The Latest Lone Star Election Chatter: Part One

Setting the stage for the 2026 election tsunami.

Last night, I finally got around to updating both “Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?” and “Who Will Be On The State Ballot For 2026?” Not that I was procrastinating… well, maybe a little, I was hoping that we would have a verdict on the maps case being heard in El Paso. But we don’t. So, if we receive a verdict in the next few weeks and the maps are thrown out, I’ll make the necessary changes. Updating these lists is time-consuming because I’m also trying to find and link all (D) websites and social media accounts.

Right now, I’m tracking 219 races. A few months ago, I mentioned that I would eventually get around to tracking judicial races as well. And last week, someone reached out and reminded me of that. Once we get through this Constitutional Election (on November 4), I’ll try to get the page for judicial races up.

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• Early voting ends: October 31, 2025

• Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2025

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As we’re getting closer to the end of the year, we’re seeing more and more candidates jump out there. I’m only adding them to the list if they make an announcement somewhere that they intend to run, or they file their intent with the Secretary of State (SoS).

We’re going to have very competitive Congressional races this year, but I’m not sure about our Legislative races yet. In 2024, I was part of the recruitment team that recruited candidates up and down the ballot, and I definitely pulled my weight, helping find candidates to run in that cycle. Due to all the shakeups within the Party and around the state, I wasn’t invited onto that team this cycle. Which, whatever, I’m really busy anyway, but seeing how competitive our Congressional races are and how some Legislative races are still *crickets,* I am a little concerned.

I had a chance to talk to Kendall Scudder this week.

Specifically about my concern, he assured me that the recruiting team includes multiple organizations and that they have prospects for almost every seat, but they just haven’t turned them into candidates yet, or the candidates aren’t ready to be known/filed yet.

Scudder assured me it’ll be okay, but my concern is ALWAYS that too many will focus on the Congressional races while overlooking the Legislative races, even though the Legislative races are TWICE as important as the Congressional races.

Next year, Texas will see a blue wave. With every statewide seat having solid progressive candidates to vote for and every Congressional seat having a Democrat to vote for, Democrats would be just plain stupid to leave any down-ballot election un-contested.

It is harder to find people to run for the Legislature because it’s basically a low-paying gig that takes up most of your time, but if we flip it, we can change that. And maybe that’s the conversation we need to have. (So, expect that soon.)

Let’s talk about the statewide races first.

As we all know, Gina Hinojosa has jumped into the race for governor and quickly pulled just about every big-name endorsement in Texas. I endorsed her, too. As Howdy Politics pointed out this morning, Hinojosa’s endorsement list alone is a huge indicator.

I happen to agree with her on this, which is why I threw my name in early.

Now, as far as the Senate race goes, there were some polls this week showing Allred ahead of Talarico. However, I’m not putting much stock in those polls. Here’s why:

1. Allred’s name recognition.

2. Allred’s money.

Last week, I casually observed several conversations on social media about Gina Hinojosa and James Talarico being “lesser known,” how people were more familiar with Allred because he ran last cycle, and even people wanting Beto to jump in.

I could have screamed. Everyone pays attention to national politics; no one pays attention to state politics. It’s you’re own fault for not paying attention to the things that impact you most. Why are your wages low? State politics. Why don’t you have healthcare? State politics. Why does your city make you boil water every week? State politics. Yet, you’re too plugged in with how shitty Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are to know that in Texas, we have really good, solid progressives at home.

I digress. The only reason Allred is a few points ahead in the polls of Talarico right now is that last year he spent $85+ million in a Senate race in Texas, and he’s been running this year for like six months. Talarico only jumped into the race a month ago. Not only has he outraised Allred, but his rallies are outperforming Allred in attendance, and Talarico’s media attention has spanned beyond the typical establishment (Allred’s has not).

Talarico will beat Allred in the primary. There’s not a part of me that doubts that. It’s only been 26 days since he announced.

Now, once again, there are rumors of Jasmine Crockett possibly jumping into the Senate race. And many people love her and are pressuring her to do so. I love her too.

Do I think she could win the primary over Talarico? Maybe she has a good shot. Do I think she could win the general election against Ken Paxton? That’s going to be harder because you can’t just take into account how many people love her, but you also have to take into account how many racist Republicans hate her. In Texas, it’s a lot.

Blaze Media (Glenn Beck), based in Dallas, has done entire hate segments on Jasmine Crockett that have gotten millions of views. Their reporters have stalked her in Dallas. And maybe they’re just a small subsection of the population. Or maybe Texas is a battleground state, and we have to factor that in.

• Filing deadline for primary candidates: December 8, 2025.

For Lt. Governor, Vikki Goodwin still seems to be our frontrunner candidate.

