Finally, Election Day is here! 🥳
(Hasan Piker)
This election year seems like one of the longest in recent memory. A lot has changed in Texas this year. Starting with it being the first real election since Kendall Scudder was elected Texas Democratic Party Chair. Having candidates on the ballot in every Congressional and Legislative race has been monumental.
Then we had the primary from hell, which made it clear we need legislation to address dark money in “influencing.”
But more than anything, this election year was long because of Mango Mussolini and his rogue Supreme Court, which kidnapped Venezuela’s president, launched a war on Iran, destroyed the Voting Rights Act, attacked our elections, had ICE shoot and kill several people, and kidnap countless others, and partook in corruption like we’ve never seen before.
Now we finally get checks and balances, at least. What we do with them is a different question, and one we’ll have plenty of time to talk about.
The rise of the progressive Democrat.
Across the country, we’ve seen progressive Democrats dump the establishment, and the centrists and back candidates further left than their previous counterparts. And now, tonight, we’ll see many of them win their elections.
Here are some I’m particularly excited about:
Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
Peggy Flanagan (MN)
Melat Kiros (CO01)
Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY13)
Rev. Dr. Freddie Haynes (TX30), my Congressman
And the Texas House is also getting an influx of new progressives:
Julio Salinas (HD41)
Pooja Sethi (HD47)
Montserrat Garibay (HD49)
Junior Ezeonu (HD101), also my Rep.
Adrian Reyna (HD125)
And perhaps many more, after tonight’s results.
The battle is far from over. Michigan Congresswoman Haley Stevens made that clear this week. And while progressives will undoubtedly get a leg up in both Congress and the Texas Legislature after tonight, next year don’t be surprised if more Corporate Democrats defect or try to sabotage progress. Which is why it’s important to keep our heads in the game.
Guam.
One American election that already happened was Guam. They’re 16 hours ahead of Texas, so it’s already Wednesday there. Guam has only about 59K voters, and they don’t typically vote the same way as the continental US because they prioritize local issues over party. This election saw a lot of split-ticket voting. As of writing this:
Republicans are favored to pick up the Governor’s seat.
Democrats are favored to pick up the Congressional seat.
What to watch for before Texas polls close:
While most polls in Texas close at 7:00 pm CST, El Paso is on Mountain Standard Time, so they close at 8:00 pm CST. However, we can have a good idea of how things will go tonight based on other races around the country.
Here’s how I made the categories:
Blue Tide: Dems win 218-229 in Congress.
Blue Wave: Dems win 230-239 in Congress.
Blue Tsunami: Dems win 240 or more in Congress.
5:00 pm CST: Eastern Kentucky and Indiana polls close. The first two races to keep an eye on are:
KY06: Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R)
IN05: JD Ford (D) vs. Victoria Spratz* (R)
If Republicans win either district by double digits, it may indicate no blue wave and that Republicans are holding their ground. If it’s single digits (1-9 points), we may be looking at a blue tide. And if either of these seats flip, we’re in wave territory, but too early to determine if we’re in tsunami territory yet.
6:00 pm CST: The rest of Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, Virginia, and South Carolina polls close. Here are some things to look out for:
If Jon Ossoff (D) wins by less than 5, Democrats are not doing well in Georgia. For only a blue wave, expect Ossoff to win by +5 to +10 and Sanford Bishop (GA02) to hold his seat. A blue tsunami will include flipping GA01.
No one has their sights on Angie Nixon, except Mike from PA, who has been saying for weeks that polls are underestimating Democrats. If Angie Nixon flips this Senate seat, we’re absolutely in a blue tsunami. And if that’s the case, we could see as many as six flips from Florida.
If Democrat Annie Andrews beats Lindsey Grahms sister by even +1, we have a Democratic wave and might also see Nancy Mace (R) lose her seat in SC01. If Andrews wins by +5 or more, we could also flip SC02.
6:30 pm CST: North Carolina and Ohio polls close. Watch out for this:
Even a blue tide will flip both of these Senate seats.
NC: Roy Cooper (D) vs. Michael Whatley (R)
OH: Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)
7:00 pm CST: Polls in Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, and Maine close.
What to watch after Texas polls close:
Once the polls close at 7:00, it may take 30 minutes to an hour to start seeing results. Mail-in and early votes will be posted first, then today’s results.
At least two big blue counties will report their results late. Travis County isn’t counting early ballots until today, and its clerk says the first numbers could come between 7:30 and 10:00 pm. Bexar County won’t release its first batch until everyone in line has voted, so it will depend on how long their lines are this evening.
Since mail-in votes and early votes come in first, if they look too red or extra red, it may be because Austin and San Antonio haven’t released their numbers yet. So keep an eye out for those two.
Don’t expect any statewide calls before 8:00 pm when El Paso closes.
If major ticket-splitting happened, then Ken Paxton will be running behind Greg Abbott in Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Williamson, and Tarrant. If the GOP is splitting their ticket in these areas, it’s likely over for Paxton.
Where to watch the results come in:
Some of y’all will be glued to the TV, and that’s okay. But you can also watch the results online as they come in through:
When will you hear from me again?
Tomorrow I’ll have all the results, including down-ballot races, and for the rest of the week, we will probably talk about the data.
Texas has never been a red state. It’s a nonvoting state, and Republicans have spent 30 years making sure it stayed that way. This year, we broke the midterm early vote turnout. If we break Election Day turnout, then we may flip Texas.
Whatever the first numbers look like, don’t panic and don’t celebrate. Wait for Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso. And watch what Paxton does in the suburbs.
Whatever happens tonight, the work starts again tomorrow. The 90th Legislative Session gavels in on January 12, and the countdown starts now.
Now go vote. It’s going to be a long night.
Election Day: November 3, 2026!!!
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Gina!