Texas Trends: Polling Shifts, Border Messaging, And Progressive Momentum

How Democrats are gaining ground in Texas ahead of 2024.

Finally, here’s a Texas poll we like. The latest poll from the University of Houston can be found here. In it, Trump had only a four-point lead over Kamala Harris.

The same poll also shows Colin Allred within the margin of error against Ted Cruz.

I noticed a few things about this poll: white people and older generations were overrepresented. However, weighting is a statistical technique used to adjust the results better to reflect the demographic makeup of the studied population. If certain groups are overrepresented or underrepresented in the sample, the pollsters assign weights to the responses from those groups to correct for this imbalance.

Looking at the University of Houston polls in 2020, they had Trump at +5 in October. The election wound up being +5.58 for Trump.

Kamala Harris has plenty of time to make more waves in Texas. While Biden didn’t campaign here in 2020, it would go a long way for Kamala Harris to have a stop or two in Texas.

The polls are moving in the right direction.

More Texas speak on night #3 at the DNC.

First up was Congresswoman Veronic Escobar. I’m glad they had her speak, as she leans progressive and gives solid messaging on the border. This is important right now because the DNC, as a whole, is seemingly moving right on border issues.

Escobar highlighted how Republicans are blocking comprehensive immigration reform and only offering demonization of migrants. She praised Kamala Harris for being genuinely engaged and thoughtful about border challenges. She said she would bring humane solutions, secure the borders, and uphold America’s promise of treating those seeking a better future with dignity.

Then there was Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar. Although his message was grim at times, he was a fantastic spokesperson for Democrats on border messaging. Too often, we hear from Greg Abbott’s hand-picked Sheriffs that we don’t always get to listen to the truth.

Salazar emphasized that while Donald Trump exploits border issues for his own gain without genuinely helping law enforcement, Kamala Harris has a proven track record of effectively combating border crime. He also spoke about the dangers of human trafficking at the border and criticized Trump for actions that make their jobs harder.

Thank you, Bexar County, for electing such an excellent messenger.

There weren’t any Texas speakers on Day #2. There’s an unconfirmed rumor that Colin Allred will speak tonight. If Allred or any other Texas speakers grace the DNC stage tonight, I’ll have the clips for you tomorrow.

Congressman Greg Casar interviews with Hasan Piker.

If you don’t know Hasan Piker, he’s a leftist political commentator based in California with millions of online followers. He once covered some of my tweets on his show, and because of it, I gained 10,000 followers on Twitter in one day. Some ladies online call him “Commie Daddy” (not me) because he’s also a fashion model. He’s also not a communist. He’s a Democratic Socialist (like Bernie).

Piker has been covering the DNC this week, and yesterday sat down with Greg Casar.

Casar is such a genuine person. He’s hard not to like. In this interview, they discussed housing in Austin, challenges with police oversight, and the political landscape in Texas.

I’m afraid I have to disagree with Piker’s assessments of Texas. Casar did a great job setting the record straight, though. There is no real evidence that Latinos in Texas are moving right as much as there is evidence that Latinos are abstaining from voting.

Also, as most of you know, Austin isn’t the only blue part of Texas. More than half of Texans live in blue areas. The only red left is rural counties.

I loved that Casar had a chance to talk about his bill to connect the Texas grid to the US. It needs more attention and support.

The Congressman’s interview ended with a message we could all learn from. The long-term impact of consistent community organizing and the importance of not giving up in the face of setbacks.

Texas is at a critical juncture, and the momentum is shifting.

With the right messaging and continued grassroots efforts, progressives have a real opportunity to make significant inroads. The dedication and authenticity of leaders like Congresswoman Escobar, Sheriff Salazar, and Congressman Casar exemplify leadership that can resonate with voters across the state. The path forward may be challenging, but a blue Texas is within our reach.

Vote early, vote often, just vote.

• October 7: Last day to register to vote.

• October 21: First day to early vote.

• October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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