The Talarico campaign sent 4.7 million text messages in Spanish and English through volunteers directly to voters for the primary. I contributed as a volunteer in sending some of them. They used a good texting platform and had a good team of volunteers. The success rate of this text campaign can be ascertained from the Talarico campaign in terms of what percentage of the voters texted voted in the Democratic primary.
Will you please pass on this advice to the Democratic candidate to also invest in text banking where each conversation will cost around 5 or 6 cents ? He can leverage volunteers to send them. He can also use voter scores in VAN to target the Democratic leaning voters and keep cost down.
Thanks for sharing this. Text banking has become one of the most effective tools campaigns have for reaching voters directly, especially when volunteers are involved.
Thanks for the deep dives; learning a lot. Possible future topic: Fallout from gerrymandering. Republicans targeted 5 seats: Green, Cuellar, Johnson, V. Gonzalez, Casar. We lost Doggett, kept Casar. Johnson/Allred are in a runoff, Green/Menefee in another. Veasey and Crockett won't return. How do you see the impact of the new maps?
OK, Let's talk MoCo numbers in the primary compared to the 2022 primary when Creighton was on the ballot, He had a Democratic but no primary opponent, and in the primary Creighton was +69.5. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been depressed in MoCo for a log time, so it is not surprising he won in the general election in +48.1. These are MoCo only numbers.
This year the Republicans had a competitive primary in SD04, and the number was only +43.2 for Ligon (MoCo only), or a 26.3 point change from the 2022 primary numbers. And that number was depressed by the competitive nature of the R primary. If you look at a generic state-wide comparison (say an unopposed primary on both sides in the Tx Supreme Court, which is where I pulled these numbers from) the primary was +71.1 for the R candidates in 2022 (Place 5), but only +40.6 this year (Place 8), a 30.5 point change.
Now in a special election, who knows, but with the right conditions, a +30 change is possible. It might take close to 40% in MoCo (that is a 15 point overperformance in MoCo), but given these numbers, it might just be possible (though I apply all of the usual caveats to this analysis, and I think if we get to 35% in MoCo, this state is blue).
Thank you, Michelle-- this piece was really timely, for me. I'm grateful to know we're still connected.
Shared to bsky.
Haha. Why wouldn't we be?
We made a long international call today & a lot of things got changed. Things have ben weirder ever since, lol..
The orange one hasn't blown us to smithereens...yet. Give it a few more months.
Lol
Thanks again for an informative article.
The Talarico campaign sent 4.7 million text messages in Spanish and English through volunteers directly to voters for the primary. I contributed as a volunteer in sending some of them. They used a good texting platform and had a good team of volunteers. The success rate of this text campaign can be ascertained from the Talarico campaign in terms of what percentage of the voters texted voted in the Democratic primary.
Will you please pass on this advice to the Democratic candidate to also invest in text banking where each conversation will cost around 5 or 6 cents ? He can leverage volunteers to send them. He can also use voter scores in VAN to target the Democratic leaning voters and keep cost down.
Thoughts?
Thanks for sharing this. Text banking has become one of the most effective tools campaigns have for reaching voters directly, especially when volunteers are involved.
Thanks for the deep dives; learning a lot. Possible future topic: Fallout from gerrymandering. Republicans targeted 5 seats: Green, Cuellar, Johnson, V. Gonzalez, Casar. We lost Doggett, kept Casar. Johnson/Allred are in a runoff, Green/Menefee in another. Veasey and Crockett won't return. How do you see the impact of the new maps?
OK, Let's talk MoCo numbers in the primary compared to the 2022 primary when Creighton was on the ballot, He had a Democratic but no primary opponent, and in the primary Creighton was +69.5. Democratic turnout in the primaries has been depressed in MoCo for a log time, so it is not surprising he won in the general election in +48.1. These are MoCo only numbers.
This year the Republicans had a competitive primary in SD04, and the number was only +43.2 for Ligon (MoCo only), or a 26.3 point change from the 2022 primary numbers. And that number was depressed by the competitive nature of the R primary. If you look at a generic state-wide comparison (say an unopposed primary on both sides in the Tx Supreme Court, which is where I pulled these numbers from) the primary was +71.1 for the R candidates in 2022 (Place 5), but only +40.6 this year (Place 8), a 30.5 point change.
Now in a special election, who knows, but with the right conditions, a +30 change is possible. It might take close to 40% in MoCo (that is a 15 point overperformance in MoCo), but given these numbers, it might just be possible (though I apply all of the usual caveats to this analysis, and I think if we get to 35% in MoCo, this state is blue).
It’ll tell us a lot about what we can expect in November.
Every Dem in Houston should be helping out!