Nueces County Is Not Red And Never Really Was

The data proves Republicans are barely holding on.

Nueces County is the 17th most populous county in Texas. It’s one of the top counties that has been blue in recent years, and although it’s red now, it could go blue again for any election cycle. There’s also been massive demographic changes in this county, and with Republican numbers tanking, Democrats are poised for a massive comeback here. Let’s get into it.

Nueces County’s population changes.

Nueces County is home to Corpus Christi and had a population of about 353,178 in the 2020 census, but its demographic makeup has shifted significantly. Hispanic/Latino residents form the majority, now roughly 65% of the population (up from about 60% in 2010). Meanwhile, the non-Hispanic white population has declined in both share and absolute number. The white population dropped from 32% in 2010 to 27% in 2022.

Source

These demographic trends are important to local politics. The 62% Hispanic population means Latino voters are a crucial electorate. Historically, Hispanic voters in the area leaned Democratic, but recent elections have shown some shifts. In the 2020 presidential election, and continuing into 2022, Republicans improved their performance among South Texas Hispanics (including in Nueces). However, experts note that Hispanic turnout tends to dip in midterms, and that while Republican gains among Hispanics are real, a large portion of Latino voters in Nueces still back Democratic candidates overall.

The demographic makeup (younger and more Latino) suggests Nueces County could be competitive if Democrats galvanize those voters, but low turnout in off-years has often blunted that potential. There are a few things at play:

1. Polling shows both Trump and Abbott underwater in Texas with Hispanics.

2. There has been a lot of drama and community involvement, particularly with the local DSA chapter, regarding the desalination plant controversy.

3. We are expecting Democrats to overperform this year, and they will have candidates in every single seat in this county.

What did Nueces County look like in the last three midterm elections?

Before we get into the numbers, I want to explain the reason that we compare the midterm elections (2026) with other midterm elections (2022, 2018, 2014) is for an apples-to-apples comparison. Different groups vote in midterms vs. presidential elections, turnout is different, and there are different motivators, so comparing it to the last election (2024) will give us the best data to go on.

Source: Secretary of State

Voter turnout in Nueces County has been steadily increasing, even though it counts for a smaller share of the overall Texas pie. Voter turnout increased from 29% in 2014 to 45% in 2018 and 55% in 2022. That tells us that both the Democratic and Republican Parties in the county have been working to increase voter turnout over the last decade, and it looks like it’s working. That’s good. And seeing how this county has teeter-tottered from red to blue, I’m willing to bet that both sides are fighting hard to gain and keep power.

One metric I’ve started tracking this year is the state turnout %, because I want to understand where all the voters in Texas are and learn more about vote shares. So, in 2014, 1.20% of ALL Texas voters were in Nueces County, but you can see that number has dropped each cycle to 1.07% in 2022. For comparison, 13.61% of all Texas voters resided in Harris County in 2022.

What that tells us is that as vote shares change throughout the cycles, where organizations and statewide candidates spend their resources will also shift.

But I broke it down even further. Okay, so let me decode these funky split numbers, because I promise they’re not as messy as they look.

Every cell has two percentages:

• The number on the left shows how large Nueces was in the statewide vote total.

• The number on the right = how big Nueces was in that party’s statewide vote.

Example: 2014 Democrats → 0.46% / 1.33%.

Translation: Nueces Democrats were barely half a percent of the state’s electorate… but they made up over 1% of all Democrats voting statewide.

Democrats consistently “overperform” their population share in Nueces. That means Nueces County is more Democratic than the state as a whole, even when Republicans win it. It’s a county where Democrats are punching above their weight inside the Democratic coalition, cycle after cycle. It doesn’t mean Nueces is blue, it means Nueces is bluer than Texas, reliably.

Republicans in Nueces make up a slightly larger share of the statewide vote than Democrats in Nueces… But a smaller share of the total Republican vote statewide.

Example: In 2022, Republicans statewide cast 1.05% of their votes in Nueces, while Democrats cast 1.11% of theirs here. Meaning, GOP strength in Nueces is real, but not deep. Republicans win here because they win the state, not because Nueces is a Republican turnout powerhouse. Nueces contributes less to the overall GOP turnout than its size would suggest. Republicans rely far more heavily on rural counties and suburban sprawl, not Nueces.

For Democrats, Nueces is where they outperform their statewide averages and where late gains can meaningfully shift statewide margins.

For Republicans, Nueces is a county they win, but not a county that drives their statewide wins. It’s supportive, but not essential. Because of that, they may allocate fewer statewide resources to it this year.

Of course, the question now is what will help it flip blue in 2026?

Congressional seat (s).

These stupid fucking maps. I’m pretty sure that the new maps (2025) are happening, but it’s going to make a difference, and I’ll tell you why.

If the old maps get put back, you’ll have the TX27 Democratic candidates (a red district) working hard and campaigning in Nueces County. But if the new maps stick, then everything depends on the primary. TX34 is a blue district currently held by the Conservative Democrat Vincente Gonzalez. If Gonzalez wins the primary, he will not knock on doors and show up during the general election to try to GOTV.

