The 2026 Texas Democratic Primaries: Part Three
The Democratic Congressional primaries, part one of… Apparently more than I planned.
In the Texas Congressional races, between the Democratic and Republican primaries, 249 people are seeking office in 38 seats. If you’re just joining us for this series, you can find the first two parts here:
And if you’re keeping score of the Democratic primary races we’ve already discussed:
US Senate
Governor
Lt. Governor
Attorney General
Comptroller
Land Commissioner
SBOE05, SBOE07, SBOE08, and SBOE13
SD05, SD11, and SD21
If you’re looking for websites and socials of candidates, check here:
Over the past few days, I’ve been contacted by several Independent and Green Party candidates who asked why I was only tracking the two major parties. And the reason is that the Secretary of State is only showing the two major primary elections at this time. Maybe I can find it elsewhere, but do the Green Party and Libertarians even have primary elections in Texas? No, they don’t. So, I’ll add them when the SOS adds them for the general ballot.
There are some Independents (*cough cough Mike Collier*) who are running as Independents but hoping to get Democratic voters. Of course, my feelings have always been that if you want Democratic votes, you should probably run as a Democrat. 🤷🏻♀️
Let’s talk about the Democratic Congressional primaries. (Under the 2025 map.)
TX01
We’re going to start with TX01, and I’m going to tell you it’s a long shot, but keep reading because there really aren’t too many long shots (surprisingly) for Democrats. However, this is a good opportunity for Democrats to chip away at Republican dominance in East Texas and build infrastructure.
TX01 is rural East Texas and consists of a lot of small towns, a few sundown towns, and is heavily Republican at the federal level despite a sizable Black population in some counties. Nathaniel Moran (R) is the incumbent here, and God forgive me, I have such a hard time with his name, because every time I see him, he’s speaking slowly and his mouth is hanging open.
Running for this seat are Rev. Dr. Tracy Andrus, Masika Ray, Dax Alexander, and Yolanda Prince.
This is one of the few districts that has an Anglo majority, 60%, an obvious product of Republican gerrymandering. Realistically, Democrats would have to overperform by something like +35 points to flip this seat, which I would say is highly improbable.
With this seat, we need to be thinking about the long-term; we need to be thinking about 2028 and beyond, and these candidates should be considering if they are a one-and-done run. There should be a massive surge in registration and turnout among Black voters and younger working-class people. Think about years of local infrastructure: county parties, unions, church networks, rural issue organizing (hospitals, broadband, wages).
Primary voters should choose a local leader. Courthouse-level name, pastor, teacher, or community leader over “random online Dem.” The candidate should already live and work in the area and be fluent in discussing land, logging, farming, oil, and schools.
TX04
I have a video (somewhere) of Texan Dade Phelan banging a giant gavel really hard. Then it cuts to a clip of TX04 incumbent Pat Fallon (from Massachusetts) with a tiny gavel banging it in a very dainty manner. Now, I can’t remember where I uploaded that video. If you remember seeing it on one of my pages, please message me and remind me where. Pat Fallon does have a Republican primary opponent; I don’t know anything about his gaveling skills.
On the Democratic side, there’s Dr. Andrew Rubell and Jason Pearce.
TX04 is going to be another long shot, but absolutely worth the effort. This area is a mix of exurban Dallas sprawl and small towns stretching to the Oklahoma border. It’s GOP lean, but it’s growing and diversifying. There are many commuters here who have been priced out of Dallas. The path here would be to hammer on local issues like school funding, property taxes, and rural health care.
The right candidate here should be able to hold conversations with both PTA moms and tractor-supply dads.
TX05
I’ve honestly spent the last few years of my life trying to ignore the Republican incumbent of TX05, Lance Gooden. He and Brian Babin (R-TX36), both. They’re the only two people on the planet who lie more than Donald Trump. Gooden is especially deplorable because, during COVID, when they were allowed to vote by proxy, he and his wife spent on a lavish two-year world tour on the taxpayers’ dime.
The Democrats running in this district are Ruth Torres, Chelsey Hockett, and Forrest Lumpkin.
The district includes the edges of Dallas County, Kaufman County, and some rural East Texas. That’s important to know when you look at how these areas of Dallas have been underrepresented and have a low turnout, plus how Kaufman County is rapidly growing and diversifying. On paper, this district is only 52% white. In practice, many of the Black and Hispanic communities in this district have low voter turnout rates. That’s going to be the key in this district.
This district can be flipped in 2026 if Democrats overperform by around +15 points. It’s not impossible. It’s still a monumental task. They’ll need a big turnout jump in the more diverse Dallas-area precincts. There should be long-term investment in the East Texas field (especially Black communities, younger working-class families).
The right candidate here will need to be comfortable in Black and Latino spaces, such as churches, community centers, and civic orgs. As well as having an explicit pro-democracy, anti-extremism message about book bans, voting rights, and school attacks.
