The State Of The Statewide Races, Fourteen Weeks Out

Where Talarico, Hinojosa, Johnson, and Goodwin actually stand, poll by poll.

This week, Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) dropped a poll with a few of the top-of-the-ticket races. This poll looks mighty favorable for Democrats, and the Republicans online are saying to “take it with a grain of salt, because it’s Luke Warford’s company.”

Y’all remember Luke Warford. He ran for Railroad Commissioner in 2022. Since then, he’s been working behind the scenes on polling. Now, he’s running for the Chair position of the Travis County Democratic Party. And that’s a whole other shit-show of a story, to tell you the truth, I only know bits and pieces of. From my understanding, Chair Jessica Cohen was pushed out by the elites of the County Party regarding a thirty-year-old arrest.

Regardless of what Republicans say, we should trust the TPOR poll because they are trying to build a reputation as a trustworthy polling company in Texas. And why fudge that for one poll?

Talarico vs. Paxton.

The TPOR poll has Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%.

That’s up from a Texas Politics Project Poll in June that had Paxton leading Talarico 43% to 42%.

And as long as we’re on the subject of Republicans, we should talk about the betting markets. Because it’s what most of them are relying on now, Kalshi, more than Polymarket, because Kalshi has spent a lot of money on advertising through right-wing influencers.

Kalshi has Paxton leading Talarico 53% to 47%.

And Polymarket has Paxton leading Talarico 53% to 49%.

So what does it all mean?

TPOR has Talarico up 5. UT/Texas Politics Project has Paxton up 1. Neither number is outside the other poll’s margin of error. Anybody telling you this race is “decided” in either direction, on the strength of one poll, is selling you something.

But before we hang our hat on the TPOR number, let’s look under the hood. TPOR’s own poll from May had Paxton winning non-college-educated voters by 21 points. Two months later, in this poll, Talarico wins that same group by 9. That’s a 30-point swing in a bloc that has been rock-solid Republican in Texas for a decade. Ted Cruz won non-college voters by 18 in 2024. He still won them by 6 in 2018, the year Beto came within three points statewide. A number that big, that fast, in a group that stable, deserves a raised eyebrow. It could be real. Realignment on affordability this cycle and TPOR’s crosstabs on cost-of-living trust are consistent with it.

Now, the betting markets. Kalshi and Polymarket are not polls. They measure where money is willing to bet. Low liquidity means a handful of big bettors can move the number more than a thousand ordinary voters could. And Kalshi in particular has been buying its way into right-wing influencer feeds, which means the “market” a lot of Republicans are quoting at you is partly a marketing campaign. Treat those 53-47 and 53-49 numbers as sentiment among people willing to put money on a Republican-coded platform, not as a competing poll.

And just for fun, I asked the Magic8ball if Talarico would win. It said, “Without a doubt.”

Hinojosa vs. Abbott.

Someone asked me in the comments the other day if I thought Gina Hinojosa could win. My response was, “Maybe.” The Governor’s race is a lot more complicated than the Senate race, mostly due to Abbott’s unlimited campaign cash. And when I say “unlimited,” I really mean “unlimited.” At any point in time, Abbott could call one of his billionaire donors and promise land, a government contract, or some favor, and wind up with a few million in his coffers. And he has plenty of billionaire buddies who are well aware of his decades-long pay-to-play schemes.

Money is the biggest roadblock in this race, but Abbott’s favorability is working against him. In June, the Texas Politics Project had Abbott’s approval rating at 46% approve vs. 45% disapprove. That’s up from October 2025, when his approval rating was just 39%.

This week, the TPOR poll had Abbott leading Hinojosa 45% to 42%, within the margin of error.

This is a move in the right direction. In June, a Texas Politics Project Poll showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 47% to 40%.

I think that Hinojosa is picking up steam, for sure, and she could win. But Democrats really need to show out in numbers in November like never before.

Johnson vs. Middleton.

This was the last TPOR poll that was done this week, and why they only picked these top three statewide races, and not the rest, I couldn’t tell you, but this race is particularly interesting. Nathan Johnson is very qualified to be our next Attorney General. Mayes Middleton is very qualified to be middle management in a Satanic Cabal. Middleton will spend a fortune trying to get elected, because he can’t get elected through the grassroots, and he has the money to throw around.

This week, the TPOR poll had Middleton leading Johnson 39% to 38%.

In June, a Texas Politics Project Poll showed Middleton leading Johnson 41% to 39%.

I’m definitely feeling good about the AG’s race for Democrats. Most people in Texas, even some Republicans, are fed up with billionaires (like Middleton) jacking up the cost of living while playing culture wars and sucking up all of our water. Plus, I asked the Magic8ball if Nathan Johnson would win in November, and it said, “Most likely.”

Goodwin vs. Patrick.

TPOR only put out polls for the last three races, so for the rest of the statewide races, I’m looking at older polls, but I didn’t think it was fair to talk about some and not others.

Soon, we have to talk about how important this seat is. Because if we flip the House, but not the Senate, we could still get a lot accomplished if we oust Dan Patrick and put Vikki Goodwin in this seat. Some people don’t know this, but the Lt. Governor is the most powerful person in the state of Texas when it comes to lawmaking. More powerful than the Governor, even.

In June, a Texas Politics Project Poll showed Patrick leading Goodwin 43% to 36%, which is way above the margin of error.

Five months is plenty of time to make up a 7-point deficit. I think the biggest challenge for Vikki Goodwin is that not enough people know what the Lt. Governor is or does. However, I’ve seen her campaigning all over the state. And if Democrats overperform in November by double digits, maybe it will be enough.

The rest.

Last week, Texas Monthly published an article calling Bo French a fascist in its headline. Which, I absolutely love seeing the mainstream calling a spaid a spaid. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find any public polling for Jon Rosenthal vs. Bo French.

In that regard, I also haven’t seen any polling regarding Clayton Tucker vs. Nate Sheets or Ben Flores vs. Dawn Buckingham.

Where’s that at, Texas Public Opinion Research?

Between us, I’m feeling bullish about both Jon Rosenthal and Clayton Tucker.

Every top-of-ticket race in Texas is inside single digits right now, and half of them are inside the margin of error.

Talarico’s up in one poll, down a point in another. Hinojosa closed her gap by four points in two months. Johnson’s a coin flip. Goodwin’s got work to do, but we still have time, and Texans don’t know what a Lieutenant Governor does until one of them tries to burn the state down, which Dan Patrick has done frequently.

So knock on the damn doors. Make the damn calls. Give the five bucks if that’s what you’ve got. The polls tell you this is winnable. And it happens because you got off your ass.

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