Everyone Is Looking At This Map Situation Wrong

It’s not gerrymandering that’s beating us. It’s turnout.

Early in 2024, I was speaking with this young person about Texas. He had moved here not too long before that and had previously worked for Senator Ed Markey in Massachusetts, and he said it to me in such a matter-of-fact way, “Oh yeah, I don’t see Texas turning blue this year.” It was one of the millions of times that I’ve had to have “that conversation.” You know, the one that always ends with this pie. ⬇️

As the nation has embraced the “gerrymandering conversation” over the last few weeks, I’ve listened in and I’ve read the comments. And the sentiment all too often has been, “Well, Democrats can’t win because of gerrymandering.”

And admittedly, gerrymandering makes it awfully hard to win and has kept Republicans in power, but it’s now set up Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot. Because these maps that they’ve drawn, for the next election, are based on that pie. ⬆️ Yes, the one above.

Why was turnout so low in 2024, and what do Democrats have to change to fix it?

The turnout in Texas dropped nearly 10 points in 2024 from where it was in 2020, and urban areas like Harris, Dallas, and Bexar saw some of the steepest declines.

From mail ballot rejections to registration deadlines and reduced polling places structural barriers are present. Then there’s the lack of information or apathy in the process that too many people feel.

There was also widespread discontent with the top candidates on the ticket, Kamala Harris and Colin Allred.

Speaking of which, have you seen the video making the rounds of Allred getting confronted about taking AIPAC money at a campaign event on Friday?

Make sure to vote in the primary elections.

I digress.

It’s long been a criticism of mine that the Texas Democratic Party has placed too much emphasis on turning on rural Democrats, while ignoring the Democrats in urban areas. No offense to my country living friends and family, you’re important too. Our new TDP Chair, Kendall Scudder, said while running for the position that every Democrat is important everywhere. Let’s hope that this election cycle brings that about.

We need to focus on what resonates most with Texas voters and, more importantly, Texas Democrats.

Texans consistently rank economic issues as their top concern. Abortion, while symbolically potent, didn’t move enough voters in 2024. Healthcare access, mental health resources, housing affordability, and Medicaid support have cross-party appeal and speak directly to voters’ lives. In socially conservative Latino communities, especially in the Rio Grande Valley, Democrats should lean into economic justice.

Then what happens if Democrats actually show up under these proposed maps?

Then we get a map that looks a little more like 2018 than it did in 2024, and Democrats roughly hold on to the same amount of seats.

But what if by November 2026, we’re in complete chaos? What if unemployment hits 10%? What if inflation hits 8%? What if we’re at war with another country? With the government? With each other?

Literally, Trump could fuck up anything. And he will. It’ll be worse by the election, and everyone will know it. The backlash will be massive.

Democrats could overperform by 5 points. 10 points. 20 points.

But we have to work for it.

And we have to work for it now.

About the quorum and the path forward.

Today, there was a quorum. Not every Democrat was there. I’ll have more on this soon, but before I could get into the nitty-gritty and talk to everyone about the importance of a primary election, I wanted to make sure that we all knew it was going to be okay.

Because Republicans did something very, very stupid.

They based the maps on a year when 7.2 million registered voters sat home. And if we want to fuck them back, all we have to do is make sure those voters don’t stay home again.

It sounds so simple, doesn’t it?

Here’s the truth.

Texas isn’t unwinnable. It isn’t cursed. It isn’t permanently locked down by Republicans. It’s rigged, and it’s rigged on the assumption that we’ll sit out. That seven million of us will shrug, scroll, complain, and then stay home.

But gerrymanders are only as strong as apathy lets them be. When we show up, the cracks in their walls widen fast. We saw it in 2018. We nearly saw it in 2020. And if the bottom falls out in 2026, if the economy stumbles, if Trump keeps burning every institution he touches, then turnout won’t just decide a few districts. It’ll determine whether Texas helps drag the whole country back from the edge.

That’s the assignment. Not to hope the maps save us, not to pray Republicans collapse on their own, but to do the work now. Register, organize, fight for primaries, fight for November, fight for each other. Because if seven million voters don’t stay home again, the story of 2026 isn’t going to be about their maps. It’s going to be about our turnout.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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