Which Texas House Seats Should Democrats Focus On This Year And Beyond

The Battleground Overview: Identifying key districts.

Mar 22, 2024

In 2024, Democrats will have both opportunities and challenges in Texas. This year, they will likely flip several Texas House seats. This is a critical step in blocking the rise of Christian Nationalism and passing legislation that works for ALL the people. As Texas grows and changes, understanding these key battlegrounds becomes essential for Democrats seeking to make impactful gains in the legislature.

The Texas House of Representatives is a battleground where crucial decisions are made on education, healthcare, and voting rights. Below are the pivotal seats that Democrats should emphasize for this year and with a long-term perspective.

Democrats need to flip 12 seats to flip the House. Getting there in 2024 will be challenging, but if it doesn’t happen this year, it will happen by 2028. All of the districts below are trending blue, and if they don’t flip blue this year, they’ll move further left by the next election.

Unless otherwise linked, all the data below came from the Texas Secretary of State and the Texas Capitol Data Portal.

House District 37.

This district shouldn’t even have been red in the first place. In 2022, a Republican won this seat by 3% when voter turnout was about 30%. It was very low, but it’ll be much higher this year since it’s a presidential year.

This Rio Grande Valley district is 83% non-Anglo and a -2.2 Trump district. Two Democrats are in a runoff for this district, Ruben Cortez Jr. and Jonathan Gracia. One of them will face Republican incumbent Janie Lopez in November.

Lopez will lose her seat this year. It’s only a matter of which Democrat will replace her.

House District 52.

House District 52 is in Williamson County, which went blue in 2020 and is expected to go blue again in 2024.

Republican incumbent Caroline Harris Davila was the youngest member in the House during the last session. Since then, she married Dan Patrick’s Chief of Staff Darrell Davila and took a hard right turn. Now, Harris Davilla’s ideals align right along with Dan Patrick as pro-voucher and anti-immigrant. These positions are unpopular in Williamson County. The Democrat running against her is Jennie Birkholz. Birkholz has been showing up for the community in WilCo. Whether that’s been testifying during the legislative session or attending school board meetings, Birkholz has been there. Because of that, I think she can flip this seat this year.

House District 54.

House District 54 and House District 55 are both in Bell County. Bell County is a majority-minority county and home to Fort Cavazos (formerly known as Fort Hood). In 2020, voter turnout in Bell County was only 38%, and in 2020, it was only 58%. Bell County would flip blue if they could get a 65% or greater turnout. A friend has launched a PAC to turn Bell County blue. They promised me an interview, so hopefully, I’ll be able to get more information about them soon.

The incumbent in this seat is Republican Brad Buckley, a multi-millionaire living in a mansion on several acres of land in rural Bell County. He doesn’t represent the majority of his constituents, and he doesn’t represent his district well. Although Trump won this district by +6.9 in 2020, you have to remember that it is based on the voters who went to the polls, and when you have such a low turnout, you can’t say it’s a Republican district as much as a non-voting district.

Dawn Richardson is the Democrat running for this seat. If Bell County sees a 65% or greater turnout in November, this seat could flip. But if the turnout is low, it may be another election cycle or two.

House District 55.

While flipping HD55 in 2024 is not impossible, 2026 or 2028 is more likely. However, I wanted to include it because, like HD54, it’s also in Bell County. The Democrat running for this seat, Jennifer Lee, has several factors on her side.

Although this district went +9.9 Trump in 2020, it is mainly in a non-voting county. In 2020, while 58% of registered voters voted in Bell County, only 38% of eligible voters voted in House District 55 specifically. (Eligible includes would-be voters who aren’t registered). Registering and turning out voters in Bell County is crucial.

Another factor that Jennifer Lee has on her side is the mess on the Republican side. A far-right extremist in the Republican primaries just ousted the Republican incumbent Hugh Shine.

Republican Hillary Hickland is pro-vouchers, anti-freedom, and has endorsements from all the worst people, including Donald Trump, Ken Paxton, and Ted Cruz.

For these districts, in which far-right fascists beat the Republican incumbents, we don’t know what the Republican base will do in November, especially if Trump is behind bars by that time. Will they all unquestioningly show up and still vote (R) down the ballot? Or have the fractures in the GOP widened so much that one side or the other opts to stay home on election day?

We don’t know the answers to those questions yet, but going into the November election, we know they could be factors. Regardless, the candidates in HD54 and HD55 should be working hard to run an amazing campaign.

House District 61.

Republicans in Collin County’s House District 61 are facing a runoff. It’s between Frederick Frazier, who has faced a slew of legal problems over the last two years and was just dishonorably discharged from the Dallas Police Department, and Keresa Richardson, an anti-birth control and anti-vouchers candidate.

Despite how awful the Republicans running for this seat are, the path for Democrats is more straightforward in future elections than it is this year, but not impossible.

