How Important Is Dallas County In The 2024 Election?

The Battle for Texas: Why Dallas County Is Pivotal In This Year's Election

May 17, 2024

Did you know there are only 172 days left until the November election? So far, I’m feeling terrific about the engagement around the state and the energy being put into this election. For Colin Allred to win and for us to flip several House seats, multiple counties will be crucial for voter turnout. A few weeks ago, we discussed the importance of Harris County, and as the second biggest county in Texas, it’s time we talk about my hometown and county, Dallas.

If you missed it:

How Important Is Harris County In The 2024 Election?

Michelle H. Davis

April 22, 2024

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Dallas County is the second-most populous county in Texas and a majority-minority county. The population is 40% Hispanic, 28% white, 22% Black, and 6% Asian. Dallas County is much more diverse than Texas as a whole, being 13 points less white and 10.5 points more Black than the state’s population.

This matters, because based on exit polls for 2022 and 2020, the majority of Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters vote blue.

In 2020, Dallas County accounted for 8% of the total vote in Texas. With a population of 30 million people spread across 254 counties, each county's impact varies significantly, but few have the voting power that Dallas County wields. To put that in perspective, Travis County, the big blue mecca, only accounts for 4% of the vote share in Texas.

This concentration of blue votes in Dallas County is critical for shaping the political landscape at the local and state levels but also has the potential to sway statewide outcomes.

Dallas County’s presidential election history.

The only other county in Texas bluer than Dallas County is Travis County. Considering that Dallas accounts for double of the vote share that Travis does, it’s apparent that Dallas is a big blue stronghold critical to Texas Democrats. Moreover, Dallas County has swung left by high margins.

The margins for Dallas over the last few decades (source: Secretary of State):

2000: -7(R)
2004: -1(R)
2008: +15(D)
2012: +15(D)
2016: +27(D)
2020: +32(D)

There are two big takeaways from this.

Dallas County moved almost 40 points to the left over the last 20 years.
Democrats in Texas have been gaining momentum every year since 2000, except for 2012, when Texas swung a few points right. However, Dallas held its ground in 2012 when the rest of the state didn’t.

Following the current trend, we could see anywhere from +35(D) to +38(D) in Dallas County in November.

A comparison of voters and turnout in Dallas County between now and 2020.

In 2020, there were 1.39 million registered voters, and as of March this year, there are 1.42 million voters in my home county, which means they’ve gained 30,000 new voters since the last presidential election. This is interesting because Dallas County has shrunk in population since 2020.

It’s hard to say why since North Texas is experiencing a boom. They might have just moved to Tarrant or Collin County. It’s too early to be worried about this as an ongoing trend.

In 2020, Dallas County saw a 65.75% voter turnout, with 65.1% of the total vote going to the Democrats, for 598,576 Democratic votes.

Now, let’s say those numbers don’t change in 2024. With 1.42 million registered voters, we see a 65.75% voter turnout, with 65.1% going to the Democrats. Then that’s just over 603,000 votes.

610,000 Democratic voters in Dallas County in November is a fair expectation. Anything above that would be amazing.

Another important point to remember about the total presidential votes in 2020 in Texas:

Trump - 5.8 million votes
Biden - 5.2 million votes

In 2020, Republicans only beat us in the statewide vote by 600,000 voters. The needle has moved left in every presidential election for over a decade. In the last election, we only came within 5 points of flipping the electoral college in Texas.

What if the Dallas County Democratic Party and the other political groups in Texas all have aggressive get-out-the-vote (GOTV) campaigns and can produce a voter turnout of closer to 70%?

Dallas County definitely has the Democratic voters to make it happen. The only real question is: Will people show up?

Dallas County and the “Colin Allred” effect.

What is especially exciting about Dallas County’s perspective voter turnout in November, is Dallas County is Collin Allred’s home turf. Allred's connection to the area isn't just political, but personal. Having grown up and served as a representative here, he embodies local values and concerns, which resonates deeply with the local electorate. (Colin Allred went to the same high school as my husband, although Allred graduated more than a decade later.)