TX08
Incumbent Morgan Lutrell (R) isn’t running again because the Republican Party made him sad. Six Republicans are running in the fascist primaries.
On the Democratic side, we have Laura Jones and Keith Coleman.
TX08 would be considered the Houston exurbs and suburbs, with fast growth and rising racial diversity, but anchored by hard-red Montgomery County. Of course, my friends in Montgomery County will message me and tell me they’re fighting like hell to chip away at the GOP’s hold. With so many candidates on the ballot this year, maybe it’ll make a big impact in 2026.
And like the previous district, flipping this one would take a +18-point swing. The path in the general election should be to max out the Democratic vote in the more diverse/younger parts while cutting GOP margins in cul-de-sac suburbia. Run up the score with people sick of culture-war insanity but not naturally “left.” There would have to be ruthless local organizing.
The right candidate would be someone who fits well in suburbia, someone who can talk about schools, traffic, property taxes, and abortion access in plain language. There would have to be a real door-knocking plan and ability to raise serious money online. Republican-lite posturing will not win over voters in this district.
TX09
I had to look at the numbers for this district for a long time. Am I missing something here? Here are the partisanship and demographics of this seat, based on how Republicans drew it, using 2024 election data. That doesn’t look like a safe (R) to me.
Yet, Al Green (D-TX09) decided to run for TX18 instead, and a whole bunch of Republicans are running for this seat, including Briscoe Cain, who is giving up his State House seat. And Democrats will overperform in 2026. I don’t expect this seat to be taken by Republicans at all.
I thought I must be missing something, maybe I’m looking at the wrong map, the wrong data. I checked and double-checked. I’m feeling pretty good about Democrats holding on to this district next year. They would only need a +5 overperformance. Regardless, nine Republicans are running.
On the Democrat side, there’s Terry Virts, Peter Filler, Marty Rocha, Ernest Clayton Jr., Todd Ivey, and Leticia Gutierrez.
TX10
This is a weird strip running from Austin suburbs through rural counties toward Houston, drawn to keep Republicans in charge. But if Democrats overperform by +10 to +12 points in 2026, they can flip this seat. I keep talking about the overperformance because mark my words, Democrats will overperform in Texas next year. The question is, by how much? With a candidate on every ballot in the race, even more than without. Texas Dems are looking better and better every day.
There are ten Republicans in the Republican primary.
On the Democratic side, we have Bernie Reyna, Dawn Marshall, Caitlin Rourk, and Rosalinda Trevino.
To flip this district, Democrats will need to outperform in the Austin-area and college-town parts. They’ll also have to avoid getting annihilated in the rural middle by talking directly about rural hospitals, farm incomes, and broadband.
The right candidate can talk to Austin progressives and small-town business owners without sounding fake to either. They should be infrastructure-focused; broadband, water, hospitals, and schools should be constant themes. And economic populists will have an edge. “I’ll fight corporate price-gouging” plays in both suburbs and small towns.
TX11
I don’t like always being mean to Republicans. In fact, I want to say something nice about TX11 Republican incumbent August Pfluger:
He’s named after a town in Texas.
Actually, his ancestor named a town after himself. The town is now known as Pflugerville. I also saw Pfluger on a podcast once talking about how his head was a precise square, and that was a genetic trait, kind of like the Habsburg jaw.
Anyway, two Democrats are running here for this West Texas long-shot seat, which includes Midland and Odessa. That’s Pedro ‘Pete’ Ruiz and Claire Reynolds.
The path to flipping this seat would take a major demographic and generational shift in oil towns. It would also require a strong economic transition story, with green/clean energy jobs in the region, not “somewhere else.”
Primary voters should look for a candidate who has honest energy. Don’t front like oil is disappearing tomorrow. Talk about protecting workers and diversifying the local economy.
TX12
This district is way more competitive than people think. The non-Anglo population is larger than the Anglo population, and Tarrant has been shifting blue. And with this district overlapping with SD09, which just overperformed in a special election, and Democrats are aiming to flip in a runoff in January, there’s even more reason to target this district.
The incumbent is Craig Goldman (R). He’s nothing special.
Running for this seat are Kenneth Morgan-Aguilera and Heli Rodriguez Prilliman.
Democrats would need a +8 to +10 overperformance to flip this seat. Doable in a wave election. They will have to increase the Latino turnout by 25–30%. Black turnout needs to hit presidential levels. And young-renter turnout must rise dramatically.
Primarily, voters should look for which candidate has the strongest bilingual outreach, the best message on schools, property taxes, abortion (suburban moms), and infrastructure. This person needs to be an urban–suburban communicator.
TX14
I’ve been talking to State House and SBOE candidates who overlap with this district about coordinated campaigns, because some people say flipping this seat in 2026 will be hard. Not impossible, but hard. But with this seat, I think there’s a lot more than meets the eye.
