TX24 Is Sitting Right There

A flippable district, a clear path, and a runoff that will decide if Democrats can execute.

It took over a week, but last Wednesday, the AP FINALLY called the TX24 race. I really don’t know what the holdup was, but now that we know for sure who the two runoff candidates will be in the May election. And before I go any further, let me tell you up front, this seat is flippable. In fact, it may be one of the most flippable seats this election cycle. I expect this seat to flip. But the candidate has to be right.

In this particular election, I’ve also done “Meet the Candidate” articles for both candidates and have asked them the same expansive list of questions we can compare their answers to. The side-by-side answers will give us a more unique look than we have in any other race.

The two candidates:

• Kevin Burge: Meet the Candidate

• TJ Ware: Meet the Candidate

The district.

Let’s talk about the district itself. TX24 is that blue stretch ⬆️ of suburbia that lives in between Dallas and Fort Worth. It runs right along the county line and pulls in a mix of places people across DFW know well. Irving, Coppell, Carrollton, Farmers Branch on the Dallas side. Then Grapevine, Bedford, Hurst, Euless, Colleyville, Southlake, Keller, Roanoke, and parts of north Fort Worth on the Tarrant side.

This is educated, suburban, high-income Texas. Median household income sits around $115k to $120k. Median age is just under 40. These are families, professionals, homeowners, renters, commuters, people juggling school drop-offs, property taxes, and rising costs all at once.

Demographically, the district is about 60% Anglo and 40% non-Anglo. Republicans built themselves a cushion here. Under the current lines, TX24 sits at about an R+7. That means Democrats are not starting from even.

But here’s where it gets interesting.

TX24 is also a Tarrant County-anchored district. And if you’ve been paying attention, Tarrant County just gave us a pretty loud signal. Democrats overperformed by about +30 points in a recent special election.

We’ve got early indications that Latino and Asian voters are moving back toward Democrats after drifting right in 2024. We’re seeing Republican margins with white suburban voters shrink. TX24 is a persuasion + turnout district.

You’ve got younger voters. You’ve got Asian and Latino families. You’ve got highly educated suburban households who are paying attention but not always voting the same way in every cycle. They are movable.

But only if you talk to them about what actually affects their lives.

We’re talking about women’s rights. Health care costs. Public education. Book bans. Property taxes. Whether the government functions or spends all day chasing culture war headlines.

So what does it actually take to flip TX24?

First, Democrats have to shave down the Republican margins in the Tarrant County portion. Second, they have to run up the score in the Dallas County slice. That’s where the base has to show up and then some. And third, they have to hold on to the turnout gains we are starting to see in off-year elections and special elections. That momentum cannot drop off in November.

If those three things happen at the same time, this seat flips.

Republicans know it. Their numbers are slipping in the suburbs. Their message is narrowing. And in districts like this one, that matters more than anywhere else.

So yes, TX24 is a climb. But it is not a long shot. The math works. The coalition exists.

The only question now is whether the candidate can actually execute it.

The Democratic primary.

Kevin Burge came in first place, just a few points shy of the threshold he needed to avoid a runoff altogether. The second- and third-place runners-up were very close. It’s possible there was some recount happening, but I haven’t seen any news stories directly about it. However, last week, TJ Ware was declared the second-placed winner.

During the primary, some ugly divorce videos were leaked, leading to allegations against TJ Ware of abuse. Ware has directly addressed these allegations on his social media platforms. I did see him at the Tarrant County Democratic Convention, he had his family with him. They seemed happy.

Both Kevin Burge and TJ Ware come out of working-class backgrounds. Both served in the Marine Corps. Both built their adult lives around service, whether that’s national security, veterans’ advocacy, or fighting corporate abuse. And both are running on the same core argument. The system is not working for regular people.

But how they got there and how they talk about it are where the contrast starts to show.

Burge’s campaign reads as if it were written by someone who has operated within the system and walked away with a clear conclusion. His experience runs through the military, intelligence, and even the White House. His pitch is structured, policy-heavy, and very direct about what he wants to do. Medicare for All. Tuition-free college. Housing affordability. Reproductive rights.

