A friend of mine want to know this information. I told her long ago to follow you. I told her that I love your articles so much that I am a paid subscriber. I will share this with her but I’m angry that she isn’t following you yet so I almost don’t want to.
I’m sorry to read that you had fever. I hope and 🙏🏼 you continue to get better. I did miss your article.
Thanks. I’m sure I’ll be fine, it’s one of those virus that hit you in your throat when there’s a rapid temperature drop like there was the other day. 💙
Glad you're feeling better. That sounds like what's been trying to grab me. Winning so far - no fever. But, I missed your column last night I went to bed so early.🤞
Very interesting to see all the demographics. And knowing that Democrats are *finally* showing up for a spring primary! I've mentioned this before, but it's worth repeating: In the 10 years I was a poll worker, *95% of voters in the primaries were Republicans.* I know this for a fact because there were separate party ballots (and waiting lines!) for each party in the primaries. Dems only showed up in big numbers for (some) Midterms and presidential elections. So this is very, very encouraging overall, in spite of the individual demographics of a decline in participation among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters. I guess it took a crisis like what we are facing now to wake folks up to the consequences of blowing off primaries and local elections. —Sidebar: Feel better soon! We need you! Or as I would say in Spanish 😉 : Tu dedicación y trabajo profundo de investigación no tiene precio. = Your dedication and in-depth research work are priceless. 👌🥰
Republicans learned long ago not to rely only on primary data for turnout. I am new to this campaign game but I was absolutely shocked when I saw how Dems target turnout. No wonder we have been out of power for 30 years!
Don’t have lots of time but the Dallas County vote in the South is the best is breaking records. That means black voters are turning out. Jasmines signs are everywhere in Dallas County. Talarico signs are being taken down by the fire marshals because they don’t have the correct disclaimer on them. So much for DC consultants, all that money and you can’t get Texas law right. Sorry, you know how much I can’t stand people who don’t go here melding with our campaigns.
So far it's encouraging, more Democrats are turning out, especially women. I think back to 2024, when many Democrat strategists thought there would be a dramatic increase in turnout by women as a backlash against the Texas abortion ban, but it didn't materialize. Any thoughts as to why?
Absolutely no ground game on what voters cared about. Abortion has been totally illegal here since 2022, we lost that argument. I am not saying it is not important cause it is, but we had to lead with something else. There was no ground game in Texas in 2024. Absolutely none. You can’t win in a state with 254 counties and never talk to voters.
Liza, correct, no ground game, but also complete hopelessness in Dem Party of TX leadership. Year after year of just no opposition at all. Every year saying to myself "What in the heck are they doing? Are they getting paid to throw the election?" The majority of Texans still support reproductive healthcare access, but I think we all just gave up hope. Now with Project 2025 slating TX as the future Republic of Gilead, and with many Texas women dying and being injured by lack of reproductive healthcare, younger Texans, especially women, are saying "oh, HELL no." I would not consider going through a pregnancy here if I were in that age group. At a minimum, all pregnant women in Texas need to have a plan to run for the border if they need care in an emergency.
I know you are asking Michelle, but I puzzled on that for awhile too. Here's my best guess. People don't think strategically about politics. Voting is motivated by something concrete which will have an immediate effect on them personally. So in the case of restricting abortion, many women think, well that doesn't affect me and they just move on.
Whereas right now, in NE Tarrant County for instance, MAGA R's messed with local school districts. Not only has that had an immediate negative effect on people with children, it is easy to realize there will be an immediate effect on the quality ratings of the school district, which will have a negative effect on people's property values. It isn't that people are selfish (although they are) so much as it is they don't have the habit of thinking abstractly and strategically unless they need to.
I think it is incumbent upon candidates and political parties to thread that needle for people. And that they do it in a wholesome way, not in an ugly, deceptive way.
