Texas Tidbits: And The Tumbleweeds Drift On

Hopium and Texas-sized grit.

Recently, I came across a fabulous Substack article that may at least give you some hopium today. “Did Democrats actually win redistricting in Texas?” by Steven Weintraub. The article used the new Congressional maps and explained how a wave 🌊election can win/flip several seats in Texas. He goes as far as to say that Democrats have a +5 overperformance in key districts, plus we see a Democratic wave of +7 in Texas, and Democrats could gain as many as 17 Congressional seats in Texas.

In layman’s terms, that’s maybe a little bit better than our 2018 turnout.

I don’t think it’s as far-fetched as the Republicans probably want it to be. Remember how we talked about the possibilities of a “dummymander?” They stretched the districts extremely thin, basing them on the 2024 turnout, when 1.4 million Texas Democrats stayed home, which was dumb in itself.

From Weintraub’s article:

I’ve always said, in Texas, turnout is the number one most important metric. We have fourteen months to make it happen.

Speaking of which. Did you see that Trump is tanking with Latinos in Texas?

I want to see what a “wave” election in Texas next year looks like with our Legislative districts, because flipping the Texas House remains mission-critical.

But we’re fourteen months out, and here was the line to see James Talarico speak in Dallas last night. It was four blocks long. He had to speak twice, because not everyone could get in.

We have to make it to the 2026 elections. We have to make sure everyone in Texas shows up to vote. And we’ll be okay.

And the Houston Chronicle asked yesterday, “Why Texas Democrats aren’t lining up to take on Greg Abbott in the midterms?”

Benjamin Wermund, Senior Political Reporter, notes that Abbott’s approval rate is lower than ever, and the majority of the state says Texas is on the wrong track. Abbott has a huge warchest, and the article mentions the Senate race, Beto, and Gina Hinojosa.

The warchest is the biggest thing. Currently, Abbott has almost $90 million on hand and could still rake in millions more before the election.

To even be competitive in this race, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate would need to pull in $80 million, but $100 million should probably be the target.

Beto could pull that off, but Gina Hinojosa is untested. We also learned this week that Andrew White, the former son of Governor Mark White, has filed to run for Governor.

While we don’t know yet what Gina Hinojosa plans to do, if she’s considering a run for Governor, this is the year she could have a real shot. Voters are hungry for a competence-first campaign built on public schools, a reliable grid, and fundamental freedoms.

Her brand is pragmatic, progressive, and delivery-oriented. Hinojosa fits that lane in Texas. She’s an anti-voucher public-school advocate, a climate-jobs pragmatist, and a lawyer who drafts workable fixes instead of chasing headlines. If Democrats want a governor who can make the case to suburban parents, young voters along I-35, and working families from the RGV to Harris County, that’s the coalition, and Hinojosa can speak to it.

We’ll have to wait and see.

Is woke making a comeback?

Honestly, I hope so. Because I don’t know about you, but I’ve had enough of the anti-intellectual movement. It was an interesting week on the right with the podcast bros.

First, Theo Von and Shane Gillis discover and discuss John Brown.

Then, Joe Rogan was out there explaining religious liberty to Matthew McConaughey, based on what he learned from James Talarico.

It sort of feels like the upside-down. Although don’t be too disappointed if it doesn’t stick, I’m sure at least half of the people above are flat-earthers.

Matthew McConaughey has no plans to run for Governor this year. Word is that he is likely to get involved with the budding Texas movie industry that is emerging, thanks to Republican handouts last legislative session.

While the podcast bros might be tinkering with woke, one person for sure isn’t.

This week on the US House floor, Chip Roy said, “What point is there to living free if you’re not advancing toward the kingdom of God?”

Currently, Roy is the Republican frontrunner for Texas Attorney General. Although I do not think a Republican will win this year. Or, at least, I hope.

The two kinds of God-talk.

If there’s a frontrunner vibe in the Democratic Senate primary right now, it’s around James Talarico, and part of that is how he talks about faith. Talarico frames his Christianity as a personal ethic and a compass that pushes him toward humility, compassion, and service. When he talks about religion, it’s “this is how I try to be better,” not “this is how you must live.”

Chip Roy (and really all Republicans) is the mirror image. They say your freedom only counts if it advances their theology. That’s the government picking a side in your soul.

Talarico’s faith guides his conduct and broadens his empathy. Roy’s religion policies govern your conduct and narrow your rights. Texas has lived under this performative piety for thirty years. And we all know that Republicans are anything but moral and virtuous.

By the way, if you missed it last week, the Daily Mail reported Paxton has been having yet another affair. This time with a married, mother of seven, Christian influencer. Christian leaders are giving him a lot of heat for it. I mean, they’ve supported a lying, cheating crook for this long, but yeesh, can you quit making them look stupid already?

You should probably know.

Congress just voted 310-58 to honor the man who was killed on the 10th as a “courageous American patriot” who sought to “elevate the truth.” The only Texas Democrats who voted in favor of it were (the usual suspects):

• Lizzie Fletcher

• Henry Cuellar

• Vicente Gonzalez

Gonzalez already has a solid primary challenger with Etienne Rosas. Make sure to check him out and give him a follow on his socials. We might have a primary challenger for Lizzie Fletcher. I personally talked to this person, and they would be fantastic. They’re just working out a few last details in their current position, so it may be another month before they can jump in. Cuellar doesn’t have a primary challenger yet.

For newer readers, Lone Star Left has previously called for the primary challenges of all three, Cuellar, Fletcher, and Gonzalez.

Republican Congress members who have announced they are not seeking re-election (within the last week):

• Morgan Luttrell (TX08)

• Michael McCaul (TX10)

Word is, State Senator Sarah Eckhardt is considering a run for TX10.

Eckhardt is currently in a safe blue seat. If she goes for TX10, then she believes Democrats in Texas will have a blowout election next year, and that seat will be flipped. Then it becomes a question of who will run to replace her Senate seat.

Bottom line.

Maps aren’t destiny. Abbott’s war chest is real. But so is the fatigue with culture-war governance and performative piety. Voters are asking for schools that work, a grid that holds, and leaders who mind their own souls before policing everyone else’s.

None of this happens by wishing on hopium. It happens because we do the tedious work. Adopt the targets, register and chase the votes, fund the fight, stay on message, and primary with purpose.

We have fourteen months. If we organize, recruit, and show up, the “wave” will happen. And if we do that, Texas can finally be healed.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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