Texas 2026 Ballot Watch

Early heat before the lines are final.

I just finished updating “Who Will Be On The State Ballot For 2026?” There are a few updates I wanted to discuss, but I also wanted to let you know that I haven’t updated “Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?” in almost a month, as I was waiting to see what would happen with the redistricting lawsuit, which is scheduled to take place this week.

This week, a three-judge federal panel in El Paso opened a nine-day trial over Texas’ newly redrawn congressional map, which will determine whether the lines can be used in the 2026 elections. The case is expected to run through October 10. While no decision date has been set, the judges are under pressure to rule quickly, given the looming 2026 election calendar. A verdict could be announced later this month or in early November, depending on the duration of deliberations.

So, I haven’t even bothered updating the Congressional races because it does take time, and if I’m going to have to change everything soon, then I’d rather wait. While I know some have given up and accepted the new maps will be enacted, I’m still holding out until the verdict.

Although there are some notable Congressional races I haven’t added to the list that are worth mentioning.

• John Lira (D) intends to run for the newly drawn TX35. So does Monica De La Cruz’s brother, Carlos De La Cruz (R).

• Mark Nair (D) will be running for TX13, against the drug pusher doctor, Ronny Jackson (R).

• Tejano superstar Bobby Pulido (D) will be running for TX15 against Monica De La Cruz (R).

To my understanding, a lot of people are really excited about Bobby Pulido. I’ve seen his commercials, in which he discusses the costs of living and working-class issues. That being said, I have some progressive Latino friends in that district, who sent me videos of Pulido’s podcast. Some of the things that he said in the podcast include:

• If you open a dictionary next to “Conservative Democrat,” you would find his picture.

• He’s close with Henry Cuellar and Vincente Gonzalez, and his politics align closely with theirs.

It dawned on me…

What if border Democrats have been misled to believe somehow that Conservative stands for the working class? I found these two stances very conflicting. Cuellar and Gonzalez DO NOT have a record of standing for the middle class. Both have a career of being billionaire shills and selling out their districts to oil and big polluters.

And I’m not saying that Pulido doesn’t have all of the right intentions, but we live in a state where we’ve seen the direct harm that Conservativism causes to the working class. All I’m saying is that his messaging on his commercials and rallies seems ideologically conflicting with the things he’s said on his podcast.

Additionally, I understand that he’s a Tejano superstar and widely loved, and will likely win due to that. Dr. Ada Cuellar is another candidate running in this race and shouldn’t be discounted. No relation to Henry Cuellar.

We’ll see how the race plays out. Pulido seems like a great candidate, but I question his alliance with working people if he’s identifying himself as a Conservative.

James Talarico is already kicking ass and taking names.

If you haven’t heard already, he raised $6.2 million in the first 3 weeks of his campaign. Allred raised $4 million in three months. Paxton took in $2.9 million, and Cornyn took in $2.7 million.

When Beto ran in 2018, it took him nine months to raise the same amount as Talarico, and he ultimately raised $80 million in that race.

I’m feeling really good about Talarico’s chances. I think he will win both the primary and the general election.

I have not made any endorsements in the 2026 election yet. Although they are coming soon. Aside from San Antonio Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones, whom I endorsed, the only endorsements I’ve made this year are for the special election in November:

• Lone Star Left Endorses Taylor Rehmet For Texas Senate District 09

• Lone Star Left Endorses Christian Menefee For Congressional District 18

This election is right around the corner, and it’s coupled with Texas’s constitutional election. Please make a plan to vote now. Don’t sit out. Don’t let Republicans win again.

• Texas 2025 Constitutional Amendments Ballot Guide And Vote Recommendations

Legislative races.

Due to the chaos in Washington, everyone has their eyes on DC, and it feels like most candidates are focusing on Congressional races first and foremost, even though the Legislature is where candidates can have the most impact.

Technically, the filing for state races doesn’t begin until next month and then ends in two months, but some will file their intent with the Secretary of State (SoS) early. Looking up “intents” with SoS for the Legislature, I’m seeing a lot of empty seats, but that doesn’t mean anything if they’re waiting until the “official filing date” to file.

In my county, there are seven Republican candidates, and I don’t see any Democratic candidates for any of them. However, I had the opportunity to speak with the County Chair last week, who reassured me that we have candidates for all but two of those seats. I just don’t have their names and websites yet.

I’ve been reassured by the state party and multiple organizations that recruitment efforts to make sure every single seat has a Democratic challenger are ongoing.

So, let’s talk about who we know about so far.

In the Texas Senate, we have five Democrats running for various seats who have filed an intent to run, but do not yet have a website or social media presence. So, we’ll have to talk about them another time.

To any and all candidates running for office,

Setting up social media channels is free and should only take you a few minutes. Even if you don’t have a website yet, at least do that.

• Amy Martinez-Salas (D) is running for SD22, which is my Senate District, and it is completely flippable as long as the urban area isn’t ignored. The Republican incumbent, Brian Birdwell, is retiring (good riddance), so the field is wide open.

• Riley Rodriquez (D) is running for SD28 against Charles Perry (R). Rodriquez’s campaign appears to be hyper-focused on working-class and rural issues, while avoiding identity labels (such as Democrat).

Almost all of the Democratic incumbents in the Texas Senate up for reelection have filed intent or announced their running:

• Roland Gutierrez (D)

• Judith Zaffirini (D)

• José Menéndez (D)

Except for Borris Miles (D). While Miles could run again, he hasn’t announced it yet.

The Texas House.

