The Latest Lone Star Election Chatter: Part Two
The calm before the campaign storm.
Yesterday, in Part One, we discussed the Democrats on the statewide ticket and some of the Congressional races. Today, let’s get into the SBOE and the State Legislature. Unlike the Congressional races, these maps haven’t changed, and we have a much better idea of how these races should shape up.
One thing to note, that we discussed yesterday, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia is running for re-election. She announced it in August, but I just missed it. So, Jarvis Johnson is launching a primary campaign against her. Again, I want to wait until we know the new maps are either thrown out or sticking before getting into it further, but what I’m hearing from Harris County activists is that Johnson’s campaign launch is based on the new maps changing the population distribution.
It’ll definitely be a race I’ll be watching.
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State Board of Education (SBOE).
I think several of these seats can be flipped without much hard work this year, especially if we see a wave election as we anticipate. The SBOE elections don’t get nearly the attention they need, but they are so important because these are the people shaping the curricula for the future minds of Texas. Currently, we have J-6ers, conspiracy theorists, and climate change deniers on our SBOE. It’s bad and we need to change it.
There are 15 SBOE seats. The current makeup of them is five (D) and ten (R), so Democrats need to flip five to gain control of this body. Do they have that opportunity?
SBOE02: This should be an easy flip. The Republican incumbent, LJ Francis, won his last election by less than 0.5 points in 2022, making him vulnerable. This district includes all along the Gulf Coast from Cameron County to Matagorda County. Thomas Garcia is the Democrat running against him.
SBOE05: This is a blue district and will remain blue. Rebecca Bell-Metereau is the Democratic incumbent; no word yet on whether she’s running for re-election. Allison Bush is another Democrat who has filed to run for this office.
SBOE06: Will Hickman is the bible-thumping, DEI-hating SBOE from the Harris County area. His district is a majority-minority district, and includes the northern parts of Harris County and the Southern parts of Montgomery County. He won by 20 points in 2022, but this race only saw a 41.2% turnout. I am unaware of a Dem challenger yet.
SBOE07: 🚨Julie Pickren, the Republican incumbent for this seat, participated in the January 6th Insurrection attempt. She won this seat by 22 points in 2022. During that time, she was a featured speaker at CPAC, and her Democratic challenger (although a nice guy) didn’t raise enough money. This particular race also only saw a 39.5% turnout.
SBOE07 includes the southern and eastern parts of Harris County, as well as Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, Jefferson, and Orange, among others. I’m unaware of a Democratic challenger in this race yet, but Pickren could be vulnerable if Fort Bend and Brazoria Democrats see a stellar year in 2026. Of course, for that to happen, both counties should have Democrats up and down the ticket in every single race. They’ll have to increase turnout in this area next year substantially.
SBOE08: The Republican incumbent in this seat is Audrey Young. A Democrat hasn’t run for this seat since the maps were redrawn in 2021. Even so, this seat is drawn 62% non-Anglo. In 2022, Young got fewer votes, in number, than any other SBOE candidate running. This district covers much of the outer ring of Harris County and some counties to the northeast. We need someone to throw their name in. I believe Young could be vulnerable, and I’m honestly flabbergasted no Democrat has run for this seat since redistricting.
SBOE09: I used to joke that SBOE09 Republican incumbent Keven Ellis was so dumb that he even spelled his own name wrong; of course, that’s silly, he didn’t name himself. But he keeps his personal Facebook page open (or used to), and has been known to share a lot of stupid shit, proving he shouldn’t be in education. This district is mostly East Texas, and he hasn’t had a Democratic challenger since the 2021 redistricting, either.
SBOE13: This is a safe blue seat. Tiffany Clark is the current Democratic incumbent. This seat will remain blue.
SBOE14: Evelyn Brooks is the Republican incumbent. She won by 29 points in 2022 in this rural district that stretches from north to central Texas. This district is also a majority Anglo district. We should run a Democrat in this seat to move the needle, but we shouldn’t expect to flip without a miracle this session. Right now, I’m unaware of any Democrat running for this seat.