Democrat Tony Adams is also running for this seat. Collin County had one of the highest turnouts in 2020, and we should expect a high turnout here again. Between the issues with Trump and how terrible the Republicans running for this seat are, 2024 may give us more disillusioned Republicans than ever before. Or maybe not. It remains to be seen, but Collin County is trending blue, and if it doesn’t flip this year, it will flip in 2026 or 2028.

House District 63.

I expect House District 63 in Denton County to flip this election, even though it is a +5.6 Trump district, and I’ll tell you why.

Democrat Michelle Beckley is running for reelection. Although she has some baggage, Beckley is an amazing candidate because she can raise money and get people to vote for her. She puts in the work during her campaign. In fact, a lot of candidates could learn from her.

The Republican incumbent, Ben Bumgarner, is nothing special and serves no role in leadership or influence within the Republican Party.

House District 65.

Denton County is and has been rapidly turning blue for several years. The County Democratic Party has been working their butts off, and several grassroots organizations have been trying to keep pace.

House District 65 did go +8.3 for Trump, but here is why I think it could flip this year: because far-right extremist Republican Mitch Little ousted the Republican incumbent Kronda Thimesch. While the far-right replacing incumbents won’t hurt Republicans in every district, I believe it will hurt Republicans in Denton County.

Denton County is an urban county, rapidly trending blue. Extremists like Mitch Little are not as well-received as they would be in a rural district. Some Republicans will be angry over the ousting. Could they stay home? Could they cast their vote for the Democrat or a third party? It remains to be seen, but Democrat Detrick Deburr can win if he runs a hard campaign.

House District 66.

Collin County’s House District 66 is likely to flip by 2028. It isn’t impossible to flip this year, but it is an uphill battle. David Carstens is the Democratic candidate running against Republican incumbent Matt Shaheen.

Shaheen is a corporatist and is likely to outraise his challenger this cycle heavily because this district went +7.9 Trump in 2020. It’s not expected to make that wide of a swing without heavy capital being invested in the Democratic candidate. Again, it’s not impossible, but I think this is one district Democrats should continue working on and set their sights for the next election.

House District 67.

House District 67 is another Collin County district and Jeff Leach’s seat. Leach easily fended off his far-right and Ken Paxton-backed primary candidate but remains unpopular with many Collin County Republicans.

This was a +8.9 Trump district in 2020, but as fast as Collin County is growing and changing, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Leach only wins by a few points. The Democrat Makala Washington is facing an uphill battle. Still, this seat is likely to flip by 2028 and not impossible for 2024, but again, so much is riding on whether Trump is in jail by November or not and whether Republicans will vote for someone they hate (Jeff Leach), only because of the (R) next to his name.

House District 80.

House District 80 is a blue border district, but long-time Democrat Tracey King is retiring, so Democrats face the challenge of keeping this seat.

In 2020, this district went +4.3 to Trump, based on the 2021 redistricting. In 2022, Tracey King ran unopposed, so we don’t know if those numbers moved left or right in the last election. The Republican running for this district is Don McLaughlin, the former mayor of Uvalde. You know, the guy that called Beto a “son of a bitch” when Beto confronted Abbott in Uvalde after the Robb Elementry Massacre.

On the Democratic side, there’s a runoff between Cecilia Castellano and Rosie Cuellar. Either of them must run a hard campaign and raise lots of money to hold on to this seat. This is the only Democratic seat in Texas that Democrats are at risk of losing. Holding on to this district is imperative. Democrats can do it, but it will take a lot of hard work.

House District 94.

House District 94 is my pet project this year because it’s the only red district left in my town, and it’s held by Republican incumbent Tony Tinderholt, who we all hate.

Yes, this district went +9.4 Trump in 2020, but the Democrat running, Denise Wilkerson, is a solid candidate. I gave a detailed breakdown of the whys and hows I think she has a path forward in my endorsement of her, which you can read here:

Lone Star Left Endorses Denise Wilkerson For HD94

Michelle H. Davis

December 13, 2023

Read full story

House District 96.

I don’t think HD96 is on many people’s radars because it’s not expected to flip this election. But I wanted to highlight this Tarrant County district because it is trending blue, and our work here this year will help us flip it in a future election.

House District 96 encompasses Mansfield. The Republican incumbent David Cook, as awful as he is, has deep ties in the community as he was MAnsfield’s previous mayor. However, Mansfield is increasingly diverse as urban sprawl continues to push growth in this suburban community. The Democrat running here is Ebony Turner. She’s a strong candidate and can do a lot to push Mansfield in the right direction.

House District 97.

All of the House Districts in Tarrant County, like House District 97, have many challenges for various reasons. Tarrant County is the number one fight for Republicans in Texas, so we’ll see millions poured into Republican candidates in Tarrant County this year. Funding will be challenging.