Another Democrat, Courtney Head, announced she was running for Lt. Governor and received some early backlash on TikTok for announcing a campaign stop at Buc-ee’s.

I thought it was common knowledge among Texas Democrats that we boycott Buc-ee’s because their owner, Arch Aplin, has deep ties with the Republican Party of Texas. Someone wrote an article about this a few years back, now I can’t find it (but I can still find the political donations, if it’s time for an update).

A lot of Democrats in Texas don’t shop at Buc-ee’s because that money is later used to oppress marginalized groups. If you plan to run as a Democrat in Texas, for anyone who doesn’t already know, make sure to keep Buc-ee’s off your list of stops.

Moving on. Currently, only Joe Jaworski and Nathan Johnson are Democrats in the race for Attorney General. This month, I interviewed them both for special episodes of the Left in Texas Podcast, because the Attorney General’s race matters more than people realize. If we flip this seat, we change the legal machinery that keeps Texas in a perpetual culture war.

Obviously, Lone Star Left will give an endorsement in the AG’s race later in the primary cycle, because I believe it’s such an important race. Stay tuned for that announcement in early 2026.

Clayton Tucker is still the only Democrat in the race for Agriculture Commissioner. I intend to endorse him, which I have already stated, but I haven’t yet. Also, coming soon. I think I need to make a to-do list.

We have two Democratic Comptroller Candidates. Michael Lange, who ran for Land Commissioner last cycle, and Savant Moore, who currently sits on the Houston City College Advisory Board.

And I’m sure we’ve already talked about how Jon Rosenthal is running for Railroad Commissioner.

Remember, I’ve listed all candidates, with websites and socials:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The State Ballot For 2026?

Competitive Democratic Congressional Primary Races in Texas.

You heard that right, not only do we have Democrats running in almost every Congressional race, but in many of these races, we have a plethora of Democrats to choose from. And that’s exciting.

Now, are these Democrats running for the new districts, the old districts, or just wherever they land? It’s hard to say. Will some of them drop or move districts if the maps are thrown out? Also, hard to say.

This entire map situation is very frustrating. Regardless of whether we wind up with the new maps or the old maps in 2026, Democrats are slated to win big next year, and everyone feels it in their bones. Which is why, I think, there are so many candidates jumping out on the ticket.

At some point, we’ll have to talk about the Republican primaries as well, but only when we’re ready for some comedy.

Because they are all subject to change with the maps, and before the filing deadline, I’m just going to tell you right now which are currently competitive and have more than one Democrat running in the primaries:

TX01, TX05, TX06, TX08, TX10, TX12, TX15, TX18, TX21, TX23, TX24, TX26, TX29, TX31, TX34, and TX38.

Some seats have multiple Democrats running that I didn’t include on this list, because I don’t think a Democrat running in a Texas primary has a shot in hell against Jasmine Crockett (TX30) or Greg Casar (TX37?).

But Michelle, why are you including Crockett in her old seat but Casar in his new seat?

Have I not articulated what a clusterfuck the map situation is in Texas, as it pertains to where and how people have filed to run, or intend to file to run? Or what’s being said in the media, or behind closed doors?

Regardless, if you know Congressional Districts by numbers, that’s weird, but you also may have noticed a few up there I absolutely want to talk about.

TX29: This is Sylvia Garcia’s district. Garcia is a solid progressive who, to my knowledge, has not sold out to the establishment and is well-adored in Harris County. Former State House Rep Jarvis Johnson has filed to run for this seat. Garcia has not yet announced her re-election, so I don’t yet know whether she plans to run again; she’s 75 years old. Is this a hand-off between former colleagues or a primary challenge?

I don’t have the scoop. But I intend to find out. I’ll let you know.

TX34: Vicente Gonzalez is being challenged by Etienne Rosas, which we’ve talked about previously. This is the first leftist challenger of a Conservative Democrat on the border since Jessica Cisneros challenged Henry Cuellar, and I think that progressives across Texas have a vested interest in seeing how this race plays out.

I’m going to stop here before I spiral into another rabbit hole about the congressional races. Because believe me, I want to. I’ve got data and flip projections sitting here taunting me. But until we get clarity on the maps, it’s like trying to play chess while the board keeps moving.

So tomorrow, we’ll pick up with Part Two, where I’ll dive into the SBOE, Texas Senate, and some of the Texas House races.

I’ll also go over where we still need candidates, where the numbers show we can actually flip seats, and where we should be focusing resources before filing season really explodes.

If the maps cooperate, we’ll finally get to connect that data back to the congressional landscape, but for now, it’s all about the races we can control.

Stay tuned, and I’ll see you back here tomorrow for the rest of the breakdown.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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