The personal connection between Allred and Dallas County can be a powerful motivator for increased voter turnout, as residents often feel a greater sense of pride and responsibility to support one of their own. (For example, my husband is excited to vote for him because they went to the high same school.) The "homefield advantage" in politics can be substantial. Local candidates typically have better insight into the issues that matter most to their communities, from economic concerns to social programs, and can communicate more effectively with their constituents.

For Allred, his track record as a US Congressman, advocating for healthcare reform and economic support measures during his tenure, has already positioned him favorably in the eyes of many Dallas County voters.

Given his existing base and the county's demographic trends, there's a momentum that could lead to significantly higher voter turnout. Residents see a figure who has actively contributed to their community's welfare and might view the November election as an opportunity to amplify their voice on a national level through a familiar advocate.

Are there any flippable seats in Dallas County for this go-around?

Absolutely. And on top of that, because of Allred’s candidacy and race (the Colin Allred effect), I expect these seats will flip. If Dallas County sees the exact same Democratic voter turnout in 2024, as they saw in 2020, two Texas House seats will flip, and it’s the only two red House seats left in Dallas County.

In my opinion, even if the voter turnout is a few points less than what it was in 2020, I still think we will see these two seats flip. Dallas County is only getting bluer.

Those seats are:

HD108:

Morgan Meyers* (R)
Elizabeth Ginsberg (D)

HD112:

Angie Chen Button* (R)
Averie Bishop (D)

There are four Texas Senate seats which conglomerate in Dallas County, two are already blue. Of the two that are red, only one is up for election this cycle.

SD12

Tan Parker* (R)
Stephanie Draper (D)

The opportunity for Stephanie Draper to flip this seat is there, but it’s going to be a lot harder than the Texas House seats. SIf the Republicans stay home this year, like many are expecting, we might see this seat flip. Draper will need a lot of funding and volunteering, so if you’re in her district, check her out.

On top of that, there are two Republican Congressional seats that seep into Dallas County. That’s TX05 in the southeast and TX24 in the northwest.

TX05:

Lance Gooden* (R)
Ruth Torres (D)

TX24:

Beth Van Duyne* (R)
Sam Eppler (D)

Congressional District 24 is really shaping up to be a potential flip this year. Democrats have the numbers to flip this seat and Beth Van Duyne is unpopular. Agian, it’s only a matter of turning out the vote. TX05 is going to be a little more tricky, as it’s mostly a rural district and the part that is in Dallas County, typically has a low voter turnout.

If Colin Allred is able to use his massive warchest and move mountains in Dallas as far as voter turnout goes, perhaps Dallas County Democrats will be able to completely expel Republicans from the county altogether.

That means, that the Dallas County Democratic Party and the various grassroots organizations should be busting their asses between now and November to make that happen. Seeing how blue Dallas County is now, I have complete faith in the political movement in Dallas to achieve great things this year.

Dallas County's role is to turn Texas blue and give us more House seats cannot be understated.

With its significant voter base and historical trend toward Democratic gains, it stands as a critical stronghold in the fight to turn Texas blue. The county's diverse demographics and growing voter registration numbers provide a fertile ground for substantial Democratic victories, not only in local and state races but also in shaping the national political landscape.

Right now, at this very moment, it is time to get involved. Every door knocked, every call made, every flyer distributed contributes to the blue Texas we want to see.

Here is the Dallas County Democratic Party website. You can sign up to volunteer, become a precinct chair, or donate.

🎴 Do You Want To Help Save Texas? Please Become A Precinct Chair.

Michelle H. Davis

February 27, 2024

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As we move closer to the November election (172 more days), the focus must remain on aggressive get-out-the-vote campaigns, strategic mobilization efforts, and unwavering support for candidates who represent the progressive values of Dallas County. The potential to flip crucial House and Senate seats, as well as to challenge entrenched Republican positions in Congressional districts, hinges on our collective efforts and commitment.

Dallas County has the power to significantly influence the direction of Texas politics. With unity, determination, and a relentless push for voter engagement, we can turn this potential into reality. The path to a bluer Texas runs through Dallas County, and it is our responsibility to ensure that every voice is heard and every vote is counted.

Vote early, vote often, just vote.