I'm in CyFair ISD and we were right behind Tarrant with the school district takeovers. And same - this has made a lot of non-political people and conservatives switch gears in my area because of the destruction of the school district. Our teachers are finally going to vote - it's shocking how many of our school district staff either does not vote, or voted R in the past. But they are motivated now - only took 3 cycles of batshit insane 7 Mountains cult member running and finally gaining the majority to wake them up. Kids getting hit by cars because of bus cuts really ramped up folks paying attention - that is what it took to get people to pay attention (I'm frustrated if you can't tell lol).
Good points. I remember the big Kamala Harris rally in Houston that drew over 30K people with the theme being reproductive rights. But that excitement didn't carry over to election day. Turnout in Harris was 18% lower than the 2020 election.
Not sure if you have seen the Texas Politics Project poll that came out today. My amateur self was digging into the toplines and crosstabs, but I'm a newbie at understanding polling methodology - I do understand all the math and statistics. Its very interesting - the numbers and strategy behind making sense of them, and seeing how the campaigns use the data.
I hope you feel better :). Thank you for the article - always appreciate the detailed breakdowns.
The way the news reported that poll was such that it gave it more credibility than it deserved. You would think they might have interviewed some experts and provided the pros and cons of primary polling.
This is a good example of how our "news" now makes news instead of reporting it. These context-free stories shape people's behavior without providing the tools for good decision-making. When I read your comment above, I imagined how the news would report on my four-year old grandson.
"Young person in North Texas says all children are allowed to have chocolate milk whenever they like. Even if they haven't eaten their vegetables."
I’m going to vote for whichever Democratic candidate wins this election! November will have exhausted most of the funds for Democrats, so I hope they have the resources that they need for the long run!
I would happily voted for either Crockett or Talirico! I hate they are both in the same race.
The second place person will get my vote AGAINST Cruz in a couple of years.
A friend of mine want to know this information. I told her long ago to follow you. I told her that I love your articles so much that I am a paid subscriber. I will share this with her but I’m angry that she isn’t following you yet so I almost don’t want to.
I’m sorry to read that you had fever. I hope and 🙏🏼 you continue to get better. I did miss your article.
Again, thank you for this great article!
Thanks. I’m sure I’ll be fine, it’s one of those virus that hit you in your throat when there’s a rapid temperature drop like there was the other day. 💙
Yup, I had it late January. 😩
Glad you're feeling better. That sounds like what's been trying to grab me. Winning so far - no fever. But, I missed your column last night I went to bed so early.🤞
Very interesting to see all the demographics. And knowing that Democrats are *finally* showing up for a spring primary! I've mentioned this before, but it's worth repeating: In the 10 years I was a poll worker, *95% of voters in the primaries were Republicans.* I know this for a fact because there were separate party ballots (and waiting lines!) for each party in the primaries. Dems only showed up in big numbers for (some) Midterms and presidential elections. So this is very, very encouraging overall, in spite of the individual demographics of a decline in participation among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters. I guess it took a crisis like what we are facing now to wake folks up to the consequences of blowing off primaries and local elections. —Sidebar: Feel better soon! We need you! Or as I would say in Spanish 😉 : Tu dedicación y trabajo profundo de investigación no tiene precio. = Your dedication and in-depth research work are priceless. 👌🥰
Republicans learned long ago not to rely only on primary data for turnout. I am new to this campaign game but I was absolutely shocked when I saw how Dems target turnout. No wonder we have been out of power for 30 years!
Don’t have lots of time but the Dallas County vote in the South is the best is breaking records. That means black voters are turning out. Jasmines signs are everywhere in Dallas County. Talarico signs are being taken down by the fire marshals because they don’t have the correct disclaimer on them. So much for DC consultants, all that money and you can’t get Texas law right. Sorry, you know how much I can’t stand people who don’t go here melding with our campaigns.
So far it's encouraging, more Democrats are turning out, especially women. I think back to 2024, when many Democrat strategists thought there would be a dramatic increase in turnout by women as a backlash against the Texas abortion ban, but it didn't materialize. Any thoughts as to why?
