The Seat I’d Put Money On
The HD37 runoff and one of the most flippable seats in Texas.
A consultant friend of mine did a deep analysis of the Texas House races a few days back and called me up to ask what I thought. They had crunched the numbers on 27 seats and determined that they were all flippable. I don’t have permission to leak their list, but you saw my last article, which listed 30 seats I thought were low-hanging fruit, and I’ll tell you we weren’t far off from what I’ve already covered. We should probably do one more episode of ripe seats, later this week or next. Although the House Democratic Caucus is only targeting like 5 or 6 seats, I really believe they are undershooting.
This is going to be our year. For real this time. And while there are several seats that you’ll hear “are good targets for flips” and “likely to flip,” HD37 is one seat that I would absolutely put my money on turning blue. Because, first of all, HD37 never should have gone red in the first place. And secondly, 2026 is going to be a good year.
So, let’s talk about it.
The candidates.
The two candidates in the runoff are Oziel “Ozzie” Ochoa and Esmeralda “Esmi” Cantu-Castle. During the primary, I endorsed Ochoa because I thought he was the more progressive candidate. I stand by this endorsement for the runoff.
Ochoa is, pretty clearly, the candidate in this race who understands what this district actually is. When you look at HD37, you are not looking at a high-propensity, always-voting district. You’re looking at working-class families, a lot of them juggling two or three jobs, a lot of them dealing with rising costs, unstable housing, underfunded schools, and a healthcare system that doesn’t show up when they need it.
You win a district like that by speaking directly to the fact that people are getting squeezed. That’s where Ochoa stands out. He is very clear about who he’s fighting for and what side he’s on. And in a district where nearly a third of renters are cost-burdened, and incomes lag behind the rest of the state, that clarity matters.
Now, Cantu-Castle.
What she brings to this race is a decade of advocacy work, helping people navigate systems that are designed to shut them out. In a place like HD37, that kind of experience resonates because people have lived those fights.
She can absolutely connect with voters on a personal level.
The challenge for her is translation. Advocacy and campaigning are not the same thing. Voters, especially in a fast-moving runoff, are not sitting down and reading platforms line by line. They want to know, “What are you going to do for me, and how is it different from the other person?”
Right now, Ochoa answers that question faster.
Cantu-Castle’s message is broader, more general, and while that can work in a long campaign where you have a lot of time to define yourself, in a runoff, time is the one thing you don’t have. And that’s really what this comes down to.
This is about who is best positioned right now to turn out the voters who will decide whether this seat flips in November.
And if you’re asking me?
Ochoa has the clearer path to doing that.
What happened in the primary?
Let’s talk about the district and what actually happened in the primary.
Because this is where things start to get interesting.
First, the headline number that should have Democrats paying attention. Democrats outvoted Republicans in the primary by about 4,000 votes.
That makes me giddy.
In a district currently held by a Republican. In a part of the state that has slipped through our fingers twice. Democrats showed up in larger numbers than Republicans did. On the Democratic side, just over 14,000 voters participated in the primary. On the Republican side, it was under 9,000.
The electorate that decides this race in November is there. It already exists. It just has to be activated again.
Now, zoom out to the general.
In 2024, Republican incumbent Janie Lopez won this seat 55% to 45%. That’s a margin of 5,576 votes. To be clear, that’s basically the primary gap.
This district is over 80% Hispanic. More than half of households speak a language other than English at home. Poverty sits above 22%, and per capita income is under $27,000. This is not a naturally Republican district. Like I’ve said many times before, it never should have gone Republican in the first place.
This district hasn’t been consistently organized. And that’s what it needs.
And that’s why I keep coming back to this point. Flipping HD37 is about turnout.
You win this seat by going into the communities that already lean Democratic, that already agree with you on the issues, and making sure they actually show up. Bilingual field programs. Church outreach. School-based organizing. Year-round presence, not just parachuting in six weeks before Election Day.
If Democrats treat this like a turnout race, they win.
It’s that simple.
And that’s exactly why this runoff matters so much.
Because whoever comes out of it is not just going to be the nominee.
They’re going to be the person responsible for turning that 4,000-vote primary advantage into a November victory. No pressure.
The voters are there. The path is clear.
What hasn’t been there is consistent effort.
That changes this year.
Democrats already proved in the primary that they can outpace Republicans in this district. Now they have to prove they can do it again when it counts.
That means discipline. It means focus. It means treating turnout like the entire game.
Because in HD37, it is.
Win the turnout battle, and this seat flips.
Lose it, and we’ll be sitting here again in two years asking the same question we’ve been asking for the last two cycles.
Why didn’t we take the seat we should have already had?
April 2, 2026: Last day to register to vote (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
April 20, 2026: Last day to apply to vote by mail (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
April 20, 2026: First day of early voting (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
April 27, 2026: Last day to register to vote (Democratic primary runoff elections)
April 28, 2026: Last day of early voting (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 2, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 2, 2026: Election day! (City elections/SD04 Special Election)
May 15, 2026: Last day to apply to vote by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 18, 2026: First day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 22, 2026: Last day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)
May 26, 2026: Election day! (Democratic primary runoff elections)
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Thank you, Michelle! Shared on bsky about 11:35 pm.