A County Judge, A Secret Election, And A Three-Hour Deadline

Scared men do sloppy things.

Have I told you how bad Republicans’ internal polling is looking? It’s abysmal. Now you’re wondering, do I have special, secret access to GOP internal polling? The answer is no. However, I’ve been watching Texas Republicans long enough to know that they’re freaking out, and they are acting like they are freaking out. Plus, this year, at the Republican State Convention, State Senator Paul Bettencourt said, “This is the worst polling environment I’ve seen in 30 years.”

Since the RPT Convention, almost all statewide Democratic candidates have moved up 5 to 10 points. So, at this point, it’s a fair assumption to say that Texas Republicans are pretty much shitting themselves.

And this latest move by Greg Abbot and maybe Tim O’Hare only proves it further.

Remember, only two days ago, we talked about how Abbott called a special election for SD22, giving candidates only 48 hours to file, placing them both on the ballot twice on November 3?

Abbott also called a special election for HD93, but didn’t bother to let anyone know.

Actually, the Republican candidate for HD93 knew, but beyond that, we’re not sure who else.

Yesterday at 3:00 pm, Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Allison Campolo received a phone call from the Texas Democratic Party about the special election in HD93. They told her the filing deadline was only THREE HOURS away and asked what she was doing about it.

Naturally, Campolo was confused. “Don’t you mean SD22?” she asked. But nope, they meant HD93.

Greg Abbott, apparently, at some point in time, called a special election for HD93 and informed no one except the Republican candidate and the Secretary of State.

The Secretary of State informed the Texas Democratic Party, which then, in turn, informed the Tarrant County Democratic Party… with three hours until the filing deadline.

Every time in the history of Abbott’s governorship, before this, when he has called for a special election, he has made an announcement and a proclamation, which you can see in his press releases. No such proclamation was ever made for HD93.

To ensure there wasn’t a mistake (like a game of telephone), Campolo called the Secretary of State’s office directly, and there was no mistake. Furthermore, the Secretary of State’s office said that County Judge Tim O’Hare’s office was alerted regarding this special election.

However, when Campolo reached out to O’Hare’s office, they told her, “Our office has not received any notice regarding a Special Election in House District 93.”

Is O’Hare telling the truth? Or did he break the law?

According to Texas Election Code § 4.002:

Except as otherwise provided by law, the following authority shall give notice of an election: (1) the county judge of each county wholly or partly in the territory covered by the election, for an election ordered by the governor…

So, the statute is explicit. When the governor orders the election, the county judge has a legal duty to give public notice. That’s O’Hare, not Abbott, not the SOS. Abbott’s office notifying the county judge satisfies Abbott’s part. What happens after that is squarely O’Hare’s statutory responsibility.

Of course, it can’t be a coincidence that Abbott didn’t write a proclamation AND O’Hare didn’t notify anyone about this special election. It must be one of two:

1. Incompetence, all around.

2. Malfeasance, all around.

The Republican candidate for HD93, Alan Blaylock, filed for the special election before the deadline. FOIA requests have been made. Once we know when Blaylock filed, we’ll know a lot more about the circumstances. If he filed within hours of the deadline, like the Democratic candidate was forced to do, then perhaps O’Hare’s incompetence is just playing out, once again. But if it was days? Then it was absolute malfeasance.

One more interesting point of information. Every Tarrant County Democrat on social media is talking about this HD93 shabockle. The Republicans, including Blaylock, have not said a peep about a special election.

Don’t worry, Ericka Lomick DID make the filing deadline.

Thanks to serious acts of magic by the Tarrant County Democratic Party and the Texas Democratic Party, they got all of her paperwork filed, notarized, and the filing fee paid, with only minutes to spare.

Just like the SD22 candidates, both HD93 candidates will also be on the ballot twice on November 3.

What the heck is Abbott doing anyway?

HD93 is like Northern-Central Tarrant County, and to tell you the truth, it hasn’t been on anyone’s radar for a flip. It wasn’t on mine. It is now.

HD93

HD93 was where Nate Schatzline was sitting, but he retired from the State House to push his Seven Mountain Mandates through other means, and rumor is Abbott may select him as the next Secretary of State. That’s a position that he is so unqualified for that it’s just like Abbott to do something that dumb.

The Democrat running there is Erika Lomick.