Ware, on the other hand, is running from the outside in.

His story leans hard into lived experience. War. Recovery. The VA system. Small business. Getting in the trenches with homeowners after disasters and seeing how corporations actually operate when people are at their most vulnerable.

His politics feel more personal, more reactive to what he’s seen up close. When he talks about fairness or accountability, it’s grounded in specific fights he’s already been in, not just policy proposals on paper.

Where Burge is structured, Ware is relational. Where Burge is policy-forward, Ware is story-forward. Neither approach is wrong.

But in TX24, the voters are deciding late, splitting tickets, and paying attention to tone as much as substance. Voters want to know not just what you believe, but how you operate, how you communicate, and whether you feel grounded in their reality.

So the real contrast here is execution.

Do voters want the candidate who presents as experienced, steady, and system-fluent, ready to step into Congress with a fully built policy agenda?

Or do they want the candidate who feels closer to the ground, shaped by lived experience, and speaking from the perspective of someone who’s been on the receiving end of the system’s failures?

That’s the choice this runoff is setting up.

Their side-by-side Q& As.

When you look at the side-by-side Q&A, a pattern shows up almost immediately.

Kevin Burge answers as if he already has a governing framework in his head. His responses are fully formed and anchored in specific policy outcomes. On healthcare, it’s Medicare for All, full stop. On student debt, it’s reinstating Biden’s SAVE Plan and moving toward publicly funded higher education. On abortion, it’s yes, codify it, repeal Hyde. On the Supreme Court, it’s expansion and term limits, with numbers attached.

He is telling you exactly where he stands and what he would try to do in office.

Full transparency, these were the only questions (besides the bonus questions) that Burge chose to answer. So, they may be really solid parts of his platform that he’s already put a lot of thought into.

TJ Ware’s answers read differently. He often starts from agreement with the problem, but stops short of locking himself into a specific solution. On healthcare, he supports expanded access, but is not fully committed to Medicare for All. On student debt, he agrees the system is broken, but wants to see specifics. On the courts, he’s open to both expansion and term limits, but again, with qualifiers. Even when he lands in a place similar to Burge’s, the path there is less defined.

You can see it clearly on something like abortion rights. Burge frames it as an urgent policy failure that needs immediate federal action. Ware frames it in terms of individual freedom and government overreach. They arrive in a similar place, but they take different routes, one legislative, one philosophical.

Same with voting rights and statehood. Burge leans into structural fixes, representation, and federal action. Ware broadens it into a larger conversation about fairness, self-determination, and expanding access across the board.

So what does that actually mean in a race like TX24?

This is a district full of high-information voters who are used to evaluating candidates the way they evaluate everything else in their lives. They are looking for signals. Specificity is a signal. Confidence is a signal. But so is authenticity. So is independence. So is whether someone sounds like they’re thinking in real time versus reciting a platform.

Burge is giving voters a clear, structured blueprint. Ware is giving voters a values-based framework with room to adapt. Again, neither is inherently better. But they do different things politically.

The TX24 runoff will be about trust.

Trust in who can actually win this seat. Trust in who can hold it. Trust in who can navigate a shifting district. Because the opportunity here is real.

The conditions are lining up in a way we don’t always get in Texas. But none of that matters if the candidate doesn’t match the moment.

This is a race you win by speaking clearly enough to earn trust. By turning out your base without losing the middle. By understanding that persuasion here is not optional, it’s the whole game.

Both of these candidates are offering voters something different.

If they get this right, this seat flips.

• April 2, 2026: Last day to register to vote (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• April 20, 2026: Last day to apply to vote by mail (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• April 20, 2026: First day of early voting (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• April 27, 2026: Last day to register to vote (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• April 28, 2026: Last day of early voting (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• May 2, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• May 2, 2026: Election day! (City elections/SD04 Special Election)

• May 15, 2026: Last day to apply to vote by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• May 18, 2026: First day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• May 22, 2026: Last day of early voting (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• May 26, 2026: Last day to receive ballot by mail (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• May 26, 2026: Election day! (Democratic primary runoff elections)

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

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• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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