What Happened In The Primary Runoff Election?

Some Republicans won big. Democrats won even bigger.

May 29, 2024

First and foremost, A BIG CONGRATULATIONS to Lauren Simmons for House District 146. She has become the new Democratic nominee and will be unchallenged in November. The Democratic incumbent rejected inclusivity, and Houston Democrats rejected her, giving Lauren Simmons a considerable win.

It was a massive night for Texas politics, and the expected repercussions will be huge. Please don’t take my word for it. Just listen to what these Texas Republican operatives had to say:

The GOP Civil War is only getting started, and apparently, we’re all here to watch their downfall. Ultimately, this only helps Democrats in the long run.

So, what happened?

Congressional runoffs.

As I write this, the Republican runoffs for TX07, TX29, and TX35 are still being counted. These three races don’t really matter, since they are all three safe blue districts (Lizzie Fletcher, Sylvia Garcia, and Greg Casar). The winners of these races will likely be called at some point today.

TX12 (Tarrant County).

Representative Craig Goldman (R) beat the Maga-extremist John O’Shea (R), in the fight for Congresswoman Kay Granger’s old seat. In November Goldman will face off against Lone Star Left friend, Trey Hunt (D). With campaigning season getting into full swing next month, I don’t yet have a prediction on this race, but I can tell you Hunt will have to put in a lot of work to flip it.

As we go through these results, you’ll notice that Maga candidates, like John O’Shea, lost big in Tarrant County last night. While that’s a blow for the current fascist leaders in Tarrant (Tim O’Hare, Nate Schatzline, Bo French, etc.), how that plays out in November has yet to be seen. One thing is clear, while Maga-Republicans have been at the forefront of GOP politics in Tarrant County, none of their endorsements or friends pulled out a win last night. It could be a sign of a turn of the tides.

TX23 (Border Region).

Congressman Tony Gonzales (R) pulled off a defeat from carpetbagger and North Carolina native Brandon Herrera (R), also known as “The AK Guy.” Herrera had some of the most depraved people campaigning for him, like Florida’s Congressman Matt Gaetz. Herrera’s run for office was disturbing, to say the least, as his entire personality was about weapons of war, and TX23 is the district that holds Uvalde.

Many in the Uvalde area were deeply offended that Herrera would move to Texas from North Carolina as a “gun influencer” just to run for office in the town with one of Texas’ greatest tragedies. Hopefully Herrera will slink back into the shadows and we won’t hear from him anymore.

Ganzales will face Democrat Santos Limon in November.

TX28 (Border Region).

Republican Jay Furman won his primary runoff last night. Furman was the far-right candidate in this race, and he’s another grifter that moved to Texas border specifically to run for office in that district. Unfortunately, the incumbent Henry Cuellar is under federal indictment.

The outlook of this races isn’t looking great for Democrats. Some local activists have been pressuring Jessica Cisneros to launch a write-in campaign. However, she hasn’t responded yet on her intentions either way. It is looking like the voters of TX28 will have to choose whether they want a Maga, grifter, racist representing them in Congress, or a guy under federal indictment who may wind up in prison.

TX31 (Central Texas).

Democratic candidate Stuart Whitlow pulled off a win in this runoff between him and Democrat Brian Walbridge. This seat is currently being held by Maga-cowboy Judge John Carter. I haven’t done a deep analysis on this Congressional seat, so I can’t yet tell you what the likelihood of a flip is. But I can tell you that John Carter is unpopular and not well-liked. We will have to revisit this race again before November.

TX32 (Dallas County).

Darrell Day won the runoff in the Republican primary, however this is a safe blue seat, currently held by Congressman Marc Veasy (D), and there is no risk of this seat flipping red.

State Senate Runoffs.

SD15 (Harris County).

For a second time, Democrat Molly Cook pulled off a win against Representative Jarvis Johnson (D). Expect a deeper dive into this race sometime in the next week, because there really is a lot going on here. Johnson, a long time House Rep threw his hat in for John Whitmire’s old seat after Whitmire was elected Houston mayor. While Cook, never having served in office, had years of community organizing under her belt.

This race became about politian vs. activist and progressive vs. moderate. In the end, the community came behind the progressive activist. Cook will be headed to the Senate to join other progressives Sarah Eckhardt, Carol Alvarado, and Roland Gutierrez.

SD30 - Republican (Far North Texas).

This was a highly contested race between Republicans Brent Hagenbuch and Jace Yarborough, each aiming to replace retiring Senator Drew Springer. Hagenbuch was declared the winner late last night. Hagenbuch received the personal endorsements of Donald Trump and Dan Patrick. Patrick also funneled $750,000 into his race. Another Maga sycophant ready to take Dan Patrick’s orders in the Senate.

SD30 - Democratic (Far North Texas).

Senate District 30 is heavily gerrymandered Republican. However, there were two great Democratic candidates fighting for this seat. Ultimately, Dale Frey (D) won against Michael Braxton (D). Frey is a fantastic candidate, who has a heavy social media presence, but he’ll need a lot of money and volunteers to win this race. SD30 is not predicted to flip, but 2024 politics are weird, so let’s never say “never.”

