Quick Election Update: Texas Early Voting Trends And Crossover Rumors

Are Texas Republicans really crossing over for Democrats?

We have Day 7 numbers, and we’ll discuss them, but first, do you think there will be a lot of crossover votes this year? You know, people who typically vote Republican but are voting Democrat this year in Texas because “fuck Trump” or vouchers?

I’m skeptical, but I keep hearing that this year, there will be a lot of crossover votes for Harris, Allred, and further down the ballot.

Even if there are a few common sense Republicans left, will it be in numbers large enough to make a difference?

• CNN: Why these Republicans think voting against Trump could save the GOP

Maybe it’s different this time? We’re seeing plenty of big-name Republicans come out and endorse Kamala Harris, Colin Allred, and even some down-ballot candidates. It leaves me wondering: are we seeing the first signs of Texas’s political tectonic plates shifting, or is this just a temporary ripple stirred up by a particularly contentious election cycle?

What do you think?

What I’ve heard from political scientists ranges anywhere from 4% to 10%, but like I’ve said, I’m skeptical. The majority of Republicans still call Russia a “hoax.” And after over a decade of Trump’s shenanigans, why would they switch now?

There are only eight days left until election day. We’ll find out the answer then. Maybe the Republicans will surprise us, and perhaps some people will put too much faith in them.

Until I see the results, I’m going to remain skeptical.

The Tarrant County GOP.

Bo French, Chair of the Tarrant County GOP—a county with over two million residents and a significant influence in Texas politics—demonstrated how unhinged and immature the leadership of the local Republican party has become. Today, he posted a so-called “poll’ “on Twitter that mocks, belittles, and dehumanizes anyone who doesn’t align with his political views. The choices were inflammatory, offensive, and frankly, beneath the dignity expected of someone leading a major political party.

This isn’t just a random post from an internet troll. This is the public voice of Tarrant County Republicans, who should be promoting their candidates and advocating for their policies, not engaging in divisive and hateful rhetoric. The immaturity and lack of professionalism in his post only serve to highlight how some in GOP leadership seem more interested in pushing petty insults than addressing real issues that affect Texans.

When the Chair of a significant Texas county GOP reduces political debate to name-calling and bigotry, it speaks volumes about the priorities and tactics of the party.

Of course, I ratio’ed him in the most hilarious way possible.

But, all jokes aside, rather than fostering unity or constructive dialogue, French’s actions further deepen divisions and reinforce the stereotype of the GOP as out of touch and hostile to differing perspectives. People like Bo French leave me skeptical about the crossover votes.

Day 7 early voting update.

In 2021, when the Legislature went wild on stripping away voting rights, it attempted to ban Sunday voting. It was directly targeting “Souls to the Polls,” a tradition in Black churches to get out the vote on Sundays after service. It was unsuccessful, but it did manage to shorten Sunday hours.

Day 7, the only Sunday of early voting, gave us an ending total of:

• 5,463,130 ballots cast

• Or, 29.33% of registered voters.

• With five days of early voting left.

I will skip the “by county” turnout today because the weekend voting, both Saturday and Sunday, was lower than the weekday voting. Last week, we saw a daily early voting total of 700K+, 800K+, and 900K+. But yesterday, the turnout was 300K+, perhaps because of the shortened hours or the Cowboys game on TV.

I’ll have a longer “by county” update on Monday’s numbers (Day 8) tomorrow.

As discussed last week, we expect urban areas to increase total turnout in week two, while rural areas will likely drop.

From

James Bedwell

:

Source

Green is up, purple is down. Bedwell’s map shows that the percentage of voters in blue and urban areas increased from Day 1 to Day 7, while the rural, red areas decreased and had less of an impact on the total statewide numbers.

Going into the second week of early voting, Texas is rapidly approaching 50% turnout, with nearly 5.5 million people having voted so far. Rurals had their weakest day so far, which is typical for a Sunday, and urban areas are continuing to catch up.

Most of Texas’ early voters show up in person (95%), compared to those voting early by mail (5%). This completely differs from what we saw in 2020 when Covid-19 was a factor.

So far, we are on track to hit a turnout of about 12 million. This projection will change as we approach Election Day.

Also, today, famed Harris County conspiracy theorist Steven Holtze, along with the Republican candidate for Texas Senate District 15 (a safe blue seat), filed a last-minute lawsuit to disenfranchise Harris County voters.

They argue that the county’s failure to maintain accurate voter rolls violates Texas law and ask the court to order Harris County to monitor and maintain its voters, remove or suspend ineligible voters, and promptly review any voter registration challenges.

See the lawsuit on Democracy Dockett.

Poll after poll shows Harris leading among those who have already voted.

Source

Source

This means one of two things:

1. Polls are badly misreading this group.

2. Independent and Republican early voters are voting bluer than we think.

We won’t know the answer until after the election when we look better at the data. But this is a strange election, and it just feels like all of the standard rules are out the window. Maybe Republicans really are voting for Democrats.

From the unprecedented early turnout to the whispers of crossover votes from disillusioned Republicans, the political landscape feels volatile, unpredictable, and maybe even transformational.

Still, for all the talk about a wave of conservative voters crossing party lines, I remain cautious.

This election may ultimately hinge on turnout in urban areas versus rural strongholds, and the recent numbers suggest that urban centers are mobilizing just in time to balance out any rural surge. If this momentum continues, we could see a shift in Texas politics, even if only by a few critical percentage points.

Ultimately, will this energy culminate in a turning point for Texas, or will it simply reinforce the divide? Only the voters can answer that question, and with days left until Election Day, it’s up to them to make sure their voices are heard.

So, while skepticism lingers, the excitement in the air is undeniable. Whether the GOP’s hold weakens or strengthens, this election will offer us insights into the future of Texas—perhaps even America.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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