So, can we flip five seats this year?
You know, I like to be optimistic, but I think five SBOE seats would be a stretch.
SBOE02 can ABSOLUTELY be flipped.
SBOE07 is staying on my radar as long as Julie Pickren is there. Seriously, this woman is the devil, and hopefully enough people in her district see it to vote her out.
SBOE08 and SBOE09 are wildcards. They are both majority-minority districts Democrats haven’t run in since the 2021 map changes. Frankly, I think that needs to change this year.
Of course, we need to run every seat. If Democrats overperform by +40 points like they have in special elections, we flip everything.
On the bright side, we’re not at risk of losing any ground this year.
Texas Senate.
We have 16 Texas Senate seats coming up for election next year. The current makeup of the Senate is 19 (R) and 11 (D), plus one seat, which will be decided in a few weeks.
Democrats need to flip six seats in the Texas Senate. The question is, can they do it in 2026? If we can flip the US Senate seat, the Governor’s seat, and the Lt. Governor’s seat, then can we also take control of the Texas Legislature?
That’s the biggest prize, you know. No matter what anyone else says. When Democrats capture that body, the lives of millions of people will collectively change for the better.
So, who is on the ballot next year?
SD01: This deep East Texas seat is held by Republican incumbent Senator Bryan Hughes. Republicans gave this district a +49 (R) advantage when they drew the map in 2021, which is probably why a Democrat hasn’t run for this seat since. I don’t think Hughes is vulnerable this cycle, but East Texas Democrats don’t want to be written off, so they need to keep pushing.
SD02: Republican incumbent Bob Hall is in bed with Texas billionaires Tim Dunn and Ferris Wilks. Hall is one of the most extreme-right Republicans in the Senate. Now, when Republicans drew this district in 2021, they gave themselves only a +15-point advantage. With this district including both Ellis and Kaufman Counties, which are rapidly moving left and diversifying, I bet it’s less than that. However, Hall did have a Democratic challenger in 2022, whom he beat by about 23 points. But the Democrat in that race was practically invisible and struggled to raise money. Depending on how big a tsunami we might see, I wouldn’t count on Old Bob as safe. I’m unaware of any Democrat announcing for this race yet.
SD03: This seat did belong to Senator Robert Nichols. Well, technically, he’s still the Republican incumbent, but he voted against acquitting Ken Paxton, so he’s retiring. A Democrat, Tracey Bryant, has filed to run for this East Texas office, although the seat is deeply gerrymandered and pretty red. We still need to encourage and support our rural Democrats.
SD04: I had it in my brain that this seat would be easier for Democrats, but in 2021, Republicans gave themselves a +31 point advantage. The Republican incumbent, Brandon Creighton, was appointed Chancellor of the Texas Tech University System, which is insane, because dude is as dumb as a doorknob. I’m unaware of any Democrat running for this seat yet.
SD05: If we see a huge Democratic overperformance next year, ten points or greater, I think this seat can be flipped. Especially if that overperformance is apparent in counties like Williamson and Brazos, the Republican incumbent Charles Schwertner, besides being an awful Republican, also has a DUI scandal and a public extramarital affair under his belt. Republicans gave him a +18 point advantage in 2021, but this area has drastically changed since then, and he hasn’t had a Democratic challenger. This year, he does, with Paul Thomasson, a local activist.
SD09: There’s a special election NOW (early voting) for this seat. Lone Star Left has endorsed Taylor Rehmet, and we’re hoping to see him pull off a win on November 4. This seat will be back on the ballot for the primary and general next year. I’ll keep you in the loop.
SD11: This district includes Galveston and Brazoria Counties. Republicans gave themselves a +17 point advantage in this district in 2021. I’ve been following the politics in Brazoria, but not Galveston, so I couldn’t tell you if that’s moved much. Mayes Middleton bought won this seat in 2022; no Democrats ran, but now Middleton is trying to buy the AG’s office. Cameron Rollwitz is the Democrat running for this seat this year.
