The Latest Lone Star Election Chatter: Part Three

This Is How We End Republican Rule In Texas

The easiest way to completely kill the Republican agenda in Texas is to flip the Texas House. Full stop. Now, if you’ve been following me for any length of time, you’ll know that I’ve been saying this for a long time. You’d also know that I’ve been saying we have the numbers to flip the Texas House right now.

Well, why haven’t we?

Texas just hasn’t been voting.

From 2022, our last midterm elections:

Data source: Secretary of State

As painful as it is to look at this, I promise it pains me just as much to share it.

I’ve been talking to a lot of people about what we could see in 2026. Of course, right now, it’s all speculation. In 2018, Democrats overperformed by 7 to 8 points, and Beto came so close, BUT we also flipped 12 House seats.

The current makeup of the House is 88 (R) and 62 (D), meaning Democrats would have to flip 14 seats in 2026 to take the Texas House. They can do that. There is a path forward. And I’ll tell you how.

Democrats overperformed in Texas in 2018 but underperformed in 2022. Why?

1. Maybe there is something to this whole thing about the party in the White House underperforming in the midterms. That’s what they say.

2. No meaningful Democratic infrastructure was ever built in Texas, and many people are working hard to change that.

My speculation is we’ll see a similar overperformance to 2018, perhaps a few points better. Some I’ve spoken with are even thinking about a 10- to 12-point overperformance. Again, all we can do right now is speculate, because no one knows what’ll happen between now and next year, but we’re about a week away from the Trump administration intentionally starving babies.

All of the Democratic candidates’ websites and social media (if available) are listed here:

• Who Will Be On Your 2026 State Ballot?

Let’s talk about our core flips first.

HD37: This district is way down in Cameron County. Janie Lopez is the Republican incumbent. This seat should never have been lost in the first place, and some will point to Latinos on the border voting red, but the voter turnout for that county in 2022 was 33%. So, I just don’t think enough Democrats showed up. Two Democrats are running for this office, Ozzie Ochoa and Jamie Adrian Gomez.

Lopez only won this seat in 2022 by 2,000 votes. I would imagine that, if Democrats are expected to overperform in a year, it’ll be an easy number to make up.

HD118: Kristian Carranza (D) is giving this race one more go. Frankly, I’m happy to see. Carranza was a fantastic candidate, and she should have flipped this seat last year. In 2024, 1.4 million Texas Democrats stayed home. She came closer than any other race on the ballot, only missing the mark by three points. This San Antonio seat is really blue, but it’s been held by Republicans for the last several cycles because it’s such a low-turnout area.

Remember, low turnout always benefits fascists. HD118 saw a 50.2% turnout in 2024 (a presidential election) and 33% in 2022. Any Democratic overperformance this year should flip this seat.

What pickups would we likely see with a 6- to 7-point Democratic overperformance?

HD108 and HD112: These are the last two red House seats in Dallas County. No, not in Dallas, the city. Dallas County. I actually argued with someone about this a few months ago, who was mad at me for saying Dallas County was blue, and they claimed that the suburbs were red. But what they really meant is that the counties outside of Dallas that are part of DFW are red (for now).

Dallas County is a big blue bastion of liberal hope, with a perpetuating mayor who switched parties after being elected (but that’s a topic for another day). HD108 is currently held by Morgan Meyers, whose biggest benefactor is Harlan Crow. This is a wealthy, affluent area, which includes Highland Park and Preston Hollow. Allison Mitchell is the Democrat running for this seat.

HD112 covers Garland, Mesquite, and East Dallas. The Republican incumbent is Angie Chen Button, she’s an extremist, but she acts like a nice old grandma. She’s not nice. Zach Herbert is the Democrat running for this office.

HD121: When Republicans redrew this district in 2021, they only gave themselves a +2-point advantage. But Democrats haven’t really done well since then, and that’s okay, it’s water under the bridge. This is Republican incumbent Marc Lahood’s district. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

HD133: Republican incumbent Mano DeAyala has frequently appeared on his local Fox News station as the voice of Trump Latinos in Texas. He loves pollution, Texas oil, and money, but this district isn’t safe for him. Joshua Wallenstein is the Democrat running against him.

HD138: Another Harris County district (like HD133) that is ripe and ready for a flip. There’s a joke circulating the halls of Austin about the Republican incumbent here. It goes, “Who has Lacey Hull not slept with?” Of course, at Lone Star Left, we don’t slut-shame, only call out the family-first hypocrisy. Tyler Smith is the Democrat running in this race.