TX14 covers Galveston, Jefferson, Orange, parts of Brazoria, and Fort Bend. It’s a coastal district; it could be flipped with a +12 to +14 overperformance, but it largely depends on Black turnout in Jefferson County spiking by 20% or more. That’s the big ask part, when you understand that in that area, we’re dealing with generational disenfranchisement, and I’m not sure that can be fixed in one election cycle, but I’m always hopeful. We’d have to see aggressive organizing around environmental justice, health impacts, and union economics.
The right candidate here should be labor-friendly and open to support from unions, refinery workers, and port workers. They should frame environmental justice as “clean air and water for you, not just corporate profits.” It’ll be important to connect racial & economic justice: naming how Black and Latino neighborhoods bear the pollution burden.
Randy Webber (R) is the incumbent; he does have a primary challenger.
The Democrats running here are Richard Davis, Thurman Bartie, and Konstantinos Vogiatzis.
TX15
The incumbent in this seat is Monica De La Cruz (R), who is the most hilarious person in the world to me because whenever she talks in Congress, she sounds exactly like Mary Gallagher, Superstar.
The Democrats running for this seat are Dr. Ada Cuellar and Bobby Pulido.
If we see a strong overperformance from Democrats at the top of the ticket in November, let’s say +8 points, this seat should flip. The path to flipping it needs to be Hyper-local organizing in colonias, small towns, and working-class neighborhoods, and a strong economic message around wages, healthcare access, and border reality (vs panic-bait).
The right primary candidate should have deep ties in the valley and be known in churches, schools, union halls, and farmworker spaces. They should also be pro-labor, pro-immigrant, and pro-choice in plain language.
TX16
This is a silly race, but we’re talking about it. The incumbent is Veronica Escobar (D), who is popular, generally progressive, and well-liked. She’s being challenged by Arturo Andujo, who doesn’t have that much of a digital footprint.
And since this is a safe blue seat, the seven Republicans vying for office here don’t have much of a chance either.
TX17
Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions doesn’t even live in this district. But technically, it’s not a rule that you have to either. TX17 is a mix of college towns, small cities, and rural counties. GOP-leaning but has pockets of younger, diverse, or higher-education voters.
The path to flipping this district would be to max turnout in college areas and diverse neighborhoods and chip away in small towns with sharp economic-populist messaging. It would take a +15 Democratic overperformance, though. So, it’s one of those that isn’t impossible, but is a long shot. But a lot depends on what happens between now and next November with the economy, with WWIII, with Civil War 2.0, how the top of the ticket performs, does the older man in diapers survive, etc.
The right candidate in the primary can work both university crowds and courthouse squares. This is someone who will focus on student debt, teacher pay, property taxes, and hospital closures.
The Democrats running for this seat are J. Gordon-Mitchell, Casey Shephard, and Milah Flores.
TX18
TX18 is a mess. I don’t know if I even want to talk about it. In January, Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards will be in a runoff. Lone Star Left has endorsed ⭐Christian Menefee⭐, and that endorsement goes for the other election, too. I do expect Christian Menefee to win and then spend the rest of the year in Congress.
However, in March, they’re doing the primary all over again for the next session of Congress, which is a little confusing. On the ballot, once more, will be Menefee and Edwards, as well as Al Green and Gretchen Brown.
Two Republicans are fighting for this seat, but it’s safe blue, and 2026 will be the year of the Democrat.
TX20
This is another silly race to talk about. The incumbent, Joaquin Castro (D), will win re-election, but he faces two primary challengers, John Atwood and Kendra Wilkerson.
I really thought we were going to knock out all the congressional primaries in one swoop, but clearly I was lying to myself.
This thing is already a novella, and we still have 18 more races to talk about.
On top of that, we’ve got an important situation developing in Houston tomorrow that I need to put on blast, and on Sunday, I’ll be dropping a new “Meet the Candidate” article. So here’s the plan:
I’ll be back Monday with Part Four of this primary series and Part Two of the congressional races. We’ll finish walking through the rest of these districts, who’s running, which ones are flippable, and where your time, money, and emotional energy are actually worth investing.
After that, all we’ll have left are the Texas House races. And honestly, that’s what I’m most excited about. That’s where a lot of the real damage (and real progress) happens, and where a blue overperformance could scramble the Republican superstructure in ways they are absolutely not prepared for.
So stay tuned, stay hydrated, and don’t let anyone tell you Texas “can’t” flip. We’re going to walk through exactly how it can.
February 2, 2026: Last Day to Register to Vote
February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote
March 3, 2026: Primary Election
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Hey Michelle! GOOD one, but I'm exhausted after just skimming it. Dunno how you do it, hon, but thank you!!! Already shared on Bsky!
I’m grateful for your hard work. Good luck finding the videos about the gavels. I remember seeing it but could not tell you when. I have a hard time remembering what I did yesterday.