We have several Democrats who have announced they’re running in Republican districts in North/East Texas:

• HD01: Sean Huffman

• HD03: Keith Coleman

• HD07: Fantasha Allen

• HD08: Jeff Chavez

Some of these districts have historically low turnout, but I’m hearing murmurs of a +10 or +11 Democratic swing in Texas in 2026, and if that’s the case, several could flip. Next year, probably after the primaries, I’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the data points, and we’ll see what’s close and what’s flippable.

Sean Huffman is on TikTok, and he’s always tagging me in his videos. HD01 is currently Gary Van Deaver’s (R) district, and he’s a moderate by Republican standards, although he has not yet announced his reelection.

Here are the Democratic incumbents who have announced reelection or filed intent:

• HD27: Ron Reynolds

• HD39: Armando Martinez

• HD40: Terry Canales

• HD46: Sheryl Cole

• HD70: Miheala Plesa

• HD92: Salman Bhojani

• HD101: Chris Turner

• HD105: Terry Meza

• HD107: Linda Garcia

• HD113: Rhetta Bowers

• HD115: Cassandra Hernandez

• HD116: Trey Martinez-Fischer

• HD124: Josey Garcia

• HD136: John Bucy

Sorry if I missed anyone, I’ve been watching as diligently as I can. Someone emailed me and said Erin Zwiener (HD45) intends to run again, but she hasn’t filed her intent, and I went to her social media pages and couldn’t find an announcement. So, without those two things, I’d rather wait to talk about that race, although two Republicans have filed to run against her.

It’s worth noting that almost all of the border Dems who didn’t break quorum, whom we talked about being shitty Dems recently, have Republican challengers, but not Democratic challengers.

I’ve been speaking with some El Paso Democrats about primary challengers against Joe Moody and Mary Gonzalez. It’s challenging because many people who are politically engaged are working class and can’t afford to run for the Texas Legislature, as the cost of running exceeds the cost of living.

My argument, and always has been, is to reform the Texas Legislature so that working people can work in our state government. If that means giving us a full-time government, so be it. And if it means a constitutional amendment to raise the Legislature’s pay, call it the “End Millionaires in Austin” Act.

Retirements and competitive primaries.

We’re talking about the Democratic side. To be clear, there are also retirements and competitive primaries on the Republican side, but we’ll get into those later, when it’s time for a good laugh.

• HD41. Bobby Guerra is not running for reelection. Great. Happy retirement to him. So far, former Congressional candidate John Villareal Rigney (D) and McAllen City Commissioner Seby Haddad (D) have jumped in the race.

• HD47. As we all know by now, Vikki Goodwin (D) is running for Lt. Governor. Running for her seat is former Travis County Democratic Chair Pooja Sethi (D). No one else has filed for this race.

• HD50. With James Talarico (D) running for the Senate, this leaves his seat open. So far, running for HD50 are Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch (D), Samantha Lopez Resendez (D), Jeremy Hendricks (D), and Josh Hash (D). I’m expecting a lot of fireworks in this primary race, already with four Democrats vying for a safe blue seat.

• HD125. Ray Lopez (D) is retiring. On his way out, he endorsed his former staffer, Donovan Rodriguez (D). Also running is Adrian Reyna (D).

• HD131. Alma Allen (D) is retiring. She endorsed her son, Lawrence Allen (D), as her replacement. Alejandra Cajero (D) is also running for this seat.

But is there any drama?

There’s always drama. Some of it’s funny. Some of it is head-scratching. Some of it, I don’t have all the details, but let’s talk about it.

• HD105. Terry Meza (D) is running for reelection. Meza has always been a solid progressive. However, she’s being challenged by a Democrat named Mike Hendrix. I’m not sure the reason given for the challenge, to my understanding, Hendrix is a consultant, but the drama comes from a swiped address book. Hendrix somehow got the membership list of an LGBTQ+ church in Dallas and sent all of them campaign emails, and there was A TON of drama behind this. SDEC members were making public comments. Pastors were sending out apologies. It was really ugly, and if you’re in HD105, it's definitely worth looking into.

• HD118. John Lujan is running for Congress. Kristian Carranza (D) is running for re-election to this seat. I think she’ll win this time. But someone else is running for this seat, former Democratic House member Leo Pacheco, but he intends to run as a Republican. Considering Trump is like -32 points underwater with Latinos in Texas, I hope he chokes miserably, because he just proved to everyone he’s nothing but an opportunist.

• HD120. This is Barbara Gervin-Hawkins’ (D) seat, although she hasn’t announced reelection yet. She’s being challenged by a very eager Bently Piaz (D). Piaz was working in Josey Garcia’s office and had a VERY PUBLIC falling out with her on Twitter when he decided to run against Gervin-Hawkins. Piaz has immediately gone to negative ads. Honestly, I’m all for it. I’m tired of Democrats who smile in our faces, then take money from big oil and vote pro-oil when they think no one is looking. Now, Gervin-Hawkins is far from the worst Democrat in the Texas House, but she is not a progressive, and she has made questionable votes in the past. Piaz is tying those votes directly to her campaign finance records. I’m not offended by it, but some older Democrats in the 65+ crowd might be. It’ll be interesting to see, 1. If she even files for reelection, and 2. if these ads make an impact in the primary.

There are plenty more races I could get into, and new ones are still taking shape every week.

With two months left before the filing deadline, five months until the primary, and thirteen months until the general election, we’re only at the beginning of this cycle. The field is going to grow, the drama will intensify, and the stakes will only rise higher. I’ll keep updating as candidates announce, drop out, or throw their punches, because if there’s one thing we know about Texas politics, it's that it never stays boring for long.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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