However, if Gonzalez loses the primary to Etienne Rosas, I do not doubt that Rosas will continue showing up for the community in Corpus Christi, as he has been doing during the desalination plant fight. Heads up, I intend to endorse Rosas later this month, but I am not starting Congressional endorsements until after Christmas.

As a reminder, primary elections are just as important as general elections. It’s when we get to choose who are elected Democrats, long before we make sure no Republicans make it to the ballot.

State Board of Education.

We have definitely talked about this race before, SBOE02, for several reasons, but this is one seat I absolutely expect to flip in the next election. The Republican incumbent, LJ Francis, won his last election in 2022 by less than 0.5 points, making him vulnerable. This district includes all along the Gulf Coast from Cameron County to Matagorda County. Thomas Garcia is the Democrat running against him.

Member Francis has recently found himself in a public scandal. Over the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend, his angry ex-wife outed him on a right-wing podcast.

Of course, within hours, Republicans launched a primary challenger. Here is going to be the concern with this race, while I still expect it to flip, the primary challenger is state Senator Adam Hinojosa’s wife, Victoria Hinojosa, both Nueces County residents. We should expect to see a lot of money from the Hinojosa camp funneled into this race, especially since Senator Hinojosa isn’t up for election this season and may campaign for his wife.

With Democrats expecting to overperform this year, winning Nueces County isn’t just going to factor in for statewide races; it’ll also be a big factor in flipping this SBOE seat.

Texas House seats.

I know I’m supposed to say I love all elections equally and don’t pick favorites, but you guys know my number one focus is the Texas House. Because flipping the Texas House means ending Republican rule in Texas. Full stop. And the Legislature is the body that enacts the most changes in our lives, which is why it’s so important.

Nueces County has two Texas House seats. HD32 and HD34.

Let’s start with the one that should never have been: HD34, Denise Villalobos (R). First, she’s a liar. She ran her campaign on increasing funding for local schools, then she voted for vouchers, which will gut billions from public schools over the next decade. She also ran on lowering property taxes but voted with Republicans to gut schools, thereby raising property taxes.

When Republicans redrew the maps in 2021, they meant for HD34 to be a +10 (D) district. So what happened?

Well, in 2022, the Democratic incumbent, Abel Herrero, won by +15 points. Then, he retired, leaving the seat open. We all thought it would stay blue. But 2024 was a bad year for Texas Democrats overall; across the board, they stayed home.

Villalobos raised $1.3 million for this Texas House seat in 2024, which is an astounding number, even in Texas. And look at her top contributors:

• $314K from Greg Abbott

• $200K from billionaire Dick Weekly’s PAC

• $163K from billionaire Tim Dunn’s PAC

• $150K from billionaire Alex Fairley’s PAC

• Another $210K from the Republican Party

We really need campaign finance reform in Texas. Compared to Villalobos’ Democratic opponent, Solomon Ortiz, who only raised 1/3 of that, she blew him out of the water on fundraising. Villalobos won in 2024 by +9 points, but I genuinely think it was a fluke.

Democrats can rebuild turnout and stop the local rightward drift in majority-Latino precincts. Right now, Democrats outnumber Republicans in precinct chairs in this county, but just barely. They need to keep working on filling their precinct chair openings to ensure they fill the gaps.

Stephanie Guerrero Saenz is the Democrat running for this seat. And the only one I’ve heard of so far, if anyone else jumps out in the next four days, I’ll let you know. My advice to her would be to deliver a strong working-class message that includes school funding and taxes, and to highlight that Villalobos was previously dishonest about those things.

Then there is HD32. Todd Hunter.

Todd Hunter was the racist architecture behind the 2025 maps. Hunter has been the sole roadblock in fixing our electric grid and expanding clean energy in Texas since Winter Storm Uri. He has never done one good thing for our state, like all the rest of the Republicans, he just rakes in donations from billionaires and fucks the rest of us over.

When Republicans drew this district in 2021, they gave themselves a +19 advantage. Hunter ran unopposed in 2022, and as you know in 2024 Democrats stayed home.

If Democrats overperform this year and they work collaboratively on the ballot, I wouldn’t count this seat out, but it will be an uphill battle. Gabriel Marroquin is the Democrat running against him.

Nueces County is not some mystery.

When turnout rises, Democrats win. When turnout collapses, Republicans sneak through with billionaire checks and gerrymandered maps.

Everything about 2026 in Nueces County comes down to organization. If Democrats rebuild precinct infrastructure, if candidates actually show up in working-class neighborhoods, if they talk about schools, taxes, desalination, wages, and basic dignity, then this county flips back, all the way down to the Texas House.

Republicans know this. That’s why they dumped millions into HD34. That’s why they cracked and packed the maps. That’s why they’re praying that Democrats stay home.

But the numbers don’t lie. Democrats consistently overperform in Nueces. The electorate is getting younger and more Latino. Republicans are underwater with Hispanic voters. And every indicator we have for 2026 points to Democrats running far stronger than they did in 2024.

If Democrats do the work, Nueces County becomes one of the biggest comeback stories in Texas politics this cycle.

And honestly? It’s overdue.

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