HD52: I’m not sure how Caroline Harris-Davila keeps getting elected; she’s a mean girl. She hangs out with all the other mean girls and stands at the front mic, making dagger eyes at Democrats anytime they ask questions. This seat is in Williamson County. A critical county for Democrats. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

HD63: The Denton County Republican incumbent in this district is Ben Bumgarner, who is a gun manufacturer. That’s his whole personality. His wife is also running for the school board this year. Denise Wooten is the Democrat running for this seat.

So far, all of those seats are looking good for challengers, except HD121 and HD52. That doesn’t mean there isn’t any, it could be that they just haven’t filed a treasurer yet, or their announcement hasn’t made it to me.

What pickups would we likely see with an 8- to 10-point Democratic overperformance?

HD61: Keresa Richardson, the Republican incumbent in Collin County, is a hot mess. Let me tell you, she’s never heard a conspiracy theory she didn’t believe it. Full Maga. Full Nazi. Full QAnon. And her husband has a three-foot-long mustache, no beard. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

HD66: Also, Collin County. This is Matt Shaheen’s district. Do we all know who he is right off the top of our heads? He’s one of those extreme guys who have been around way too long. As you can tell, Collin County is ready, and it’s going to take a lot of hard work this election season. Sandeep Srivastava is the Democrat running for HD66.

HD67: Yes, Collin County again. Jeff Leach. It’s always funny to me because all the Democrats in Collin County call Jeff Leach an extremist, but all the Republicans call him a RINO. He’s pro-forced birth, racist, pro-fossil fuels, and all that, but he’s very polite about it. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

HD65: On to Denton County next door, Mitch Little, who is one slick-talking lawyer. No one likes him. He went on CNN and said Republicans can violate the Constitution because they’re in the majority. Detrick Deburr is the Democrat running against him.

HD94: We thought we got rid of Tony Tinderholt, but he’s trying to plague our Tarrant County Courts now. The seat is open. About four Republicans are running. Katie Duzan is the Democrat running for this seat.

HD96: This was David Cook’s seat, but he is running for the State Senate. This seat is in Mansfield. So far, Ebony Turner has filed to run in this seat again.

HD97: John McQueeney is the Republican incumbent in this Tarrant County district. To flip this seat, Democrats would have to overperform by roughly nine points, but it can be done. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

HD122: One of the funniest city council meeting moments (and I watch way too many city councils across the state) was when Mark Darazio had to explain to the San Antonio City Council how to say his name. Maybe it wasn’t THAT funny, perhaps I’m easily entertained, but it really was like an Abbott and Costello moment. Regardless, since the GOP has had control in Texas for 30 years, its ranks are full of extremists. Darazio is no different. I am unaware of a Democratic challenger here yet. But this is an important district and cannot go undisputed.

The tally?

If Democrats overperform by ten points in 2026, we could flip as many as 17 House seats. Maybe more. But that would definitely flip the House and give us a small cushion to land on.

Earliest green-lights (fund/field immediately):
37, 118, 108, 112, 121, 133, 52, 63, 138

Second wave (need strong candidates):
61, 65, 66, 67, 94, 96, 97, 122

I’ve been doing a little more “Michelle, you like to dream” math, and looking at what districts we need to make sure we also have candidates in if we actually see a tsunami. (Like an 11 to 15-point overperformance. Too wishful?)

We can get more into these seats in more detail later, if you want, but the potential is there, and NONE of these seats should go uncontested:

• HD14

• HD20

• HD26

• HD28

• HD57

• HD89

• HD93

• HD106

• HD129

• HD132

• HD150

So, what does all this mean?

It means the map is sitting right there, waiting for us. Fourteen flips. That’s it. Not forty, not fifty, just fourteen. Every single one of these seats is winnable with the kind of turnout we’ve already seen before. If Democrats in Texas show up the way we did in 2018, or even just a few points better, we take the gavel.

The truth is, the math has never been our problem. The machinery has. The voters are here. The population is here. The frustration is here. What’s been missing is the follow-through, investment, field work, coordinated messaging, and a refusal to let any seat go uncontested.

Republicans know what’s coming. Their internal numbers show it, their panic over redistricting shows it, and their obsession with voter suppression screams it. They’ve built their power on apathy, on people giving up before the fight even starts.

We can change that.

If Democrats overperform by even 8 to 10 points in 2026, we flip the Texas House. If we overperform by 12 or more, we rewrite history. That’s the path. That’s the work. And that’s how we end three decades of Republican rule in Texas.

So the question isn’t if it can happen. The question is whether we’ll show up to make it happen.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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