HD97 will be a flippable seat by 2028, and it’s not impossible to flip it sooner, but it will take a lot of hard work. The Republican incumbent Craig Goldman is running for Congress, and Republicans here are facing a runoff between newcomers Cheryl Bean and John McQueen. On the Democrat side, there is also a runoff between Diane Symons and Carlos Walker. Since we don’t have official candidates, it’s hard to say what will happen. I plan to connect with both Democrats in this runoff for a one-on-one interview before the primary election.

House District 108.

This is one of the House seats I feel most confident in for a flip. House District 108, currently held by Republican incumbent Morgan Meyers, only went +0.8 Trump in the 2020 election.

Democrat Elizabeth Ginsberg ran for this seat in 2022, but as we all know, the Democratic turnout in 2022 was abysmal. However, with 2024 being a presidential election year, we’ll see a much higher turnout and a likely flip of this seat.

House District 112.

Unless the Dallas Democratic Party screws up big time, we should all expect HD112 to flip this year.

Trump only won this district by +0.5 in 2020, and this urban area has seen growth and increased diversity. The Republican incumbent, Angie Button Chen, has mainly been a background character in the Texas House and hasn’t passed meaningful legislation. The Democrat running for this seat is a superstar—literally. Averie Bishop is the 2022 Miss Texas and a viral social media influencer. She has a solid platform and over 1 million followers on TikTok. This race looks perfect for her.

House District 118.

This San Antonio District is one of the districts most likely to flip this year. It probably should have flipped last year, but Democratic turnout in midterms almost always sucks.

HD118 is a majority Hispanic district and went for Joe Biden in 2020. Republican incumbent Representative John Lujan barely won this district in a special election in 2021 and was reelected when turnout was low in 2022.

The Democrat running for this seat is Kristian Carranza, a Democratic superstar. Carranza is young, personable, has the experience, and a solid progressive platform. Check her out:

The only problem I foresee in this race is that the Bexar County Democratic Party is struggling for precinct chairs, so there may not be a lot of help from them, and much of the effort to flip this seat will have to come from the campaign and grassroots level.

By the way, if you’re in Bexar County, please consider becoming a precinct chair. You can read more about that here:

🎴 Do You Want To Help Save Texas? Please Become A Precinct Chair.

Michelle H. Davis

February 27, 2024

Read full story

House District 121.

HD121 is another Bexar County district in which Democrats have a good chance of flipping this election.

During the Republican primaries this year, far-right Republicans ousted long-time incumbent Republican Steve Allison. They replaced him with extremist Mark LaHood (who uses anti-Semitic Soros tropes in the “About” section of his website).

Because Allison was one of the last Moderate Republicans in the Texas House, we should expect this to backfire on the Bexar County GOP.

Laurel Swift is the Democrat running for HD121.

House District 122.

HD122 is another district that isn’t impossible to flip in 2024 but is more likely to be flipped in 2026 or 2028.

Bexar County Democrats face much pressure this year with HD118 and HD121, and HD122 is a +8.8 Trump district in Bexar County.

Here’s why I think it’s not impossible to flip: Republican incumbent Mark Dorazio is a pro-voucher, far-right extremist, and the Democrat running against him is an anti-voucher moderate. I believe that anti-voucher candidates will be able to win over Independents and get the swing vote. And, of course, turnout matters. There’s no question that Democrat Kevin Geary has an uphill battle this year, but if he plays his cards right, he could win big.

House District 138.

The turnout in this Harris County district in 2022 was 37%, five points lower than Harris County’s overall turnout. I know we keep rehashing how low the turnout was in 2022, but we have to ensure it never happens again.

This is another majority-minority district in the hands of a representative who constantly votes for white supremacist policies. Aside from that, Republican incumbent Lacey Hull has been embroiled in multiple scandals, including extramarital affairs with other members of the Texas House.

Although this district was +5.4 Trump in the 2020 election, Houston is rapidly growing (still), and Democrat Stephanie Morales should have a much easier time this election. Morales also ran against Hull in 2022, but the turnout was so low that Hull easily skated by.

No Democrat in Texas will have an easy campaign, but if they fight hard enough, get in front of enough people, and raise enough money, many seats can be flipped. 2024 is all about turnout.

Final assessment.

Seats I believe we can flip this year: HD37, HD52, HD63, HD65, HD108, HD112, HD118, HD121, and HD138.

Seats I really hope we flip this year, but it might be more challenging: HD54, HD55, HD61, HD66, HD67, HD94, HD96, HD97, and HD122.

You can see the complete list of candidates here:

Who Will Be On The Texas Ballot In November 2024?

Michelle H. Davis

March 11, 2024

Read full story

The path to flipping the Texas House in 2024 presents formidable challenges and significant opportunities for Democrats. Success hinges on targeting the right seats and executing robust, community-engaged campaigns that resonate with the diverse needs and concerns of Texans. Mobilizing voters, particularly in areas with historically low turnout, and capitalizing on the shifting political winds in suburban and urban districts will be critical.

Remember: Vote early, vote often, just vote.