The Maps Are Worse Than You Think

Hope is not a strategy, but rage might work.

The Republican maps were posted to the portal this morning, accompanying HB4 by Oklahoma native Republican Todd Hunter. And the map is as ugly as promised.

You can see it for yourself here.

Honestly, I’m not convinced it isn’t a dummymander. The map maker divided these districts based on the 2024 election turnout, noting that less than 50% of eligible voters cast a vote in Texas, with 1.4 million Democrats staying home. But for argument’s sake, let’s pretend that isn’t a factor. What does this new map do?

1. It would eliminate both Henry Cuellar’s (TX28) and Vincente Gonzalez’s (TX34) seats in the RGV, making them both lean Republican. (Too bad neither of them showed up in the redistricting hearings to fight for their places in Congress.)

2. It would eliminate Congressional Progressive Leader Greg Casar (TX35).

3. It would pit Julie Johnson (TX32) and Marc Veasey (TX33) against each other for one of the two remaining Dallas districts.

4. It would eliminate Al Green’s (TX09) seat.

The following Democratic seats would be safe: Jasmine Crockett, Veronica Escobar, Joaquin Castro, Lloyd Doggett, Lizzie Fletcher, Sylvia Garcia, and TX18 (now vacant).

Under the new map, here would be the partisan swing for each district:

Here’s why I think this is a dummymander, without going into each one, let’s look at TX06, because that’s my congressional district, and I know it’s flippable.

In 2024, TX06 saw 49.67% turnout, and Jake Ellzey won by 21 points. Why? Because Democrats didn’t show up, and the candidate was invisible. But if turnout hit a respectable 65% in a presidential year, that race would’ve tightened dramatically.

Now the GOP’s own map gives Democrats a 5-point swing in TX06. That’s the definition of a dummymander. Too cute by half.

Maybe all these what-ifs don’t matter because Texas would have been blue long ago if people had shown up, and every year we hope it’s the year it will change. But if TX06 saw a 65% turnout, as they should have in a presidential year, perhaps Ellzey’s lead would have been less than 5 points. Now these new maps give Democrats a 5-point swing in TX06. Do you see where I’m going with this?

Like always, voter turnout will save us or sink us. But we can’t hope for that only to be disappointed (like we were in 2024).

What about the Texas Senate?

Admittedly, I was confused about the quorum in the Texas Senate, because in 2021, Dan Patrick changed the rules for the majority to be 3/5 on bringing a bill to the floor. I thought that included the quorum. Last night, someone brought to my attention that in order to conduct business, the Senate STILL only needs 2/3 present to constitute a quorum.

Kelly Hancock resigned to be appointed Comptroller. There are currently 30 Senators; a quorum would be 20.

There are 11 Democrats and 19 Republicans.

Senate Democrats could break the quorum without incurring a $500 daily fine, given they have only 11 members. This would make it logistically easier and cheaper in the long run.

I reached out to a few House Caucus staffers today and asked why no one was talking about a Senate quorum break. They laughed at me. Not because it was funny, but because they’ve given up on the idea.

I was told point-blank, “Senate Democrats won’t do it.”

Why the fuck not?

Why aren’t we talking about this? Why haven’t we been talking about this? Why haven’t we been putting pressure on the Senate Democrats to break quorum?

If it comes down to quorum breaking, and we don’t know that it will yet, every single Senator needs to be in solidarity with House members. If they aren’t, they do not deserve to represent Texas Democrats in the Legislature anymore. In fact, I will make it my personal mission to find primary challengers for each one.

Complacency with racism and authoritarianism should never be tolerated.

What comes next?

As expected, the House will hold one more hearing in Austin regarding the maps they’ve introduced. The hearing will be on Friday, August 1, at 10 am. The Republicans will allow 90 minutes for the bill layout and then ten hours of testimony; each person will only be allowed to testify for two minutes. So, we’re easily looking at a twelve-hour day.

The full House is supposed to gavel in today at 3 pm. After that, I would expect them to adjourn until Monday, and the Redistricting Committee may vote on the maps at the end of the Committee Friday night, to be debated on the House floor on Monday.

And the Senate?

They’re in session right now, as I write this, debating banning THC for all consenting adults in the state of Texas. You know, because freedom and liberty. 🙄

The funny thing is, adult THC users in Texas have been using it illegally probably much longer than the legal hemp industry has been around. While they may be annoyed to take their freedom and liberty back into the shadows, it’s not like Republicans are going to stop them.

Tomorrow is also expected to be another big day in the Legislature.

Tomorrow, the Select Joint Committee on Disaster and Emergency Preparedness is headed to Kerrville to take testimony from local city and county leaders about what went wrong. We don’t know what we’re going to hear. I expect the worst. I also expect another twelve-hour day.

I’ll be watching and have a full rundown for you when it’s all over.

I thought that the redistricting hearings would be bananas, and they were. But it appears we have at least another week of craziness ahead of us, so buckle up.

So here we are.

New maps on the table. Quorum games on the horizon. Senate Democrats are asleep at the wheel. And the House is ready to bulldoze over democracy before most Texans even realize what’s happening.

We are witnessing, in real time, a coordinated attempt to silence millions of voters, especially voters of color, and rig the next decade of elections. Again.

The question isn’t whether this is happening. The question is, what are we going to do about it?

We’ve got a hearing on Friday. We’ve got a possible floor vote Monday. We’ve got Senate Democrats who could stop this, but won’t, unless we make them.

So call them. Email them. Show up. Testify. Make noise.

Because the GOP’s counting on us to stay tired, discouraged, and quiet.

Let’s disappoint them.

• August 23: Last day of special session

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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