Absolutely no ground game on what voters cared about. Abortion has been totally illegal here since 2022, we lost that argument. I am not saying it is not important cause it is, but we had to lead with something else. There was no ground game in Texas in 2024. Absolutely none. You can’t win in a state with 254 counties and never talk to voters.
Liza, correct, no ground game, but also complete hopelessness in Dem Party of TX leadership. Year after year of just no opposition at all. Every year saying to myself "What in the heck are they doing? Are they getting paid to throw the election?" The majority of Texans still support reproductive healthcare access, but I think we all just gave up hope. Now with Project 2025 slating TX as the future Republic of Gilead, and with many Texas women dying and being injured by lack of reproductive healthcare, younger Texans, especially women, are saying "oh, HELL no." I would not consider going through a pregnancy here if I were in that age group. At a minimum, all pregnant women in Texas need to have a plan to run for the border if they need care in an emergency.
I know you are asking Michelle, but I puzzled on that for awhile too. Here's my best guess. People don't think strategically about politics. Voting is motivated by something concrete which will have an immediate effect on them personally. So in the case of restricting abortion, many women think, well that doesn't affect me and they just move on.
Whereas right now, in NE Tarrant County for instance, MAGA R's messed with local school districts. Not only has that had an immediate negative effect on people with children, it is easy to realize there will be an immediate effect on the quality ratings of the school district, which will have a negative effect on people's property values. It isn't that people are selfish (although they are) so much as it is they don't have the habit of thinking abstractly and strategically unless they need to.
I think it is incumbent upon candidates and political parties to thread that needle for people. And that they do it in a wholesome way, not in an ugly, deceptive way.
I'm in CyFair ISD and we were right behind Tarrant with the school district takeovers. And same - this has made a lot of non-political people and conservatives switch gears in my area because of the destruction of the school district. Our teachers are finally going to vote - it's shocking how many of our school district staff either does not vote, or voted R in the past. But they are motivated now - only took 3 cycles of batshit insane 7 Mountains cult member running and finally gaining the majority to wake them up. Kids getting hit by cars because of bus cuts really ramped up folks paying attention - that is what it took to get people to pay attention (I'm frustrated if you can't tell lol).
Good points. I remember the big Kamala Harris rally in Houston that drew over 30K people with the theme being reproductive rights. But that excitement didn't carry over to election day. Turnout in Harris was 18% lower than the 2020 election.
Texas is a big state.
It's looking like Harris Co. decided that sitting out the 2024 election was a mistake
Not sure if you have seen the Texas Politics Project poll that came out today. My amateur self was digging into the toplines and crosstabs, but I'm a newbie at understanding polling methodology - I do understand all the math and statistics. Its very interesting - the numbers and strategy behind making sense of them, and seeing how the campaigns use the data.
I hope you feel better :). Thank you for the article - always appreciate the detailed breakdowns.
It’s a BS poll. The sample size was 369, the margin of error of 5, and it was taken before the Colbert interview. I would disregard altogether.
And thanks. 💙
The way the news reported that poll was such that it gave it more credibility than it deserved. You would think they might have interviewed some experts and provided the pros and cons of primary polling.
This is a good example of how our "news" now makes news instead of reporting it. These context-free stories shape people's behavior without providing the tools for good decision-making. When I read your comment above, I imagined how the news would report on my four-year old grandson.
"Young person in North Texas says all children are allowed to have chocolate milk whenever they like. Even if they haven't eaten their vegetables."
Thank you. That was what was thinking too when digging into details. Kind of figured too when you just completely ignored it in this article lol.
Excellent analysis. Thank you! I hope you feel better soon!
Thank you. 💙
YEAH
I’m going to vote for whichever Democratic candidate wins this election! November will have exhausted most of the funds for Democrats, so I hope they have the resources that they need for the long run!
I would happily voted for either Crockett or Talirico! I hate they are both in the same race.
The second place person will get my vote AGAINST Cruz in a couple of years.