Will The Senate Vote To Convict Ken Paxton?

Dan Patrick said deliberations could begin as soon as Thursday. A conviction will only take nine Republicans to reject corruption.

We’re now in week two of the Ken Paxton Impeachment Trial. There has been an awful lot of rinse and repeat thus far. It’s pretty much gone like this:

• A witness is called.

• The prosecutor establishes how Conservative the witness is (all of the witnesses have been so far-right that they likely each carry their own personal copy of Mein Kampf in their front pockets).

• The prosecutor reviews Ken Paxton’s shady dealings while each witness discusses what they witnessed and why they went to the FBI. (All of the witnesses have been the FBI whistle-blowers.)

• Ken Paxton’s side then cross-examines each witness, trying to discredit them and blame the Bush dynasty for Paxton’s impeachment.

Then, the Tim Dunn sycophants cleverly cut 30-second clips here and there and post them to social media out of context to “show” Paxton’s innocence. Of course, the Dunn crew’s position has dramatically evolved over this last week.

They started with, “Ken Paxton didn’t do this,” and quickly moved to, “Ken Paxton didn’t do anything wrong.” By the end of last week, they were at, “There’s no smoking gun that Ken Paxton did anything wrong.” And as of today, they are saying, “Ken Paxton was righteously taking on the feds.”

All of this is fueling the Texas GOP Civil War.

For example, check out this hilarious social media post from Denton County Republican Jared Patterson.

To be clear, there is literally no difference between Patterson and the two Republicans he mentioned, Matt Rinaldi and Jonathan Stickland. They all believe in the same oppressive policies, and each served in the Texas House, where their voting records were nearly identical.

The Republican Party of Texas Chairman Rinaldi and Tim Dunn bootlicker Stickland have created a narrative in Texas about the types of Conservatives there are.

If you agree with Ken Paxton breaking the law, you’re a good Conservative.

If you think Ken Paxton should follow the law, you’re a bad Conservative and probably a secret Democrat.

They’ve now boiled their entire identities down to supporting one man, regardless of his corruption. Sound familiar?

If Paxton is convicted, we should expect a complete split of the Texas GOP. In the long run, this will be good for Democrats.

But will he be convicted?

To be convicted, there should be 21 votes to convict. Twelve of those votes will come from Democrats. They will vote for the law. That leaves nine Republicans to decide Paxton’s fate.

During the pre-trial motions, seven Republicans voted against every single one. Those GOP members included Flores, Hancock, Huffman, King, Middleton, Nichols, and Springer. They voted against the pre-trial motions because likely what they saw leading up to the trial was how corrupt Paxton was and how he repeatedly broke the law and rules of ethics.

Of course, this is just speculative at this point, but in watching the Senators in the background of the trial, I believe these seven will vote to convict.

That would leave us needing only two votes to remove Paxton and eleven Senators left. So, the question becomes, are there two Senators out of those eleven who still believe in the rule of law?

This impeachment vote will likely be the most important vote for these Senators in their entire career. How beholden are Senate Republicans to West Texas billionaires Tim Dunn and Ferris Wilks?

It’s a coin flip at this point. 50/50.

There’s no question that Paxton is corrupt, took bribes, and has no place in public office. The questions are about the ethics of Senate Republicans.

Call me an optimist, but I’m putting my money on conviction and removal. We saw this investigation evolve and impeachment take place under a Republican House. I think there are still Republicans who adhere to the rule of law.

By this time next week, we should know one way or the other.