SD13: This is a safe blue seat; it will remain blue. Senator Borris Miles is the incumbent. He hasn’t announced if he’s running for re-election, but I saw he was holding a fundraiser, so I would assume he is.
SD18: I could write an entire article about how evil Republican incumbent Lois Kolkhorst is. It would probably be another two-part series. Fuck her. Erica Gillum is the mayor of Hempstead and the Democrat running against her. It’s going to be a challenging race, but Gillum is a solid candidate with the potential to unseat Kolkhorst.
SD19: This is a safe blue seat; it will remain blue. Senator Roland Gutierrez is running for re-election.
SD21: This is a safe blue seat; it will remain blue. Senator Judith Zaffirini is running for re-election. Zaffirini does have a primary challenger, Courtney Jones, and other primary challengers may yet emerge.
SD22: Republican incumbent Brian Birdwell was set to retire, and the orange one just appointed him to his administration. Whatever, good riddance. The thing everyone always gets wrong about this seat is that it’s gerrymandered, with most of its population in Arlington and like 12 rural counties. While it leans red, it can be flipped if the urban area isn’t ignored, chasing the rural vote, if that makes sense. Amy Martinez-Salas is the Democrat running for this seat.
SD24: This is Republican incumbent Pete Flores’ seat. He sucks. Democrat Joe Herrera is running against him. Herrera is a friend of Lone Star Left and has run in multiple West Texas elections, knowing he wouldn’t win but also knowing how important it is to move the needle. Bless him for that.
SD26: This is a safe blue seat; it will remain blue. Senator José Menéndez is running for re-election.
SD28: I try very hard not to call Republicans names, like stupid. You know, because eventually we want to get back to normal politics, but if you have ever heard Republican incumbent Charles Perry speak, you’d understand. He’s the one who recently made headlines for making a joke about killing migrant workers. Anyway, Republicans gave themselves a +46 point advantage here, but it’s West Texas, and people don’t really vote in West Texas, so it’s even harder. However, a progressive populist is running for this seat, Riley Rodriquez.
SD31: When Republicans redrew the maps in 2021, they gave themselves a +57 point advantage here. It’s far West Texas and the top of the Panhandle, but I would say it’s probably more like a non-voting district. The Republican incumbent is Kevin Sparks. I’m unaware of any Democrat running for this seat yet.
So, can we flip six seats?
I’m really expecting us to flip SD09 in this special election. If we do, we can expect it to be blue next year as well. That would mean we only need to focus on five.
SD02 is ripe for a hard-working, well-funded progressive with a strong populist message. We don’t have that candidate yet. The right candidate can flip that seat next year.
SD05, SD11, SD18, and SD22 will all be vulnerable if Democrats in Texas overperform by 10 points or more in 2026. That’s a tall order. In 2018, with Beto, we overperformed by like 7/8 points. But at the rate we’re headed, who knows where we’ll be in 12 months?
As far as the Texas State Senate goes, the potential is there. But I’m an optimist and I always expect the stars to line up just right.
Oh gosh, look at me getting carried away again.
You’d think after years of doing this, I’d learn to rein it in a little, but when it comes to Texas politics, this is my happy place. I start talking about SBOE and Senate seats, and suddenly we’re knee-deep in data, maps, and flip math before I even realize how long this thing’s gotten.
And yes, I still want to talk about the Texas House races. Do you mind? No? Good, because I’m doing it anyway.
So, stay tuned for Part Three (the last part… for now), where we’ll dig into the Texas House. This isn’t the last time we’ll talk about all these contests, not by a long shot. Once filing closes and the campaigns hit full swing, we’ll be revisiting plenty of them.
Campaign season’s here, y’all. Buckle up.
November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election
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Thanks, Michelle! Just shared on Bsky!
SBOE07 who are the county chairs in SDEC representatives? There are resources to get or recruit candidates.