's growth was attributed to the increase in people of color. This matters because when we look at exit polls, we know that most people of color vote blue.

2022 CNN Exit Poll

2020 CNN Exit Polls

Republicans will lose Texas. It’s only a matter of time. Maybe 2026. Maybe 2030. They see it. The writing is on the wall.

Will Texas Ever Turn Blue? Here's What The Data Tells Us:

That’s why, at this convention, so many Republicans spoke out and tried to get some of the authoritarian planks taken off of their platform and legislative priorities. Like the Republican woman who compared Republicans to the Taliban:

In all of these exchanges, seemingly rational women spoke up about how awful these ideas were, and every time, she was met by men who mansplained why she was wrong.

Republicans know they are on the losing side, and when confronted with it by their peers, many of them answered something religious about God or their soul. They understand that the extreme policies are going to push away mainstream voters and deliver them into the hands of Democrats, but they are being guided by “their” religion.

Their proposed platform calls for the Bible in schools and electoral changes that would lock Democrats out of statewide office. Other planks call abortion homicide and gender-transition care “child abuse.”

Related from the San Antonio Report: Bexar County Republicans brace for the future as state GOP leaders ramp up fights with moderates

The Maga faction of the Texas GOP has gone completely off of the rails, and the few moderates left are fighting to bring back normalcy. The moderates are losing.

In the long run, it’ll be all for the better. Democrats are trending toward a complete political takeover by 2030 without the Republicans’ destruction, but their destruction will only help us move quickly.

The inner-party fighting isn’t the only major problem with the Texas GOP.

According to the Texas Tribune, In its most recent federal filing in April, the party reported having $2.7 million on hand — three-quarters of what it had at the same point in the 2020 cycle, and much of the funds reported by the party in April have already been spent to cover the estimated $1.8 million cost of this week's convention — which is projected to operate at a $38,000 loss for the party, executive committee members were told at a Wednesday financial briefing.

This is the worst off Texas Republicans have been for decades. They’ve let the corruption and extremism take over their party. It’s destroying them.

The real-world impacts of the GOP policies will have crippling effects across the state, even more so than there are now. Remember, Republicans have had Texas for 30 years, and because of that:

• Texas still exceeds the national average, ranking 11th among all states and the District of Columbia in 2022.

• In Texas, 4,919,210 people are facing hunger - and of them, 1,697,870 are children.

• Texas has by far the highest rate of uninsured residents of any state, at 18%

• Texas youth are more than twice as likely to be uninsured compared to other American children.

• Texas ranks last for access to mental health resources.

• Texas has significant wealth inequality, with the top 5% of the state's population holding 74% of its wealth. However, the bottom 20% of the state's population has a negative net worth of—$54.1 billion, with the bottom 10% averaging—$35,000 in wealth.

• Texas is the top emitter of toxic substances in the United States streams, rivers, and lakes. In 2020, Texas released 16.7 million pounds of toxic substances into its water, including heavy metals, solvents, ammonia, and more.

• Texas is the largest annual emitter of carbon dioxide in the United States, emitting 683.2 million metric tons in 2019. If it were a nation, Texas would be the world's eighth-largest emitter.

• The number of unhoused people has consistently grown each year in Texas.

• Texas ranks the 6th worst state in the nation for affordable housing.

• Texans are paying the 7th highest property taxes in the United States.

Republicans did that to our state (and this is a short list). People are fed up. From Brownsville to Amarillo, the people of Texas have had it with the GOP’s cruel policies and inept government.

Texas Democrats are tasked with educating and informing these potential voters. Republican policies hurt Texans, and the only way to fix what they’ve broken is to get them out of there.

How do Democrats win?

By continuously highlighting how Republican policies have given us high rates of poverty and uninsured, unaffordable housing, high property taxes, and an increasingly worse climate. Yet, instead of fixing these problems, they want to ban IVF and make sure pregnant women aren’t traveling in Texas. Believe it or not, there are still a lot of Republicans left who don’t have brain rot, and they don’t agree with what the GOP is doing.

The 2024 Republican Party of Texas Convention was a complete mess. The GOP Civil War was on full display, and extremism took center stage. These cracks offer a unique opportunity for Texas Democrats, who stand at the precipice of a potential political shift that could reshape the state’s landscape for generations to come.

Republican policies have not only sown division but have also measurably failed many Texans across the state, from worsening economic disparities to neglecting critical healthcare needs. As the demographic tide continues to turn, Texas Democrats must amplify these failures and present a clear, cohesive alternative that speaks directly to the needs and concerns of all Texans.

The GOP’s current trajectory will be its undoing, but the Democrats’ strategic, informed actions will ultimately define Texas’s future. It’s time to turn the page on decades of Republican rule and usher in a new era of Democratic leadership in Texas. The future is in our hands.

Important 2024 primary RUNOFF election days:

• May 28, 2024: Last day to receive a ballot by mail.

• May 28, 2024: Election day.

LoneStarLeft’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.

Lone Star Left - 2024 Election Hub