State House Runoffs.

HD01 (Northeast Texas).

Representative Gary VanDeaver (R) managed to pull out a win against a pro-voucher Republican last night. VanDeaver put out a statement last night that mimicked the statement of many of his peers. He pulled off a win despite the lies that were told about him in this district. While there are no Democrats running for this seat, VanDeaver will be an important player in blocking vouchers again in 2025.

HD12 (Huntsville, College Station).

The winner if this Republican runoff was Trey Wharton, one of Greg Abbott’s handpicked voucher candidates. Wharton will be a pro-voucher vote in the 2025 legislative session. Unfortunately, this is a +50 Trump district, so while there is a Democrat running here, Dee Howard Mullins, this race will be a huge uphill battle. This seat is not expected to flip.

HD21 (Southeast Texas).

Speaker Dade Phelan actually did it. He pulled off a win against a candidate who was endorsed by Trump, Paxton, and Patrick. This speaks largely on the fractures within the Republican Party and the appearance that there is at least one place in Texas where Trumpism is losing. Phelan is a crucial piece in the GOP Civil War and several far-right Paxton loyalists are already swearing against his speakership next year.

The Texas GOP Civil War will only get messier and the Republicans will only tear each other down further. In the coming weeks, expect to see from me a detailed analysis of the factions with in the Republican Civil War, as well as how Democrats can use this to their advantage.

HD29 (Brazoria County).

This seat was left open by retiring Republican Ed Thompson. Last night, in the Republican runoff, Jeffrey Barry was declared the victor. Thompson endorsed Barry, while Greg Abbott and Ted Cruz endorsed last night’s loser. A few months ago, Barry put out a statement indicating he might be anti-voucher, but it was framed as he had more questions about vouchers, pointing to the possibility he might be swayed.

Before November, we have to get into the nitty-gritty of Brazoria County. I know several activists in the area who have said that Brazoria is moving left. Most populated counties in Texas have been moving left for decades, but is Brazoria moving left faster than other counties? Perhaps. It definitely requires further examination.

The Democrat running for HD29 is Adrienne Bell. Bell is a stellar candidate who hit the ground running in her campaign, she’s had an active presence in Brazoria county and has stong ties to the community. While this district was +17 Trump in 2020, its 2024, and a lot has changed. This is one race I will certainly be keeping an eye on.

HD30 (Gulf Coast).

House District 30 was left open by retiring Republican Geanie Morrison. AJ Louderback was declared the winner of the Republican primary runoff. Louderback has signed the racist “Contract With Texas,” he received endorsements from Dan Patrick and funding from Tim Dunn. He’s the pro-voucher, far-right fascist in the race. HD30 is a +49 Trump district.

The Democrat running for HD30 is Stephanie Bassham, whose best bet is to hark on Louderback’s ties with Tim Dunn and his pro-voucher stance.

HD33 (Rockwall County).

A big loss for normalcy last night, as the far-right, pro-voucher Republican candidate Katrina Pierson beat incumbent Justin Holland. There was a ton of oppo research on Pierson that makes her look terrible. On top of that, Rockwall activists have repeatedly said that she didn’t even meet the residency requirements to run for this seat. Unfortunately, there is not a Democrat running for this seat this year.

HD37 (Cameron County).

This blue seat mistakenly was given to a Republican knucklehead last election, but the seat is expected to flip back to blue this year. Which is great for us. Jonathan Gracia won the Democratic runoff and will faceoff against Janie Lopez (R) in November. I’ll publish the details and analysis of this race soon.

HD44 (Central Texas).

Far-right, pro-voucher candidate Alan Schoolcraft won the election against incumbent John Kuempel (R). Schoolcraft is awful. He racked up Trump, Ted Cruz, Abbott, and Patrick endorsements. He’s signed the “Contract with Texas” and has aligned himself with the fascists of the Republican Party.

The Democrat running against him is Eric Norman, who seems like a great candidate, although I haven’t met him or heard a lot about him yet. While this is a +26 Trump district, recently, we’ve seen districts swing over 30 points left in special elections. Not to say that’s something that could happen here, but we should remain optimistic in the seats where far-right Republicans are looking to take over.

HD58 (Johnson County).

The Nazi Grandma beat incumbent Republican DeWayne Burns. Without a Democrat running for this seat, we should expect to see Helen Kerwin (R) sworn in and seated in the 89th Legislative Session. We don’t like Helen Kerwin, and you should expect to hear plenty more about her before November.

HD61 (Collin County).

Incumbent Frederick Frazier was a criminal. Even though Republicans knew he was a criminal in 2022, they elected him anyway. And last night, they tossed him to the curb, picking far-right extremist Keresa Richardson in his place. Richardson was endorsed by Paxton and is a pro-voucher, anti-IVF, racist, and fascist-aligned candidate.

I actually love this for Collin County, which is expected to flip blue this November. HD61 was only a +7 Trump district in 2020, and given Collin County’s rapid growth and Richardson’s alignment with far-right policies, this might set us up for a potential flip in November. The Democratic candidate in this election is Tony Adams, who will have his work cut out to win this seat by November, but I think it’s doable.

