How Important Is Tarrant County In The 2024 Election?

The future of Tarrant County, a growing Democratic stronghold.

With 2.2 million people calling Tarrant County home, it is the third-largest county in Texas. Tarrant County went blue in 2020 and is on the path to being blue again in 2024. There are several flippable seats in Tarrant County, and with the severity of the problems stacking up against Tarrant County Republicans, Democrats in this county have a lot of opportunity.

In 2020, Tarrant County accounted for 7.4% of the total Texas electorate.

Graph from Adam Carlson

This is why a higher turnout for Democrats in Tarrant County is crucial to turning Texas blue. One out of every 13 Democratic voters in Texas lives in Tarrant County.

Tarrant County is the 13th fastest-growing county in America and the 8th fastest in Texas. Like many other major counties in Texas, Tarrant is a majority-minority county.

Source

This is important when considering how each demographic group votes, which we generally know because of exit polls.

2020 Exit Polls from Texas

Turnout in Tarrant County in 2020 and what we need to see in 2024.

In 2020, 68.84% of voters in Tarrant County went to the polls, with 49.31% of the vote going to Joe Biden (a larger vote than Trump’s 49.09%). This was over a 4-point increase since the 2016 election.

Here are the presidential election results for Tarrant County over the last two decades:

Looking at the presidential elections in Tarrant County, over the last two decades, we see two things:

1. Republican votes have been relatively stable, with slight fluxuations.

2. The Democratic votes have shown a significant upward trend.

In 2000, there was a significant difference between Republican and Democratic voters, with the county leaning heavily red. However, although Republicans have remained relatively steady in Tarrant County, showing that there is a growing support base for Democrats in Tarrant County.

Here is how that looks on a graph:

This shift directly coorelates with the evolving and rapidly changing demographics. If that trend continues, and there is no indication that it won’t, Tarrant County Democrats will have the same lead over Republicans in 2032 that Republicans had over Democrats in 2020.

In 2024, if Tarrant County County Democrats see the exact same voter turnout of 68.84%, and the same % goes to Joe Biden, we would see over 430,000 Democratic votes coming from Tarrant County.

However, by improving the voter turnout and blue voters by just a few points each, Democrats could win as much as 480,000 votes in Tarrant County this year.

Based on the trends we’ve seen in Tarrant County over the last 20 years, we should expect to see something like this over the next several elections:

Hypotherical Future Graph Including 2024, 2028, and 2032

Turnout is key. Especially turning out Democratic leaning voters. The problem with Tarrant County, like the problem with so many other places in Texas, is too many people don’t vote.

Aside from the Tarrant County Democratic Party, there are several organizations in Tarrant County, who should be working on voter turnout this year.

• Tarrant County Young Democrats

• 360 Coorider Democratic Action

• Tarrant County Democratic Women’s Club

• Tarrant Stonewall Democrats

• Mid-Cities Democrats

• Northeast Tarrant Democrats

• North Tarrant Democrats

• Northwest Tarrant Progressives

• Tarrant County AFL-CIO

• Annie’s List

There are probably more, but there aren’t enough. (If you’re looking to start a political club in Tarrant County, more are desperately needed.)

Are there flippable seats?

You bet your rump there is. Due to Republican gerrymandering, they have a strong hold on Tarrant County, even though they’re fading into the minority.

In Tarrant County, several Texas House seats are within 10 points of flipping, based on precinct level data from after redistricting.

While a 10 point swing could be a lot, based on the current trends in Tarrant County, the unpopularity of Trump, and the abortion issue, we could see a lot of seats swing 10 points or more this election.

The Congressional Districts are a little trickier. Here are the Congressional Districts that seep into Tarrant County:

Then there are several county-wide seats on the Commissioner’s Court, which could be flipped this year.

The message for Democrats in Tarrant County is clear; if you show up, you win.

This includes showing up in Black, Hispanic, and AAPI spaces and showing them that Tarrant County Democrats will pass laws that will improve their lives.

Tarrant County Democrats must focus on strategic campaigning, robust voter outreach.

A challenge faced by Tarrant County Democrats is mobilizing enough resources and volunteers to compete effectively. Grassroots organizing and door-to-door canvassing are labor-intensive efforts that require a dedicated and well-coordinated volunteer base. Securing sufficient funding to support these activities, as well as investing in voter outreach technologies and advertising, is essential for a successful campaign.

Democrats must address local concerns while also tying these issues to broader Democratic values and policies. This involves listening to the community, understanding their needs, and presenting clear, actionable solutions that highlight the benefits of electing Democratic candidates.

The future for Democrats in Tarrant County is filled with potential and promise, but it requires a sustained and strategic effort to turn these opportunities into realities. The demographic shifts and growing support base for Democratic candidates are encouraging signs that Tarrant County is on the brink of significant political change.

While the path ahead is challenging, the outlook is hopeful.

The trends are moving in a positive direction, and the foundation for future success is being laid. However, it is essential to remain realistic about the obstacles we need to face. Gerrymandering, voter suppression, and misinformation are formidable challenges, but they are not insurmountable.

By staying committed to their values, engaging with the community, and continually adapting to the changing political landscape, Democrats in Tarrant County can achieve their goals. The journey to turning Tarrant County blue will require patience, perseverance, and a collective effort, but the rewards of a more inclusive and representative political landscape make the endeavor worthwhile.

Vote early, vote often, just vote.

Leading up to the November election, we’ll discuss the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous two installments:

• How Important Is Harris County In The 2024 Election?

• How Important Is Dallas County In The 2024 Election?

• 139 days left until the November 5 election!

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