The GOP Primary Is A Dumpster Fire
The Texas GOP selects its champion (sort of).
Election Day is May 26. Early voting ends Friday. Grab some popcorn.
The Texas Republican Party spent years insisting it was a unified, disciplined governing force (lmao), the envy of every red-state machine in the country. But we know better. What voters are staring down on May 26 is not a well-oiled party selecting its champions. It’s a family dinner where everyone hates everyone, and someone set the tablecloth on fire.
Let’s talk about the wreckage and the Republican-on-Republican violence.
John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton
Neither John Cornyn nor Ken Paxton broke 50% in the March primary. Cornyn led 42% to Paxton’s 40.5%, meaning Texans get to watch these two men accurately describe each other as unfit for office for an additional two months.
And they have not held back. Pro-Cornyn forces have outspent the Paxton side more than four to one, dominating the airwaves with ads attacking Paxton as incompetent, corrupt, and adulterous. Cornyn’s own senior adviser put it plainly, “Senator Cornyn has said that character is on the ballot... we are educating Texas GOP voters about Ken Paxton’s mismanagement of his office, his personal enrichment, his indefensible behavior and his disqualifying judgment in child sex abuse cases.” That’s a Republican consultant describing the Republican frontrunner in a Republican primary.
Paxton, for his part, has tagged Cornyn as a generational relic, weak on red-meat issues, and an ally to Democrats. So in summary, one of them is a corrupt adulterer, and the other one loves Democrats.
Speaking of a relic. Rick Perry and Sen Phil Gramm were spotted campaigning yesterday for John Cornyn. Raise your hand if you knew Phil Gramm was still alive.
Then there’s the divorce. Last July, Angela Paxton, Ken’s wife of 38 years and a sitting State Senator, filed for divorce citing “biblical grounds” and “recent discoveries,” accusing him of adultery. The divorce proceedings were quickly sealed because, apparently, there are things even more damaging than what was already public. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023. His own staff had accused him of bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction. Can you imagine what we don’t know?
Current polling has Paxton ahead of Cornyn 48% to 45%, which means the candidate his own party described as corrupt, adulterous, and a child sex abuse case manager is one polling margin of error away from being the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Which only speaks to the deep depravity of the Republican Party. If we really were a Christian Nation, as they all claimed, don’t they realize they’d be the ones that God drowned in the great flood because of their depravity?
The good news for us is that James Talarico raised a record-breaking $27 million in Q1 alone. Whatever crawls out of this runoff will be bruised, broke relative to that number, and carrying a year’s worth of opposition research gifted to the Democrats by the other Republican.
Chip Roy vs. Mayes Middleton
Ken Paxton’s decision to run for Senate rather than seek re-election as attorney general set off what might be the most philosophically revealing race on the ballot. A competition to determine who is the most Paxton-like candidate to replace Paxton, which GOP AG-hopefuls are practically screaming, “I CAN BE A CROOK, TOO!”
Mayes Middleton, a Galveston oil and gas billionaire who has dubbed himself “MAGA Mayes.” He contributed almost $14 million of his own money to his campaign. At the end of February, he had $28,000 in cash on hand, meaning he spent approximately $13,972,000 and had nothing to show for it except a first-place primary finish and a nickname that sounds like a budget action hero.
Chip Roy, a sitting congressman who has promoted himself as a founder of the “Sharia Free America” caucus while simultaneously trying to position himself as the more serious candidate. Roy previously served under both Paxton and Ted Cruz, which is either a credential or a warning label depending on your perspective.
Roy recently received a $2.75 million infusion from GOP megadonor Alex Fairly, flipping the spending dynamic in the final stretch. Polling has Middleton leading 48% to Roy’s 39%, with 13% still undecided, which, in a race this bizarre, is the most rational position available.
The deeper joke here is that the entire race has centered on which of them is more loyal to Trump, more in the Paxton mold, more willing to use the AG’s office as a political weapon. The winner will look to continue the GOP’s three-decade winning streak in Texas statewide elections by running as the heir to a guy who was impeached by his own party. The Paxton legacy is apparently something to inherit, not escape.
Jim Wright vs. Bo French
Every circus needs a sideshow, and Texas’s statewide races deliver. Incumbent Jim Wright faces former Tarrant County GOP Chair Bo French in the Republican runoff for Texas railroad commissioner, the office that, despite its name, regulates the oil and gas industry and has nothing to do with trains. (This is Texas. The branding is intentional.)
Wright leads French 35% to 28%, with a remarkable 37% of likely voters still undecided, nearly two-fifths of the electorate refusing to commit to either candidate in a race for an office most Texans couldn’t describe at gunpoint. This is perhaps the most honest expression of voter sentiment in the entire runoff.
The View From 30,000 Feet
What ties all of this together is a Republican Party at war with itself over who gets to claim the MAGA brand, while simultaneously producing candidates that even Republican operatives are calling corrupt, adulterous, and disqualifying. A recent survey found that 43% of Republican primary voters have an unfavorable opinion of Paxton, and 49% have an unfavorable opinion of Cornyn. The majority of Republican primary voters dislike both of their Senate choices. This is what winning looks like for them.
The Harris County Republican Party chair acknowledged that unifying behind the eventual nominee will be a challenge, given the campaign’s tone. That’s the charitable version. The less charitable version is that one side just spent months making the case that the other side’s candidate is a criminal and a fraud, and November is only five months away.
The question now is which Republican nominee limps out of this mess on May 27, damaged, underfunded relative to the Democratic war chest, and carrying every attack ad from the other side already pre-packaged and ready to air.
They’re doing half our work for us.
May 22, 2026: Last day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Election day! (Democratic primary runoff elections)
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I believe CNN is reporting Trump just endorsed Paxton.
On a slightly different topic, I hope once the primaries are over, we coalesce behind a coordinated ticket with Talarico at the top. Two things I personally would like to see happen is we bolster our credibility in general and we specifically undermine Republican credibility. Strike while the iron is hot.
Republican voters are questioning their party. They can't cogitate their way out of the corner MAGA officials have put them in. They vote for these guys and these guys ruin their lives, while demanding they thank them for it. Something has to give. And, I want us to be there to capture these votes for our side.
One idea I am pushing is to educate voters about how incredibly crucial these down ballot races are like RR Commissioner. I would also like to undermine the Republican misrepresentation of what the AG's jurisdiction is. This is not a mini-DOJ. Paxton has successfully convinced people he is a prosecutor, when he is not. Making that clear to the public and pointing out what the real job of AG is and how the Republican candidates are being deceptive about the what and how of the job will discredit them in the eyes of the public. Instead of allowing Republicans to define us, we just need to reveal them for what they are.
Anyway, onward!
I’m loving this article! You are genuinely funny in this oh-so-serious time.
I would like to think that some of the “undecided” republicans will cross over to the bright side, but I’m sure the billionaires will just push more money into the equation.