• Apparently, Abbott thinks she can win, so give her some money if you can spare it.

Here’s the thing. HD93 is red, but maybe about as red as SD09 was.

Here is SD09, where Taylor Rehmet won earlier this year:

SD09

As you can see, ALL of HD93 is inside of SD09. Republicans didn’t expect SD09 to flip. I did. Tarrant Democrats did. Perhaps the GOP is looking at this and saying, if Taylor Rehmet holds on to this seat in November, and I’m putting my money on him doing so, then maybe the House districts overlapping this Senate district aren’t as safe.

The only one I have on my radar as a likely flip is HD97, but maybe the internal Republican polls are a lot worse than we imagine.

We have to ask ourselves. Why would Abbott try to ram in special elections for candidates who might only be seated for 60 days?

If Republicans think they’re about to lose Texas in the November 3 election, and they have until January 12, 2027, when the 90th Legislative Session gavels in, what could they possibly do during that time to hold on to or steal power?

A special session.

What would Republicans do if it was their last time as a comfortable majority to jam things up before the new session takes place?

They could take another bite at redistricting. For all we know, lawyers are locked away in Virginia drawing new Legislative maps for Texas as you read this.

They could ratify appointments while they still have the numbers. Senate confirmation of controversial appointees (like Nate Schatzline) is easier with the outgoing Senate than with an unknown post-election one.

Election law changes undoubtedly would be their priority, as they are every session. Vote-by-mail restrictions, voter roll procedures, election administration authority (stripping counties of it, as they’ve floated before), whatever they think will hurt Democrats the most.

And of course, there’s also locking in policy wins before a possibly smaller minority. Anything on their wish list that needs the votes they have right now, giving pregnant rape victims the death penalty if they get abortion care, expelling all Muslims from our state, another $10 billion for their wealthy friends to send their kids to private school. The sky is the limit.

Of course, as of now, Republicans have not called or publicly discussed a special election. But pay very close attention. We may end the year with one final quorum break from Democrats if Texas politics plays out the way it usually does.

This reminds me of one of my favorite Texas political history stories.

In the December 1873 election, Richard Coke received 100,415 votes for governor against 52,141 for Edmund J. Davis, an election characterized by fraud and intimidation on both sides. Davis, the incumbent, insisted he had a right to finish out his term, and the “Semicolon Court” ruled in Ex parte Rodriguez that the election was illegal.

Disregarding that ruling, the Democrats (Conservatives in 1873) secured the keys to the second floor of the Capitol and took possession, while Davis stationed state troops on the lower floor. The Travis Rifles, originally summoned to protect Davis, flipped and protected Coke instead, and Coke was inaugurated on January 15, 1874.

Davis locked the governor’s office door and took the key. Richard Coke broke down the door with an axe, and his supporters physically dragged Davis out of there. Davis formally resigned on January 19.

History doesn’t repeat, but in Texas it sure as hell rhymes.

In 1874, a Republican governor lost by a landslide and still wouldn’t leave the building. He locked the door. He posted troops on the ground floor like the office was a fort instead of a job he’d already lost. It took Richard Coke, the Democrats, and eventually an axe to drag him out.

150 years later, the roles have flipped (Radical vs. Conservative), but the instinct hasn’t changed one bit. Republicans have run this state for over thirty years now. And when Paul Bettencourt is telling the room this is the worst polling environment he’s seen in three decades, you don’t call a special election for a seat nobody asked to fill early because you’re confident. You call it because you’re scared, and scared men in charge of an entire state government do reckless, sloppy, arrogant things. Things like forgetting to tell anyone an election is happening. Things like maybe cooking up one more redistricting map, one more voter roll purge, one more special session nobody voted for, while they’ve still got the votes to do it.

If November goes the way it should, and Texas Democrats start winning back what’s ours, don’t expect Greg Abbott or Tim O’Hare or the rest of them to hand over the keys with a smile. Expect exactly what Edmund Davis gave Texas in 1874. A locked door, a security detail, and a man convinced that losing an election doesn’t actually mean he has to go anywhere.

So get ready. If we win this thing, we may have to be Coke’s axe. We may have to break the door down ourselves.

Because that’s how it works with people who’ve held power too long, they don’t leave because it’s right. They leave because somebody makes them.

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