HD64 (Denton County).

Republicans in Denton County switched out one carpetbagger (Lynn Stucky) for another (Andy Hopper). Hopper has already taken many racist and hateful positions and promises to be a total fascist if he wins in November. Hopper is pro-voucher and anti-bipartisan and took family photos with the murderer, Kyle Rittenhouse.

Sick, right?

HD64 is a +20 Trump district, so few expect it to flip blue, but you know I always say, “Let's stay optimistic.” Even if the seat doesn’t flip this election, it will undoubtedly move further left, as they all do. Denton is trending left, not as fast as Collin County, but we should expect to see Denton County turn blue either in 2026 or 2028. Democrats are definitely putting in the work there and are playing the long game. The Democrat running in HD64 is Angela Brewer.

HD76 (Fort Bend County).

House District 76 is a blue district held by Dr. Suleman Lalani, and there is no risk of it flipping blue. Despite that, Lea C.S. Simmons won the Republican runoff last night. She will lose in November.

HD77 (El Paso).

Democrat Vince Perez, a former El Paso County Commissioner, won last night’s Democratic runoff between him and Norma Chávez to replace retiring Representative Lina Ortega in the 89th Legislature. There are no Republicans running for this seat, so congratulations to Vince Perez!

HD80 (Uvalde and surrounding areas).

For much of this race, it looked like Democrat Rosie Cuellar would win. However, her brother’s indictment (Henry Cuellar), likely sunk her efforts. The winner of last night’s Democratic runoff was Cecilia Castellano, who will face ex-Uvalde mayor Don McLaughlin in November. McLaughlin, as you probably remember, called Beto a “sick, son-of-a-bitch,” when he confronted Abbott in the wake of the Robb Elementry Massacre.

HD80 is a 50/50 district and the only one Democrats are at risk of losing in November. It’s time to rally around Castellano and try to hold on to this seat. She’ll definitely need a lot of help for this election.

HD91 (Tarrant County).

I’m really pissed off about this seat. Far-right Maga-fascist David Lowe unseated incumbent Republican Stephanie Klick. While all Republicans suck, David Lowe sucks especially hard. Last year, he made veiled death threats against me, he has signed a pledge to eliminate IVF in Texas, and is pro-vouchers. There is not a Democrat running in this race, so Lowe will be going to Austin in January, but we can expect to see him quickly become one of the most hated members in the House.

HD97 - Republican (Tarrant County).

Moderate Republican John McQueeney beat the far-right candidate Cheryl Bean last night. However, this is one seat we can say isn’t necessarily safe for Republicans, but it will be a challenge for the Democratic nominee to win. It was only a +9 Trump district in 2020, who knows how that will shake out in 2024.

HD97 - Democratic (Tarrant County).

Last night Democrat Carlos Walker beat Diane Symons for the Democratic nominee of HD97. Being from Tarrant County, I have previously met both candidates and am happy that this race was civil and clean. Carlos Walker has what it takes to wrestle this seat from the grips of the GOP, and it should be an exciting race to watch this year.

HD139 (Harris County).

Charlene Ward Johnson was declared the Democratic victor of this race. This seat and Johnson’s win in this seat is particularly interesting because HD139 was left open by Representative Jarvis Johnson, who ran for the Texas Senate. Charlene Ward Johnson is Jarvis Johnson’s ex-wife. So, now Jarvis Johnson is out of a job and his ex-wife is taking his seat. I have no idea if the relationship between Johnson and Johnson is friendly or ugly, or perhaps even non-existent. But it is an interesting turn of events. There are not any Republicans running for this seat, so we will see Charlene Ward Johnson in the 89th Legislature.

HD146 (Harris County).

We’ve already briefly touched on this, but Democrat incumbent Shawn Thierry last year told us all, “fuck inclusivity,” and because of that, lost her seat to a more progressive, more inclusive, and harder-working Democrat, Lauren Simmons. We should expect to see great things from Simmons in the 89th Legislature.

June is going to be a busy month.

This morning, several people contacted me and asked me to make a list of pro-voucher candidates, underfunded Democrats, and flippable seats. Because I tend to overcommit myself, I promised them all such lists soon.

In addition, the Texas Democratic Party (TDP) Convention is coming from June 6 to June 8. I plan to cover it as vigorously as I covered the GOP convention, although it’ll be much less contentious.

(Just an FYI, as I’ve been asked several times. I am not attending the convention in person this year. El Paso was just too far while having so many little ones at home. Maybe next time.)

The TDP has already been holding their temporary and permanent committees online, which you can check out here, I’ve watched some of them, but not all yet. I’m incredibly pleased with some of the rules and platform planks I’ve been seeing coming out of these committees, which I plan on discussing with you in further detail before the convention begins. There is also the matter of the SDEC elections, which are a very important piece of the TDP and how successful they are in the coming election. So, expect to see something on the SDEC elections later this week.

June is when campaigns should be getting fully ramped up, door knocking, phone banking, rallies, events, and so on. November is looking good for Texas Democrats and the GOP Civil War will only help us win more seats. Stay tuned and remember: Vote early, vote often, just vote.